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The first in a series of triennial reviews, this study gives a comprehensive assessment of human resource and development trends in South Africa. Along with its companion web-based data warehouse, it is an invaluable, user-friendly resource for policy-makers, planners, managers and educators at both national and institutional levels.
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Nội dung Text: Human Resources Development Review 2003
- HUMAN SCIENCES RESEARCH COUNCIL HUMAN RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT REVIEW 2003 E D U C AT I O N , E M P LOY M E N T A N D S K I L L S I N S O U T H A F R I C A Free download from www.hsrcpublishers.ac.za
- © 2003 Human Sciences Research Council Compiled by the Research Programme on Human Resources Development, Human Sciences Research Council General Editors: Andre Kraak and Helene Perold Published by HSRC Press Private Bag X9182, Cape Town, 8000, South Africa www.hsrcpublishers.ac.za Published in the United States of America by Michigan State University Press East Lansing, Michigan 48823-5202 Distributed in Africa by Blue Weaver Marketing and Distribution, PO Box 30370, Tokai, Cape Town, 7966, South Africa. Tel: +27 +21-701-4477 Fax: +27 +21-701-7302 e-mail: booksales@hsrc.ac.za First published 2003 All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers. ISBN 0-7969-2049-4 Cover and text design and layout by Manik Design, Johannesburg, South Africa manikn@mweb.co.za Print management by comPress, Cape Town, South Africa www.compress.co.za Free download from www.hsrcpublishers.ac.za Printed by Paarl Print Printed in the Republic of South Africa Recommended citation: Human Sciences Research Council (2003) Human Resources Development Review 2003: Education, Employment and Skills in South Africa, Cape Town: HSRC Press and East Lansing: Michigan State University Press ii HRD REVIEW l 2003
- CONTENTS Preface v Acknowledgements ix Glossary xi List of tables and figures xiv Acronyms and abbreviations xxix INTRODUCTION Chapter 1 HRD and Joined-Up Policy 2 Andre Kraak SECTION ONE CONTEXT 2 Overview of the South African Economy 32 Anna McCord 3 Overview of Industrial Policy 64 Miriam Altman and Marina Mayer 4 The Skills Requirements of Specific Economic Sectors 86 Pundy Pillay Free download from www.hsrcpublishers.ac.za 5 Employment and Labour Market Trends 112 Anna McCord and Haroon Bhorat 6 The Informal Economy 142 Richard Devey, Caroline Skinner and Imraan Valodia 7 The Social and Human Development Context 164 Debbie Budlender 8 The Impact of HIV/AIDS 186 Jocelyn Vass 9 Science Policy Indicators 208 Nelius Boshoff and Johann Mouton 10 Skills Migration 234 Tracy Bailey 11 International Benchmarks 256 Debbie Budlender i ii 2003 l HRD REVIEW
- SECTION TWO SUPPLY 12 Public Expenditure on Education 280 Russell Wildeman 13 Public Schooling 302 Helen Perry and Fabian Arends 14 Public Further Education and Training Colleges 326 Glen Fisher, Ros Jaff, Lesley Powell and Graham Hall 15 Public Higher Education 352 George Subotzky 16 Independent Schooling 380 Jacques L du Toit 17 Private Further Education and Training 396 Salim Akoojee 18 Private Higher Education and Training 416 George Subotzky 19 Enterprise Training 432 Azeem Badroodien SECTION THREE SCARCE SKILLS 20 Forecasting the Demand for Scarce Skills, 2001-2006 458 Ingrid Woolard, Philip Kneebone and Deborah Lee 21 Educators 476 Free download from www.hsrcpublishers.ac.za Luis Crouch and Helen Perry 22 Academics 500 Charlton Koen 23 Medical Practitioners and Nurses 522 Elsje Hall and Johan Erasmus 24 Engineers and Technicians 554 Grové Steyn and Reza C Daniels 25 Biotechnologists 584 David R Walwyn 26 Managers 610 Frank M Horwitz and Angus Bowmaker-Falconer 27 ICT and Associated Professionals 634 Percy Moleke, Andrew Paterson and Joan Roodt 28 HRD and the Skills Crisis 660 Andre Kraak Index 688 iv HRD REVIEW l 2003
- PREFACE This Review is the outcome of a flagship project of the Research Programme on Human Resources Development (HRD) at the Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC), and was funded by the Department of Science and Technology (DST). The programmes core focus is to analyse the pathways of learners from the schooling system into further and higher education and the world of work. More specifically, the programme: conducts research on the supply side that examines the provision of public and private post- l school education and training, particularly in the further and higher education bands; conducts research on the demand side that examines the characteristics of those skills that are in l demand, those in short supply, and those that will be needed in the future; conducts research on the states new science and industrial policies and what the implications of l new knowledge and innovation requirements will be for the education and training system; and conducts theoretical research aimed at developing an appropriate conceptual framework for analysing l human resources. The research programme on HRD The Research Programme on HRD was established in May 2001 as a result of two external developments. Firstly, in October 2000, Cabinet mandated the HSRC to undertake research for government in the field of HRD. Government also appointed the HSRC to a joint Education and Labour Task Team commissioned to draw up an HRD Strategy for the country. The policy document, entitled An HRD Strategy for South Africa: A Nation at Work for a Better Life for All, was publicly Free download from www.hsrcpublishers.ac.za launched in April 2001. The HSRC Research Programme on HRD seeks to support this strategy through the provision of strategic research and the dissemination of information. The second development occurred in December 2000. The Department of Science and Technology awarded the HSRC a significant three-year research grant, ring-fenced specifically for HRD-related research work. The flagship project This project has three components. The first concerns the development of a comprehensive web- based, cross-sectoral data warehouse. This infrastructure is oriented largely towards the provision of improved information and analysis to support government decision-making in the arena of HRD (see http://hrdwarehouse.hsrc.ac.za). The second is a biennial human resources development review that provides comprehensive analyses of key education and training, labour-market and macro-economic indicators. Thirdly, the project produces an interpretive overview (in the format of a monograph) of the key trends in HRD in the post-apartheid period (see Kraak 2004).1 This Review is the first in a series of biennial human resources development overviews to be published by the HSRC. v 2003 l HRD REVIEW
- PREFACE Conception of HRD The key thesis underlying the project is that HRD is a cross-sectoral policy issue that is shaped by, and impacts on, a multitude of government policy domains such as education and training, the labour market, and macroeconomic, industrial and foreign trade policies. When combined or joined up in an interlocking and self-reinforcing way, the basket of government policies yields the appropriate human and technological capability necessary for future national economic success. Human resources development is thus the glue that helps to develop and sustain successful economic systems. This approach is underpinned by the necessity for education reforms to interlock and join up with macroeconomic, industrial and labour market reforms so that their combined impact has a better chance of meeting the new conditions for global competitiveness the attainment of high-quality manufacture through a highly skilled and highly productive workforce. This view of HRD policy and planning sees educational reform as constituting one component of a necessarily larger set of socio- economic reforms. It posits the view that the attainment of successful reform in one institutional sphere (such as education) is conditional on parallel changes occurring in other institutional spheres (for example, in the macroeconomic, labour market and work organisation environments). Effective HRD planning, particularly the co-ordination of all its cross-sectoral dynamics, is a key condition for economic success. This central proposition is asserted throughout the Review and is supported by four key assumptions: The increased primacy of education and training: One of the central implications of globalisation l is the increased importance of education and training, particularly given the demands for higher levels of multi-functional skill competencies distributed across the entire workforce. Improved education and training is a critical pre-requisite for successful participation in the rapidly globalising knowledge economy. Free download from www.hsrcpublishers.ac.za The success of co-ordinated market economies: There is now sufficient evidence in the international l literature that, contrary to neo-liberal economic orthodoxy, co-ordinated market economies (in which the state plays a critical role in regulating economic development) are more successful in the age of globalisation than free market economies. Effective human resources development policies are a key requirement of co-ordinated market economies. This is because a countrys full HRD requirements are rarely met by the market alone, but rather through a combination of market forces and deliberate planning and co-ordination by the state over the medium to long term. The importance of cross-sectoral policy co-ordination: Co-ordinated market economies are l premised on the development and implementation of cross-sectoral rather than mono-sectoral policy instruments. Human resources development policies are intrinsically cross-sectoral. The importance of data and information for HRD planning: The requirement of cross-sectoral l joined-up policy co-ordination and implementation makes extremely challenging and resource- intensive demands on government. A key condition for its success is the availability of comprehensive management information systems across a wide array of socio-economic issues. These enable government-planners to respond timeously to complex and often dramatic social changes. For example, substantive shifts are likely to occur in the structure of the economy and its sectoral characteristics over the next five to ten years. New growth areas will be triggered by greater export activity, growth in small, medium and micro enterprises (SMMEs) of both the technological and survivalist kinds, spatial development initiatives, and economic sectoral vi HRD REVIEW l 2003
- PREFACE clustering. Employment patterns will shift away from declining sectors towards these new growth points. The occupational structure will change as new skill requirements arise at both the high- and low-skill ends of the spectrum. Enormous pressure will be exerted on further and higher education institutions during this period to respond to these new skill demands. Planners in government will need to measure the cross-sectoral impact of all these shifts. It is here that the development of a cross-sectoral management information system will be of greatest value a multifaceted data warehouse that combines information on both the demand and supply sides in order to highlight and measure the extent to which governments industrial and employment objectives have been met. Such a multifaceted data warehouse will also indicate whether equivalent changes have occurred on the supply side that is, whether education and training institutions have responded to changes in the economy and labour market. It is the governments role to co-ordinate the key interlocking cross-sectoral policies and plan a national HRD strategy. However, government does not possess the necessary management information capability to develop and carry out this planning and co-ordination on its own. The aim of the HSRCs biennial HRD review and data warehouse project, then, is to assist government in acquiring these critical HRD policy requirements. Through this Review and the Data Warehouse, the innovative contribution of the HSRC and its research partners thus resides in: developing a multi-faceted, cross-sectoral data warehouse which provides easy access to a l comprehensive set of data on the demand and supply sides of the HRD equation; combining databases that are currently maintained separately specifically those describing l education and training, and labour-market and employment conditions; conducting new qualitative and theoretical research that interrogates the quantitative data, l yielding a richer reading of HRD conditions at the macro, meso and micro levels; Free download from www.hsrcpublishers.ac.za doing secondary analyses of accumulated cross-sectoral data. These interpretative analyses take l the traditional academic format of chapters in biennial HRD reviews and other academic papers made available in the Data Warehouse; disseminating HRD information in simple, easy-to-use formats through easy and free access to the l Data Warehouse website, and through the biennial production and dissemination of the HRD reviews. There is no duplication between the production of existing government databases and the work of the HSRC. The role of the HSRC and its research partners is to add value to these data sources by improving linkages and comparisons across government databases and transforming this information into analytical, strategic and predictive analyses. In so doing, the aim is to support better HRD planning in South Africa in the medium to long term. An evidence-led overview The HSRCs HRD Review 2003 and Data Warehouse is primarily an evidence-led quantitative project aimed at filling the information gap that has plagued government HRD planning since 1994. Because of the difficulties associated with working with provisional data sets that have not yet been through the necessary scientific validation and comprehensive quality control processes, the HRD Review 2003 only uses data that have been extensively tested. The consequence of this decision, however, v ii 2003 l HRD REVIEW
- PREFACE is that the Review can only work with older data. The cut-off point for the HRD Review 2003 is largely December 2000, although certain chapters are able to draw on data from 2001 and 2002. Future HRD reviews will be similarly constrained. In conclusion, then, the project is a comprehensive attempt to describe and measure the complex, inter-related social conditions that characterise South Africa. The book and the Data Warehouse, through the evidence they present, also identify certain critical joined-up policy requirements that are essential for the future success of governments HRD Strategy. Andre Kraak and Helene Perold General Editors Free download from www.hsrcpublishers.ac.za Note Kraak, A (2004) An Overview of South African Human Resources Development: The Importance of Joined-Up Policy Co-ordination and 1 Implementation, Human Sciences Research Council, Cape Town: HSRC Press viii HRD REVIEW l 2003
- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The authorship of this Review is institutional and therefore collective, and requires the acknowledgement of the people who spent many weeks and months working on this project. The Department of Science and Technology At the outset we pay tribute to the Department of Science and Technology, whose generous ring- fenced grant for the period 2001 to 2003 has enabled us to produce a comprehensive and high- quality product. The project team We would like to acknowledge and thank our highly capable project team who made the Human Resources Development Review 2003 and Data Warehouse website a reality: They are: General Editors: Andre Kraak and Helene Perold l Project Managers of the Human Resources Development Review 2003: Leslie Powell, Ansie l Lombaard and Lindi Basson Project Manager of the Data Warehouse: Andrew Paterson l The Data Warehouse technical development team: Robin Naude, Arjen van Zwieten and Helen Perry l Supporting the project team were the following people, to whom thanks are due for their important contributions to the project: Free download from www.hsrcpublishers.ac.za Kathleen Bartels (copy-editor); Martie Boesenberg (technical proofreader); Michael Cosser, Glenda Kruss, Moeketsi Letseka, Simon McGrath and Andrew Paterson (proofreaders); Jeanne Cope (indexer); Sue Munro (web pages); Gerald OSullivan (IT support); Lucia Lotter (search facility); Debbie Teixeira and Nicky Clark of Manik Design (design and layout); Hans Ros (server administration); Richard Rufus-Ellis (external proofreader); Monica Seeber and Kyle McCloughlin (permissions); Marise Swardt (picture research). Authors We thank the following authors who contributed their research and analyses from their positions outside the HSRC and those within: Salim Akoojee, Miriam Altman, Fabian Arends, Azeem Badroodien, Tracy Bailey, Haroon Bhorat, Nelius Boshoff, Angus Bowmaker-Falconer, Debbie Budlender, Luis Crouch, Reza C Daniels, Richard Devey, Jacques L du Toit, Johan Erasmus, Glen Fisher, Elsje Hall, Graham Hall, Frank M Horwitz, Ros Jaff, Philip Kneebone, Charlton Koen, Andre Kraak, Deborah Lee, Marina Mayer, Anna McCord, Percy Moleke, Johann Mouton, Andrew Paterson, Helen Perry, Pundy Pillay, Lesley Powell, Joan Roodt, Caroline Skinner, Grové Steyn, George Subotzky, Imraan Valodia, Jocelyn Vass, David R Walwyn, Russell Wildeman and Ingrid Woolard. ix 2003 l HRD REVIEW
- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Reviewers The following senior academics and government policy experts are thanked for undertaking the demanding peer review of 28 chapters in a very short space of time: External reviewers David Ashton, Professor of Sociology and Director of the Centre for Labour Market Studies, l Leicester University Haroon Bhorat, Director of the Development Policy Research Unit (DPRU) based at the School of l Economics, University of Cape Town Adrienne Bird, Deputy Director-General, Department of Labour l Ian Bunting, Director of Planning, Higher Education branch of the national Department of Education l Trevor Coombe, formerly Deputy Director-General, Department of Education, Pretoria, and currently l an education consultant Adeline du Toit, Professor and Head of Department of Information Studies, Rand Afrikaans l University Hugh Lauder, Professor of Education, Bath University l Ian Macun, Director, Skills Development Planning Unit, Department of Labour l Enver Motala, formerly Deputy Director-General, Department of Education, Gauteng Province, l and currently an education consultant Joe Muller, Professor of Education, University of Cape Town l Helen Perry, independent contractor specialising in education management information systems l (EMIS) and education planning Free download from www.hsrcpublishers.ac.za Pundy Pillay, Senior Research Economist for the Research Triangle Institute (SA) l Chris Rensleigh, Lecturer, Department of Information Studies, Rand Afrikaans University l Charles Simkins, Professor of Economics, University of the Witwatersrand l Eddie Webster, Professor of Industrial Sociology, University of the Witwatersrand l Michael Young, Professor of Education, Institute of Education, University of London l Internal reviewers Miriam Altman, Executive Director, Research Programme on Employment and Economic Policy, l HSRC Simon McGrath, D irector of FET Research, Research Programme on Human Resources l Development, HSRC Andrew Paterson, Chief Research Specialist of EMIS Research, Research Programme on Human l Resources Development, HSRC x HRD REVIEW l 2003
- GLOSSARY Black. This term includes African, coloured and Indian South Africans. Homeland. An area designated under the apartheid system as a self-governing territory for differing categories of Africans, defined largely by race. Some of these territories were later decreed as so-called independendent states. These included the former Transkei, Bophuthatswana, Venda and Ciskei. Indian. This term designates one of the population groups in South Africa and includes all Asians. Learner. The term learner is now widely used in South Africa, specifically in Education Department legislation and policy documents, in preference to student, to reflect a more active, inclusive and lifelong process of learning. Educators refer to any person who teaches, educates or trains other people at an education institution. The term is used in preference to the more traditional teacher to broaden the scope of activities involving people engaged in some form of education of others. Education programmes refer to different types of education provision, e.g. early childhood development, adult basic education and training, primary and secondary schooling, further education and training, and higher education (Chapter 12). Endorsement is the minimum condition for entry to a degree programme at a university. Learners who pass the Senior Certificate Examination with endorsement are qualified to enter university. The conditions for a Senior Certificate with endorsement are established by the South African Universities Vice-Chancellors Association (SAUVCA) (Chapter 15). Establishment posts in FET colleges are posts paid for by the provincial education authorities (Chapter 14). A Further Education and Training College refers to a college which provides further education and training on the basis of full-time, part-time or distance provision, and which is (a) established or Free download from www.hsrcpublishers.ac.za regarded as having been established as a public further education and training institution under the Further Education and Training Act No. 98 of 1998; (b) declared a public further education and training institution under this Act; or (c) registered or conditionally registered as a private further education and training institution under this Act (Chapter 14). Full-time equivalent (FTE) is a measure used to calculate the subsidy paid by government to higher education institutions. The measure is based on one student enrolled full-time for a degree programme in contact mode for a whole academic year. A student studying full-time for a six-monthly semester programme would be the equivalent of 0.5 FTE. Gini coefficient. The Gini coefficient is a figure between 0 and 1, which can be multiplied by 100 to give a figure between 0 and 100. The same idea is being represented in both cases, with 0 representing perfect equality and 1 (or 100) representing perfect inequality (Chapters 2, 7, 11). Gross enrolment ratio (GER) is a measure of access and coverage. It measures the proportion of the population that the school system covers and the capacity of schools to accommodate the population (Chapter 13). Headcount refers to the number of individual students in a higher education institution. Headcounts include all enrolments regardless of the length of the course or programme. Consequently, each short- term and part-time student is counted in the same way as full-time enrolments. Headcounts thus present a potentially inflated picture of the size of the system. To address this, full-time equivalent (FTE) enrolments are calculated by converting headcounts to the full-time one-year equivalent of each enrolment. Thus, a student enrolled for a half-year semester course will count as 0.5 of an FTE enrolment (Chapter 15). xi 2003 l HRD REVIEW
- GLOSSARY Higher education. A level of educational provision defined by the National Qualifications Framework (NQF) in South Africa as including all qualifications from Level 5 to Level 8 on the NQF. Defined differently, higher education includes all education programmes at the post-school, pre-degree level, including certificates, diplomas and higher diplomas (Level 5 programmes), as well as all undergraduate degree and postgraduate degree programmes, from bachelor degrees to the doctoral level (Level 6-8 programmes). Historically advantaged institutions. This term refers to institutions that, under apartheid, were designated to serve white students, preserving the socio-economic domination of the white population. These institutions enjoyed relative advantage through preferential resource allocation, and better facilities, infrastructure and access to developmental opportunities (Chapter 15). Historically disadvantaged institutions. This term refers to institutions that, under apartheid, were designated to serve the various ethnic groups of the black (African, Indian and coloured) population through a restricted range of teaching programmes and very limited research, thereby ensuring the socio-economic subservience of the black population. They consequently suffered various disadvantages with regard to funding, location, facilities and developmental opportunities (Chapter 15). Internal labour markets are located within specific enterprises. In these markets, jobs are usually filled by internal promotion, and skills are acquired internally rather than through the acquisition and possession of externally recognised qualifications (Chapters 1 and 28). Junior teaching staff in further education institutions are defined as lecturers and senior lecturers (post levels 1 and 2). Non-teaching staff refers to staff appointed to provide administrative and support services to the institution (Chapter 14). Learnerships. Learnerships are aimed at providing workplace learning in a structured and systematic form through the provision of both formalised learning and structured work experience. Learnership contracts are signed in a three-way agreement between the employer, education and training provider, and learner (Chapter 1). Lekgotla. A Setswana word referring traditionally to a gathering of the (male) elders. Today it is widely used in South Africa to refer to a strategic planning session, often at a retreat away from work Free download from www.hsrcpublishers.ac.za (Chapter 1). NATED 191. An official government policy document that spells out the norms and standards defining public FET (technical) college curricula. Net enrolment ratio (NER) is a measure of the internal efficiency of the schooling system and only measures those learners who are the appropriate age for the primary or secondary phase (Chapter 13). Net participation rate. A net participation rate expresses the ratio of the total headcounts of learners in a defined age cohort (such as the age cohort of 15 to 29) to the total population in the same age cohort (in this case the age cohort of 15 to 29). Statistics South Africa publishes the national population census data (Chapter 14). Non-African historically disadvantaged universities are the Universities of the Western Cape and Durban-Westville (Chapter 15). Non-African historically disadvantaged technikons are Peninsula Technikon and ML Sultan Technikon (Chapter 15). Non-DoE programmes refer to those programmes offered by Further Education and Training colleges that are not accredited by the Department of Education through NATED 191 (Chapter 14). Non-establishment posts are posts paid for from the College Council funds of Further Education and Training colleges (Chapter 14). x ii HRD REVIEW l 2003
- GLOSSARY Pass rate refers to the number of learners who pass an examination expressed as a percentage of the total number of learners who register for the examination, and who actually write the examination. Person-days. The number of days worked by individuals. If 20 000 people each work for 40 days, this amounts to 800 000 person-days (Chapter 7). Race group, also population group (e.g. African, white, coloured and Indian). These terms are used to designate the racial categories that came to the fore in South Africa under apartheid. These are social categories that scientists would prefer not to employ, but because they still have very powerful salience in shaping social life in South Africa, most social analyses still require their usage. Relative Education Qualification Value (REQV) refers to a qualification grouping of teaching staff. For example, all honours, masters and doctoral degrees have a REQV level of 15 and above. Higher diplomas and bachelors degrees have a REQV level of 14. All diplomas are at REQV level 13. Educators are considered to be unqualified or underqualified if they have a qualification resulting in REQV level 10, 11 or 12 (Chapter 21). Senior teaching staff at FET colleges are defined as heads of department, vice-principals and principals (post levels 3, 4 and 5) (Chapter 14). Learner/educator ratio describes the average number of learners per educator in the school system. The ratio is calculated by dividing the total enrolment of learners by the total teaching staff. Special purpose historically disadvantaged universities comprise MEDUNSA and Vista University (Chapter 15). Throughput rates as defined at higher education institutions. Throughput rates in higher education are defined institutionally as: the total number of students who graduate from a higher education institution each year, as a percentage of the total number of students enrolled in that institution. Throughput rates as defined in technical colleges refer to the number of learners who enrol at the beginning of an education programme and who pass the examination at the end of the year. The throughput rate is distinct from the pass rate, which is defined as the number of learners who pass Free download from www.hsrcpublishers.ac.za an examination expressed as a percentage of the total number of learners who qualify to write the examination, and who actually write the examination. For example: A programme has 100 learners who enrol in February at the start of the academic year. Ten drop out during the year. At the time of the examination (usually in October/November of each year), 90 learners qualify to write, and 45 learners pass. The pass rate is therefore 50 per cent, but the throughput rate is 45 per cent a lower statistic reflecting the drop-out factor. Tradables are goods that can be exported. In the context of industrial and trade policy, the term refers to manufactured goods. In the broader economy it includes primary products (i.e. agriculture and minerals) and, more recently, services (Chapter 3). Wage goods are staple goods such as food, clothing and housing (Chapter 3). x iii 2003 l HRD REVIEW
- LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES Note: All this data can be downloaded in Excel format off the HSRCs Data Warehouse website on http://hrdwarehouse.hsrc.ac.za CONTEXT Chapter 1 HRD and Joined-Up Policy Table 1 Institutions critical to the development of human resources 5 Table 2 Estimated number of annual school-leavers who enter the labour market for the first time and get jobs, 2000-2002 14 Figure 1 Average annual through-flow of school-leavers entering the youth labour market for the first time, 2000-2002 13 Chapter 2 Overview of the South African Economy Table 1 Real GDP growth in South Africa, 1996/97-2001/02 39 Table 2 Consumer inflation, 1996/97-2001/02 40 Table 3 Components of expenditure, 1994, 1996 and 2001 at 1995 prices (R million) 41 Table 4 Change in composition of gross capital formation, 1994 and 2001 (R million) 42 Table 5 Key fiscal indicators as percentage of GDP 1995-2004 (MTEF projection for 2004/05) , 47 Table 6 Consolidated national and provincial expenditure by service, 1998/99 and 2004/05 MTEF projection (R million) 51 Free download from www.hsrcpublishers.ac.za Table 7 Average percentage spending growth by service, 1998/99-2003/04 52 Table 8 Average annual change in adjusted provincial expenditure, 1997-2003 52 Table 9 Consolidated national and provincial social service spending by sector, 1998/99 and 2004/05 (MTEF projection for 2004/05) (R million) 54 Table 10 Trends in consolidated national and provincial social service spending by sector, 1998/99-2004/05 (MTEF projection for 2004/05) (R million) 54 Table 11 Provincial social service expenditure by sector (nominal), 1997/98-2003/04 (MTEF projection for 2003/04) (R billion) 55 Table 12 Provincial education expenditure, 1997/98-2003/04 (MTEF projection for 2003/04) (R billion) 56 Figure 1 CPIX and real growth in GDP 1996/97-2001/02 , 40 Figure 2 Gross capital formation in 1995 prices 41 Figure 3 Change in composition of gross capital formation, 1994-2001 42 Figure 4 Net foreign direct investment flows, 1993-2000 (R million) 43 Figure 5 Budget deficit as percentage of GDP 1996/97-2004/05 (MTEF projection for , 2004/05) (R million) 48 Figure 6 Government expenditure and real and nominal growth, 1996/97-2004/05 (MTEF projection for 2004/05)(R million) 48 x iv HRD REVIEW l 2003
- LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES Figure 7 Consolidated national and provincial expenditure by service, 2004/05 MTEF projection 51 Figure 8 Consolidated national and provincial social service expenditure by sector, 2004/05 MTEF projection 53 Figure 9 Social service expenditure (nominal), 1997/98-2003/04 (MTEF projection for 2003/04)(R billion) 55 Figure 10 Sectoral shares of provincial expenditure, 2001/02 56 Chapter 3 Overview of Industrial Policy Table 1 Trends in employment, 1991-2000 73 Figure 1 Growth in exports, 1991-2000 (weighted average annual growth rates, constant 1995 prices) 71 Figure 2 South Africas exports to Africa, 1992-2001 (R thousand) 72 Figure 3 Composition of South Africas exports to Africa, 2001 72 Figure 4 Rates of output growth by technological composition (value added), 1994-2001 74 Figure 5 Factor intensity of South Africas exports, 1992 and 1999 74 Figure 6 Percentage change in demand for labour by industrial sector, 1991-2000 79 Chapter 4 The Skills Requirements of Specific Economic Sectors Table 1 The impact of industry drivers on skills needs, short to medium term 93 Table 2 Projected growth (percentage) in the banking sector and GDP 2002-2004 , 94 Table 3 Employment trends in media, printing and publishing compared with aggregate employment and manufacturing employment trends, 1993-2002 103 Free download from www.hsrcpublishers.ac.za Table 4 Output, wages and employment trends in the media, printing and publishing sector, 1993-2000 104 Table 5 Employment by occupation, 1998 104 Table 6 Contribution of selected sectors to GDP 1999 , 105 Table 7 Tourism sector: Employment and direct contribution to GDP 1997-2002 , 105 Table 8 Tourism sector: Employment, and direct and indirect contribution to GDP 1997-2002 , 106 Table 9 Employment trends in manufacturing and tourism as a percentage of aggregate employment, 1997-2001 106 Table 10 Employment by occupation, 2000 107 Figure 1 Real annual growth of the financial and businesses services sector relative to the economy (GDP), 1990-2001 89 Figure 2 Change in employment in the financial services sector relative to the economy as a whole, 1990-2001 89 Figure 3 Growth in the business services sector, 1996-2003 91 xv 2003 l HRD REVIEW
- LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES Chapter 5 Employment and Labour Market Trends Table 1 Private and public sector employment growth, 1995-2001 119 Table 2 Sectoral employment totals, 1995 and 2001 120 Table 3 Dominant employment sectors by percentage share of total employment, 1995 and 2001 120 Table 4 Tertiary employment growth by race, 1995-1999 124 Table 5 Narrow and broad unemployment in South Africa by location and gender, 2001 126 Table 6 Broad unemployment by race, location and gender, 2001 126 Table 7 Median monthly wage by race, 1995 129 Table 8 Median monthly wage by education level, 1995 129 Table 9 Median monthly wage by sector, 1995 130 Table 10 Median monthly wage by occupation and race, 1995 131 Table 11 International comparison of wage differentials 133 Figure 1 Total, formal and informal sector employment, 1996-2001 118 Figure 2 Share of employment by sector, 2001 120 Figure 3 Changes in employment by occupation, 1995-1999 122 Figure 4 Percentage change in employment and economically active population (EAP) by race, 1995-1999 122 Figure 5 Percentage change in employment and economically active population (EAP) by gender, 1995-1999 122 Figure 6 Percentage change in employment and economically active population (EAP) by education, 1995-1999 123 Figure 7 Number of unemployed by age, 1999 (thousands) 127 Figure 8 Unemployment by education level, 1999 127 Free download from www.hsrcpublishers.ac.za Figure 9 Categories of the unemployed, 1997 128 Chapter 6 The Informal Economy Table 1 Formal and informal economy labour market trends, 1997-2001 147 Table 2 Proportion of formal and informal employment by race, 2001 148 Table 3 Proportion of workers in each race group by sector, 2001 148 Table 4 Proportion of workers in each sector by gender, 2001 148 Table 5 Number and percentage of informal workers by economic sector, 2001 148 Table 6 Number and percentage formal and informal workers by occupation, 2001 149 Table 7 Proportion of occupations in the informal economy by race, 2001 149 Table 8 Proportion of occupations in the informal economy by gender, 2001 150 Table 9 Number and percentage of workers in the formal and informal economy by income category, 2001 151 Table 10 Households in South Africa by types of workers, 2001 153 Table 11 Proportion of formal and informal workers by education level, 2001 154 Table 12 Informal workers: Proportion by income level and education level, 2001 155 x vi HRD REVIEW l 2003
- LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES Table 13 Informal workers: Percentage by education level and income level, 2001 155 Table 14 Regression results: Returns to education in the informal economy, 2001 156 Table 15 Occupations in the informal economy by education, 2001 156 Table 16 Ability to write and read in the formal and informal economy, 2001 156 Table 17 Mean time use for formal and informal workers, 2000 157 Table 18 Informal workers: Mean time use by gender, 2000 158 Figure 1 Histogram of formal workers by income level, 2001 150 Figure 2 Histogram of informal workers by income level, 2001 151 Figure 3 Proportion of African and white workers in the informal economy by income level, 2001 152 Figure 4 Histogram of male informal workers by income level, 2001 152 Figure 5 Histogram of female informal workers by income level, 2001 152 Chapter 7 The Social and Human Development Context Table 1 Poverty rates for TBVC areas and for South Africa as a whole, 1993 166 Table 2 Estimated South African population by province and gender, 2002 167 Table 3 South African population by province and race, 1996 168 Table 4 Percentage of the population which was urban, 1996 168 Table 5 Percentage race distribution of urban and non-urban population, 1996 168 Table 6 Provincial poverty rates by percentage, 1995 172 Table 7 Percentage race distribution by employment status and gender, September 2001 174 Table 8 Percentage of households with access to services, 1995-2000 177 Free download from www.hsrcpublishers.ac.za Table 9 Percentage of urban and non-urban households with access to services, 2000 178 Table 10 Percentage distribution of women and men aged 25+ years by race and highest level of education, 2001 182 Figure 1 South African population pyramid, 1990 and 2010 169 Figure 2 The waves of the AIDS epidemic (no-change scenario), 1990-2025 170 Chapter 8 The Impact of HIV/AIDS Table 1 Projected life expectancy at birth, 1999-2010 191 Table 2 Projected changes in the size of the labour force, 2000-2015 191 Figure 1 HIV prevalence rate by gender and age group, 2000 (no-change scenario) 191 Figure 2 Percentage of HIV infection rates by main economic sector, 2000-2015 194 Figure 3 AIDS deaths per 100 workers in main economic sectors, 2000-2015 195 Figure 4 HIV prevalence rate by skill levels in the employed labour force, 2000-2015 198 Figure 5 AIDS prevalence by skill levels in the employed labour force, 2000-2015 198 xvii 2003 l HRD REVIEW
- LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES Chapter 9 Science Policy Indicators Table 1 The decomposition of South African growth in GDP into the contribution by factors of labour, capital and technological progress, 1970s-1990s 213 Table 2 The decomposition of growth in GDP into the contribution by factors of labour, capital and technological progress: The South African evidence by principal economic sector, 1970s-1990s 213 Table 3 Performance by South Africa on the indicators of TAI, 1990s 214 Table 4 Comparison between South Africa and eight countries on the core indicators of technology creation and human skills 215 Table 5 Number of utility patents registered with the USPTO for South Africa and countries with similar rankings in the World Competitiveness Yearbook, 1991-2001 217 Table 6 Scientific publications per million population, 1996-1999 219 Table 7 R&D income by source in the higher education sector, 1996-2000 (R million) 221 Table 8 Military R&D expenditure as a percentage of total R&D expenditure, 1983-1997 (R million) 224 Table 9 FTE R&D staff by research performing sector, 1997/98 225 Table 10 Gender and race distribution of masters and doctoral students, 1995 and 2000 229 Figure 1 South African patents registered with the USPTO (all types, 1990-2001) 216 Figure 2 Total scientific output, 1991-2000 218 Figure 3 Scientific publications by race, 1990-2000 220 Figure 4 Scientific publications by age cohort, 1990-2000 220 Figure 5 R&D expenditure in the higher education sector including estimated labour costs, 1996-2000 (R billion) 222 Figure 6 Research expenditure in the business sector, 1983-1997 (nominal R million) 223 Figure 7 Sources of R&D funding in 2000/01 in the science council sector (R thousand) 223 Free download from www.hsrcpublishers.ac.za Figure 8 Distribution of military R&D expenditure in South Africa, 1980-2002 (R million) 225 Figure 9 R&D personnel and researchers per 1 000 members of the labour force, 1998 226 Figure 10 Headcount of instruction/research professionals at universities and technikons, 1985-2000 226 Figure 11 Racial distribution of instruction/research personnel at universities and technikons, 1990-2000 227 Figure 12 Gender distribution of research/instructional personnel at universities and technikons, 1985-2000 227 Figure 13 R&D personnel in the business sector (FTEs), 1983/84-1997/98 228 Figure 14 R&D personnel in the government sector (FTEs), 1983/84-1997/98 228 Figure 15 Masters and doctoral enrolments at universities, 1985-2000 229 Figure 16 University postgraduate enrolments in the natural and human sciences, 1995 and 2000 230 xviii HRD REVIEW l 2003
- LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES Chapter 10 Skills Migration Table 1 Emigration of professionals: Comparative figures for top destination countries, 1989-1997 238 Table 2 Emigration of professionals by destination: A comparison across three decades 244 Table 3 Immigration and emigration of skilled workers, 1988-2000 246 Figure 1 Professional emigrants as a percentage of total emigrants, 1970-2000 239 Figure 2 Net migration of professionals, 1970-2000 239 Figure 3 Migration of professionals during apartheid, 1970-1992 240 Figure 4 Migration of professionals in the post-apartheid era, 1994-2000 241 Figure 5 Emigration of professionals by age group, 1970-2000 242 Figure 6 Emigration of professionals by gender, 1971-2000 243 Figure 7 Emigration of professionals by destination, 1970-2000 243 Chapter 11 International Benchmarks Table 1 Components of the human development index, 2002 259 Table 2 Human development index trends, 1975-2000 260 Table 3 Mean scores showing South Africas performance in the TIMSS, 1999 261 Table 4 HIV/AIDS indicators, end 1999 263 Table 5 Labour force participation rates in SADC countries 264 Table 6 Gini coefficient of the twelve most unequal countries, 2002 266 Table 7 High achievers in gender equality and womens empowerment 269 Table 8 Items on which South Africa ranks high on the world competitiveness index, 2001 271 Free download from www.hsrcpublishers.ac.za Table 9 Items on which South Africa ranks poorly on the world competitiveness index, 2001 271 SUPPLY Chapter 12 Public Expenditure on Education Table 1 Actual education expenditure by province, 1995/96-1997/98 (R thousand) 285 Table 2 Consolidated education expenditure as a percentage of total national expenditure and gross domestic product (R billion) 286 Table 3 Consolidated national and provincial education budget, 2001/02-2004/05 (R million) 286 Table 4 MTEF estimates for ABET by province, 2001/02-2004/05 (R thousand) 287 Table 5 MTEF spending estimates for ECD by province for the period 2001/02 estimated actual to 2004/05 (R thousand) 289 Table 6 MTEF spending estimates for provincial public schools by province, 2001/02 actual to 2004/05 (R thousand) 290 Table 7 Per capita spending in public schools by province, 2001/02-2003/04 (Rand values) 291 x ix 2003 l HRD REVIEW
- LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES Table 8 Average per learner allocation on the norms and standards for 2000 and 2001 (Rand values) 291 Table 9 MTEF estimates for technical colleges by province, 2001/02-2004/05 (R thousand) 294 Table 10 The average funding level of the SAPSE subsidy formula for universities by year, 1986-2002 296 Table 11 MTEF estimates for the national education budget, 2001/02-2004/05 (R thousand) 297 Table 12 Projected spending on the NSFAS, 2001/02-2004/05 (R million) 297 Figure 1 Real average annual growth of actual technical college spending for selected provinces,1997/98-2000/01 293 Figure 2 Real year-on-year growth of actual higher education spending, 1997/98-2000/01 295 Chapter 13 Public Schooling Table 1 Number of learners and growth rates in ordinary public schools, 1975, 1985, 1997 and 2000 305 Table 2 Learner enrolment by race, 1975, 1985 and 1994 305 Table 3 Learner enrolment by former departments in 1994, proportion of learners writing the SCE and the SCE pass rate 306 Table 4 Number of learners and growth rates in ordinary public schools by province, 1997 and 2000 308 Table 5 Gross enrolment ratio (percentage) in the ordinary public and independent school sector, 1975, 1985, 1997 and 2000 309 Table 6 Net enrolment ratio (percentage) in the ordinary public and independent school sector by province, 1997 310 Table 7 Percentage of children enrolled according to age categories 7-13 and 14-18, 1997 310 Table 8 Repeater and dropout rates, 1997 311 Free download from www.hsrcpublishers.ac.za Table 9 Years of effort to complete primary school and attain Grade 11 and 12, 1997 and 2000 312 Table 10 Number of state-paid and governing body-paid educators, 1975, 1985, 1996 and 2000 313 Table 11 Unqualified/underqualified and qualified educators, 1975, 1985, 1994 and 2000 313 Table 12 Percentage of schools with telephones, water, electricity, toilets and classroom shortages, 1996 and 2000 314 Table 13 Results of the TIMSS-R Grade 8 mathematics and science achievement tests (ranked by mathematics results) 316 Table 14 MLA average scores (by percentage) for numeracy, literacy and life skills tests (ranked by numeracy results) 316 Table 15 Candidates enrolled for the SCE and passing by race, 1975, 1985, 1990 and 1993 317 Table 16 Full-time candidates enrolled for and passing the SCE, 1996-2001 318 Table 17 Number of SCE candidates in each province in 2001, the percentage decrease over 2000, and the GER of SCE candidates and 18 year-olds 319 Table 18 SCE provincial average aggregate marks, 2001 319 Table 19 Number of SCE male and female candidates enrolled and passing, and as a percentage of the total, 1996 and 2001 320 xx HRD REVIEW l 2003
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