Inflation dynamics

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  • For the past fifteen years the New Keynesian model has served as a frame of reference for analyses of fluctuations and stabilization policies.1 That framework has allowed the rigor and internal consistency of dynamic general equilibrium models to be combined with typically Keynesian assumptions, like monopolistic competition and nominal rigidities, thus setting the stage for a meaningful, welfarebased analysis of the effects of alternative monetary policy rules.

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  • The government liability nominal yield curves are derived from UK gilt prices and General Collateral (GC) repo rates. The real yield curves are derived from UK index-linked bond prices (section 1 below describes these instruments). By appealing to the Fisher relationship, the implied inflation term structure is calculated as the difference of instantaneous nominal forward rates and instantaneous real forward real rates (section 2 makes clear exactly what these terms mean).

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  • The regression results also imply that expected inflation has a substantial effect on expected long-run real equity returns. In other words, in addition to the negative effect on stock prices associated with its effect on expected earnings, higher expected inflation also raises long- run required returns. Roughly speaking, a one percentage point increase in expected inflation increases required long-run real stock returns about a percentage point; equivalently, it reduces the current price of stocks about 20 percent.

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  • Because of the small size of the new member states, the enlargement will affect the Euro Area’s growth and inflation rates only to a limited extent. Both rates will nevertheless rise slightly without affecting the dynamics. Whereas the higher growth rate may not have any impact on the functioning of the Euro Area, the higher trend inflation rate might affect monetary policy. Of course, the impact will in all likelihood remain small, however the definition of price stability may have to be considered and marginally adjusted.

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  • (BQ) Part 2 book "Macroeconomics" has contents: Consumption; investment; money supply, money demand, and the banking system; stabilization policy; government debt and budget deficits; aggregate supply and the short run tradeoff between inflation and unemployment; a dynamic model of aggregate demand and aggregate supply,...and other contents.

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