Doctoral dissertation: Statistic Research on Assessment of Sustainable Development in Vietnam

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Research objectives: The overall purpose of the thesis is to formulate a method of calculating the aggregate index for sustainable development so as to implement it in assessing the real sustainability of development in Vienam.

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Nội dung Text: Doctoral dissertation: Statistic Research on Assessment of Sustainable Development in Vietnam

1 2 INTRODUCTION aggregate index for assessment of sustainable development on the basis of the available system of indicators in Vietnam 1. The urgency of the topic - calculates, on the pilot basis, the aggregate index of sustainable development Sustainable development is not only the process of economic development, the in Vietnam in the period 2001 – 2010 increase of output volume but also the sustainability of the development, which ensure 3. Research targets and methodology the progress in terms of economic structure, society and the balance of ecological The thesis’ research target is sustainable development. environment. Research scope: Today, sustainable development is one of the most important missions of every + The thesis collect and synthesize data, calculate and analyze aggregate index country, including Vietnam. In order to monitor the country’s development, Vietnam of sustainable development in the territory of Vietnam has set up a system of statistic index on sustainable development with specific target. + Time target of the research: 10 years from 2001 to 2010, to be suitable to the However, the indicators in such a system may have some opposite fluctuation. Some 10-year strategy for socio-economic development of Vietnam. of them develop well over time, while a few others turn to be worse, affecting the The following statistic methods are used for research purposes: development process negatively. This situation causes some difficulties in assessing - Desk research. This is one of the method for data collection in sociological and analyzing the trend of sustainable development. There have been organizations survey. Basing on the secondary data of sustainable development and the way to and individuals being interested in making aggregate indexes for assessment of calculate the aggregate indexes, the author provides a broad overview of research sustainable development so as to obtain a broad overview of this issue. However, up to target, which later serves as a basis for the later assessment. date there has been no system with specific recommendations being applied in - Statistic tables and graphs. They are used to synthesize and demonstrate data practice. This context has encourages the author to work on the thesis “Statistic and statistic targets of sustainable development over time. Research on Assessment of Sustainable Development in Vietnam”, suggesting a 4. Contribution of the thesis clear, specific and feasible method to calculate the aggregate index of sustainable Through this thesis, the author contributes some new knowledge in terms of development. The author then used the available data of Vietnam in the period 2001 – theory and practice of statistic performance, specifically: 2010 to test the method. This thesis, therefore, contributes in answering the questions First, the thesis formulates a method to calculate an aggregate index of by managers “How to assess the real situation of sustainable development in sustainable development in Vietnam, whereby makes it clear the way to calculate Vietnam?” and “How was the reality of Vietnam’s sustainable development in the individual indicators, component indicators and then aggregate index; identifies the period 2001 – 2010?” higher bound and lower bound of each indicator. This is a new positive contribution in 2. Research objectives term of theory for the future studies in sustainable development in Vietnam. The overall purpose of the thesis is to formulate a method of calculating the Second, in term of practice, the thesis gives out analyses and assessments of aggregate index for sustainable development so as to implement it in assessing the real sustainability of Vietnam’s development over the period 2001 – 2010. The author uses sustainability of development in Vienam. Specifically, the thesis: real data of Vietnam and the above-mentioned formula of calculating aggregate index - systemizes and clarifies the contents related to sustainable development and on a pilot scheme, analyses the reality of sustainable development in Vietnam over the the system of sustainable development index past 10 years. - suggests a method to calculate individual indicators, component indicators and The research results will help Government organizations demonstrate a method
3 4 to synthesize, assess and compare the sustainability of the country’s development. This concept was popularized in 1987 thanks to the Brundtland Report (also Besides, the thesis opens a new direction of perfecting the existing system of statistic called the Report on Our Common Future) by the World Committee for Environment index of sustainable development as well as selects a specific method of assessment in and Development (WCED) under the United Nations. The report made it clear that the coming another 10 years. “sustainable development is the development which can meets the current needs 5. Structure of the thesis without negative impacts and damages to the ability to meet the needs of future After the Introduction, which mentions the urgency, objectives, target and generations" [41, p.37]. scope of the research, the thesis introduces a research overview. The main literature of Sustainable development was known in Vietnam in late 1990s. Basing on the the thesis is divided into 3 parts: above concepts and the nation’s real practice, Vietnamese economic researchers Chapter 1: Overview of sustainable development developed the concept of sustainable development as a basis for completing Chapter 2: Develop a method to calculate aggregate index for assessing development targets of the country. They are healthy development, where the one’s sustainable development in Vietnam development does not harm others’ benefits, individual development does not damage Chapter 3: Pilot calculation and analysis of aggregate index for assessing the community’s benefits, development of one community does not negatively affect sustainable development in Vietnam in the period 2001 – 2010 that of another community, the development of today’s generation does not intervene the interests of the next generation, and the development of human being does not CHAPTER 1. OVERVIEW OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT threat life or worsen living conditions of other creatures on the planet. 1.2. The necessity for implementation of sustainable development 1.1.Concepts of development and sustainable development Everybody in the world would like to perfect his life in order to create magic 1.1.1.Development development ever seen. However, our Earth with its natural conditions cannot meet Development is a popular term used in official documents and daily life. Over those unlimited expectations of human being. Natural resources are limited, so they the different stages of historical development, world economic researchers have made will come to end, natural conditions may become more severe. This create serious a number of concepts of development. conflicts, which require development in harmony between the people and their The concept of development perfects itself along the development of human surrounding environment. Therefore, implementation of sustainable development is society. At present, this concept basically keeps its contents developed in the past considered the top priority of each nation. Organizations and countries, depending on decade but with more emphasis on the human rights. Economic development covers their various objectives, point out the necessity of developing sustainably and various economic growth, progress in economic structure and social progress. contents of sustainable development. 1.1.2. Sustainable development In Vietnam, the issue of sustainable development is made in details in various The term “sustainable development” came out first in 1980s in the document political documents, specifically in the Resolutions of the 4th Plenary National Strategy for world conservation published by the International Union for Conservation Convention of the Communist Party of Vietnam. According to this Resolution, the 10- of Nature and Natural Resources (IUCN) with a very simple notion – "Human year strategy for socio-economic development should “develop fast, efficiently and development is impossible to focus only on economic development, but it should sustainably, achieve economic growth along with accomplishment of social progress respect the natural needs of the society and the impacts on ecological environment " and equality and environment protection”, “create socio-economic development in [40, p.18-19]. close link with environment protection and improvement, ensuring the harmony
5 6 between man-made environment and natural environment, conserving ecological nature; to develop in a close, rational and harmonious link of 3 factors including diversity.” [36]. In the next 10 years from 2011 to 2020, sustainable development is a economic development, social development and environment protection”. This is the th consistent requirement in the Socio-economic Strategy set by CPV in the 11 Plenary basis for sustainable development on 3 factors of economy, society and environment. Meeting: “Sustainable development is a basis for fast development, which create 1.4. A system of indicators of sustainable development resources for sustainable development in its turn. Fast development and sustainable 1.4.1. Some general issues of the system of statistic index development must go together in planning, plans and policies of socio-economic A system of index is a collection of indicators, which includes not any development " [37]. indicators but a systematically selected group of indicators to reflect 2 major contents: 1.3.Contents of sustainable development the most important aspects and features of population and the basic relationship 1.3.1.Contents of sustainable development, according to some international between the aspects of population as well as between the studied population and their organizations related phenomena within the limit of research scope. The Earth Summit on Environment and Development (Rio de Janero 6/1992) To obtain the relevant system of statistic index which can be used to assess the and the ASEM Youth Dialogue on sustainable development agreed that sustainable real situation of development, the system must meet 4 requirements: research development consists of four dimentions, namely economic, social, environmental and objectives, features reflected, feasibility and number of indicators. regulatory. Each country should have its regulatory dimension as a basis for the Based on these requirements, the thesis assess the relevance and feasibility of the planning and policy making, as well as the targets to achieve and the communication system of statistic index for sustainable development applied in Vietnam on a later day. for public. Therefore, these two organizations made regulatory dimension equally 1.4.2.Studies of statistic index system for sustainable development in the world important as the three main dimensions which create the sustainable development in In early 1995, to meet the requirement of UN Committee for Sustainable economy, society and environment. Development (UN CSD), the UN Committee for Economic and Social Issues in Following another approach, two Canadian environmentalists named Jacobs cooperation with experts from various international organization and other members and Sadler define sustainable development in its nature as an aggregate and systematic established a system of statistic index includind 134 national indicators of sustainable development. Seeing the relationship between three factors of economy, society and development. environment, Jacobs and Sadler form sustainable development with a triagle of these In 2001, UN CSD introduced a recommended system of statistic index factors, of which environment is put on top and the factor of regulation is included in including 15 major topics, 38 sub-topics and 58 indicators. This system of index was social factor. This model is later developed into a 3-extreme chart by Mohan adjusted one more time in 2006, serving as a basis for nations to establish their own Munasingle, a World Bank specialist. system of statistic index for sustainable development. This approach is popularized all over the world today for it is a combination of Other organizations under the UN and various social and non-government the 3 factors with a total force to create the stability and sustainability for each nation. organizations also study and introduce their national index e.g. index of human 1.3.2. Vietnam development, index of eco footstep, etc. In 2004, Vietnam established its own sustainable development program called Different nations also introduce strategies for sustainable development AGENDA-21. In this program, Vietnam makes its clear overall objective of AGENDA-21 together with a system of statistic index for sustainable development sustainable development as “to achieve abundance of materials, richness of culture and with a large range of indicators and contents, e.g Indonesia (21 indicators), China (80 spirit, equality of citizens and consensus of society, harmony between human and indicators), UK (15 indicators), USA (32 indicators)...
7 8 1.4.3.Studies of statistic index system for sustainable development in Vietnam Organization in charge No. Indicators Plan Along with the world trend Vietnamese researchers have studied to set up its of collection own system of statistic index for sustainable development. The research process gets Proportion of recycle energy in the energy Ministry of Trade and 8 2011 the attention of various ministries, industries and organizations. The results include the consumption structure (%) Industry introduction of some systems of index. Over time, the system of statistic index for Consumption Price Index (CPI) (% sustainable development has been perfected and implemented in real life. With 9 MPI (GSO) 2011 compared with the last December) expectation to have a unanimous system of statistic index, on 12 April 2012, The Prime Minister signed Decision 432/QĐ-TTg to approve the Vietnam’s Strategy for 10 Current Balance (bil. USD) State Bank 2011 Sustainable Development period 2011 - 2020. Pursuant to this decision, the system of statistic index for supervison and assessment of Vietnam’s sustainable development 11 State deficit (%/GDP) Ministry of Finance 2011 period 2011 - 2020 consists of 30 indicators with data sources and implementation 12 Sovereign Debt (%/GDP) Ministry of Finance 2011 plan as described in Table 1.1. Table 1.1. System of statistic index for supervision and assessment of Chairing: Ministry of Vietnam’s sustainable development 13 Foreign Debt (%/GDP) Finance 2011 Organization in charge Cooperating: State Bank No. Indicators Plan of collection III Social Indicators I Aggregate indicators MPI (GSO) 14 Rate of Poverty (%) 2011 1 Green GDP (in VND or USD) MPI (GSO) 2015 15 Rate of Unemployement (%) MPI (GSO) 2011 2 Human Development Index (HDI) (0-1) MPI (GSO) 2015 Rate of trained employees working in the MPI (GSO) 3 Index on Environment Sustainability (0-1) MPI (GSO) 2015 16 2011 economy (%) II Economic indicators Coefficient of inequality in income MPI (GSO) 17 2011 Efficient use of investment capital (ICOR) MPI (GSO) distribution (Gini coefficient) (times) 4 (increase of implemented investment capital 2011 18 Gender Ratio at birth (boys/100 girls) Ministry of Health 2011 by 1 GDP dong) MPI (GSO) Number of students/10.000 people Ministry of Education 5 Labor productivity (USD/worker) 2011 19 2011 (students) and Training Proportion of contribution by productivity MPI (GSO) Number of Internet subscribers Ministry of Information 6 of aggregate factors in overall growth rate 2015 20 2011 (subscribers/100 people) and Communication (%) Rate of population benefitted from social, Decrease in energy consumption in Viet Nam Social 7 MPI (GSO) 2015 21 health and unemployment insurance (%) 2011 production of 1 GDP unit (%) Security
9 10 Organization in charge CONCLUSION OF CHAPTER 1 No. Indicators Plan of collection Chapter 1 presents an overview of sustainable development, including concepts, Number of death by traffic accidents 22 Ministry of Police 2011 necessity and major contents. Sustainable development is a firm combination and (people/100.000 people/year) inter-relations between economic development and social issues and environment Rate of villages recognized to meet criteria Ministry of Argriculture factors in harmony, stability and flexibility. These factors present an urgent priority to 23 2015 of new rural community (%) and Rural Development every nations, including Vietnam. Indicatiors of environment and natural Contents of sustainable development concentrate in three areas of economy, IV resources society and environment, which should be equally treated. These contents are bases for Ministry of Argriculture 24 Rate of forest coverage (%) 2011 developing a system of statistic index for sustainable development in the world and in and Rural Development Vietnam as well. From this suggestion Chapter 1 introduces some available systems of Rate of land areas protected and maintaining Ministry of Environment 25 2011 statistic index for sustainable development analyses in depth the current system of bio- diversity (%) and Natural Resources statistic index for sustainable development of Vietnam. This is the latest system Ministry of Environment 26 Area of deteorated land (mil. ha) 2015 introduced by the Government, with presence of some aggregate indicators to give and Natural Resources assessment of various aspects. Decrease of underground and surface water Ministry of Environment 27 2011 The later part of the Chapter analyzes the similarity and difference of Vietnam’s volume (m3/person/year) and Natural Resources system of statistic index for sustainable development and the system recommended by Ministry of Environment the UN Council for sustainable development. Besides, the author points out some Rate of days with high level of toxicated air 28 and Natural Resources 2011 exceeding the accepted level (%) limitations in the system to address in the coming time. In the recommended system of statistic index the assessment will be - Chairing: Ministry of implemented on separated indicators, which reflect each and every dimension of Rate of urban areas, industrial and Construction sustainable development. However, if stopping at that point, the thesis cannot come up processing zones and industrial clusters with - Cooperating: Ministry with an overall conclusion on the results of sustainable development in the country. 29 standardized processing of solid wastes and of Environment and 2011 There should be an assessment on the process of sustainable development over time to waste water to meet relevant national Natural Resources; standards and technical requirements (%) Ministry of Trade and compare and withdraw experience for development. Right here is the gap in both Industry theory and practice calling for further research in this thesis. - Chủ trì: Ministry of Rate of solid waste collected and processed Construction 30 to meet relevant national standards and - Phối hợp: Ministry of 2011 technical requirements (%) Environment and Natural Resources (Source:Decision 432/QĐ-TTg dated 12 April 2012 by the Prime Minister)
11 12 CHAPTER 2. DEVELOPING A METHOD FOR CALCULATION Through this overview it can be seen that various methods are used to calculate OF AGGREGATE INDEX FOR ASSESSMENT the aggregate index. However, studies focusing on the aggregate index of sustainable OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN VIETNAM development in Vietnam are rare, with only one study titled “Identify a set of indicators of sustainable development and develop a database for supervising 2.1. Overview of method for development of aggregate index ng quan nghiên cứu về sustainable development in Vietnam” within the framework of project VIE/01/021 phương pháp xây dựng chỉ số tổng hợp implemented at the Ministry of Planning and Investment. In that study the weighted There are various methods developed to calculate the aggregate indes, arithmetic average method is used to calculate the aggregate index. However, the specifically: suggestion given in this study just introduce a direction to calculate the index of First, to calculate the human development index (HDI), UNDP use the simple national sustainable development but not a specific method for calculation. HDI = I / I / I / formula of average multiple of the 3 component indicators: 2.2.Suggestion on a method to calculate the aggregate indext for sustainable development in Vietnam In the formula to calculate the aggregate index, the component indicators are 2.2.1.Method to calculate individual indicators calculated using the theory of min-max data standardization. To calculate and analyze 2.2.1.1.Selection of a formular to calculate individual indicators data in the simplest way, the UN Statistics Organization has guided how to calculate First, regarding positive indicators: the higher the values of these indicators, the component indicators so that they can receive value between [0,1]. more sustainable the development. Using the method to calculate the aggregare index In addition, UNDP’s Report on human development in 1991 introduced another introduced by the UN in HDI calculation, one of the following two formulas: Real value − Minimum value I= indicator, namely the indicator of human’s freedom. The study implemented simple Formula 2.1: Maximum value − Minimum value calculation method: give 1 point for each indicator which ensure the right for freedom, and 0 point for those violating it. After that, the accumulated scores of 40 indicators ln(Real value) − ln(Minimum value) I= Formula 2.2: ln(Maximum value) − ln(Minimum value) will serve as the basis for classifying nations about ensuring human right for freedom. Besides, a study by Yale University (USA) in cooperation with Columbia University and the World Economic Forum introduced a formula to calculate Second, regarding negative indicator: the higher the value of indicators, the less Environmental Performance Index (EPI) 2008 and Environmental Sustainability Index sustainable the indicators and vice versa. The thesis will be adjusted toward positive (ESI) 2005 [39]. According to this method, the aggregate index (ESI scores) is indicators. When the indicator value increases to nearly 1, the nation’s development is calculated in 2 ways: direct calculation from 21 indicators and indirect calculation more sustainable. In that the formula will be opposite. Real value − Minimum value from 5 topics of 5 main groups of issues. The simple arithmetic average (without I=1− Formula 2.3: Maximum value − Minimum value weight) is used to calculate the indicators. The weighted arithmetic average, in which weights are determined by the experts of the study, is used to calculate the topics. ln(real value) − ln(minimum value) There are several methods to determine the specific weight for each indicator in I=1− Formula 2.4: ln(maximum value) − ln(minimum value) the system of statistic index, namely the general method by Dr. Nguyễn Trọng Hậu from the Institute for Europe Studies, method of statistic analysis using correlation regression (multivariate regression) and key element analysis, semi-matrix or expert methods. Third, regarding central-tendency indicators: the closer the indicator’s value to
13 14 a central value, the more sustainable the development. The following are formulas 2.5 used. Therefore, to best reflect the reality and to make the aggregate index more |real value − central value| and 2.6: meaningful in the case of data diversity, the geometric average is the best choice. I= |maximum value − central value| 2.2.2.2. Simple or weighted geometric average? The thesis introduces both two methods of calculation. The real data collected |ln(real value) − ln(central value)| and: I= will decide which method would be suitable in the current conditions of Vietnam. |ln(maximum value) − ln(central value)| The most important in developing weighted geometric average formula is to give a suitable weight to individual specific indicators. Method of semi-matrix is a Thus, depending on its characteristics, each indicator will be calculated simple and quite effective because it takes the nation’s development strategy in a according to a relevant specific formula. specific period into cosideration. 2.2.1.2.Identify minimum and maximum values 2.2.3.Formula to calculate the aggregate index of sustainable development Within the scope of this thesis the author gives out 2 alternatives for the According to the content of sustainable development and the Vietnamese following reasons: perspective of development, sustainable development means a balanced and First, regarding the group of positive and negative indicators: harmonious development between three aspects, namely economy, society and - Maximum value: If the indicators’ maximum limit possible can be identified, environment, with no bias on any of these aspects. Therefore, the contribution of each it will also be used as maximum value. If it is impossible to identified the values or if aspect into development is equal. The author, therefore, choose the simple geometric there is no instruction on sustainable limit of those values, the maximum values to be average formula (without weight) to calculate the aggregate index of sustainable taken will be the value of trend, i.e. the maximum value of the indicators during the development. This method of calculation ensures the coverage of development study period. contents and their meanings and is easy to implement. - Minimum value: Similar to maximum values, if the minimum limit of the Formula: I  4 I TH  I KT  I XH  I MT values can be identified, the miimum value will take. Other indicators can take the value of trend as its minimum value. Besides, in the situation of date being not or not fully available, if the number Second, regarding the group of central-tendency indicators. of indicators in the group is not enough to represent the group of indicators, the - Central value: If there is information about the optimum value of the indicator, component index calculated will not reflect accurately the reality of development. the central value will take that value. For the rest of indicators, the choice will be made Then, it is necessary to calculate the aggregate index of sustainable development upon each indicator’s characteristics. directly from individual indicators, accepting their equal role and contribution to the - Maximum value: the value of the biggest difference (either positive or n index value. The overall formula is: I  n  I i negative) from the central value in the time series. i1 2.2.2. Methods to calculate component indicators According to the above formula, the aggregate index of sustainable 2.2.2.1.Aritmethic or geometric average? development is always valued between 0 – 1. Different values will show different Both the averages take the common feature of general average. However, the levels of sustainable development. From this finding, the author suggests a scale to geometric average respects the equality than the arithmetic one. An indicator with high measure the development to identify the level of sustainable development in Vietnam value cannot make the overall index’s value rocket if the geometric average formula is when the calculation results of the aggregate index is completed, as follows:
15 16 0.0 - 0.2: develop unsustainably CHAPTER 3. EXPERIMENTAL CALCULATION AND ANALYSIS OF 0.2 - 0.4: develop fairly sustainably FLUCTUATION IN VIETNAM’S INDEX OF SUSTAINABLE 0.4 - 0.6: develop relatively sustainably DEVELOPMENT PERIOD 2001 – 2010 0.6 - 0.8: develop quite sustainably 0.8 - 1.0: develop very sustainably 3.1. Experimental calculation of aggregate index of sustainable development in Vietnam in the period 2001 – 2010 CONCLUSION OF CHAPTER 2 3.1.1.Current situation of data of statistic indicators in Vietnam The system of statistic index of sustainable development selected for From the available system of statistic index for sustainable development calculating the aggregate index of sustainable development is the system used for Chapter 2 has reviewed various studies on aggregate index and recommended a development plan in the period 2011 - 2020. Therefore, when using it for experimental method to calculate the aggregate index of sustainable development in Vietnam. This calculation for the period 2000 - 2010, the real data are not sufficient. There are many is also the main content of the thesis. indicators not sufficiently collected. In fact, there are only 16 indicators having enough The indicators in the system of statistic index of sustainable development are data for experimental calculation. classified into 3 groups of positive, negative and internal indicators. The author 3.1.2. Calculation of individual indicators identify formulas to calculate individual indicators and their minimum and maximum The individual indicators are calculated by the relevant formulas mentioned in values in each group. From the individual indicators the author analyzes and selects various formulas to calculate component indicators using the averages: arithmetic or Chapter 2, after identifying each indicator and from the available time series and geometric averages, simple or weighted geometric averages. Then the author goes on selecting the relevant maximum and minimum values. with identifying the weights in the formula for weighted averages. 3.1.3. Calculation of component indicators The last content in Chapter 2 refers to developing a formula to calculate the Formulas mentioned in Chapter 2 are used to calculate the appropriate aggregate index of sustainable development. The author gives out 2 formulas to component indicators in two cases: the formulas of simple arithmetic average and calculate the average directly from individual indicators in the case when data are not weighted arithmetic average. available and indirectly from component indicators when data collected mostly in full. 3.1.4. Calculation of aggregate index of sustainable development After developing formulas, the author deals with the questions e.g. whether the Using the formula recommended in Chapter 2, the author calculates and obtains formulas are really different in assessing the sustainability of the development, and the results of index of sustainable development with 3 different formulas: (1) direct which formula or method are practical enough to be implemented in reality. These calculation from individual indicators; (2): calculation from component indicators questions cannot be answered with theoretical arguments but need being proved by which are computed by the formula of simple geometric average; (3): calculation from real evidence. The real data of Vietnam’s development in the period 2001 – 2010 are component indicators which are computed by the formula of weighted geometric used in the light of the above theory for experimental calculation, then for selecting average. appropriate formulas to prove the feasibility of the study. The calculation results are shown in Table 3.1.
17 18 Table 3.1. Aggregate index of sustainable development 3.2. Analyzing trend of substainable development in Vietnam in the period 2001 – of Vietnam in the period 2001 - 2010 by different methods of calculation 2010 Unit: time 3.2.1. Choosing the method of analysis Year Using the method of statistical tables and graphs, we will have an intuitive 2001 \\2002 2003 2004 2005 Method overview on the trend of sustainable development of Vietnam for the past 10 years. (1) 0.295 0.344 0.370 0.434 0.494 3.2.2. Trend of substainable development in Vietnam in the period of 2001 - 2010 (2) 0.414 0.453 0.476 0.522 0.568 Selec the method of calculating the index of substainable development basing (3) 0.415 0.459 0.483 0.530 0.569 on individual indicators, using simple geometric average. Calculation results are represented in Figure 3.1. Year 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Method (1) 0.492 0.403 0.316 0.284 0.420 (2) 0.569 0.509 0.446 0.420 0.529 (3) 0.574 0.523 0.460 0.435 0.565 3.1.4.Comments on the methods of calculating the aggregate index of sustainable development The three methods of calculation mentioned above show three different results. The two following cases are observed: - When the data of indicators were not sufficient, one indicator could not be representative for the whole big group, so in this case the first formula (calculated directly from individual indicators) better reflected the reality of sustainable Figure 3.1. Vietnam’s index of Sustainable development in the period development in Vietnam for the past 10 years. 2001 - 2010 - When there were enough data of indicators, the second method of calculation, Actual development of Vietnam in the period of 2001 – 2010 was not really which was to use indirect average through component indicators, would be more stable and sustainable . In the early days of this decade (from 2001 to 2005 ), the suitable. The aggregate index of sustainable development also needs building based development trend was quite good. The index of substainable development gradually odeveloping on the basis of representative levels for each field. increased over time. If sustainable development was weak at 0.280 in 2001, it reached Thus, due to the fact that there were not enough data of the indicator system in the average level with the value of 0.470 in 2006. The sustainable development the period of 2001 - 2010, the study would select results from the first method of slightly decreased since 2006 and sharply went down from 2007 to 2009. The index of calculation, which is to use simple geometric average of individual indicators as the sustainable development in 2009 only stayed in the range of a fairly sustainable basis for the analysis of the current status of sustainable development in Vietnam. development; in other words, the substainability was weak, even worse than that in 2001 with the value of 0.270. However, Vietnam had a breakthrough in 2010 with the
19 20 index of substainable development of 0.400. Although it still did not came back to the 1.000 level of substainable development of the mid-decade, in general Vietnam tended to 0.900 recover its momentum by 2010. 0.800 Which of the group(s) of indicators, among those having contributed to the 0.700 0.600 sustainable development, held strong fluctuation which affected the overall fluctuation? 0.500 2008 This question is answered as in the graph of Figure 3.2. 0.400 2009 0.300 0.200 0.100 0.000 ICOR NSLĐ XH Tỷ trọng CPI Cán cân Bội chi Nợ nước TFP vãng lai NSNN ngoài Figure 3.3. Changes in group of economic indicators 2008 - 2009 In contrast to 2008, in 2009 the government implemented stimulus packages that made certain recovery of international economic relations as well as kept the speed of increasing consumer price within one single digit (by using the solution Figure 3.2. Fluctuation of Economic and Social Sectors indicators in the period package of curbing inflation, tightening the monetary policy); however, this caused a 2001 - 2010 decrease in the contribution proportion of TFP among the indicators to the general It is easy to see the significant improvement of society when people's lives growth and the state budget deficit. gradually progressed year by year. However, this indicator group had relatively low 3.3. General assessment on the index of substainable development and some values compared to the economic indicators. It means that the improvement of living recommendations did not keep pace with the economic development of Vietnam. Life and living 3.3.1. General assessement on the index of substainable development environment were still the issues that needed attention and priorities to be addressed. From the results of experimental calculation of the indext of sustainable The changing trend of the indicators in the economic field was similar to the development in Vietnam in the period of 2001 - 2010, the author comes back to general changes of sustainable development. Among those economic indicators, which evaluate the suitability of the system of statistical indicators of sustainable indicators made a significant impact on such general volatility, if considered in two development as well as the formulas proposed in Chapter 2. years of sharp decline in economy 2008 and 2009? First, for the system of statistical indicators of sustainable development: The In 2008, the current account balance was the main reason for the economic number of indicators was quite large, making the process of calculating the overall decline, being the lowest in the 10-year period with deficit of $10.79 billion, much index become cumbersome; some indicators do not ensure the consistency of lower than the other years. The second reason was the consumer price index CPI or calculating methods, data sources, and the reporting periods, which cause many inflation (CPI in 2008 was up to 123%). difficulties in data collection, affecting the accuracy of the calculated results; there was
21 22 an overlap that leads to the duplication of the aggregate index of substainable Related Related ministries, development. departments ministrial-level Second, for the proposed formulas: Proposal of stages of calculating the agencies Office for Council of aggregate index of sustainable development is based on the overall study and analysis national National Governm substainable Substainable of the available system of statistical indicators. The indicators calculated in the same Bureaus of Specialized ent development Development period had to be integrated in the scope and methods of calculation in order to ensure Statistics in divisions – General the comparability. However, for each different stage of development, there might have provinces and Statistics Office different changes. cities 3.3.2. Some recommendations of and solutions to the statistical work on substainable development in Vietnam Figure 3.1. Multi-level model of statistical reports 3.3.2.1. Recommendations - For the system of statistical reports: - For the Government and the Council of National Sustainable Development: Sustainable development is also a macro problem and should be accumulated in there is a need to organize a specialized department in order to analyze the statistical in quantity in a long time. Therefore, the data of the statistical indicators of sustainable indicators collected, thereby evaluate the status of sustainable development in Vietnam development should be periodically aggregated every year by the responsible agencies. in each period. On that basis, the Council of National Sustainable Development can propose directions, policies, and goals of sustainable development for the next years to the government. These development goals will be the basis to determine the actual CONCLUSION OF CHAPTER 3 maximum and minimum values in the formula of calculating separate indicators as proposed. The main content of Chapter 3 deals with the data collection of the indicators in - For the statistical industry: It is necessary to carry out re-checking the the system of statistical indicators of sustainable development, thereby the application indicators in the system of statistical indicators of sustainable development so as to get of the calculation process described in Chapter 2 to calculate the aggregate index of the best indicator system to assess the development process in Vietnam. The GSO also sustainable development. With different formulas, the author comes up with many needs to do research in order to provide specific methods of calculation, integrating the different results for indicators of sustainable development. To be able to select aggregate index of sustainable development, helping the Council of National appropriate methods, the author used methods of statistical graphs and tables for Sustainable Development in assessing and analyzing the development situation of the comparison and analysis. country. With the available analyses, the author choses the most appropriate formula for - For the related ministries and ministerial-level agencies: it is important to the data conditions in the period of 2001-2010. Although it was only relative due to the coordinate with related agencies, unifying the methodology of calculating some new limit of indicators in quantity and the inconsistent sources of data, the aggregate index indicators, understanding and periodically reporting the statistical figures required so of sustainable development partly reflected the development process in Vietnam as to summarize, process, and analyze data in time. during the 10-year period from 2001 to 2010. That proves the feasibility of the 3.3.2.2. Solutions research thesis. - For the multi-level model of statistical reports: Through calculation and graphical analysis, the aggregate index of sustainable
23 24 development shows that the results of the development of Vietnam was not really Government, making conditions of better assessing the current status of sustainable stable and sustainable as expected in the strategy of socio-economic development in development of the country. the period of 2001-2010. The economy developed unstably due to the influence from - Recommend the aggregated evaluation process of sustainable development, the general scence of the world as well as of the related policies. Although people's including formulas and methods to determine the factors in calculating individual lives were improved, they were still quite low, only moderate. indicators, component indicators, and aggregate index of sustainable development. In the last part of the chapter, the author returns to assess the indicator system This is the key content of the thesis. The result of this process will show an overview as well as the proposed formulas, basing on the calculation results and analysis of the of the development process of Vietnam in the study period. aggregate index of sustainable development in the period 2001-2010 in Vietnam. - Collect data of indicators in the period of 2001-2010 to experimentally Thereby, the author makes some recommendations and suggests solutions to perfect calculate the proposed index of sustainable development. The calculation demonstrates the statistical work in developing a mechanism of collecting, summarizing, and the feasibility of the studyin this thesis. Moreover, the author analyzes the current publishing the data of sustainable development in the future. status of sustainable development of Vietnam in the period of 2001 - 2010 basing on the calculated results. CONCLUSION - Presenting some recommendations and solutions in order to well perform statistical work on sustainable development in Vietnam, enabling the best data Sustainable development – the process of balanced and harmonious condition, contributing to accurately assessing the sustainability of the development development of all three factors of economy, society, and environment – is the final process of the country. goal of most countries in the world today. The “Strategy of Socio-economic The thesis proposed a basic methodology to calculate the aggregate index of Development of Vietnam 2001 – 2020” has determined the development perspective sustainable development for Vietnam in every stage of development. On this basis, it in this period as "Rapid development closely associates with substainable is possible to build a system of statistical indicators, and to calculate the aggregate development, sustainable development is the consistent goal in the strategy". index of sustainable development among provinces over time. Thereby, it is possible To assess the performance, the Government launched the system of statistical to enable comparing and assessing the development levels of each and every province indicators to monitor and evaluate sustainable development. Thereby, it is crucial to all over the country, making conclusion on the weaknesses to be overcome in order to have the aggregate index to assess the process of substainable development basing on make the country develop more substainably. This thesis will also serve as the basis this indicator system. To contribute to the implemetation of that requirement, the thesis for further research in the future. has studied and solved some basic problems as follows: - Generalize the concepts, the need for, and the content of sustainable development. This is the rationale for studying and analyzing the system of statistical indicators of sustainable development. - Summarize some systems of statistical indicators of sustainable development available in the world; generalize and analyze the strengths and weaknesses of the system of statistical indicators of sustainable development in Vietnam. The thesis analyzed and proposed solutions of improvement to the indicator system issued by the