Forecasting techniques

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  • This study briefly summarizes the thunderstorm activities in Vietnam. To predict thunderstorms in the Noi Bai Airport region, the thunderstorm indices are calculated for 64 grid points nearby Noi Bai region from the predicted meteorological fields with RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modeling System) model. The forecast procedure for thunderstorm is built for this region with four prediction factors, such as CAPEmax, Kimax, SI min, Vtmax in the forecast threshold of 0.6. As a result, the occurrence of thunderstorms reaches 80% for the duration of 36 hours.

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  • Forecasting is an essential element of capital budgeting.Capital budgeting requires the commitment of significant funds today in the hope of long term benefits. The role of forecasting is the estimation of these benefits.

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  • The focus in this book is on the study of market risk from a quantitative point of view. The emphasis is on presenting commonly used state-of-the-art quantitative techniques used in finance for the management of market risk and demonstrate their use employing the principal two mathematical programming languages, R and Matlab. All the code in the book can be downloaded from the book’s website at www.financialrisk

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  • What distinguishes point of view editing is that the object is shown from the character’s optical vantage point – i.e. directly through the character’s eyes. (So if the character is drunk, for example, this might mean that the shot is deliberately out of focus with the camera moving from side to side – a rolling shot. Some of the most famous examples of the Point of View shot (POV) are to be found in the films of Alfred Hitchcock. (Martin Scorsese discusses Hitchcock’s use of POV shots in part one of the documentary series, the American Cinema. This technique is...

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  • Microblogging websites such as Twitter offer a wealth of insight into a population’s current mood. Automated approaches to identify general sentiment toward a particular topic often perform two steps: Topic Identification and Sentiment Analysis. Topic Identification first identifies tweets that are relevant to a desired topic (e.g., a politician or event), and Sentiment Analysis extracts each tweet’s attitude toward the topic. Many techniques for Topic Identification simply involve selecting tweets using a keyword search.

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  • This chapter presents the following content: Quantitative approaches to forecasting, components of a time series, measures of forecast accuracy, smoothing methods, trend projection, trend and seasonal components, regression analysis, qualitative approaches.

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  • Chapter 16 - Time series and forecasting. When you have completed this chapter, you will be able to: Define the components of a time series, compute moving average, determine a linear trend equation, compute a trend equation for a nonlinear trend, use a trend equation to forecast future time periods and to develop seasonally adjusted forecasts, determine and interpret a set of seasonal indexes, deseasonalize data using a seasonal index, test for autocorrelation.

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  • .This page intentionally left blank .Capital Budgeting This book explains the financial appraisal of capital budgeting projects. The coverage extends from the development of basic concepts, principles and techniques to the application of them in increasingly complex and real-world situations. Identification and estimation (including forecasting) of cash flows, project appraisal formulae and the application of net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR) and other project evaluation criteria are illustrated with a variety of calculation examples.

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  • In the early 1980s, as the editor-in-chief of Commodities magazine, I was privy to a number of different trading ideas and techniques— so many, in fact, it was difficult to determine which was best or sometimes which had merit. This was during the heyday of innovations in the futures markets with the introduction of the cashsettlement concept in eurodollar futures, futures on broad-based stock indexes, crude oil futures, the pilot program for options on futures, and a number of other new contracts in areas where futures and options did not exist before.

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  • Technological change is today central to the theory of economic growth (Teixeira and Fortuna, 2010). It is recognized as an important driver of productivity growth and the emergence of new products from which consumers derive welfare (Verspagen, 2010).

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  • Using a bottom up approach, totals are aggregated from 2,490 discrete individual product group lines.  Each of these lines uses specific data sources and can be analysed individually, unlike traditional  studies which often group together data sources.   Forecasts are calculated using the same principles as for determining market value and as such can be  applied on a line by line basis. This allows the identification of high growth areas within a particular  sub‐sector.

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  • From the interior of the Sun, to the upper atmosphere and near-space environment of Earth, and outward to a region far beyond Pluto where the Sun’s influence wanes, advances during the past decade in space physics and solar physics—the disciplines NASA refers to as heliophysics—have yielded spectacular insights into the phenomena that affect our home in space. This report, from the National Research Council’s (NRC’s) Committee for a Decadal Strategy in Solar and Space Physics, is the second NRC decadal survey in heliophysics.

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  • You need to take advantage of any opportunity you have to gain commitment from your guest. You do not want to let the opportunity to close a sale pass you by. Closing too soon rather than too late allows you to get a peek at the person’s intentions or to gauge their interest level. By using assumptive statements and mini-commitment questions, you will be able to read your prospect better, and customize your tour and presentation to match their mood and buying habits.

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  • We modelled potential impacts from a decline in international students, initially through the  construction of a Baseline case for growth which largely held prior to current trends. From a  growth  forecast  for  2010  of  214,212  students, we model  this  baseline  and  three  realistic  scenarios.

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  • Ibbotson’s earlier work (with numerous co-authors) has documented the past returns of the major asset classes, thus revealing the payoffs received for taking various types of risk, and has presented an approach to forecasting future asset class returns. The asset classes that Ibbotson and his associates are best known for studying are stocks, bonds, bills, and consumer goods (inflation).

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  • A number of positive factors underpin this forecast. Investment is forecast to provide the largest proportionate increase in the components of demand. In 2006, investment growth of 4 per cent is expected, substantially higher than the 2.1 per cent figure for 2005. Much of the improvement can be traced to Germany where business sentiment appears to be strong, thereby prompting an expectation of increased investment. The strong investment performance is expected to persist into 2007 with a growth rate of 3.5 per cent forecast. ...

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  • We investigate this possibility using a two-stage-least-squares approach: the first stage involves a regression of actual fiscal consolidation on the forecast of fiscal consolidation; and the second stage is a regression of the growth forecast error on the instrumented values of actual fiscal consolidation obtained in the first stage. As Table 3 reports, the first stage is strong, and the slope coefficient is 1.057 (t-statistic = 5.714). This coefficient close to 1 indicates that, on average, actual consolidation was neither smaller nor larger than expected.

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  • Critical loads are typically expressed as deposition loading rates of one or more pollutants in amount per area per year (e.g., kilo- grams per hectare per year (kg/ha/yr)). Critical loads are based on changes to specific biological or chemical indicators such as species composition of a given ecosystem (e.g., grassland) or biotic community (e.g., understory plants or tree-dwelling lichens) or acid neu- tralizing capacity (ANC) in soils, streams or lakes. Because different sensitive receptors (e.g.

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  • Journal writing is a technique that has been promoted by educators in many fields, including nursing, counseling and management, as a means of facilitating reflective practice and stimulating critical thinking (for a review see Bain et al., 1999). In the field of teacher education reflection is widely acknowledged and promoted as a criti- cal element in the professional development of teachers (Zeichner, 1992; Calderhead & Gates, 1993).

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  • Chapter 7 - Forecasting share price movements. After studying this chapter you will be able to understand the factors that determine the price of a firm’s shares, contrast fundamental analysis techniques with technical analysis, explain the theoretical concepts of the random walk and efficient market market hypotheses.

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