The business cycle in investing

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  • The recent credit crisis in the United States ushered in a new era of uncertainty. In some ways it was just another bubble in a long line of fi nancial manias. Like any other bubble, it was born out of an extended period of easy money that fueled prosperity, engendered speculation, and ended in a spectacular crash. In some very important ways, however, the lingering impacts are different than the bubbles of recent memory.

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  • Chapter 6 - Understanding business cycles. This chapter describe the business cycle and its phases; describe the typical patterns of resource use fluctuation, housing sector activity, and external trade sector activity, as an economy moves through the business cycle; describe theories of the business cycle;...

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  • This paper documents evidence of business cycle synchronization in selected Asia Pacific countries in the 1990s. We explain business cycle synchronization by the channel of international capital flows. Using the VAR method, we find that most Asian countries experience boom-bust cycles following capital inflows, where the boom in output is mostly driven by consumption and investment. Empirical evidence shows that capital flows in the region are highly correlated, which supports the conclusion that capital market liberalization has contributed to business cycle synchronization in Asia.

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  • Recently, much academic and regulatory interest has been concentrated on the problem of high-yield, junk bond default. Arguably, corporate bonds have defaulted for many reasons, including factors specific to the individual issuing firm, variables corresponding to the industry in which it operates, and macroeconomic forces affecting the business cycle. Individual factors include the firm's leverage, industry type, agency problem, riskiness of the investment decisions, managerial integrity, efficiency and investment savvy together with institutional operating costs.

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  • The purpose of this paper is to evaluate if financial asset prices and, in par- ticular, sectoral stock prices can help to predict real economic growth. Earlier studies that have examined the predictive content of stock prices have employed broad-based indices. However, there are reasons to believe that some sectors making up the stock indices are more closely linked to the business cycle than others.

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  • Beginning in the 1980s, microfinance pioneers started shifting the focus. Instead of farmers, they turned to people in villages and towns running “non-farm enterprises”—like making handicrafts, livestock-raising, and running small stores. The shift brought advantages: non-farm businesses tend to be less vulnerable to the vagaries of weather and crop prices, and they can generate income on a fairly steady basis. The top microlenders boast repayment rates of 98 percent and higher, achieved without requiring that loans be secured with collateral.

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  • Combining investment in public transportation capital and operations within the US, the analysis indicates that an average of 36,000 jobs are supported for one year, per billion dollars of annual spending on public transportation, given the existing mix of operations (71 percent) and capital (29 percent) expenditures.

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  • Chapter 11 - Economic growth and the investment decision. This chapter describe and compare factors favoring and limiting economic growth in developed and developing economies, describe the relationship between the long-run rate of stock market appreciation and the sustainable growth rate of the economy, explain the importance of potential gross domestic product (GDP) and its growth rate in the investment decisions of equity and fixed-income investors,...

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  • Chapter 1 - Demand and supply analysis: Introduction. The focus of the reading is on demand and supply analysis (microeconomics): How are prices and quantities of transactions determined? The theory of the consumer deals with how consumers make choices, and the theory of the firm is how profit-maximizing firms make choices.

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  • Models begin with many simplifications (e.g., assumptions), but then we evaluate the model by comparing the implications of the model with what we observe in the real world. After studying this chapter you will be able to understand: Why show this? Because some who read about consumer theory may be concerned about the unrealistic nature of the models and thus may get too involved in how unrealistic the model is. The focus should be on understanding consumer choice theory and then examining what happens if more realism is introduced.

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  • Chapter 3 - Demand and supply analysis: The firm. This chapter focuses on decision making by the suppliers/producers of goods and services, whereas Chapter 2 examined the role of individuals in shaping the demand for goods and services.

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  • The market structure and the degree of competitiveness in the industry affect a firm’s pricing and output strategy and, eventually, its long-run profitability. Chapter 4 introduce the firm and market structures. Inviting you refer.

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  • Chapter 5 - Aggregate output, prices, and economic growth. This chapter calculate and explain gross domestic product (GDP) using expenditure and income approaches, compare the sum-of-value-added and value-of-final-output methods of calculating GDP, compare nominal and real GDP, and calculate and interpret the GDP deflator,....

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  • Chapter 7 - Monetary and fiscal policy. This chapter compare monetary and fiscal policy, compare monetary and fiscal policy, explain the money creation process, describe functions and definitions of money, describe theories of the demand for and supply of money, describe the roles and objectives of central banks,...

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  • Chapter 8 - International trade and capital flows. This chapter compare gross domestic product and gross national product, describe the benefits and costs of international trade, distinguish between comparative advantage and absolute advantage, explain the Ricardian and Heckscher–Olin models of trade and the source(s) of comparative advantage in each model,...

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  • Chapter 9 - Currency exchange rates. This chapter define an exchange rate, and distinguish between nominal and real exchange rates and spot and forward exchange rates; describe functions of and participants in the foreign exchange market; describe functions of and participants in the foreign exchange market;...

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  • Chapter 12 - Economics of regulation. This chapter sescribe classifications of regulations and regulators, describe uses of self-regulation in financial markets, describe the economic rationale for regulatory intervention, describe regulatory interdependencies and their effects, describe tools of regulatory intervention in markets,...

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  • Chapter 10 - Arbitrage pricing theory and multifactor models of risk and return. We begin by showing how the decomposition of risk into market versus firm-specific influences that we introduced in earlier cha pters can be extended to deal with the multifaceted nature of systematic risk. Multifactor models of security returns can be used to measure and manage exposure to each of many economy-wide factors such as business-cycle risk, interest or inflation rate risk, energy price risk, and so on.

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  • The book you just opened is different from most others on Excel that you might have seen. That’s because it focuses on a topic that is deeply important to us all: money. The novelist Rex Stout once wrote, facetiously, “The science of accounting has two main branches, first addition, and second subtraction.” I kept that in mind when I was casting about for the book’s theme. I wanted to write a book that would show people how to maximize profit, the result of combining those two branches.

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  • A second source for private sector expenditure on R&D is the “EU Industrial R&D Investment Scoreboard”, which has been conducted by the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS) that is part of the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission. The annual Scoreboard presents information on the world’s top 1400 companies ranked by their investments in R&D. It contains data drawn from companies’ accounts, most recently for the fiscal year 2009. 16 R&D indicators, such as R&D intensity, vary in line with the business cycle.

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