Heterogeneous beliefs

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  • The model presented is also related to the literature in limited risk sharing and participation constraints (Kehoe and Levine (1993), Kocherlakota (1996) and Zhang (1997)). More recently, Alvarez and Jermann (2000, 2001) showed that these participation constraints can be modelled as endogenous portfolio constraints, which they denote solvency constraints. Besides extending this strand of the literature for the case of heterogeneous beliefs, I solve this problem in continuous time for the …rst time, thus generalizing it to the case of in…nite possible states.

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  • Legal and ethical questions of control, supervision and consent in connection with such smart-home technology have in this connection played an important role for us. According to "Eldres IT-forum" (an IT-forum for the elderly) “elderly people” are those above 55 years, and they represent one fourth of the Norwegian population. The elderly are a heterogeneous group with very different needs and qualifications. Their economic capability, degree of education, their health and degree of functional ability greatly vary.

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  • In a recent contribution, Gallmeyer and Holli…eld (2008) propose a model with heterogeneous beliefs and short sale constraints. They are able to show some e¤ects of heterogeneous beliefs and of short sales constraints on equilibrium volatility at a …xed point in time through extensive simulations. However, their constraints are imposed exogenously, while the rich dynamics obtained in this paper come from the endogenous solvency constraints and binding regimes which arise naturally from limited commitment....

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  • Nonlinearity, Bifurcation and Chaos - Theory and Application is an edited book focused on introducing both theoretical and application oriented approaches in science and engineering. It' contains 12 chapters, and is recommended for university teachers, scientists, researchers, engineers, as well as graduate and post-graduate students either working or interested in the field of nonlinearity, bifurcation and chaos.

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  • We affirm the right of freedom of expression within our community and also affirm our commitment to the highest standards of civility and decency towards all. We recognize the right of every individual to think and speak as dictated by personal belief, to express any idea, and to disagree with or counter another's point of view, limited only by university regulations governing time, place and manner. We promote open expression of our individuality and our diversity within the bounds of courtesy, sensitivity and respect.

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  • The picture of the market that results from our experiments, surprisingly, confirms both the efficient- market academic view and the traders’ view. But each is valid under different circumstances—in different regimes. In both circumstances, we initiate our traders with heterogeneous beliefs clustered randomly in an interval near homogeneous rational expectations. We find that if our agents adapt their forecasts very slowly to new observations of the market’s behavior, the market converges to a rational-expectations regimes.

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  • If, on the other hand, we allow the traders to adapt to new market observations at a more realistic rate, heterogeneous beliefs persist, and the market self-organizes into a complex regime. A rich “market psychology”—a rich set of expectations—becomes observable. Technical trading emerges as a profitable activity, and temporary bubbles and crashes occur from time to time. Trading volume is high, with times of quiescence alternating with times of intense market activity.

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  • I consider a continuous-time "two-trees" pure-exchange economy with in…nite horizon. There is a single consumption good which serves as the numeraire. There are two types of investors who are heterogeneous in endowments, beliefs, and enforcement technology. Heterogeneity in endowments and beliefs provide incentives for trade in the …nancial markets, which is driven by risk sharing motives and sentiment, respectively.

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  • The natural question is whether these heterogeneous expectations co-evolve into homogeneous rational-expectations beliefs, upholding the efficient-market theory, or whether richer individual and collective behavior emerges, upholding the traders’ viewpoint and explaining the empirical market phenomena mentioned above. We answer this not analytically—our model with its fully heterogeneous expectations it is too complicated to admit of analytical solutions—but computationally.

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  • In collaborative planning activities, since the agents are autonomous and heterogeneous, it is inevitable that conflicts arise in their beliefs during the planning process. In cases where such conflicts are relevant to the t~t~k at hand, the agents should engage in collaborative negotiation as an attempt to square away the discrepancies in their beliefs. This paper presents a computational strategy for detecting conflicts regarding proposed beliefs and for engaging in collaborative negotiation to resolve the conflicts that warrant resolution.

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