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Are Bonds Going to Outperform Stocks Over the Long Run? Not Likely.

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Are Bonds Going to Outperform Stocks Over the Long Run? Not Likely.

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Our analysis shows that it is cheaper for banks to raise capital during an economic expansion than in a recession. The low hurdle rate for investment in a boom can have a procyclical effect. It encourages credit growth that can further boost economic activity. From a prudential viewpoint, this evidence supports the rationale behind the introduction of countercyclical capital buffer requirements, which increase in booms and decline in busts. This would provide a concrete incentive for banks to build buffers when equity is relatively cheap, rather than having to do so after capital is depleted and the cost of...

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