THE PHILLIPS CURVE AND LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYMENT 1

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THE PHILLIPS CURVE AND LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYMENT 1

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This paper studies the role of long-term unemployment in the determination of prices and wages. Labor market theories such as insider-outsider models predict that this type of unemployed are less relevant in the wage formation process than the newly unemployed. This paper looks for evidence of this behavior in a set of OECD countries. For this purpose, I propose a new specification of the Phillips Curve that contains different unemployment lengths in a time-varying NAIRU setting. This is done by constructing an index of unemployment that assigns different weights to the unemployed based on the length of their spell. The...

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