Reducing uncertainty

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  • This book could have been called Estimating and Planning Agile Projects. Instead, it’s called Agile Estimating and Planning. The difference may appear subtle but it’s not. The title makes it clear that the estimating and planning processes must themselves be agile. Without agile estimating and planning, we cannot have agile projects.

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  • Information about climate1 is used to make decisions every day. From farmers deciding which crops to plant next season to mayors in large cities deciding how to prepare for future heat waves, and from an insurance company assessing future flood risks to a national security planner assessing future conflict risks from the impacts of drought, users of climate information span a vast array of sectors in both the public and private spheres. Each of these communities has different needs for climate data, with different time horizons (see Box 1) and different tolerances for uncertainty...

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  • This book could have been called Estimating and Planning Agile Projects. Instead, it’s called Agile Estimating and Planning. The difference may appear subtle but it’s not. The title makes it clear that the estimating and planning processes must themselves be agile. Without agile estimating

    pdf313p transang3 30-09-2012 28 8   Download

  • Under the Clean Air Act, particulate matter (PM) is one of the major air pollutants for which National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) are to be established on the basis of the scientific evidence on risks to human health. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), other federal and state government agencies, and nongovernment organizations are conducting a major multiyear research effort to improve scientific understanding of airborne PM and its effects on human health.

    pdf373p mnemosyne75 02-02-2013 22 6   Download

  • Because time-series studies focus on a given geographic location over a number of years, factors that are often thought to influence the health of the population, such as percentage of smokers, income level, occupational exposure to pollutants, access to medical care and age distribution, do not need to be incorporated into the analysis as they are considered to remain relatively constant within the study area over time. Typically, the only other factors aside from pollution included in these models are weather variables and seasonal controls.

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  • The second problem with accounting profits is that, unlike cash flow, they exclude investments. A growing business will invariably have to invest more in working and fixed capital, so that it could easily have positive earnings, but cash could be draining away. On the other hand, depreciation is deducted in the calculation of earnings even though it does not involve any cash outlay. So for a mature business with assets still being depreciated, earnings could well understate cash flows. Third, earnings ignore the time value of money.

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  • In recent years, energy prices have become increasingly more expensive and volatile. This trend has added to auto ownership costs and uncertainty about future operating expenses. Moreover, parking in many of the world’s largest cities is limited and costly further adding to private vehicle expenditures. Many nations worldwide have adopted carsharing (or short-term auto access) as a means to reduce personal transportation costs and the negative impacts of widespread auto use including: congestion, inefficient land use, energy consumption, and emissions.

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  • Ryan (1988) performed an experiment with domestic chickens (Gallus domesticus) to establish the potential effects of ingested plastic particles on seabirds. They were fed with polyethylene pellets and the results indi- cated that ingested plastics reduce meal size by reducing the storage volume of the stomach and the feeding stimulus. He concluded that seabirds with large plastic loads have reduced food consumption, which limits their ability to lay down fat deposits, thus reducingfitness.

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  • Financial instruments, such as bank drafts and letter of credit, reduce some of the uncertainties of international transactions. A sight draft is usually prepared by the exporter and addressed to the importer, ordering the importer to pay on receipt of the goods and the draft.

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  • Carbon  sectors  is  forecast  to  exceed  growth  in  the more  established  Environmental  sector, where  many technologies (for example in Water and Waste Treatment) are already mature.   The Renewable Energy and Emerging Low Carbon sectors currently show a much flatter growth than  previously  forecast  for  the  period  2012  to  2015.  It  is  anticipated  that  as  economic  uncertainty  is  reduced and investment funds start to flow, these growth forecasts will rise once again.

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  • When planning how to reduce the threat of global warming and how to adapt to it, a very important piece of information is how intense the change will be. That implies estimating the trends of future concentrations of greenhouse gasses, and the potential future changes in temperature, precipitation, storm events and other climatic variables. These predictions are important not only to estimate the magnitude of the changes, but also to determine the uncertainty surrounding them.

    pdf692p lulaula 25-10-2012 41 7   Download

  • There is huge uncertainty about future budget deficits and their financing. Economists disagree about how quickly deficits should be reduced: some would stress deflation risks and others inflation risks. Even if economists were to agree, there would still be great uncertainty about political choices on macroeconomic policy. It is nevertheless certain that government debt/GDP ratios in major countries will continue to rise over the next few years. Even the optimistic G20 pronouncements do not envisage debt/GDP ratios in the advanced countries stabilising before 2016.

    pdf97p taisaovanchuavo 23-01-2013 22 6   Download

  • CHAPTER 11 MINIMIZING ENGINEERING EFFORT Charles R. Mischke, Ph.D., P.E. Professor Emeritus of Mechanical Engineering Iowa State University Ames, Iowa 11.1 INTRODUCTION/11.2 11.2 REDUCING THE NUMBER OF EXPERIMENTS /11.3 11.3 SIMILITUDE/11.7 11.4 OPTIMALITY/11.9 11.5 QUADRATURE/11.13 11.6 CHECKING/11.15 REFERENCES/11.

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  • Second, information should be thought of as better if it reduces the uncertainty surrounding some future cost or benefit. For instance, future liabilities are inherently uncertain. Information that can narrow the variance on estimates of those uncertain liabilities should be considered better information. Reduced variance is particularly valuable when decision-makers are risk-averse, since a reduction in variance alone can lead to different decisions when there is risk aversion.

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  • Projects always involve a finite amount of uncertainty (risk) that may lead to problems and surprises during the project. Dealing with surprises requires more time, energy, and money than originally planned. Risk management can help reduce the likelihood and affects of risks. Risk management is important as it helps the team accomplish the project with as little trouble as possible. As a professional scientist, engineer, or project manager, you will be required to help get the job done. Excuses (whether real or imaginary) generally don't buy any sympathy.

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  • The plan of the paper is as follows. Section 1 argues that very high government debt/GDP ratios will increase uncertainty about the future path of interest rates. This will reduce the degree of asset substitutability between short-dated and long-dated paper, impairing the effectiveness of changes to the policy rate and making the short-term/long-term mix of government debt sales a more effective instrument of macroeconomic policy (Section 2). But the long-term interest rate on government bonds also has fundamental implications for financial stability (Section 3).

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  • Xu et al. Nanoscale Research Letters 2011, 6:355 NANO EXPRESS Open Access Quantum-squeezing effects of strained multilayer graphene NEMS Yang Xu1*, Sheping Yan1, Zhonghe Jin1* and Yuelin Wang2 Abstract Quantum squeezing can improve the ultimate measurement precision by squeezing one desired fluctuation of the two physical quantities in Heisenberg relation. We propose a scheme to obtain squeezed states through graphene nanoelectromechanical system (NEMS) taking advantage of their thin thickness in principle.

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  • An inflation indexed bond protects both investors and issuers from the uncertainty of inflation over the life of the bond.1 Like conventional bonds, indexed bonds pay interest at fixed intervals and return the principal at maturity. The fundamental difference is that while conventional bonds make payments that are fixed in nominal dollars (and thus are called nominal bonds), indexed bonds make payments that are fixed in real terms (and thus are called real bonds).

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  • Facilitate access to information on the health effects of indoor and outdoor air pollution and methods for reducing the risk. Conduct health impact assessments to determine the magnitude of the health effects associated with changes in air pollution. This information can be used to identify cost- effective measures to improve public health, identify critical uncertainties and suggest productive areas of research. Facilitate country actions to strengthen air quality management.

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  • Semi-supervised word alignment aims to improve the accuracy of automatic word alignment by incorporating full or partial manual alignments. Motivated by standard active learning query sampling frameworks like uncertainty-, margin- and query-by-committee sampling we propose multiple query strategies for the alignment link selection task. Our experiments show that by active selection of uncertain and informative links, we reduce the overall manual effort involved in elicitation of alignment link data for training a semisupervised word aligner. ...

    pdf6p hongdo_1 12-04-2013 11 3   Download


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