Probability considerations

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  • This book is about foundational issues in risk and risk analysis; how risk should be expressed; what the meaning of risk is; how to understand and use models; how to understand and address uncertainty; and how parametric probability models like the Poisson model should be understood and used. A unifying and holistic approach to risk and uncertainty is presented, for different applications and disciplines.

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  • Today, the term reliability is part of our everyday language, especially when speaking about the functionality of a product. A very reliable product is a product that fulfils its function at all times and under all operating conditions. The technical definition for reliability differs only slightly by expanding this common definition by probability: reliability is the probability that a product does not fail under given functional und environmental conditions during a defined period of time (VDI guidelines 4001).

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  • In open or laparoscopic radical prostatectomy, residual cancer relates with PSA failure. RTURPCa is probably less invasive than radical prostatectomy and more flexible in the point that the second operation can be indicated and easily done to eliminate residual cancer when PSA shows a successive rise. The second RTUR-PCa was required in 46 patients. But this is considered just a technical issue because the need for the second operation has decreased as the surgeon has become experienced.

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  • Rich Van Pelt: You probably don’t live anywhere near Colum- bine; you may not even know where Columbine is—which is fi ne. It’s in Littleton, Colorado—not exactly the center of the universe, or anything else for that matter—more the southwest- ern edge of the Denver metro area. But on April 20, 1999—and for about a month after—Columbine seemed like the center of the universe, judging by news coverage. On that day two stu- dents came to school armed to the teeth and started shooting people. They killed 12 students, one teacher, and themselves in a bloody rampage....

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  • However, such a strategy is inappropriate for the United States in current circumstances. Inflation expectations appear reasonably well-anchored, and both inflation expectations and actual inflation remain within a range consistent with price stability. In this context, raising the inflation objective would likely entail much greater costs than benefits. Inflation would be higher and probably more volatile under such a policy, undermining confidence and the ability of firms and households to make longer- term plans, while squandering the Fed’s hard-won inflation credibility.

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  • Structural arrangements. 2 structures, including pressurized cabins and pressure vessels, relatively large amounts of damage may be contained by providing tear straps or stiffeners. There is usually a high probability of damage detection for a class 2 structure because of fuel or pressure leakage, that is, "leak-before-break" design is characteristic of class 2 structures. Class 3 structures are usually designed to provide a specified percentage of the original strength, that is, a specified residual strength, during and subsequent to the failure of one element....

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  • The Commission has made a proposed determination that the following amendment requests involve no significant hazards consideration. Under the Commission’s regulations in Section 50.

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  • Although we appreciate the effort made to target the more risky institutions and activities, we still have some doubts about how the thresholds system for ring-fencing trading activities would be applied. It seems to be very difficult to assess which activities would fall under the threshold and which would fall outside, and moreover this will probably lead to similar legal disputes as created by the Volcker Rule.

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  • These explanations apply to terms as used in this policy procedure: Agreements for the purpose of this policy, transactions involving purchase orders, tenders, contracts, to provide goods, services and works, etc. For a short list, see Appendices C. Capital Assets are assets of significant value which have a useful life of several years, also referred to as fixed assets. Capital expenditure: Payment of money to acquire capital assets, such as a building or equipment.

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  • WHAT’S IN THIS CHAPTER? ➤ How to install the Android SDK, create a development environment, and debug your projects. Understanding mobile design considerations and the importance of optimizing for speed and efficiency and designing for small screens and mobile data connections. Using Android Virtual Devices, the emulator, and developer tools. ➤ ➤ All you need to start writing your own Android applications is a copy of the Android SDK and the Java development kit.

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  • Electrical machines are almost entirely used in producing electricity, and there are very few electricity-producing processes where rotating machines are not used. In such processes, at least auxiliary motors are usually needed. In distributed energy systems, new machine types play a considerable role: for instance, the era of permanent magnet machines has now commenced. About half of all electricity produced globally is used in electric motors, and the share of accurately controlled motor drives applications is increasing.

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  • Despite its considerable potential for energy savings, energy efficiency is still far from realizing this potential. This is particularly true in the electrical sector (IEA, 2010). Why? There is no probably just one single answer to this question. A consequential response requires major multiform research and an analytical effort. No doubt that analysis of the interaction between energy efficiency policies and energy efficiency performance of economies accounts for a significant part of the effort....

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  • In this section we introduce an efficient method for the steady-state analysis of Markov chains. Whereas direct and iterative techniques can be used for the exact analysis of Markov chains as previously discussed, the method computations of Courtois [Cour75, Cour77] is mainly applied to approximate u NN the desired state probability vector u. Courtois’s approach is based of on decomposability properties of the models under consideration.

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  • Magnetism often has a slight overtone of being mysterious. This is probably caused by the surprisingly strong forces between magnets which everybody can experience with magnetic toys, magnet boards, or similar objects. A strange effect is the unique ability of magnetic fields to penetrate many substances without any attenuation. Though the physical basis of magnetism is well explored, the outsider usually does not know very much about the details and sometimes tends to overestimate the real possibilities provided by magnetism.

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  • It’s rare that someone should develop an obsession with Wall Street with out sharing its driving passion, the accumulation of money. It would prob ably take years of psychoanalysis to untangle that contradiction, not to mention others too sensitive to name here. No doubt that contradictory obsession has early roots, but its most po tent adult influence was probably my first job out of college, at a small brokerage firm in downtown Manhattan.

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  • CHAPTER 2 STATISTICAL CONSIDERATIONS Charles R. Mischke, Ph.D., RE. Professor Emeritus of Mechanical Engineering Iowa State University Ames, Iowa 2.1 INTRODUCTION / 2.2 2.2 HISTOGRAPHIC EVIDENCE / 2.3 2.3 USEFUL DISTRIBUTIONS / 2.9 2.4 RANDOM-VARIABLE ALGEBRA / 2.13 2.5 STOCHASTIC ENDURANCE LIMIT BY CORRELATION AND BY TEST / 2.16 2.6 INTERFERENCE / 2.19 2.7 NUMBERS / 2.25 REFERENCES / 2.

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  • Algorithms for Product-Form Networks Although product-form solutions can be expressed very easily as formulae, the computation of state probabilities in a closed queueing network is very time consuming if a straightforward computation of the normalization constant using Eq. (7.3.5) is carried out. As seen in Example 7.7, considerable computation is needed to analyze even a single class network with a small number of jobs, primarily because the formula makes a pass through all the states of the underlying CTMC.

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  • Given the considerable variation in deposit insurance arrangements and the relatively large number of banking crises, it is possible to use this panel to test whether the nature of the deposit insurance system has a significant impact on the probability of a banking crisis once other factors are controlled for. We carry out these tests using the multivariate logit econometric model developed in our previous work on the determinants of banking crises (Demirg†e-Kunt and Detragiache, 1998).

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  • Chapter 015. Headache (Part 2) Clinical Evaluation of Acute, New-Onset Headache The patient who presents with a new, severe headache has a differential diagnosis that is quite different from the patient with recurrent headaches over many years. In new-onset and severe headache, the probability of finding a potentially serious cause is considerably greater than in recurrent headache. Patients with recent onset of pain require prompt evaluation and often treatment.

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  • However, despite the convincing evidence in our pilot study of 228 patients, the implementation of CPC detection might result in unanticipated losses or dis-econcomies in the short run. There are two prime reasons, firstly that the new cost-effective technology will probably co-exist with the inefficient alternative for a considerable time period. In our study the idea is a complementary process, leading to decreased biopsies, thus there is not an alternative test; only that CPC detection is not performed.

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