Combined Market Overview

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Combined Market Overview

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Presented by Mr. Naim Khan-Turk – Associate Director CB Richard Ellis (Vietnam)

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Nội dung Text: Combined Market Overview

  1. COMBINED MARKET OVERVIEW Presented by Mr. Naim Khan-Turk – Associate Director CB Richard Ellis (Vietnam) Quarter 4 2007
  2. Agenda HCMC: HA NOI: OFFICE MARKET OFFICE MARKET CONDOMINIUMS SERVICED APARTMENT SERVICED MARKET APARTMENT MARKET HOTEL MARKET RETAIL MARKET RETAIL MARKET HOTEL MARKET RESIDENTIAL MARKET INDUSTRIAL MARKET OUTLOOK CB Richard Ellis | Page 2
  3. WHAT HAS BEEN DRIVING THE PROPERTY MARKET SINCE 2003? • Limited capital markets • An emerging condo market in Hanoi and HCMC • Conspicuous consumption • Ability to borrow from local banks at 10-11% per annum • Consistently rising GDP and FDI • China + 1, APEC, the Stock Market and entry to WTO has put Vietnam on the radar screen, coupled with the ML reports and the Euro Money Conference in March 2006/2007 CB Richard Ellis | Page 3
  4. MAP OF VIETNAM CB Richard Ellis | Page 4
  5. VIETNAM TODAY • No Starbucks and No MacDonalds • World leaders in pepper, coffee, cashew, shoes, fish/prawns, oil & gas exports • No shortage of land, just good sites • “If you build it, they will come” no longer exists • Many similarities to China in the early 90s in terms of work ethic, chaos on the streets, migration of work force and market driven decisions • Traffic, complete absence of infrastructure, MRT/MTR, bridges and tunnels CB Richard Ellis | Page 5
  6. DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITIES Source: Saigon Times CB Richard Ellis | Page 6
  7. PROPOSED MRT LINES HCMC CB Richard Ellis | Page 7
  8. VIETNAM AT A GLANCE CB Richard Ellis | Page 8
  9. WTO CB Richard Ellis | Page 9
  10. HO CHI MINH CITY Source:CBRE CB Richard Ellis | Page 10
  11. AVERAGE REGIONAL RENTAL AND OCCUPANCY COST PRIME OFFICE RENTS AND OCCUPANCY COST IN KEY ASIAN CITIES (As of Q4.2007) Avarage market rents Total occupancy cost (US$/sqm/month) (US$/sqm/month) (unit: US$) 141 126 90.5 77 75 76 76 63 48 48 50 45 56 39 41 45 37 36 29 28.5 24.5 23 22 23 24 21.5 26 21.5 21.5 13 14 16.516.5 8.5 Hong Kong Bankok Beijing Tokyo Jakarta Manila Lumpur Guangzhou Shanghai Taipei Seoul N ew Delhi Sydney HCMC Bangalore Melbourne Singapore Kuala (Source: CBRE) Note: According to CBRE research all over the world during 2007, HCMC is ranked as 45th in the top 50 cities that offer the highest office asking rents all over the world 13th in the top 50 cities that have the highest growth rate on office rental rates CB Richard Ellis | Page 11
  12. HCMC OFFICE MARKET - HCMC HCMC Prime Office Stock sqm (at 2007 ends) 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 Q1/04 Q2/04 Q3/04 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Q2/07 Q3/07 Q4/07 Office Stock at the beginning of the quarter New supply during the quarter Total 165,381 sm office space come on line during 2007 No grade A 62,965 sm Grade B 102,416 sm Grade C CB Richard Ellis | Page 12
  13. Index (Q1 1998 = 100) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Q1 98 Source:CBRE Q2 98 Q3 98 CB Richard Ellis | Page 13 Q4 98 Q1 99 Q2 99 Q3 99 Q4 99 Q1 00 Q2 00 Q3 00 Q4 00 Q1 01 Q2 01 Q3 01 Q4 01 Q1 02 Q2 02 US-VN Bilateral Q3 02 Trade Agreement Q4 02 Q1 03 Q2 03 Q3 03 Q4 03 Q1 04 Q2 04 Q3 04 Q4 04 Prime Office Rental Index Q1 05 Q2 05 HCMC - OFFICE MARKET Q3 05 Q4 05 Q1 06 • Growing demand Q2 06 Q3 06 • Delays in new supply Q4 06 Q1.07 Q2.07 WTO Q3.07 And the upward trend will continue due to: Q4.07
  14. HCMC - OFFICE MARKET Take up and vacancy r ate of H C MC of fice buildings Q4.2007 % 80,000 8.0% 60,000 6.0% 40,000 4.0% 20,000 2.0% - 0.0% Take-up (Sqm) Vacancy Rate (%) CB Richard Ellis | Page 14
  15. CB Richard Ellis | Page 15
  16. HCMC - OFFICE MARKET NEW MAJOR OFFICE BUILDINGS COMPLETED DURING 2007 E-Town 2 Saigon Finance Petro VN, Citilight, Tan Binh Dist Centre, Dist. 1 Dist. 1 Dist. 1 (27,000 sm) (10,692 sm) (10,780 sm) (14,493 sm) Total Supply in 2007 165,381 sm CB Richard Ellis | Page 16
  17. HCMC OFFICE MARKET – Rental Rates Rent trends of Grade A Q1 - 2006 $23.00 Q1/06 - Q1/07 uni t: US $ 32 Q1 - 2007 $32.00 23 grow th rate 39% Increase of 39% Q 1/ 06 Q 1/ 07 Occupancy 100% * Note : r e nts ar e on ne t ar e a e xcl u di ng S .C and VAT Rents trends of Grade A Q1/07 - Q1/08 63 unit: US$ Q1 – 2008 $63.00 growth rate 97% 32 Increase of 97% in comparison to Q1.07 Occupancy 100% Q1/07 Q1/08 Note : re nts are on ne t are a e xclu ding S .C and VAT CB Richard Ellis | Page 17
  18. HCMC OFFICE MARKET – Rental Rates Rent trends of Grade B Q1/06 - Q1/07 Q1 - 2006 $22.00 u n it:U S$ gro wth rate 26% 26. 5 Q1 - 2007 $26.50 21 Increase of 26% Q1/2006 Q1/2007 Occupancy 99% * Note: rents are on net area excluding S.C and VAT Rent trends of Grade B Q1/07 - Q1/08 uni t : US $ Q1 - 2008 $40 gro wth rate 51% 40 Increase of 51% in 26. 5 comparison to Q1.07 Occupancy 100% Q1/2007 Q1/2008 * Note: rents are on net area excluding S.C and VAT CB Richard Ellis | Page 18
  19. HCMC OFFICE MARKET – Rental Rates Rent trends of Grade C Q1/06 - Q1/07 Q1 - 2006 $20.50 uni t : U S $ Q1 - 2007 $24.00 gr ow t h r at e 17% 24 20.5 Increase of 43% Occupancy 97% Q 1/ 2006 Q 1/ 2007 * N ote: rents excluding S.C and VAT Rent trends of Grade C Q1/07 - Q3/07 Q1 - 2008 $32.00 uni t: US $ grow t h r at e 33% 32 24 Increase of 33% in comparison to Q1.07 Occupancy 98% Q 1/ 2007 Q 1/ 2008 * Note: rents excluding S.C and VAT CB Richard Ellis | Page 19
  20. HCMC OFFICE MARKET Market Outlook in 2008: Vacancy in grade A & B office space still remains limited. Supply of Expected new grade Expected Some new supply of Grade B office year of A, B & C supply space expected to come on line during 2007. completion buildings (sqm) Factors driving demand: Strong economic growth, FDI growth, WTO 2008 40 261,949 access, new multi-national companies, expansion of existing multi-national companies, Vietnam companies 2009 24 365,969 upgrading, safety & quality Issues Grade A & B office rental rates reflects 2010 10 288,156 upward momentum and growing demand vis-à-vis tight supply Vacancy rate remains low, grade A (0%) TOTAL 74 916,074 and B (
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