Quan hệ ngoại thương Nhật Bản - Trung Quốc 10 năm đầu thế kỷ XXI

QUAN HE NGOAI THlTOTNG NHAT BAN - TRUNG QUOC<br /> 10 NAM DAU THE KY XXI<br /> N G U Y I N THANH BiNH'<br /> <br /> <br /> Tom tat: Trong nhung ndm dau cita lhe ki XXI, khu vice Dong Bac A tiep tuc ral vao tinh<br /> trgng cang thdng vc mat chi'nh tri. ^an cie hat nhan ciia Cpng hoa Ddn chu Nhdn ddn Trieu<br /> Tien, nguy co xay ra xung dgi qudn sic giua hai mien Trieu Tien, sir lranh chdp chii quyen a<br /> mot so hon ddo giua Nhdl Bdn v&i Trung Quoc, giCva Nhal Bdn v&i Hdn Quoc kho md gidi<br /> quyet trong mot s&m mot chieu. Tuy nhien ciing phdi thdy rdng, sir phu thuQC ldn nhau ve<br /> kinh le dd khien cho quan h4 thuong mgi giua cdc nir&c vdn tiep tuc phdt Irien viral qua<br /> nhung tr& nggi chinh tri. Dgc bi^l, v&i l0 the ve thi truong, nguon nhdn cong... Trung Quoc<br /> da lhay My tr& thdnh bgn hdng l&n nhdl cita Nhdt Bdn vd Hdn Quoc. VI vdy, bdi viet ndy se<br /> tap trung vdo phdn tich, ddnh gid quan h4 thirong mgi giua Nhcit Bdn vd Trung Qudc a<br /> nhiing ndm ddu cita the ki XXI ciing nhu ddnh gid trien vgng lrong thoi gian tai<br /> Til' khoa: Nhat Ban, Trung Quoc, Quan he, Ngoai ihuang<br /> <br /> <br /> C o the noi rang, tir khi buoc sang the<br /> ki mai thi cung la luc "giai doan<br /> nong am" trong quan he chinh tri gi&a hai<br /> do Nhat Ban xuat sang Trung Quoc 149,09<br /> ty USD, chiem 19,4% tong kim ngach xuat<br /> khau va nhap khau 152.75 ty USD, chiem<br /> nuac cung qua di. Tuy nhien, dicu co the 22,1% tong kim nhach nhap khau cua Nhat<br /> nhan ra ngay la quan he chinh tr; khong con Ban. Nhu bang 1 cho thay tir nam 2001 den<br /> tac dgng nhieu den cac moi quan he khac nam 2010, kim ngach ngoai thuang giua hai<br /> nhu trucrc day niia. Vi vay, quan he kinh te nuac tang truang manh hang nam, co nhtmg<br /> ma dac biet la quan he ngoai thuong giiia hai nam tang truang tren 30%. Trong do dang<br /> nuac van dang nam trong xu huang gia tang chu y la, trong 10 nSm nu> ngoai thucmg hai<br /> hang nam va tham chi neu nhin vao con so nuac da dat duoc nhirng moc het sue quan<br /> nguai ta con cam thay c6 ve nhu hai nuac trpng. Do la nam 2002 dat m6c 100 ty USD,<br /> khong nam trong giai doan nen kinh te loan nam 2006 dat mdc 200 ly USD va nam 2010<br /> cau dang khung hoang tram trong.<br /> dat mdc 300 ly USD. Nhu \i\\. kim ngach<br /> 1. Tong quan kim ngach ngoai thuong<br /> ngoai thuang hai chieu giira Nhat Ban va<br /> Nhat Ban -Trung Quoc 10 nam qua<br /> Trung Quoc trong muofi nam nay da 1cm hon<br /> Buac vao the ki XXI, nhat la ti!r khi Trung<br /> 3 lan, lu 85,73 ly USD vao nam 2000 da<br /> Quoc gia nhap To chuc Thuang mai The<br /> tang len dSn 301,86 ty USD vao nam 2010.<br /> gioi (WTO), quan he ngoai thuong Nhat Ban<br /> Con neu linh tir nam 1991 thi con so nay da<br /> - Trung Quoc da buac vao giai doan phat<br /> trien nhanh chong cliua tung thay. Den nSm tang len khoang 15 lan. Dac biet tir nam<br /> 2010, kim ngach ngoai thuang hai chieu 2009, Trung Quoc da vugt tren My va tra<br /> giira hai nuac da pha moc 300 ty USD, trong thanh d6i tac thuang mai Ion nhdt ctia Nhat<br /> Ban. (Xem them bang 1)<br /> <br /> Trung tam Nghien cix[x Nliat Ban, Vi?n Nghien ciru<br /> Dong B3c A<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> 12 NGHIEN Cdu CdNG B^C fl. sd 3(133) 3-2012<br /> Nghien cliu khoa hpc<br /> <br /> Bang 1: Kim ngach ngo^i thvong Nhdt-Trung tir nSm 1991dln 2010<br /> (Ban vi tinh: 1000 USD; %)<br /> <br /> Nam K i m ng^ch Til? K i m ngach Til? Tong kim Tile Can can<br /> xuat khau tang nhap khau tang ngach tang<br /> 1991 8.593.143 40,2 14.215.837 17,9 22.808.980 25,4 .'5.622.694<br /> 1992 11.949.063 39,1 16.952.841 19,3 28.901.904 26,7 •5.003.771<br /> 1993 17.273.051 44,6 20.564.766 21,3 37.837.816 30,9 •3.291.699<br /> 1994 18.681.576 8,2 27.556.049 34,0 46.247.625 22,2 •8.884.444<br /> 1995 21.930.845 17,4 35.922.311 30,3 57.853.157 25,1 •13.991.446<br /> 1996 21.889.808 -0,2 40.550.035 12,9 62.439.843 7,9 •18.660.227<br /> 1997 21.784.692 -0,5 42.066.036 3,7 63.850.728 2,3 •20.281.344<br /> 1998 20.021.591 -8,1 36.895.859 -12,3 56.917.450 -10,9 •16.847.268<br /> 1999 23.335.617 16,6 42.880.246 16,2 66.215.862 16,3 •19.544.629<br /> 2000 30.427526 30,4 55.303.372 29,0 85.730.890 29,5 •24.875.846<br /> 2001 31.090.723 2,2 58.104.744 5,1 89.195.467 4,0 •27.014.021<br /> 2002 39.885.578 28,2 61.691.604 6,2 101.557.182 13,9 •21.826.026<br /> 2003 57.219.157 43,5 75.192.802 21,9 132.411.959 30,4 •17.973.645<br /> 2004 73.818.019 29,0 94.227.211 25,3 168.045.230 26,9 •20.409.192<br /> <br /> 2005 80.340.099 8,8 109.104.815 15,8 189.444.914 12,7 •28.764.716<br /> <br /> 2006 92.581.689 15,6 118.516.332 8,6 211.368.021 11,6 •25.664.643<br /> <br /> 2007 109.060.309 17,5 127.643.646 7,7 236.703.955 12,0 •18.583.337<br /> <br /> 2008 124.035.383 13,7 142.337.115 11,5 266.372.498 12,5 •18.301.732<br /> <br /> 2009 109.666.065 -11,6 122.515.503 -13,9 232.181.568 -12,9 •12.849.438<br /> <br /> 2010 149.099.604 36,0 152.755.797 24,7 301.855.401 30,0 •3.656.193<br /> <br /> <br /> Nguin: Northwest Pacific Region Economic Center; http://www.near21.jp<br /> <br /> Ngoai ra, qua bang tren co the thay trong nguyen n h ^ noi tai ve tinh hinh kinh t€ va<br /> su6t 20 nam qua, chi trtt nam 1998 va nam chinh sach kinh te cua hai nuoc. d Nhat Ban<br /> 2009 la nam co kim ngach ngo?i thuong do kinh te va san xuat cong nghiep giam Sut<br /> lang trucmg am con lai la tSng Iruong rat cao. dan toi nhu cau nhap khau ttt Trung Quoc<br /> Nguyen nhSn co hai nam tang trudng am la cac thanh phSm do di?n tu, nguyen lieu giam<br /> do nam 1998 da xay ra cugc khiing hoang tai xuong. Mat khac, nguoi dan co xu huong<br /> chinh -tign te Chau A, tac d6ng xau den kinh that chat chi tieu nSn kim ngach nh$p khdu<br /> ti cila cac nuac Chau A noi chung cflng nhu do d$t may va thuc pham cung hi anh hucmg<br /> hai nucic noi rieng. Den nam 2009 la do manh. Doi voi phia Trung Quoc chii yeu la<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> NGHIEN Cdra CdNG B^C A S 6 3(133) 3-2012 13<br />  Nghien ciiu khoa hpc<br /> <br /> do thay doi chinh sdch xuat khau theo hudng thdng 3-2011 da gay ra thiet hai Idn cho nin<br /> giam hot xuat khau cic mat hang nguyen kinh li Nhgl Ban. Do dd cd thd thdy rdng<br /> lieu nhu than di, kim loai hiem hoac cac lo?i nam 2011, khdng chi kim nggch ngogi<br /> san pham lieu hao nhicu nang lupng... Ihuong vdi Trung Qudc bj giam siit md nhdp<br /> Li do khien kim nggch Ihuong itiai hai sieu vdi Trung Qudc cung ndm lrong<br /> nutjc tang nhanh trong khodng hon 10 n4m khuynh hudng tiep Uic bj ndi rpng. Theo con<br /> qua chti yeu la: do Trung Quoc gia nhap To so cua To chttc Xuc lien Thucmg mgi Nhgl<br /> chttc Thuong mgi The gidi nen thi trudng Bdn, kim nggch ngoai thucmg Nhdt Bdn -<br /> dugrc md rpng hon, cdc logi thue nhap khau Trung Qudc 6 lhdng ddu ndm 2011 dal<br /> dupc hg thSp, mttc sdng ciia ngudi dan dupc 163,15 ty USD, lrong do Nhdl Bdn nhap sieu<br /> nang cao keo lheo nhu cau stt dyng nhttng iin 69,25 li USD. Tuy nhien con sd tham<br /> hyl lren khdng phdi Id con sd chinh xdc va<br /> sdn pham co chat lupng cao. Ngodi ra, vi^c<br /> khdp nhau ndy bdi cdch thttc lhdng ke gitta<br /> cac doanh nghiep Nhat Bdn day mgnh dau tu<br /> hai ben khdng thdng nhat vdi nhau. Ciing<br /> vdo Trung Qudc vd nhap cdc sdn phdm trd<br /> gidng nhu My, Nhdt Bdn tinh cd kim ngach<br /> Igi. Tinh hinh kinh te Nhal Ban tram lang<br /> ngogi thuong vdi Ddc khu Hdng Kdng vao<br /> trong thdi gian ddi khien cho ngudi dan Nhdt<br /> kim nggch ngogi thuong vdi Trung Qudc tuy<br /> chuyin sang su dung nhttng sdn phdm lieu<br /> nhien, Trung Qudc lai tach rieng ra vi cho<br /> diing re cung la nguyen nhan quan trpng day<br /> rdng dd la cdch tinh nhdm tao ra cd de gay<br /> mgnh kim ngach ngoai thucmg hai nudc tdng<br /> sue ep len cdc mat hdng xudt khdu ciia Tmng<br /> nhanh.<br /> Qudc sang cdc nudc ndy. Day chinh Id li do<br /> 2. Can can thvccm% mai khiSn cho con sd bieu thj can can thucmg<br /> Nhin vdo kim ngach ngogi thucmg gitta mgi giua hai nudc ludn bi venh nhau. Theo<br /> hai nudc cd Ihl thay, trong sudt 20 ndm qua con sd dupc cdng bd trong cudn "Sdch xanh<br /> Nhat Bdn ludn Id nudc nhap sieu ttt Trung ngogi giao Nhgl Bdn" ndm 2011 dura tren so<br /> Qudc, tham chi ndm 2005 dat dinh diem ve lifu cua hai quan Trung Qudc thi khong<br /> nhap sieu vdi tham hut gan 29 ty USD. Sau nhOng Trung Qudc khdng xudt sieu sang<br /> do, con sd nay cd chieu hudng lhu h?p lai, Nhgt Bdn md ngupc lai cdn bi nhgp si6u lir<br /> den nam 2010 chi cdn xdp xi 3,7 ly USD. Nhgl Bdn. Chdng han nam 2008, Trung<br /> Vdi xu thd thu hep thdm hyt nhu vay nen Qudc xudt khdu sang Nhat Ban la 116,132 li<br /> ddu ndm 2011, To chuc Xuc lien Thuong USD vd nhdp khdu Id 150,6 ty USD, nhap<br /> mgi Nhgt Ban da dua ra nhdn djnh rdng sieu 34,46 ty USD. Nam 2009 Trung Qu6c<br /> trong ndm 2011 Nhdt Ban se trd thdnh nudc xuat khdu 97,9 ty USD vd nhdp khdu ttt Nhgt<br /> xudt sieu thuc su sang Trung Qudc. Nhung Bdn li 130,93 ty USD, nhap sieu 33,02 li<br /> ddng tiec Id vu sieu dpng ddt, sdng thdn hdi<br /> <br /> <br /> 14 NGHIEN Cdo CONG B^C |^ S() 3(133) 3-2012<br /> Nghien ciiu khoa hpc<br /> <br /> USD . Tuy nhidn con sd dupc cdng bd tren phuang xudl khau vdo nudc minh. Han ntta,<br /> mang cua Trung Qudc lai cho thay con sd hinh thttc ngoai thucmg cung da khdng cdn<br /> thdm hut thuong mai cua Trung Qudc'vdi gidng vdi truyen lhdng Id chu ydu xuat khau<br /> Nhat Ban khdng ldn ddn nhu vdy. Chdng han, nhirng mat hdng hogc nguyen lieu cua nudc<br /> nhu d bdng 1 thi lrong ndm 2010 Trung minh sdn xuat sang nudc ddi ldc ntta. Hien<br /> Qudc xuat sieu sang Nhgl Bdn Id 3,6 ty USD nay, lrong kim nggch thuang mgi hai nudc,<br /> nhtmg con sd cua phia Trung Qudc dua ra la phdn kim ngach do cdc nhd ddu tu Nhgt Bdn<br /> Nhdt Ban xudt sieu sang Trung Qudc 5,56 ty nhgp vdo de gia cdng, sdn xuat rdi xudl<br /> USD vd tu tham hut Ihuong mai cdng ddn ngupc lrd lai nudc minh chidm phan khdng<br /> cua Trung Qudc vdi Nhdl Ban lu ndm 2001 nhd lrong ldng kim ngach ngoai Ihuong cua<br /> ddn 2010 Id 24 ty USD'. Ro rdng, nam 1997 hai nudc nen khd cd the tdch bach cd nhdp<br /> Hong Kdng da dupc trao trd cho Trung Qudc sieu thyc su hay khdng. Chdng han, nam<br /> nen cho du Trung Qudc thuc hien chinh sdch 2010 long kim ngach ngogi thuong cua<br /> •"mdt nudc hai che dp" thi Hdng Kdng van Trung Quoc Id 2.972,76 ty USD thi lrong dd<br /> thudc Trung Qudc. Nhung vdi cdch linh lich kim nggch ciia cdc doanh nghiep cd vdn dau<br /> lu nudc ngodi Id 1.600,03 ty USD, chiem<br /> Hdng Kdng ra, qud thuc Trung Qudc da<br /> tren 53,8% (ndm 2006, con sd nay chiem tdi<br /> trdnh dupc sttc ep cua My vd Nhdt Ban ddi<br /> 58,9%). Cu lhd, kim ngach xudt khiu dal<br /> vdi vdn dd xudl sieu. Chdng han nhu thay d<br /> 862,3 ly USD vd nhdp khdu dgt 738,0 ty<br /> bdng 3, vdi qui md thi trudng nhu Hdng<br /> USD^. Chinh vi vgy mi khdng cd ben nio<br /> Kdng thi vung lanh thd ndy khdng thd Id thj<br /> dua ra ydu cdu ddi tdc han che xudt khdu<br /> trudng xudt khdu ldn den nhu vdy ciia Trung<br /> hogc keu gpi md eua thi trudng hon nua. Cd<br /> Qudc. Nhung vdi viec xudt khdu qua trung<br /> chdng Id giua hai nudc xdy ra va chgm xoay<br /> gian Hdng Kdng hoac cdc nhd ddu tu Trung<br /> quanh viec chdng bdn phd gid hogc an lodn<br /> Qudc chuydn sang sdn xuat tai Hdng Kdng<br /> lhuc phdm dd han che mdt vdi mdt hdng nio<br /> dd xudt khdu, Trung Qudc se ne trdnh dupc<br /> do.<br /> nhieu vdn de.<br /> Tuy nhien, hien nay cho du Nhdt Bin hay 3. Ty trong ngoai thuong giira hai nirdc<br /> Trung Qudc bi nhdp sieu v i nhdp sieu bao Khi xem xet quan he thuang mgi gitta hai<br /> nhieu di ntta thi ciing khd cd the xdy ra va nudc, ty trpng thuong mgi cung Id diem<br /> chgm ngoai thttong gidng nhtt Nhdt Bdn vd ddng chtt y. Mac du xdt theo kim nggch<br /> My trttoc ddy. Dd Id vi hien nay ci hai nudc thuong mgi, hai nudc deu Id ban hing Idn<br /> ddu Id thinh vidn cila WTO ndn khdng thd nhit cua nhau nhung ndu xet lheo ty trpng<br /> su dung hang rdo thud quan de hgn che ddi thuong mgi thi cd su khdc biet tuong ddi Idn.<br /> <br /> ' Sdch xanh ngo^i giao Nh^t Ban, nam 2011, tr.59. ^ S6 li?u trong "Sdch trang thuong mai"nam 2011, tr.2<br /> ^ So li?u trin trang www://China.org.cn Mn ti^ng Nh$t.<br /> <br /> <br /> NGHIEN CCira CdNG B^C d, l6 3(133) 3-2012 15<br />  Nghien ciiu khoa hpc<br /> <br /> Bang 2: Cic b?n hing chinh ciia Nhat Bdn tii'2005 din 2010<br /> A: Nhat Ban xuat khau Ban vi tinh: 1000 USD; %<br /> <br /> >»R1 2005 2006 2007<br /> TT ^ ~ ^ \ ^ Kim nggch Tyl^ Kim nggch Tyl? Kim nggch Tyl?<br /> My 134.888.541 22,6(1) 145.650.923 22,5(1) 143.382.531 20,1 (1)<br /> Trung Quoc SO.340.099 13,4 (2) 92.85l.6S9 14,3(2) 109.060.309 15,3(2)<br /> Han Quoc 46.880.441 7,8(3) 50.320.970 7,8 (3) 54.199.128 7,6(3)<br /> Dai Loan 43.909.604 7,3 (4) 44.151.571 6,8(4) 44.779.680 6,3 (4)<br /> Hong Kong 36.132.031 6,0(5) 36.468.882 5,6(5) 38.818.243 5,5(5)<br /> Toan the gio'i 598.215.206 100,0 647.290.458 100,0 712,734.968 100,0<br /> 2008 2009 2010<br /> Kim nggch Tyl« Kim nggch Tyl? Kim nggch Tyl?<br /> My 136.200,022 17,6(1) 93.653.317 16,1(2) 118.199.405 15,4(2)<br /> Trung Quoc 124.035.383 16,0 (2) 109.630.428 18,9 (1) 149.086.369 19,4(1)<br /> Han Quoc 58.984.805 8,8 (3) 47.247.548 8,1 (3) 62.053.705 8,1 (3)<br /> Dai Loan 45.707.555 5,9(4) 36.426.005 6,3 (4) 52.206.626 6,8(4)<br /> Hong Kong 39.988.208 5,2 (5) 31,867,550 5,5 (5) 42.145.232 5,5(5)<br /> Toan the gioi 775.917,548 100,0 580.786.595 100,0 767.025.013 100,0<br /> <br /> B: Nhat Ban nhap khau<br /> <br /> 2005 2006 2007<br /> TT ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ Kim nggch Tyle Kim nggch Tyl? Kim ngach Tyle<br /> Trung Quoc 109.104.815 21,0 (1) 118.516.332 20,5 (I) 127.643.646 20,6 (1)<br /> My 64.497.479 12,4 (2) 68.070.636 11,8(2) 70.836.207 11,4(2)<br /> A Rap Xe-iit 28.738.981 5,5 (3) 37.215.435 6,4 (3) 35.349.644 5,7(3)<br /> Tieu vuong quoc 25.324.338 4,9 (4) 31.589.690 5,5 (4) 32.298.370 5,2(4)<br /> A-Rap<br /> Australia 24.609.086 4,7 (5) 27.947.235 4,8 (5) 31.161.314 5,0(5)<br /> Toan the gioi 518,637.785 100,0 579.283.603 100,0 621.084,093 100,0<br /> . 2008 2009 2010<br /> Kim nggch Tyl? Kim nggch Tyl? Kim nggch Tyl?<br /> Trung Quoc 142.337.115 18,8 (1) 122.545.120 22,2(1) 152.800.714 22,1 (1)<br /> My 77.017.921 10,2 (2) 59.044.361 10,7(2) 67.170.633 9,7(2)<br /> A Rap Xe-ut 50.469.877 6,7(3) 29.204.199 5,3 (4) 35.762.553 5,2(4)<br /> Tieu vuong 46.414.599 6,1 (5) 22.727.249 4,1 (5) 29.183.328 4,2(5)<br /> qu6c ARgp<br /> Australia '47.280.190 6,3 (4) 34.779.869 6,3 (3) 45.002.770 6,5 (3)<br /> Toan the gi6i 756.086.221 100,0 552.251.955 100,0 691.447.208 100,0<br /> <br /> Nguon; Dua tren so lifu thong ke hdng ndm ciia To chiec Xuc tien Thuang mgi Nhdt Bdn<br /> Chu thich: Con so trong ngoac chi vj tri trong ndm do<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> 16 NGHliN Cda CONG BflC A Sd 3(133) MWl<br /> Nghien ciiu khoa hpc<br /> <br /> Nhu thdy d bdng trdn, li le kim ngach xudt Thu nhdt, xet ve kim nggch thuong mai,<br /> khdu ciia Nhdt Ban sang Trung Qudc chidm cho den nhttng ndm ddu cua thd ki XXI,<br /> trong tdng kim ngach xudt khdu hdng ndm Nhgl Bdn li bgn hing Idn nhat cua Trung<br /> da tang trudng khd nhanh, ttt 13,4% ndm Qudc nhtmg hien nay da rdt xudng hdng Ihtt<br /> 2005 tang len sit 20% vdo ndm 2010. Ding hai sau My. Ngodi ra, neu lheo cich tinh cua<br /> chtt y li ttt ndm 2009 ly trpng xuit khau cua Trung Qudc coi Lien minh Chau Au Id mot<br /> Nhgt Bin sang Trung Qudc da vupt qua My, ddi ldc lhi Nhdt Ban dttng hdng thu 3. Thdm<br /> dung d vi lri thtt nhat. Ve nhip khdu, Trung chi, neu chi linh rieng lhi Irudng xudl khdu<br /> Qudc cung id nudc chidm vj lri hang dau ciia thi Nhdt Bdn cdn xep dudi cd Hdng Kdng.<br /> Nhdt Bin. Ttt ndm 2005 den nay, ly trpng Thtt hai Id ti trpng mau dich, nhtt de cap d<br /> nhap khau ttt Trung Qudc cua Nhit Bin rat tren, trong khi ty Irpng xudl nhdn khdu cua<br /> cao, hdu nhu ludn chidm trdn dudi 20% tdng Trung Qudc trong tdng kim nggch xuat,<br /> kim ngach nhdp khdu cua Nhdl Bdn. Trong nhgp khau cua Nhdt Bdn ndm trong xu<br /> ndm 2009 dtt kim nggch nhdp khau ttt Nhdt hudng ngdy cdng gia tang lhi, ly trpng xudt<br /> Bdn gidm xudng dang ke nhtmg vdn chiem nhap khdu cua Nhal Bdn ddi vdi Trung Qudc<br /> tren 22% tdng kim ngach nhdp khiu cua lai ngiy cdng thdp xudng. Chdng hgn, ndm<br /> Nhdt Bdn. Neu xet mdy ndm gdn day thi con 2000 kim ngach thuong mgi vdi Nhat Ban<br /> sd ndy thudng gap trdn hai lan ty trpng nhgp cua Trung Qudc chiem 17,5% tdng kim<br /> khdu tu My. ngach thuang mgi cua Trung Qudc thi ddn<br /> Ve phia Trung Qudc, ttt khi Trung Qudc ndm 2010 giim xudng cdn khodng 10%. Vi<br /> gia nhdp Td chttc Thttong mai The gidi ti le vay, du xel cd ve lupng kim nggch hay ly<br /> tdng trudng ngogi Ihuong ctia Trung Qudc trong ngoai thuong thi Nhdt Bdn cung chi li<br /> da dat dupc con sd ddng khdm phuc vdi lren bgn hing Idn thtt hai cua Trung Qudc.<br /> 10% mpt ndm. Ti trpng xuit khdu cua Trung 4. Cff cau mat hang xuat nhap khau<br /> Qudc chiem trong xudt khdu cua todn thd Viec Trung Qudc lich cue day mgnh<br /> gidi da tdng ttt 3,9% trong nam 2000 len chinh sdch cdi cdch md cua vd gia nhdp Td<br /> 10,4% vdo ndm 2010 vd con sd nhdp khdu Id chttc Thttong mgi Thd gidi Ididng chi gittp<br /> tu 3,4% len 9,1%. Do do, ndu ndm 2001, Trung Qudc nhanh chdng vtton len dan ddu<br /> Tnmg Qudc mdi dung d vi tri thtt 6 lren the the gidi ve thuong mai md cdn giup cho ca<br /> gidi ve thuang mai thi den nam ndm 2010 da cau thuang mai ciia Trung qudc lhay ddi mdt<br /> trd thinh nudc xudt khdu Idn nhdt thd gidi vd each ca ban: ttt qudc gia xuat khiu nguyen<br /> nhdp khiu dung thu hai sau My". lieu vd hdng ndng sin Id chinh trd thinh<br /> Vdi Nhdt Bdn, thucmg mgi cua Trung qudc gia xuat khdu v i nhgp khiu cic mat<br /> Qudc cd may ddc diem sau: hang cdng nghiep Id chu yeu. Vi du, ndm<br /> 2009 tttc li 9 nam sau khi gia nhip WTO,<br /> "* Sach trang "Ngogi thuong Tnmg Qu6c" phdt hdnh thang trong khi kim ngach xudt khiu cdc mat hing<br /> 12/2011. Dang tren trgng http;//news.xinhuanet.com<br /> <br /> <br /> NGHIEN COU CONG B^C A, i6 3(133) 3-20t2 17<br />  Nghien ciiu khoa hot<br /> <br /> thudc ngdnh sdn xudl thu nhat chi Id 63,111 sdn xudt thtt nhdl Id 288,804 ty USD, chien<br /> ty USD, chiem 5,2% thi trai lai kim ngach 31,0% vd cic mdt hdng nginh cdng nghi^j<br /> xudt khiu cdc mdt hing cdng nghi?p ldn den li 716,119 ly USD chidm 69% ldng kin<br /> 1.138,48 ly USD, chicm ldi 94,8% tdng kim nggch nhgp khiu cua Trung Qudc. Do vgy<br /> ngach xudt khiu cua Trung Qudc. Vc nhgp ca cdu xudl nhgp khau cua Trung Qudc vd:<br /> khdu, Trung Qudc nhap cdc mdt hdng nginh Nhgl Bin cung khdng ndm ngodi xu the ndy.<br /> <br /> Bang 3: Ngoai thuwng ciia Trung Quoc (2000-2010)<br /> (Ban vi tinh: trifu USD)<br /> A:Trung Quae xuai khau<br /> <br /> 2000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010<br /> EU 721,5 1.071.6 1.437,1 1.819,8 2.451,9 2.928,8 2.362,9 3.112,0<br /> My 521.0.1 924,7 1.249.4 1.629,0 2.034,7 2.327,0 2.523.8 2.208.2 2.833,0<br /> Nhat 416,4 594,1 735,1 840,0 916,4 1,020,7 1.1613 979,1 1,210,6<br /> Ban<br /> Hong 415.2(1 762,7 1.008,7 1.244,8 1.553,9 1.844,3 1.907,4 1 662,3 2.183,2<br /> Kong<br /> ASEAN 309,3 429.0 553,7 713,1 941,8 1141.4 1.063,0 1.382,0<br /> Han 112,93 201,0 278,1 351,1 445,3 561,4 730,5 536.8 687,7<br /> Quoc<br /> Dai Loan 50,40 90,1 135.4 165,5 207,4 234,6 258,8 205.1 286,8<br /> Cac nuoc 778,9 1.025,8 1.073,5 2.002,2 2.311,0 3.625.1 2999.2 4 074,0<br /> khac<br /> Tong 1.873,60 4.382,3 5.933,3 7,620,0 9,690,8 12,180,2 14.285.5 12.016,6 15,779J<br /> cong<br /> <br /> B: Trung Quoc nhdp khdu<br /> <br /> 2000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010<br /> EU 530,6 701,2 740,0 903,2 1.109,6 1.327,0 1.287,0 1.685,0<br /> My 223,63 338,6 446,6 487,3 592,1 693,8 813,6 774,4 1.020,4<br /> Nhat 415,12 741,5 943,3 1.004,5 1,157,2 1,139,5 1506,0 1J09,4 1.767,1<br /> Ban<br /> Hong 94,29 111,2 118,0 1.222,7 107,9 128,2 129,2 87,1 123,0<br /> Kong<br /> ASEAN 473,3 629,8 750,0 895,3 1.083,7 1.169,7 1.067,1 1.546,0<br /> Han 232,07 431,3 622,3 768,2 897,8 1.037,6 1.121,4 1.025,5 1.384,0<br /> Quoc<br /> Dai Loan 254.94 493,6 647,6 746,8 871,1 1.010,2 1.033,4 857,2 1.156,9<br /> Cac nudc 1,007,5 1.503,5 574,5 2.491,5 2.107,7 4.320,5 3.657,9 5.265,9<br /> khac<br /> Tong 2.250,97 4.127,6 5.6123 6.601,2 7.916,1 9,558,2 11.330,9 10,055,6 13.948,3<br /> CODg<br /> <br /> <br /> Ngudn: Theo "Nien gidm thong ke " hdng nam cua Trung Quoc<br /> <br /> <br /> 18 NGHliN Cda CONG B^C fl. sd 3(133) 3-2012<br /> Nghien cihi khoa hpc<br /> <br /> Bang 4: Co cSu xuat nhap khau giiia Nhdt Ban v i Trung Quoc<br /> trong 10 nam dau the ky XXI<br /> (Ban vi tinh: 1000 USD; %)<br /> A. Cdc mgt hang xuat khau sang Trung Qudc<br /> <br /> IMat hang Nam 2000 NSm 2005 Nam 2010<br /> Kim ngach Tyle Kim nggch T y l ? Kim ngach Tile<br /> Thuc pham 139.779 0,5 353.558 0,4 518.727 0,4<br /> To spi va san pham ta spi 2.963.863 9,7<br /> San pham hoa hpc<br /> 3.507.572 4.4 *<br /> 3.997.038 13,1 10.472.538 13,0 19.204.579 12,9<br /> San pham phi kim loai 607.904 2,0 820.330 1,0 *<br /> Kim loai va san pham 3.268.428 10,7 8.484.749 10,6 21.652.3i6 14,5<br /> kim loai<br /> May mdc ndi chimg 5.942.539 19,5 17.032.658 21,2 33.450.983 22,4<br /> Dd dien ttt 8.353.840 27,5 20.787.067 25,9 34.964.214 23,5<br /> May moc van tdi 1.179.806 3,9 4.040.739 5,0 15.238.944 10,2<br /> May moc chinh xac 1.229.390 4,0 4.254.775 5,3 0 0<br /> Mat hang khac 2.447.192 9,0 10.608.978 13,2 17.495.914 11,7<br /> Tdng cong 30.427.518 100,0 80.836.967 100,0 149.099.604 100,0<br /> <br /> B. Cdc mat hang nhgp khau tit Trung Qudc<br /> <br /> Mat hang Nam 2000 Nam 2005 Nam 2010<br /> Kim nggch Tyle Kim nggch Tyle Kim ngach Tile<br /> Thuc pham 5.892.638 10,7 7.914.486 7,3 7.981.845 5,2<br /> Nguyen lieu 1.506.194 2,7 1.687.524 1,6 1.779.774 1,2<br /> Nguyen, nhien lieu 2.163.948 3,9 3.295.471 3,0 1.742,366 1,1<br /> San pham hoa hgc 1.639.444 3,0 4.280.525 3,9 8.708.488 5,7<br /> San pham to sgi 16.754.878 30,3 21.241.270 19,5<br /> San pham phi kim 1.106.846 2,0 1.816.148 1,7<br /> * *<br /> loai<br /> * *<br /> Kim loai va san 2.221.913 4,0 6.237.952 6,0 *<br /> pham kim logi 11,5<br /> 17.519.787<br /> Do dien tir + 39.535.800 25,9<br /> * * *<br /> May m6c vgn tai 2.816.852 1,8<br /> May moc co khi<br /> *<br /> 14.445.796 26,1<br /> * •<br /> 44.453.814<br /> •<br /> 40,8 25.661.068 16,8<br /> Cgc mat hang khac 9.561.752 17,3 18.061.203 16,6 47.009.815 30,8<br /> Tons cong 55,303,372 100,0 109.024.393 100,0 152.755.797 100,0<br /> <br /> Ghi chu: * Trong ndm 2010, do cdc mat hdng ndy khong thuoc nhom co ty trong cao nen duac<br /> ca quan thdng ke cua Nhgt ghep lgi thdnh mot nhom hdng xudt vd nhgp khdu doi v&i Trung Quoc.<br /> Vidu trong ndm 2010 cdc sdnphdm thuoc mat hdng kim logi, phi kim logi v.v...duac ghep lgi thdnh<br /> mot nhdm sdn phdm xudt khdu sang Trung Quoc v&i kim nggch xdp xi 17,6 ty USD, chiem 11,5%<br /> kim nggch xudt khdu sang Trung Qudc.<br /> Ngudn: Lap theo s6 lieu cong bo cua JETRO Nhgt Bdn<br /> <br /> <br /> NGHIEN CtJTU D O N G B ^ C d , s 6 3(133] 3-2012 19<br />  Nghien cOu khoa hpi<br /> <br /> Nhu bing lren cho thay, ca cau cdc mdt nguyen, nhien lipu vd cic mdt hdng ndnj<br /> hing xuit nhdp khiu giua hai nudc dd cd su lam sdn khdng cd nhidu gii trj gia ldng. Vi<br /> thay ddi manh me. ni thiy rS didu niy, la vdy, Trung Qudc dd nhgp nhieu linh kien cac<br /> hdy xem 5 mil hdng xuit khiu chinh ctta cip cua Nhgt Bin vd Idp rdp vd xuat khiu<br /> Nhat Bin sang Trung Quoc lrong 3 mdc thdi sang lhj Irudng cic nudc Au-My.<br /> gian la nim 2000- nam Trung qudc chua gia Thic ba, do gia nhgp To chttc Thuong mai<br /> nhdp WTO, ndm 2005 vd ndtn 2010. Trudc Thd gidi nen Trung Qudc phdi cdt giim thue<br /> het li ve xudl khau, lrong sudi 10 ndm ke ttt cdc mjl hing nhdp khiu. Dieu ndy cung thu<br /> ndm 2000, cdc mdi hdng dd dipn ttt, may hut dupc cdc doanh nghiep Nhdt Bdn day<br /> mdc CO khi, sin pham hda hpc, kim logi vi mgnh ddu lu vdo Trung Qudc. Vi vdy.viec<br /> sdn pham kim logi chiem den han 70% long cdc doanh nghifp Nhdl Bdn dua may mdc,<br /> kim ngach nhap khau cua Trung Qudc ddi nguyen li?u vdo Trung Qudc de sdn xuai<br /> vdi Nhdl Bdn. Con sd niy vdn nim lrong cung Id nguyen nhdn khien cho cdc mat hang<br /> khuynh hudng gia tdng trong nhihig ndm sau lren chiem ti trpng Idn lrong xuat khdu ciia<br /> dd. Chang hgn den nam 2005 con sd niy cdn Nhgl Bdn sang Trung Qudc.<br /> len den tren 75%) vd den ndm 2010 lhi nhirng Tidp lheo Ii nhdp khdu cua Nhil Bin tir<br /> mat hang nay thim chi chiem tdi 83,5% tdng Trung Qudc. Cd the thay ro su thinh cdng<br /> kim ngach xuit khiu cua Nhdt Bin sang cua Trung Qudc trong viec chuyen ddi ca<br /> Trung Qudc. Cd the chi ra miy nguyen nhdn cdu thucmg mgi qua 5 mat hdng chiem ly<br /> sau: trpng chinh trong xuit khau sang Nhgt Ban.<br /> Thic nhdt, do ddi sdng ngudi ddn Trung Vi dy, neu trong ndm 2000 kim ngach xuat<br /> Qudc dupc ndng cao ddng ke nen nhu cdu Ididu sdn phdm la spi chiem xdp xi 1 phdn 3<br /> nhdp khdu nhung mdt hing cao cdp lu Nhgl kim ngach xuit khiu sang Nhdt Bdn thi den<br /> gia tdng. ndm 2005 gidm xudng cdn I9,5%i vd dSn<br /> Thit hai, nhu da dd cgp d lren cung vdi ndm 2010 thi mjt hang nay da khdng con<br /> vide gia nhdp Td chttc Thuang mgi Thd gidi, ndm lrong nhdm sdn phdm chinh ntta. Cac<br /> Trung Qudc tich cue thuc hien chinh sach mdt hdng nhu th\rc phdm, nguyen liSu,<br /> chuyen ddi ca cau xuat, nhap khau nham khoang sin ddu xudng rdt thdp. Ngupc Igi<br /> giam bdt viec xudt khau cic mat hing sdn phdm mil hing dien tu ttt chd rdt il d§<br /> <br /> <br /> 20 NGHliN Cdu OONG BiiC A. sd 3(133) MOB<br /> Nghien ciiu khoa hpc<br /> <br /> vuan len chidm vi tri thtt nhit, tiep den li nudc se phdt trien manh hon ntta vd se trd<br /> miy mdc ndi chung vd cac san phim hda thinh mdt trong nhung trung lam thuong<br /> chit. Co cdu nay cd le cdn dupc duy tri trong mai Idn nhdt the gidi.<br /> tuong lai khd ddi.<br /> TAI LIEU THAM KHAO<br /> Nhu vdy, quan he thuang mgi Nhdl Bin-<br /> Trung Qudc sau 10 ndm ke ttt ngiy Trung , 3^ j^^^^i giao Nhat Ban, "Sdch xanh<br /> Qudc gia nhap Td chttc Thuang mgi Thd „goa/g,ao", Sdch phat hanh hang ndm.<br /> gidi da cd nhung lhay ddi to Idn ke ci vd 2. Tai li?u cua To chirc Xuc tiSn Thucmg mai<br /> lupng vi chit. Viec hai nudc trd thanh j,)hat Ban-JETRO. www.jetro.go.jp<br /> nhiing bgn hdng ldn nhil cua nhau khdng chi 3 g^^i, (rj„g ngoaj thuong Trung Quoc.<br /> cd y nghia don thuin ve mat con sd md quan 4 "gao cao nghien cttu chung vd ii xudt<br /> trpng hon Id hd trp, bd sung cho nhau ve mat (,|,jni, j^ch vh Hiep djnh thu do thuang mai Nhat<br /> tdi CO cdu sin xudl. Trong lhdi gian ldi, quan Ban-Trung Qu6c-Han Qudc", www.jetro.go.jp<br /> he ngogi Ihuong Nhdt Bin - Trung Qudc 5 xai lieu cua Northwest Pacific Region<br /> chdc chin cdn tdng Irudng cao. Dgc biet, sau Economic Center; http://www.near21op<br /> mpt lhdi gian khi co quan gdm: Trung tdm 5 xu lieu tren cac trang Web cua Trung<br /> nghien cttu phdt trien cua Qudc vu vien Q^g^..<br /> Trung Qudc (DRC), Vien nghien cttu kinh te<br /> Chdu A ctta Td chttc Xuc tidn Thuang mgi<br /> Nhdt Bdn (JDE-JETRO) vd Vien Nghien cttu<br /> Chinh sdch Kinh Id ddi ngoai cua Hin Qudc<br /> (KIEP) lidn hinh nghien cuu chung ddi vdi<br /> vide ki kdt Hiep dinh Thuang mai Tv do<br /> (FTA) giua ba nudc cho lhdy cic tde dpng<br /> tich cue tdi cac bdn ddi tdc li cd that, (hien<br /> nay ha nudc Nhit Bin-Trung Quoc-Hdn<br /> Qudc da chinh thttc khdi ddng dim phin de<br /> tidn tdi ki kdt hiep dinh niy. Neu hiep djnh<br /> niy dupc ki kdt, quan he thucmg mai giua ba<br /> <br /> NGHIEN Cdu 0 6 N G BflC A, SO 3(133) 3-2012 21<br />