VIETNAM ACADEMY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES GRADUATE ACADEMY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES ĐỖ LÝ HOÀI TÂN PROMOTING SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE SOUTHEAST REGION TO 2030
VẬN TÀI THỦY-BỘ
NỘI ĐỊA Ở ĐỒNG BẰNG SÔNG CỬU LONG
Economic Development 9.31.01.05
Major: Code:
SUMMARY OF DOTORAL THESIS OF ECONOMIC HÀ NỘI – 2020
The thesis was completed at: GRADUATE ACADEMY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES VIETNAM ACADEMY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES
Scientific Advisor:
1. Assoc. Prof.Dr. Lê Thanh Sang
2. Prof.Dr. Nguyễn Trọng Hoài
Reviewer 1:
Reviewer 2:
The thesis will be defended at the Academy-level Judging Council
at: the Graduate Academy of Social Sciences, 477 Nguyen Trai, Thanh
Xuan, Hanoi
On …… hour, date ……… month …… year ……
The thesis can be found at:
- Library of the Graduate Academy of Social Sciences
- Vietnam National Library
OVERVIEW 1. Rationale of the study
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Sustainable development and sustainable growth are based on a harmonious combination of all three pillars of economy, society, environment for the needs of the next generation. It becomes the most effective strategy for long-term economic growth and development after receiving the support of the participants of the UNCED Conference held in Rio de Janeiro in 1992 and the WSSD Conference in Johannesburg in 2002. In Vietnam, Documents from the 7th National Congress to the 12th National Party Congress affirmed that the direction of sustainable development should be used as a basis for accelerating industrialisation and modernisation let Vietnam basically become a modern industrialised country. In particular, the implementation of sustainable development and economic growth in the region, especially in important economic regions such as the Southeast region (DNB), is also proposed as an important task for implementing the direction of sustainable development nationwide.
The South East region has many advantages in terms of geography, favorable climate, mineral resources, and abundant human resources. In addition to the achievements such as the GDP growth rate of the region, especially in Ho Chi Minh City (9.6%), Binh Duong (11.3%) or Dong Nai (12%), which are higher than the general growth rate of the country (5.6%/year), being the region attracting the most FDI in the country, having the highest urbanisation rate in the country (reaching 64.15%) ... , but the region still faces many challenges in the process of sustainable development and growth in the economy: while Ho Chi Minh City, Dong Nai, Binh Duong and Ba Ria-Vung Tau show the rapid development of all aspects. the growth rates of Binh Phuoc and Tay Ninh clearly have not met the expectations and real potential of these two provinces during the past time; economic growth in the region is mainly based on broad growth factors such as untrained labor resources, the increase of capital investment, resource exploitation; The population is concentrated mainly in Binh Duong and Ho Chi Minh City; The ecological environment in localities has been degraded and seriously polluted.
Up to now, it is undeniable that there are many regional research works of provinces, studies of the development of key economic regions of the Ministry, the State as well as provincial and local plans. Despite the values of their referencing and local development planning, the results of these works are still mainly in the form of master plans, which give 1
directions for sector development and resource determination. regional development (Nguyen Xuan Thu, 2006: 6). In other words, there are not many works focused on analysing and assessing the status of equipment security in the regions such as the Southeast region, pointing out achievements and limitations in the process of economic growth of the region, finding solutions and the new direction for the strategy to promote the economy growth in the region to effectively deal with uncertainties and challenges in the future. In order to meet the above requirements, the PhD candiate decided to choose the topic "Promoting the sustainable economic growth in the Southeast region to 2030" to be the doctoral thesis to contribute to the theoretical and practical basis of evaluating the sustainable regional economic growth, thereby helping the Southeast region to come up with appropriate solutions to promote sustainable growth in the economy. 2. Research objectives and missions 2.1. Research objectives
The thesis aims to further clarify the basic theoretical issues about economic growth and the direction of regional economic growth in a sustainable manner. On that basis, assess the current situation and propose some solutions to promote sustainable economic growth in the Southeast region with a vision to the year of 2030. 2.2. Research missions
Clarify the theoretical basis for sustainable economic growth in the region and develop the criteria, indexes, measurement and indicators of evaluating the sustainable economic growth in the region;
Assess the status of the economic growth model in the Southeast region based on the criteria and sustainable economic growth index to identify the limitations, weaknesses, and causes;
Propose the economic sustainable growth targets for the Southeast region region with a vision to the year of 2030 and solutions to implement and promote in order to achieve the proposed targets. 3. Subject and scope of the study 3.1. Subject of the study The sustainable economic growth of the Southeast region of Vietnam. 3.2. Scope of the study
Scope of space: The research area of the thesis is the territory of SE with 5 provinces and 1 city including Ho Chi Minh City, Ba Ria-Vung Tau, Binh Duong, Dong Nai, Binh Phuoc and Tay. Ninh.
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Scope of time: The thesis studies the status of sustainable economic
growth of the Southeast region from 2008 to 2017. 4. Methodology and research methods 4.1. Methodology
The study was conducted based on the common views of economic development and the direction of sustainable economic development in relation to other pillars of sustainable development, namely society and environment. The organization and analysis process of data are based on the following main theoretical grounds: Theories on sustainable development, susbtainable growth and susbtainable economic growth. Inheriting achievements and research results from research works
related to the content of the thesis. 4.2. Research methods
Statistical analysis method is used to quantify and analyse the collected data related to the socio-economic-environmental situation, thereby clarifying the current situation of sustanable economic growth in the region.
Logical assessment method is used to study the issue of promoting economic growth in relation to sustainable development, assessing the status of sustainable economic development process in the Southeast region through analysing the unique advantages of the entire Southeast region and make appropriate assessments.
Comparative method is used to compare the related data of the Southeast region at different time, of the South East region with the whole country at the same time. In addition, a number of other methods are also used in the research
process such as interpretation, inductive methods... 5. Contributions of the thesis
Concluding lessons learned in the implementation of promoting sustainable economic growth of regional economies in some countries around the world, which can be applied to the Southeast region. Systematising and supplementing the theory of substainable economic growth of a region. Developing a criteria to evaluate the sustainable economic growth in a region in general and in the Southeast region in particular. Systematising the data reflecting the current situation of sustainable economic growth in the Southeast region in the period of 2008-2017.
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Presenting and applying a comprehensive evaluation method to determine the level of sustainability in the economic growth in the Southeast region in the period of 2008-2017. Proposing key views and solutions to promote sustainable economic
growth in the Southeast region region in the vision to 2030. 6. Theoretical and practical meanings of the thesis 6.1 Theoretical meaning The thesis can be used as a reference to guide new research projects
for other regions or for a wider scale. 6.2 Practical meaning The thesis proposes a set of criteria to evaluate the sustainable economic growth for regions. The thesis can be used to design the regional economic growth policy
for Southeast region to suit the new international and national context. 7. Structure of the thesis In addition to the introduction, conclusion, list of references and appendices, the thesis includes the following chapters: Chapter 1: Focusing on the overview of domestic and foreign researches related to the content of the thesis.
Chapter 2: Presenting a number of theoretical issues related to sustainable regional economic growth including concepts, theoretical basis, patterns, and influencing factors; assess international experiences and lessons learned for the process of sustainable regional economic growth in Vietnam.
Chapter 3: Analysing the current situation of sustainable economic growth in the Southeast region, assessing the achievements and limitations of the process of sustainable economic growth in the Southeast region in the period of 2008-2017.
Chapter 4: Analysing new domestic and international contexts, making forecasts on the growth of the South East region, and proposing a number of views and solutions to promote the sustainable economic growth in the Southeast region to 2030.
CHAPTER 1 OVERVIEW OF PUBLICED RESEARCH WORKS RELATED TO SUSTAINABLE REGIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH
1.1. International research works 1.1.1. Research on economic growth models
Adam Smith's "Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations" (1776) argued that society is a combination of individuals - 4
economic people, alliances. of exchanging relationships. In addition, he argued that all personal communication is governed by their own selfishness and interests. However, the impact of the "Invisible Hand" will force economic people to protect the common good of society if they want to protect their own interests, regardless of whether this is not intended. Also in this work, Adam Smith also presented the theory of "Capital accumulation". He argued that the source of labor wealth and social assets depends on two factors: Number of employees in material production activities; the development of labor division activities to increase production productivity.
The theory of "Capital accumulation" by Adam Smith was later inherited and developed by the economist David Ricardo (1817) with the classic work "On the Principles of Political Economy and Taxation".
The Harrod-Domar model is a combination of two independent studies by two economists Roy Harrod (1939) and Evsey Domar (1946). Harrod-Domar stated that investment is the basis for creating future production capital and production capital plays an important role in increasing the size of the economy, in other words, by promoting the rate of savings or the amount of capital invested, growth will be boosted.
The strong development of the modern scientific and technological revolution led to the introduction of the Solow growth model (1956) with the theory of "Technocracy" that made many new contributions in the theory of economic growth. In particular, Solow emphasizes the role of technical progress to economic growth when it is thought that the development of production methods is the basis to maintain the expansion of the size of the economy, thereby leading to sustainability of economic growth.
By inheriting and applying the capitalist concept of classical economics, Schultz divided capital into two forms: conventional capital and human capital. He said that the development of health, education and social security through investment will increase the quality, expertise and technology of workers. Conventional capital has thus become human capital, thereby increasing production output and promoting long-term economic growth. Lucas (1988) built a growth model of the accumulation of specialized human capital to supplement and develop the theory of "Human capital". Accordingly, he divided capital into 2 types: "tangible capital" (physical capital) and "intangible capital" (human capital).
The strong rise of globalisation requires the introduction of a new stream of theory, the theory of "new growth", with two representatives 5
Romer (1986, 1990) and Scott (1989) to explain the economic growth in the global economy. Romer's views were corroborated by Scott (1989) 's study of capital-based growth models. In his paper, in addition to emphasising the role of investment in economic growth (since investment was the source of technical progress and human capital accumulation), Scott supported the old-school economics view as he viewed capital and labor were the determinants of "output growth".
Facing the economic downturns due to the negative impacts from environmental pollution and exhaustion of natural resources, the urgent requirement for the world economy is to implement restructuring. structure and change a new growth model to ensure sustainable growth and development. Most green economists agree to add the element of ecological capital to the economic growth model and think that is the decisive driving force for economic growth in the long term. On the one hand, they still acknowledge the essential role of capital, investment, labor and technical advances in economic growth; on the other hand, they complement and emphasise the role of natural resources for economic growth and the urgency of protecting natural resources to carry out growth, as well as emphasise and expand the role of natural resources. government in long-term growth. 1.1.2. Research on regional growth 1.1.2.1. The theory of balanced growth in economics
The economists of this school think that in the process of development and growth, all sectors are closely related to each other, according to the relationship of one industry's input to the other. Therefore, they support the growth direction of supply and demand in production, especially in the industrial sector, and see it as the optimal way to achieve a balanced development of the economy in a region. , territory.
Some influential representatives of this school include: (1) Rosenstein-Rodan's big push theory (1943), (2) The vicious cycle of Nurkse's poverty (1961) 1.1.2.2. Theories about unbalanced growth in economics
This school argues that economic growth operates on the basis of the rule of unbalanced, differential and specific growth, hence maintaining a balance in the interdisciplinary structure is not really necessary. Implications for regional connectivity, including intra-regional and inter- regional links, have also begun to be raised and discussed.
Some influential representatives of this school include: (1) the growth pole theory of Perroux (1950) and Hirschmann (1969) growth pole theory, 6
(2) Friedman's central-peripheral theory (1966), (3) ) The reverse U-theory of Kuznet (1955) and Williamson (1965). 1.1.3. Research on sustainable economic growth
The Brundtland Report emphasizes that the current growth trend is not sustainable. For that reason, in order to ensure sustainable development, reducing poverty through economic growth is not only a duty of less developed countries but also a need to be implemented by developed countries in the world through investing their capital in less developed countries to promote the process of globalisation and promote free trade between countries as well as pave the way for global sustainable development (Hoyer and Naess, 2001). Economic growth, often determined by GDP and GDP per capita, is the most effective solution to solve the problem of inequality in living conditions between countries. In other words, economic growth, in the form of income growth, is a mandatory condition for the sustainable development process (Kemp and Martens, 2007; Martens and Raza, 2010).
Economic growth to achieve sustainability today needs to emphasise the factors of industrialisation and urbanisation (Ogbimi, 2007). Economic restructuring is also a content often mentioned in the research related to economic growth in general and sustainable economic growth in particular. Temin (1999) further examined the relationship between economic restructuring and economic growth by looking at changes in the flow of agricultural labor in 15 European countries in the period of 1955- 1975. The author then concluded that the economic growth rate tends to increase by 0.8% if the proportion of agricultural labor in the total workforce decreases by 20%. However, many studies also suggest that restructuring towards modernisation does not mean focusing only on high- tech modern industries and neglecting the role of agriculture and traditional industry. Research conducted by Spence et al (2010) through analysing the current state of economic development in China and Thailand had concluded that growth in agriculture is one of the important conditions for free labor to work and since the majority of the poor are mainly located in rural areas, increasing agricultural productivity has a positive impact on poverty reduction.
It can be said that the process of economic restructuring has a significant contribution to economic growth and the role of the state manifests itself in making appropriate policies to ensure a smooth transition, thereby helping to keep the nation's economic growth over time (Peneder, 2001). In addition, inheriting the conception of neoclassical and 7
new economic growth theories, many studies have investigated the role of human capital in ensuring the sustainable growth in the modern economy. Altinok (2007) argued that a causal relationship exists between the quality of education and the quality of human capital. Accordingly, the improvement and perfection in education is a decisive factor for the improvement of the quality of human capital, which in turn leads to the economic equipment of each country.
Besides, many issues are raised when considering the linkage between the equipment and economy on protection of the natural environment. In his paper, Solow (1991) viewed that economic growth as the only condition to eradicate poverty can have negative effects on future generations. Therefore, Solow (1993) argued that the economies of each country need to find a way to pay environmental costs for the depleting resources as an indispensable part to ensure the necessary requirements for an intergenerational sustainable development process to go smoothly. However, many economists, including Daly (1993, 1996), found that all matters in the biosphere of this world are limited in number. For that reason, the possibility of an infinite replacement of artificial capital for natural capital, as Solow (1993) noted, is not really feasible.
The limited nature of natural capital, the limited capacity of artificial capital, and the increase of environmental pollution, lead to an urgent need for government intervention in order to develop strategies and policies to manage and protect these valuable energy sources. Beckerman (1992) strongly voiced his opinion to reduce the attention of global warming and the environmental issues facing countries around the world. Kula (1998) pointed out that many economic growth and development strategies in many countries today, besides opening up new industries, contribute to the renovation of urban infrastructure but also leading to unpredictable future due to environmental issues often overlooked. The study then pointed out the inadequacies of current economic development policies as one of several causes of severe environmental pollution and the problem of wasting materials in many countries.
Thus, it can be seen that many growth policies sometimes lead to undesirable outcomes. Therefore, the policy of Sustainable Development and Sustainable Economic Development needs to be assessed and considered to be adaptable to the practical requirements at the time and requires each country and region to take into account the management and use these valuable natural resources as reasonably and efficiently as possible to ensure the process of sustainable economic growth.
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1.2. Domestic research works
In order to solve the problems posed by the fact that our country is still at a low development and many regions have high poverty rates, a number of scientific studies examining and assessing the reality of Vietnam's economy in the direction of sustainable development and sustainable economic growth are gradually increasing. The process of sustainable development in general and the sustainable economic growth in particular in Vietnam are still limited. Research conducted by Hoang Thi Chinh (2012) analysed the scale of sustainable economic growth of Vietnam in the period of 2001-2010 also pointed out the weaknesses of the economic growth models at that time. The quality of human resources or the quality of human capital have a strong impact on economic growth.
Nguyen Xuan Dung (2008) stated that the development of Vietnam's industry, although fast in some key areas, has not shown the sustainability in improving the potential of human resources.
The process of urbanisation also plays an important role and has a significant impact on the sustainable economic growth of a country or a region. However, many studies also show paradoxes and contradictions in the process of implementing urbanisation in order to promote the sustainable economic growth in our country this day. Nguyen Quang Vinh (2013) in his study showed that the level of urbanisation in Vietnam in general and the Mekong Delta in particular is still low and mainly concentrated in a few big cities, thus causing population movement from rural areas to urban areas and causing waste pollution in rural areas, thereby negatively affecting the process of socio-economic development in the rural areas of the regions.
In the concept of sustainable development, one of the important issues is to find the harmony between economic growth and environmental protection (Luu Duc Hai & Nguyen Ngoc Sinh, 2001). The Law on Environmental Protection was amended and supplemented in 2005, which clearly shows Vietnam's cognitive progress on the environmental impact on the national economy. However, the lack of experience and effective management capacity from the authorities and the effort of promoting the goal of turning Vietnam into a modern industrialised country make it is very difficult to strictly implement the Law (Clausen et al., 2011, Lafferty and Hovden, 2003). Specifically, by analysing the data collected from the General Statistics Office and many related sources, Ngo Thi Thanh Truc et al. (2008) pointed out the instability and unsustainability in management and use of chemicals in agriculture in the Mekong Delta. In addition, the 9
rapid increase of industrial zones in many regions of the country and the limitation of investment resources in waste collection and treatment as well as low environmental awareness in these industrial zones have led to environmental pollution (Phuong Nhung, 2010; Le Thanh Sang, 2013).
The authors in Vietnam have defined the criteria to assess the process of industrialisation and modernisation as part of determining the level of sustainable development of the country or each region. Nguyen Ke Tuan et al. (2015) in the book "Developing the country into a modern socialist- oriented country" gathered quite a number of research works of the domestic authors that propose the criteria for assessing industrialisation and modernisation of Vietnam. Other studies, such as Ngo Dang Thanh et al. (2009), proposed three basic groups of criteria, one for evaluating the economic development and the second for evaluating the social development, and the third is a group of criteria to assess the environmental development, to reflect the level of the process of industrialisation in our country. Do Quoc Sam (2009) based on data from about 20 countries that completed the industrialisation process in the 1960- 1970s and combined with other related criteria to build a basic criteria, thereby assessing the process of industrialisation in Vietnam. Inheriting the research results of the above authors, Nguyen Hong Son et al. (2014) also proposed a set of criteria including 4 criteria: criteria on income/person, criteria on restructuring, the criteria on sustainable development and some reference criteria, in order to specifically assess the level of industrialisation and modernisation of the country.
It can be seen that, for international research, the above studies bring a high reference value when they have generalised the factors affecting the process of sustainable economic growth, imposing an requirement that sustainable economic growth must go hand in hand with the policise of environmental and social sustainability through a rational social management system, and approach these issues through interdisciplinary and interdisciplinary method. However, the relevant research works do not really provide clear policies and orientations for each growth period, and do not show the feasibility of methods of sustainable economic growth in each region. Most of the above studies are done with data from European and American countries with the economies quite different from Vietnam which is also a defect that is hard to ignore.
An overview of domestic studies shows that these researches are often concentrated in the whole country and their approaches are at many different senses. In other words, although there are many topics on 10
sustainable economic development in recent years, not many topics focus on researching and giving specific policies related to sustainable economic development in a specific region. In addition, similar to international studies, most of the domestic researches usually focus on assessing the impact of a number of factors affecting the economic growth process without paying much attention to assess the combined effects of these factors on the country's economic growth in general and in each region’s in particular. In addition, specific methods to improve and promote the sustainable economic growth and the contents of management and control of policies to improve the sustainable economic growth at many levels have not been clearly defined. The development of criteria and indicators systems to assess the current status of sustainable economic growth at the regional level is still ignored. It should be emphasised that economic activities to promote development and growth are a continuous process not only within each country but also within each region. This shows the need for an in-depth study to comprehensively assess the process of sustainable economic growth to become an important source of documents for the suitable strategy of economic growth and development.
Chapter 1 has pointed out some limitations as well as clarifying some gaps in the research related to the content of the thesis. For that reason, the thesis focus on: (i) systematising the theoretical and practical basis in assessing and reviewing the situation of regional sustainable economic growth (ii) inheriting and applying the basis of above thesis to build a system of criteria for the purpose of analysing and evaluating the regional sustainable economic growth such as Southeast region; (iii) identifying the peculiarities in the economic growth factors of the Southeast region to propose solutions suitable to its regional characteristics.
CHAPTER 2 THEORETICAL ISSUES AND INTERNATIONAL EXPERIENCE ON REGIONAL SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC GROWTH 2.1. Some concepts about regional sustainable economic growth 2.1.1. Region and economic region
Although there are many different opinions around finding a common concept of region and economic region, but in general, many concepts related to regions and economic regions acknowledge that each country is a collection of many different regions and many different economic regions will constitute the economy of that country. More broadly, while region is defined as a form of physical existence limited to a defined space, the economic region is considered a movement and development space for 11
many industries, sector, is "a relatively complete economic complex with its specialisation closely associated with integrated development" (Thoi Cong Hao et al., 2002; Nguyen Tien Dung, 2009). 2.1.2. Economic growth and economic development a. Economic growth
According to Nafziger (1984), economic growth is defined as an increase or decrease in output or income per capita of a nation's economy over a short period of time (usually a year) or from previous period to this period of time. This increase is reflected in the size and growth rate of income. In particular, the growth scale indicates the degree of increase of the economy, while the growth rate is used to relatively compare and reflect the rapid or slow increase between two periods or more. b. Economic development
According to Nafziger (1984), economic development is economic growth accompanied by changes in output distribution and economic structure. Thus, economic development reflects all changes in economic, social, political, natural environment. In other words, economic development includes the growth process, the process of economic restructuring (towards reducing the proportion of agriculture and increasing the proportion of industry and services in the economy) and changing better in the context of society (increasing life expectancy, reducing inequality in society...). 2.1.3. Sustainable Development
In 1987, in the Brundtland report titled "Our Common Future", the World Commission of Environment and Development (WCED) proposed for the first time an official definition of sustainable development as “a development that satisfies the demand of this generation but not compromises the ability to satisfy the needs of future generations...” (WCED, 1987: 43).
economic development, social development sides:
In Vietnam, the Vietnamese Agenda 21 signed by the Prime Minister has clearly defined the sustainable development strategy is to “achieve material adequacy, spiritual and cultural wealth, the equality of citizens and the consensus of society, the harmony between human and nature; development must combine closely, reasonably and harmoniously the and three environmental protection” (Prime Minister, 2004: 21). The 11th and 12th Party Congress established the socio-economic strategy for the 10-year period from 2011 to 2020 with many important contents associated with sustainable development, including “sustainable development is the basis 12
in
for rapid development to create resources for sustainable development. Rapid development and sustainable development must always be closely the socio-economic development plans and policies” linked (Communist Party of Vietnam, 2011: 9). 2.1.4. Sustainable economic growth
According to Tran Binh Trong (2003: 309), sustainable economic growth is “economic growth reaches a relatively high and stable level in a relatively long time (usually a generation of 20-30 years)”. In addition, based on the concept of sustainable development and the concept of economic growth, it can be generalised that economic growth in the direction of sustainability or sustainable economic growth is to maintain the stability of economic growth in the long run in order to meet the needs of current generation while maintaining natural resources and the environment for future generations. 2.2. Models of regional sustainable economic growth and system of evaluation criteria 2.2.1. Models of sustainable economic growth 2.2.1.1. From economic perspective
According to Daly (1989), there are currently two most popular models, the weak econmoc growth model and the strong economic growth model. 2.2.1.2. From environmental perspective According to this approach, there are 4 models of economic growth,
including: a. Traditional economic growth model b. Model of economic growth through remediation of pollution and environmental restoration c. Model of economic growth through control of environmental pollution d. Model of green economic growth 2.2.2. System of evaluation criteria and methods for assessing regional sustainable economic growth
The thesis has been based on the system of basic criteria related to the system of monitoring and evaluating indicators for sustainable development of Vietnam in the period of 2011-2020, the criteria system of stone for regional sustainable development of Vietnam in the period of 2011-2020, together with inheriting the criteria for evaluating a new growth model as announced by APEC leaders (2013) to structure the system of criteria for regional sustainable economic growth. This is also the basis for assessing the current situation of sustainable economic growth 13
in the Southeast region in the period of 2008-2017, including: 5 components with 15 components divided into 48 main indicators.
In addition, based on the criteria system to assess the sustainability of economic growth of the region mentioned above, due to the fact that it is difficult to collect all data of indicators. The thesis also propose a criteria system of 14 indicators which have the most complete data source from 2008 to 2017 to determine the sustainable level of economic growth of the Southeast region in the period of 2008-2017. 2.3. Factors affecting regional sustainable economic growth 2.3.1. Natural and socio-economic factors in the region
Including: (1) Natural conditions such as geographical location, topography, climate, (2) Land resources, natural resources, (3) Human resources, (4) Capital resources, (5) Science and technology. 2.3.2. Domestic institutional factors
Institutional factors including economic environment, political environment, legal environment, and enacted and implemented policies directly and indirectly affect the formation of complete and modern economic structure. They create favorable conditions to promote the strength of industries and fields of the economy as well as support the goals of sustainable development at the national and regional levels. 2.3.3. International factors and conditions 2.4. Experience on regional sustainable economic growth of some countries and lessons for Vietnam in sustainable economic growth in the Southeast region 2.4.1. Experience of regional sustainable economic of some countries in the world 2.4.1.1. Experience of regional sustainable economic of countries in Asia a. Experience from central Thailand b. Experience from Western China 2.4.1.2. Experience of regional sustainable economic of countries in Europe Experience from Schleswig-Holstein state, Federal Republic of Germany 2.4.2. Some lessons from foreign experiences for regional sustainable economic growth in the Southeast region
Firstly, it is necessary to focus on developing and persisting in building highly productive industries but still showing the characteristics of the region, thereby forming key economic industries and growth poles
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to creating spillover effects to promote other industries to develop together.
Secondly, it is necessary to make full use of the natural geographic strengths to support the process of economic growth.
Third, economic development and growth strategies need to have a solid roadmap, goals and specific targets, in which the integration of development strategies and plans for each sector and industry as well as the participation of localities in the region are extremely necessary.
Fourthly, it is necessary to have the support and cooperation between the state, local governments and local businesses to successfully implement the economic growth strategy.
Fifth, the experience of Schleswig-Holstein (Germany) shows the urgency of mobilising and building a separate budget and financial mechanism, a development fund for the Southeast region.
Sixthly, the implementation of regional sustainable economic growth must go hand in hand with environmental protection, combining economic growth with environmental protection in order to build a clean, modern and beautiful living environment for the people of the country in general and of each region in particular.
CHAPTER 3 CURRENT SITUATION OF SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE SOUTHEAST REGION 3.1. An overview of the factors affecting the sustainable economic growth in the Southeast region 3.1.1. Economic factors in the region 3.1.1.1. Natural condition a. Geographical location
Southeast region is one of two regions located in the South of Vietnam next to Southwest region. The Southeast region includes 5 provinces: Dong Nai (DN), Binh Duong (BD), Ba Ria - Vung Tau (BR- VT), Tay Ninh (TN), Binh Phuoc (BP) and Ho Chi Minh City. The Southeast region possesses a favorable geographical position, abundant resources and potentials in many aspects, and has great advantages to expand the economic exchange and cooperation with other regions in the country and in the world. b. Land and climate conditions
The Southeast region has relatively flat terrain with diverse soil structure. In particular, faded gray soil occupies the largest area of Southeast region, followed by brown feralite red soil on basalt. In addition, 15
the Southeast region also possesses relatively harmonious climate conditions and is less affected by natural disasters. However, the region is still affected by drought due to the dry season lasting from 5 to 6 months, making it difficult for producting and living at that time of year. c. Natural resources
The Southeast region possesses many kinds of mineral resources,
Investment capital for socio-economic growth and abundant water resources and tourism resources. 3.1.1.2. development
The Southeast region is able to attract a lot of domestic and international investment capital. This creates a great force for the process of production development thereby promoting general growth and economic growth in the region in general and in each region in particular. 3.2.1.3. Human resources - labor
The Southeast region has a high population growth rate. In addition, the trend of labor restructuring from agricultural group to non-agricultural groups is taking place stably. However, unskilled labor is still the main source of the region. 3.1.2. Impact of domestic institutions
throughout the years. This shows
The Southeast region has always been strongly supported by the Government through many guidelines and policies. In general, the national and regional policy institutions have been reviewed and re-evaluated as well as have many innovative adjustments to be more detailed, clear and practical the Government's determination to create the best possible conditions for the Southeast region to implement innovation, build and deploy strong and specific strategic goals to create the sustainability and growth quality of the region. However, the implementation of issued policies is still an issue that needs to be considered. The fierce competition among localities to attract investment leads to the trend of omitting or mitigating discipline and sanctions for violations. The synchronous coordination among localities, especially in bringing together to solve existing issues that may affect the sustainable development of the Southeast region, has not been implemented smoothly. 3.1.3. Impact from international conditions
The Southeast region attracts a lot of foreign investment capital and receives new technology as well as is advantageous in exporting commodity products. However, the region also faces strong competition from other countries’ goods after joining trade agreements. In addition, 16
although the region attracts a lot of FDI capital, it is still based on the "static competitve advantage", mainly with the dynamics of light industries and food industries, accounting for a large proportion.
The influence of trade relations with other countries around the world, including: China; America, Europe, Korea, Japan; ASEAN countries, also have a significant impact on the growth and development of the Southeast region. 3.2. Analysis of the current situation of sustainable economic growth in the Southeast region 3.2.1. Rapid growth group associated with regional economic restructuring
It can be said that the growth process of the Southeast region has had many complicated changes with quite large fluctuations between years. This proves that the economic growth of the Southeast region is experiencing a "hiccup" growth phenomenon with many years of high and low growth and it partly shows the instability in economic growth of the Southeast region in the period of 2008-2017. 3.2.2. Group of effective regional economic growth
Increasing investment in the region has led to the introduction of many new projects being implemented in the Southeast region. In addition, the rapid increase of social labor productivity of the region also partly reflects the remarkable development in labor qualifications, the ability to apply science and technology, and modern machinery compared to the country in general and other regions in particular. However, similar to the GRDP growth rate of the region was negatively affected by complicated developments in the domestic and foreign economic situation as well as world oil prices, the growth rate of labor productivity is not really stable during this period. This shows the shortcoming in current production processes of the region and it requires a specific solution to solve these issues. 3.2.3. Group of environmental sustainability
The forest area of the region is generally maintained at a stable level due to the effort of protecting and preserving the sustainability of forest ecological environment. However, despite the relatively high rate of construction of wastewater treatment systems in the region, violations of environmental regulations in many industrial parks and FDI projects in the region have occurred frequently. This makes many canals in Ho Chi Minh City such as Ba Bo, Thay Cai...became dead canals with a strong odor due to the huge flow of waste from industrial production and local lifehood. 17
3.2.4. Group of creativity
The Southeast region is the region with the best TFP growth rate in the whole country, with the overall TFP growth rate in the period 2008- 2014 reaching nearly 6% per year. This is also the area that is not heavily affected by financial crisis 2018 as its TFP only decreased by about 2% during this period and has continued to recover strongly. Even so, the proportion of TFP's contribution to GRDP growth rate across the region is still low. This shows that the economic growth of the Southeast region in this period is mostly due to the contribution of capital, especially foreign investment (FDI) and labor resource. This type of growth is not sustainable and short-term.
The rate of trained and graduated university workers in the region is still very low and it is not really commensurate with its leading role in the national economy. This partly reflects the shortage of skilled labor force in the region. In addition, there is still a division of labor skills between localities in the region and qualified human resources tend to concentrate mainly in some areas with higher development such as Ho Chi Minh City and BR-VT. This requires an appropriate solution to ensure the balanced development among localities in the region.
3.2.5. Group of balance Export turnover of the Southeast region is tending to outperform imported imports. Overall, this is a positive signal for the regional economy to ensure foreign exchange reserves and help stabilize the macro economy. However, it must be recognised that the export of the region still depends on the import of raw materials. In particular, support industries of the region in particular and Vietnam in general have not developed strongly.
The deficit and instability in the national trade balance are still quite large. Therefore, the deficit in the international payment balance will still be a big challenge for the economy as it has to cope with external shocks and low and uncertain foreign exchange reserves of the country.
The Engel coefficient of the region is quite low, showing that the proportion of costs for food and beverages in household consumption in the area is quite low, thereby reflecting the high standard of living and quality of life of the population here. Although the poverty rate is low, the inequality of income distribution (GINI) is still quite high, reaching an average of 0.4. This reflects the income gap between the social strata within the region. 3.2.6. Group of safety
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The statistics show that the surplus of state budget revenue occurred continuously in the Southeast region during the period of 2008-2017. In general, this is a manifestation of a healthy and stable situation in the state budget and creates a basis for increasing financial reserves for the region. However, the current situation of the integrated and equalized structure of revenue and expenditure is making the region unable to create and use the revenue with its own strength.
In terms of security and social security, the statistics show that the number of deaths due to traffic accidents in the region has decreased. In addition, the proportion of malnourished under-5 children in the whole region (among 100 children) has decreased. Even so, this rate is still quite high. In addition, although the number of hospital beds per ten thousand people in the region has improved a little bit over time, the number of doctors per ten thousand people in the whole region has decreased.
−1
−1
−1
−1
−1
The issue of safety of environment and hygiene in the region is currently being paid attention by local authorities with appropriate solutions. This is reflected in the indicators of environmental safety such as the proportion of households with hygienic water sources, the proportion of households using hygienic toilets and the proportion of urban population provided with clean water and the rate of solid waste treatment to meet environmental standards during 3 years from 2015 to 2017 are all improved and are close to 100%. 3.2.7. The level of sustainable economic growth in the Southeast region We determine the sustainability of the South East region in the
= 2.1998 -> Medium sustainability = 2.2317 -> Medium sustainability = 2.2561 -> Medium sustainability = 2.2770 -> Medium sustainability = 2.2816 -> Medium sustainability = 2.2459 -> Medium sustainability
following stages: −1 S2008-2012 = V*𝐵2008−2012 S2009-2013 = V*𝐵2009−2013 S2010-2014 = V*𝐵2010−2014 S2011-2015 = V*𝐵2011−2015 S2012-2016 = V*𝐵2012−2016 S2013-2017 = V*𝐵2013−2017 3.3. General assessment of the current situation of sustainable economic growth in the Southeast region 3.3.1. Achievements
Firstly, economic growth indicators such as GRDP per capita, labor productivity, GRDP structure of non-agricultural areas of the region always occupy an overwhelming proportion in GRDP structure of the whole region. Secondly, the total state budget revenue in the region
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increased; Thirdly, the attraction of investment capital in economic growth activities has achieved positive results, becoming one of the important driving forces for economic growth; Fourthly, many aspects of social security and environment have remarkable improvement. 3.3.2. Limitations
Firstly, the region's economic growth in the period 2008-2017 is uneven and unsustainable; Secondly, the regional structure of the region in the period of 2008-2017 is uneven and unsustainable; Third, investment capital for development is low; Fourthly, there are still many limitations on the quality of human resources of the region; Fifth, environmental pollution, especially in industrial zones, still exists; Sixthly, the level of sustainability in the economic growth process in the region in the period of 2008-2017 is still not commensurate with the potential and advantages of the region. 3.3.3. The cause of the limitations
Firstly, mechanisms and policies for planning economic growth in the region are not flexible; Secondly, although the education and training system is paid attention, the quality of training is limited and fail to meet the needs of society; Thirdly, difficulties in using limited investment capital to achieve efficiency; Fourthly, the infrastructure system has not kept up with the needs of economic growth and development and is increasingly overloaded; Fifth, the mechanism of management and handling of violations is still loose, not enough deterrent.
CHAPTER 4 SOME VIEWS AND SOLUTIONS TO PROMOTE REGIONAL SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC GROWTH UP TO 2030
4.1. New development context 4.1.1. New context of global and regional scenarios 4.1.1.1. Globalization and economic integration 4.1.1.2. Complex movements of global politics 4.1.1.3. Trends in science and technology development 4.1.1.4. Increasing global climate change 4.1.2. New context of the country
Regarding to the national socio-economic development strategy, the 8th National Congress stated that by 2020 our country will become “a modern industrialized country”. The 12th National Congress held in 2016 then made adjustments in the socio-economic development for the period of 2016 - 2020 which defines the objectives:
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productivity, efficiency improve model,
“Ensuring macroeconomic stability, striving for economic growth to be higher than 5 years ago. Promote the implementation of strategic breakthroughs, restructure the economy associated with innovation of growth and competitiveness...Promote industrialization, modernization, and try to make our country become a modern industrialized country.” (Document of the 12th National Congress: 60). 4.1.3. New development contexts of the Southeast region
The Southeast region has continuously maintained its role as one of the most developed regions in the country. Regarding the strategy of socio- economic development to 2020, the Prime Minister approved Decision No. 943/QD-TTg with the goal that by 2020, the region must be built and developed to become a driving force for the process of growth and development of the whole country; become the major economic, financial and commercial center of the country and the region. However, the development situation of the region still has many shortcomings. The environmental quality is declining due to the consequences of the expansion of the industrial parks and the lack of coordination between localities to address the pollution, it causes many places to be seriously polluted and affected the lifehood of people living in the region. Although human resources are numerous, they are not sophisticated, the quality and level of human resources do not meet the needs of key economic sectors, especially in areas related to high-end science and technology. The uneven development process among the provinces and cities in the region makes the disparity of regional socio-economic development level become increasingly clear. 4.2. Forecasting and identifying growth cases of the Southeast region to 2030 4.2.1. Cases of regional growth of the Southeast region to 2030 4.2.1.1. Case 1
The more developed localities (HCMC, BR-VT and BD and DN) continue to be the priority localities for development investment, thus becoming a driving force for the process of growth and development of the whole region. 4.2.1.2. Case 2 The Southeast region does not focus on promoting economic growth
in more developed localities. 4.2.1.3. Case 3
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The more developed localities successfully take advantage of the investment capital to make a breakthrough in economic growth, advanced infrastructure, developed high-tech industries with a group of professional and technical workers available. 4.2.2. Identifying growth possibilities of the Southeast region in the period of 2020-2030
Comparing all 3 cases, it can be seen that case 1 is the feasible case and brings the most prospects for growth and development in the South East region to 2030. 4.3. Perspectives and goals for sustainable economic growth in the region (1) Restructuring the regional economy
towards promoting advantages and close links among localities in the region; (2) Focusing on developing but paying attention to the development of all localities in the region to ensure the growth stability; (3) Gradually transforming to a green economy based on high science and technology, high quality human resources and modern management; (4) Agricultural development on the basis of close association with industry and services in the region; (5) Regional economic growth must be in harmony and promote regional sustainable society and environment. 4.4. Some key solutions to promote sustainable economic growth in the Southeast region 4.4.1. Group of solutions for the state level
(1) Adjusting the regional economic development strategy and plan to 2030 to suit the new international, domestic and regional context; (2) Developing the institutional management of regional development. 4.4.2. Group of solutions for local authorities in the Southeast region (1) Carrying out the modern restructuring of economic sectors in the region; (2) Promoting the high-quality human resource training and development to meet the region's labor needs, aiming to become the largest high-quality human resource training center in the country; (3) Modernising the science and technology in the region; (4) Synchronously modernising the infrastructure systems in the region; (5) Promoting green growth on the basis of environmental sustainability. CONCLUSION
The Southeast region is a dynamic region with a particularly important position in the national economy. In general, the economic concentration process of the Southeast region in the period of 2008-2017 has achieved some certain achievements. However, the analysis also 22
reflects the limitations that exist in the period of 2008-2017 and these limitations may have a negative impact on the process of regional sustainable economic growth in the short and long term. In addition, although the level of sustainability in the region's economic growth in the period of 2008-2017 has been improved over time, but it is only at an average level.
With a fairly wide scope of research and complex topics, the thesis still have some issues in systematising related issues; The arguments and solutions built in this thesis also need more time to improve. Due to limitations of time, resources and research capacity, the thesis still has some shortages, including objective limitations from existing data sources. Currently, it can be seen that the development of a set of indicators for assessing sustainability in economic growth at regional level has not been consistent and the data that can be collected are not really comprehensive. This is suggested for future researches to focus more on solving these issues for providing a better solutions for sustainable economic growth of the Southeast region in particular and other regions in general.
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LIST OF RELATED PUBLISHED WORKS BY THE AUTHOR
1. Đỗ Lý Hoài Tân (2016). Theory and practice in sustainable regional economic development in Vietnam. Journal of Social Sciences. 3(211): 9-20
2. Đỗ Lý Hoài Tân (2017). Adopting Chenery theory to recognise the economic development stages of the Southeast region in the period of 1999-2014. Journal of Social Sciences. 6(226): 1-9
