KH&CNN - 89*09/2009*23
DINH
HirdNG
PHAT TRIEN
NANG
LirUNG
VIET NAM
• •
•
Tiir2GG6 DEN
2015
ly I
gay
18/6/2007,
ThCi tUdng
Chinh
phii
f \ f
da phe chuan Tdng sd dd phat trien
I V dien qud'c gia tif nam 2006 - 2015
djnh hydng den nam 2025 (Tong so dd VI)
De phat trien kinh te xa hdi
ciia
dat nude vdi
mifc tang GDP khoang 8,5 - 9% trong mdt nam
va cao hon trong thdi gian 2006 -
2015,
yeu eau
tieu thy dien dugc dy bao tang
17%/nam
(dy
bao eo ban) va 20% (dy bao
myc
cao) trong giai
doan 2006 - 2015; dy bao
myc
cao
dUOc
xac
dinh la dy bao thye thi va dy bao 22%/nam cho
trudng hop tang
trifdng
manh.
Sy phat trien ngudn nang
lugng
dien phai
dap img yeu cau eua phu tai. Nd phai
duge
dam
bao hieu qua chung khi xay dyng nha may thuy
dien
nhu
ket hgp chd'ng lut, cung cap nude va
san xuat
dien;
nha may nhiet dien dd't khi phai
dygc phat trien hop ly va ed hieu qua; nha may
nhiet dien dd't than phai dugc tang cudng; nha
may thuy dien nhd, nang lygng mdi va nang
lugng tai tao phai dugc phat trien d nhiing vung
ddi nui, nang lugng dien phai dugc trao ddi vdi
cac nydc trong khu vyc. Cung cap dien qud'c gia
phai dugc dam bao va phat trien ben vung. Giai
doan chuan bj thiet ke nha may dien hat nhan
phai dugc hoan thanh.
Nhting trung tam dieu phd'i dien d cac viing
trong ca nude phai dugc phat trien
phii
hgp de
dam bao do tin cay
ciia
cung cap dien dja
phuong va giam tdn that edng sua't ky thuat cho
toan he thdng va dam bao tinh kinh te cua san
xuat va ddng gdp vao sy phat trien kinh te xa
hdi eho moi viing va cho toan dat nude.
Sy phat trien
eiia
nhUng ngudn dien mdi phai
dugc tinh de'n theo chieu sau va ddi mdi edng
nghe d nha may dien de dam bao tieu chuan
mdi trudng,
sCl
dung cdng nghe hien dai cho
nhung nha may dien
mdi...
1.
Cd ca'u he thong dien va tinh hinh san
xuift
nang
lUdng
dien
Tinh hinh san xuat dien
eiia
he thdng
dien Viet Nam dugc gidi thieu trong cac bang
1,
2,3,4.
Bang
1. Oct
cau he thdng dien nam 2007
Toan he thong
Thupc
EVN:
-Nha
may thuy
dien
-
NMNO
dot than
-
NMNB
dot dau, khi
Tram phat dien Diesel
va thuy dien nho
Ngoai EVN
Cong suat dat
MW
13.512
9.386
4.393
1.545
3.448
454
3.675
%
69,46
32,51
11,43
25,52
3,36
27,18
CS phat dien
GWh
68,699
50.616
21.480
8.973
20.163
42
18.041
%
73,68
31,27
13,06
29,35
0,06
26,26
Bang
2.
Tmh hinh san xuat dien nam 2007
NMND
Nhiet dien than
- Pha
Lai
1
-
Pha Lai
2
- Uong Bi
-UongBiMRI
- Ninh Binh
Nhiet dien dau
- Thu DCrc
-
Can
Tho
Tuabin khi
-
Ba
Ria
-Phil
My
2.1
-
Phu
My
1
-Phu My
4
- Thu
DCfc
-Can
Tho
To may
4x110
2x300
(50 +
55)
1x300
4x25
3
1
8GT,
2ST
4ST,
2ST
3GT1ST
2GT, 1ST
4
4
P«,(MW)
1.545
440
600
105
300
100
200
165
35
3.248
399
982
1.138
468
111
150
San
liTdng
(MWh)
8.973
2.832
4.198
694
520
729
740
603
137
18.880
1.902
5.843
7.992
3,142
70
151
24*KH&CNN - 89*09/2009
Bang
3.
So
gid van hanh
cUa
NMND
(2002-2007)
NMND 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
NMND dot
than
Pha
Lai 1
Pha
Lai
ii
Uorg
Bi
UongHMRI
Ninh Binh
5.168
2.252
6.638
5.490
5.861
5.337
6.962
6.810
5.002
5.870
6.095
6.315
5.628
7130
6419
6.830
6.676
7191
7.206
7.942
6.437
6.996
6.613
1.733
7.292
NMND dot
dau
Thu
OLTC
Can Tho
Tuabin
khi(da
BaRia
Phu My
2.1
Phu
My 1
Phu My
4
Thu
DCrc
Can Tho
4.921
6.242
J khi vac
5.669
1.705
5.221
1.584
1.208
4.224
5.848
hu trinh
r
5.358
4.331
5.748
510
329
2.306
5.347
ion
hop)
5.402
5.457
5.835
3.456
135
1.024
3.424
3.945
5.470
4.451
6.499
6.221
269
941
2.858
J
3.878
5.401
7.543
5.759
6.842
258
726
3.654
4.161
^4.970
6.790
7.218
6.858
599
1.005
Bang 4. Suat tieu thu nhien lieu
va ty
IS
dien
ti/dung
NMND Suat tieu thu nhien
lieu
(g/kWh;
BTU/kWh) Tyle dien tudiing
(%)'
NMND dot
than
Pha
Lai 1
Pha Lai
11
Uong Bi
UongBiMRI
Ninh Binh
438
344
(standard coal) 561
565
9,25
8,66
11,47
9,55
NMND dot
dau
Thfl DiJc
Can Tho
271-248
277
5,83 - 5,98
5,52
Tuabin khi (dau,
khi va
chu trinh hon hop)
BaRja
Phu My
2.1
Phli My 1
Phu My
4
Thu
DOc
Can Tho
13.423
BTU/kWh;
318g/kWh
11.792
BTU/kWh;
270g/kWh
10.987 BTU/kWh;
272g/kWh
11.575 BTU/kWh;
264g/kWh
320 g/kWh
294g/kWh
GT 0,40 - 0,46;
ST;
5,79
1,48
(GT:
0,32-0,39;
ST 3,74)
1,91
(GT:
0,38-0,64;
ST 4,62)
1,70
(GT:
0,39-0,60;
ST:
4,1)
0,45-0,51
0,29
Dya tren djnh hudng
ciia
Tdng sd 56 VI, ke
hoach phat trien dien
nhUsau.
San xuat nang lupng dien: de thoa man nhu
cau ve cdng sua't
eiia
nen kinh te qud'c dan, san
xua't nang lugng dien Viet Nam se la 190.047
ty kWh vao nam 2015 va 431.664 ty kWh vao
nam
2025.
Dy bao nay la phuong an eg sd. Phuong an
eao san xua't dien se la 215.817
ty
kWh vao
nSm
2015 va 489.621
ty
kWh vao
n§m
2025.
Ke hoach phat trien nguon dien:
Dd'i vdi phuong an eg sd, tdng cdng sua't dien
se duge xay dyng them trong nam 2006 - 2015 ke
ca dien nhap khau se la 75.679 MW trong dd
34.590 MW cho nha may nhiet dien dd't
than;
12.376 MW cho nha may nhiet dien dot khi; 4.000
MW cho nha may nhiet dien hat nhan; 12.648 MW
cho thuy
dien,
4.800 MW cho nha may thuy dien
tich
nSng,
2.134 MW eho nha may thuy dien
nlid
va nha may nang lugng tai tao va 5.131 MW do
nhap khau.
Phat trien he thdng dien:
PhUdng an cd ban cho nhung nam 2006 - 2025
se dugc xay dyng nhu sau:
- 8.921 km dudng day 500 kV, 13.761 km
dudng day 220kV va 18.159 km dudng day
llOkV.
- Tram bien the 500kV ed cdng sua't 48.750
MVA, tram bien the 220kV cd cdng sua't 110.059
MVA va tram bien the
llOkV
cd cdng sua't
125.560 MVA.
- 256.560 km dUdng day trung ap va ha ap va
124.000
MVA tram phan phd'i
dien.
Dau tu vd'n cho dien
tU
nam 2006 - 2025 la: 80
ty USD trong dd 52 ty USD eho ngudn cdng sua't
va 28 ty USD cho he thdng tai
dien.
Trung binh
moi
nSm 4ty
USD.
2.
Phan cong nghiep than:
Tdng ngudn than tren pham vi toan qud'c da
dugc khai thac - tham tra - danh gia tai thdi diem
thang 1/2006, xin tham khao trong bang 5.
Tdng san lugng khai thac (mifc A + B + 01 +
02)
CLia
cac loai than tren toan qud'c dugc huy ddng
cho ke hoach phat trien cdng nghiep than Viet
Nam trong giai doan 2006-2025 la 3.695.447 ngan
tan (tham khao bang 6).
Tdng cae loai than d Viet Nam vao khoang
3.625.966 ngan tan. San
lugng
than se
dUOc
khai
thac la 46 trieu tan nam
2010,
46 - 50 trieu tan vao
nam
2015,
57 - 63 trieu tan vao
n§m
2020 va 59 -
66 trieu tan vao
nSm
2025.
Dinh hudng khai thac hpp ly va giam chi phi
khai thac than
Dd'i vdi khai thac than Id thien: cung vdi tang
nang lyc mdt sd md
than,
edng nghiep than se md
rdng pham vi
ciia
md than den eye dai.
Dd'i vdi khai thac than ham Id: ciing vdi sU md
rdng va tang cudng san lugng khai thac cdng
KH&CNN - 89*09/2009*25
Bang 5
Bang 6
nghiep than se day
manli
khao sat
nhSng
md mdi vdi tru lugng
cao,
ddng bd va cdng
nghe hien dai va cd che
khai thac than hieu qua.
Khai thac va phat
trien nhOmg md than
nhd dja phUdng: lap lai
trat ty trong khai thac
than va lya chgn he
thdng de tang trOf
lugng
va xay dyng nhOmg yeu
td mdi vdi tien trinh
hien dai.
Djnh hudng ke
hoach cung cap than
cua mo than Viet Nam
nhusau:
Than
ciia
md than
Mao Khe se cung cap
chinh cho nha may
nhiet dien Pha Lai va
nha may nhiet dien
Mao Khe.
Than
cGa
md than
Vang Danh, Udng Bi,
Yen Tif, Bao Dai va
Dong Vdng se cung cap
than cho nha may nhiet
dien Udng Bi (ed the
cho Hai Phdng), Phan
lan
van
Dien, Khu edng
nghiep Hoanh Bd va
cho xua't khau.
Than cua md than
Hdn Gai se cung cap
than cho nha may nhiet
dien Quang Ninh, Ninh
Binh,
Hai Phdng, Thai
Binh,
ViJng
Ang va eho
xua't khau.
Than
eiia
md than
Cam Pha se cung cap
chinh cho nha may
nhiet dien Quang Ninh,
Cam Pha, Mdng Duong,
Hai Phdng, nhOmg nha
may nhiet dien khac va xua't khau.
Viing
ndi dja se cung ca'p than chinh eho nha
may nhiet dien Na Duong, Cao Ngan va
nhOng
nha may nhiet dien trong
viing.
Viing tam giac
sdng Hdng se cung cap than cho nhOmg nha may
tin liim
Tdng cua
to^n
qudc
VCing
than Quang Ninh
Than
biin
Vung
n6i
dja
Mo than dja phong
Vung
Kho4i
chau
(diSn
tich
80km^)
Tong
c^c
loai than
Than antraxit
Than bitum
Than
nSu
Than bun
Tdng vung than Quang Ninh
Vung Hon Gai
Vung
U6ng
Bi
Viing
Cam Pha
Nguon than
a|a
chat theo muc tieu
nbi niroic
Total
6.164.848
4.049.559
331.790
165.109
37.434
1.580.956
6.127.414
4.118.349
1.580.956
96.319
331.790
4.049.559
740.417
1.346.279
1.962.863
A + B + C
4.992.222
100,00%
3.464J16
235.438
165.109
18.478
1.088.481
4.973.744
3.553.506
1.088.481
96.319
235.438
3.484.716
100,00%
713.791
1.252.578
1.518.347
A
+
B
370.609
7,42%
315.155
0
55.454
0
0
370.609
327.765
0
42.844
0
315.155
9,04%
37.620
17.309
260.326
Cl
2.157.236
43.21%
1.41.399
128.827
91.901
10.238
524.871
2.146.998
1.439.825
524.871
53.475
128.827
1.401.399
40,22%
229.689
444.107
727.604
C2
2.464.377
49,36%
1.768.161
106.611
17.755
8.240
563.610
2.456.137
1.785.916
563.610
0
106.611
1.768.161
50,74%
446.582
791.163
530.417
P
1.172.626
564.843
96.352
0
18.956
492.475
1.153.670
564.843
492.475
0
96.352
564.843
26.626
93.701
444.516
n
/
1
2
3
//
1
2
3
4
Ten vung
Tdng tren toan qudc
Viing Thm Quang Ninh
Vung Cam Pha
VUng
Hdn Gai
VOng U6ng Bl
VCingNgidja
VCing
than
nOi
dja
Than bun
Than dja phuong
Vung Binh minh - Khoai chau
Tai nguyen than dja chat duoc huy dong: 1.000 tan
Tdng
3.695.447
2.826.620
1.301.280
443.213
1.082.127
235.438
18.478
514.871
2006-2010
285.357
269.247
130.898
71.231
67118
16.109
9.276
1.833
5.000
0
2011-2015
391.376
36S.945
178.266
83.250
107.428
22.432
11.073
2.500
1.212
1.636
2016-2020
473.347
390.101
195.064
65.894
129.143
83S4S
11.897
2.500
11.667
57182
2021-2025
547.024
393.100
196.279
57.532
139.290
153.924
11.474
2.500
17.222
122.727
Sau
2025
1.998.344
1.405227
ioo.m
165.307
639.148
593.117
46.320
9.145
194.327
343.326
Bang 7. Tien trinh khai thac than theo
phuo'ng
an da
dupe chinh
ly
den nam 2025 (TVN)
TT
1
2
3
4
Ten
mo
Tdng cua toan
ngiinh
cong nghiep
VUng
Cam Pha
Vung Hbn Gai
Vung U6ng B(
Vung
n6i
dja
San
li/Ong
khai thac (nghin tan)
2010
41.340
20.825
8.400
10.100
2.150
2015
49.015
23.850
9.800
12.900
2.465
2020
51.850
26.205
7.700
12.480
5.465
2030
44.815
20.200
5.700
12.000
6.915
2040
42.315
18700
5.400
12.000
6.215
2050
38.700
15.700
5.400
12.000
5.600
nhiet dien tuong lai se xay dyng sau
nam
2010
theo Id
trinh.
Ngoai ra phai giai quye't van de nhap khau than
cho nhOmg nha may nhiet dien mdi d mien Trung
va d mien Nam.
26*KH&CNN
-
89*09/2009
BVT:
trieu
tan
Nam
1990
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
San lirong
2,7
7,7
8,8
10,1
12,5
15,2
16,3
16,8
16,8
17,7
20,05
18,6
17,3
Bang
9.
Tieu
thu dau
DVT:
1.000
tan
3. Cong nghiep
dau mo
a. Cung
cap dau,
cung
cap khi va nhu cau
dau
tho
„,
,
J..
Bang 8. San luang dau
tho
San lygng
dau
thd khai thac
duy
tri
d
mUc
tang
trudng
eao, dau
thd xua't khau
duoc
ehl ra
trong
bang
8,
tieu
thy
dau trong bang
9,
ty
le san
xua't, tieu
thu trong bang
10.
San xua't
va
tieu
thu
khf:
Hien
nay khi
dang dugc khai
thac khoang
7 ty
ml
Cho phat
dien:
khoang
86%
Cho cdng nghiep
phan bdn:
10%
Cho.
cac
cdng
nghiep khac:
4%
De'n
nay san
lugng
tdng
dau khi
dugc
khai thac
da dat 238
trieu
tan
tinh
de'n
ngay
31/12/2006 trong
dd
206,1
tan la dau va
32,4
ty
m^
gas.
Djnh hudng
cho
chuong trinh phat
trien
dau
khise
la:
San luang
dau va khi se
khai thac:
2006
- 2010: 25 - 30
trieu TOE/nam trong
dd
dau
thd ndi dja 18 - 19
trieu
tan, khi 8 - 10 ty
m^
va
dau thd
dugc khai thac
d
nydc ngoai
la 0,2 - 1
ty
tan.
2011
- 2015: 31 - 34
trieu TOE/nam trong
dd
dau
thd
khai thac trong
ndi dja la 16
-18
trieu
ta'n,
khi
la 11 - 15 ty
ml
va dau tho
khai thac
d
nude
ngoai
la 1,2 - 3
trieu
tan.
2016
-
2025:
34 - 35
trieu TOE/nam trong
dd
dau
thd
dugc khai thac trong
ndi dia la 13 - 15
trieu
tan, khi la 15 - 16 ty
m^
va dau thd
khai thac
d nydc ngoai
la 3,5 - 5,5
trieu
tan.
Tham
dd dau khi
tie'p
tuc
dygc khao
sat va
phat trien
d
nhOmg viing
dau va khi mdi se
dugc,
khai thac.
Bang 10. San xuat
va
tieu
thu
DVT:
1.000
tan
Nam
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Tieu
thu dau
cua
ca
nirdc
8,139
9,236
9,950
10,447
10,774
11,547
Nam
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Tieu
thu
170
202
323
404
518
622
751
896
San xuat
1
140
268
298
347
363
366
343
San
xuat/tieu
thu
(%)
0,6
69
83
74
67
58
49
38
De
an
dudng
d'ng dan khi se
phat trien
de
cung
cap
khi cho nha may
dien
va cho hd gia
dinh.
Ke
hoach chil
dao ve he
thdng
sif
dyng
khi se
phat
trien
d
mien
Nam va
mien
Bac
Viet
Nam;
Cdng nghe
san
xua't
dau khf se
dugc phat trien
de
dam bao an
ninh nhien
lieu.
Sy phat trien
eua
nhiimg trung
tam Igc dau se
duge thye hien theo
ke
hoach.
Petro Viet
Nam da xay
dung
cae nha may
nhiet
dien
ddt khi vdi ke
hoach cdng sua't:
Ca
Maul:
750
MW
Ca
Mau 2:
750MW (3/2008)
Nhon Trach 1:
450 MW
(3/2008)
Nhgn Trach
2: 750 MW
(2009)
4.
Ket
luan
Ve
CO ban
cdng nghiep nang lugng Viet
Nam
da
dap Ung ddi hdi
ciia
san
xua't
va
hoat dpng
xa
hdi.
An
ninh nang lugng cung
nhU
dieu kien
ty
nhien
va thi
trudng nang lugng
the
gidi
de'n nay
edn chua hoan chinh.
An
ninh nang lugng
dat
dygc
sy dam bao ban dau,
nhung chiing
ta
phai
ehu
y
tie'p theo.
Ngudn nang lugng phai dugc
sif
dung
va
khai
thac
hgp
ly
va
hieu
qua hgn.
Nang lugng phai
duge
dam bao de
cung
cap du
vdi chat lugng
cao, gia
thanh
hgp
ly
cho sy
phat
trien kinh
te xa hdi; thj
trudng nang
lUdng
phai
dygc hinh thanh chac chan
d
Viet
Nam.
Cdng nghiep nang lygng
can
thiet phai phat
trien nhanh, hieu
qua ben
vOmg
va bao ve mdi
trudng.
(PV.
Theo ban tieng Anh cua
ThS.
Le
TuSn Phong 12/2008)