Climate change has been happening in scales of the global, regional as well as in Vietnam because of human activities which impulse greenhouse gas increasing in the atmosphere. To cope effectively with climate change, the understanding of future climate based on climate change scenarios, particularly scenarios for small areas, is essential. This paper concerns on the application of MAGICC/SCENGEN 5.3 software in combination with statistic correction to develop climate change scenarios for small areas in Vietnam. Results showed that the temperature is increased, while rainfall is changed...
. Base on Climate Change Scenarios (A2, B2, B1), simulation outputs of river flow show the changes of water resources in Ca River. These results are arguments for water resources planning in Ca River under the climate change situations. Keywords: climate change, water resources, Ca River.
1. Introduction∗ Climate change (CC) is a major concern of society in general and Vietnam in particular. Due to impacts of climate change, water resources in river is changed in quantity, quality, regime ...
This study investigates impacts of climate change on water resource in the Huong River basin in the Central Vietnam. Hydrological responses of six climate change scenarios were calculated. Results reveal that climate change would cause significant increase in rainfall in wet season resulting in an increase in river flow. By contrast, the decreasing trend of river flow in dry season is a consequence of the decline of rainfall and increase of evapotranspiration under most scenarios. Sea level rise coupled with the lowering of river stages may exacerbate salinity intrusion.
Rapid socio–economic development leads to a great increase in water demand of many sectors and conflicts between water users. Moreover, studies have warned about serious degree of influence of climate change (CC) on Vietnam, particularly on the water resources. Therefore, assess CC impacts on water balances are very necessary task. The Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment has completed the appropriate climate change scenarios in Vietnam .
In the framework of the program "Asian Cities Climate Change Resilience Network" funded by Rockefeller Foundation, Vietnam Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environment carried out this study with the aim to strongly support the development of action plan to respond to climate change for Quy Nhon city. The study developed climate change (temperature and rainfall) and sea level rise scenarios corresponding to some key emission scenarios, namely A1FI, A2 and B2. Impacts of climate change on main sectors such as water resources, agriculture and tourism were also assessed.
Base on the results of the flow simulated by Mekong River Commission (MRC), combined with Sea Level Rise (SLR) and salinity scenarios by IMHEN, the paper presents impacts of CC on flooding and salinity intrusion in Cuu Long Delta. By 2050, the maximal flooded area which is more than 0.5 m depth can be up to 68.3% of the entire area of Cuu Long Delta. The maximum distance of salinity intrusion increases in the main rivers can reach by 10 km by the middle of the 21st century. The area affected by salinity intrusion at 4‰ occupies 41%...
SWAT model was used to assess the impacts of climate change on the streamflow of Ben Hai River Basin. The daily streamflow for 1979 - 1996 and 1997 - 2006 was used to calibrate and validate the SWAT model, respectively. Nash efficiency values for the daily comparison were 0.72 for the calibration period and 0.74 for the validation period. Three scenarios were analyzed relative to the baseli ne with 28-year time series. A doubling of the atmospheric C02 content to 660 ppm (while holding other climatic variables) resulted in a 7.
This paper presents an analysis of the benefits of climate change adaptation from small and medium scale hydropower plants in Lao Cai Province. Lao Cai is a mountainous province with high hydropower potential. Totally 116 small and medium hydropower projects in different stages of development have been identified with installed capacities ranging from 0.9 MW to 60 MW. Based on the results of statistic downscaling, four climate change scenarios were developed for the Lao Cai province area.
The previous edition of Energy Technology Perspectives(ETP), published in summer
2008, called for an energy technology revolution to tackle the undesirable
consequences of our current patterns of energy supply and use. It also highlighted
that, if we did not alter course, concerns about energy security and the threat of
dangerous climate change would only become much worse. So what – if any –
progress have we made over the last two years in meeting these challenges?
At first sight, it may seem as though not much has changed.
As a country which contains significant concentrations of population in fragile mountain eco-
systems, expanding arid zones, various regions which are subject to periodic flooding, increasing
deforestation and environmental degradation and high levels of poverty, Bolivia is particularly
vulnerable to climate change. Its damaging impact can be seen in a range of phenomena such as
increasingly severe and frequent flooding and landslides and the accelerated melting of tropical
Abstract. In this study, we assessed the impact of sea level rise, one of the most ascertained consequences of global climate change, for water levels in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD). We used a hydraulic model to compute water levels from August to November – when ﬂooding is presently critical – under sea level rise scenarios of 20 cm (= 20) and 45
Natural resource managers and conservationists are coming to grips with the fact that
rapid global warming and associated climate changes are already having a considerable impact
on the world’s ecological systems. More and larger shifts are expected, even in the best-case
scenarios for greenhouse gas emissions reductions and future warming. These climate changes
are ushering in a fundamental shift in natural resource management and conservation, to help
natural systems withstand and adapt to new climate conditions.
Most formal modelling in the past has used as a starting point a scenario of 2-3°C
warming. In this temperature range, the cost of climate change could be equivalent to
a permanent loss of around 0-3% in global world output compared with what could
have been achieved in a world without climate change. Developing countries will
suffer even higher costs.
However, those earlier models were too optimistic about warming: more recent
evidence indicates that temperature changes resulting from BAU trends in emissions
may exceed 2-3°C by the end of this century.
Changing climate and rainfall patterns are expected to have significant impacts on agricultural
productivity, especially in arid and semi‐arid regions that are already marginal for agriculture.
Most climate modeling scenarios indicate that the dry lands of West and Central Asia and North
Africa, for instance, will be severely affected by droughts and high temperatures in the years to
come. This could lead to land degradation and agricultural expansion.
In many ways, this publication provides an initial assessment
of the financial architecture required for developing a post
2012 regime and presents an overview of what level of
resources and measures would be needed for successfully
financing the international response to climate change,
for making future climate change policies a success and
ultimately, for crafting a climate-secure world for all.
In all three cities, there is likely to be an increase in
the number of persons exposed to flooding in 2050
under different climate scenarios compared to a situa-
tion without climate change. For instance, in Bangkok
in 2050, the number of persons affected (flooded
for more than 30 days) by a 1-in-30-year event will
rise sharply for both the low and high emission sce-
narios—by 47 percent and 75 percent respectively—
compared to those affected by floods in a situation
without climate change.
The answer to this question is partly a matter of perspective. Current scientific evidence
suggests that to mitigate the risk of dangerous climate change, global GHG emissions
must be reduced by 60 to 80 percent by mid-century,
equivalent to many billions of
tons of annual reductions. In this context, the contribution of the voluntary carbon offset
market – even under the most optimistic demand scenarios – is likely to be small.
Climate change may initially have small positive effects for a few developed
countries, but is likely to be very damaging for the much higher temperature
increases expected by mid- to late-century under BAU scenarios.
In higher latitude regions, such as Canada, Russia and Scandinavia, climate change
may lead to net benefits for temperature increases of 2 or 3°C, through higher
agricultural yields, lower winter mortality, lower heating requirements, and a possible
boost to tourism.
Divided into four groups, the participants were asked to create scenarios of what could happen to the country once a Black government took over. Not what they wanted to or feared would happen. But what could. The participants though had one thing in common. They were deeply disaffected by the stalemate and wanted change.
Any study forecasting conditions four decades
hence will be faced with large uncertainties and
these need to be borne in mind in interpreting the
results of this study. One uncertainty concerns
the pathway of GHG emissions. To address that
issue, the city case studies examined both a high
and a low GHG emissions scenario to bracket the
likely future conditions. In the climate change
downscaling methodologies, there are uncertain-
ties in forecasting the increase in extreme and
seasonal precipitation under the different sce-