Calibration exercise

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  • For both groups we combined all the answers in which subjects gave the same confidence assessment and calculated how often they were right. Good calibration means that the fraction of correct answers should be about equal to the stated confidence level. For example, on questions where subjects said they were 80 percent confident, they should be right about 80 percent of time. If subjects are well calibrated, then a graph of the percent correct against the confidence levels should lie near a 45◦ line.

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  • To keep our analysis focused, we abstract from other channels emphasized in the literature through which expectations may have an immediate impact on current economic activity such as time-to-build, capital adjustment costs, or consumption smoothing. Also, it should be clear that we do not believe that the economic expansion experienced by the U.S. economy during the second half of the 1990s was entirely driven by expectations of future higher productivity growth.

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  • Naively collecting translations by crowdsourcing the task to non-professional translators yields disfluent, low-quality results if no quality control is exercised. We demonstrate a variety of mechanisms that increase the translation quality to near professional levels. Specifically, we solicit redundant translations and edits to them, and automatically select the best output among them.

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