KH&CNN - 89*09/2009*23
DINH HirdNG PHAT TRIEN N A NG LirUNG VIET NAM
•
•
•
Tiir2GG6 DEN 2015
1. Cd ca'u he thong dien va tinh hinh san
xuift nang lUdng dien
I gay 18/6/2007, ThCi tUdng Chinh phii ly f \ f da phe chuan Tdng sd dd phat trien I V dien qud'c gia tif nam 2006 - 2015
djnh hydng den nam 2025 (Tong so dd VI)
Tinh hinh san xuat dien eiia he thdng dien Viet Nam dugc gidi thieu trong cac bang 1, 2,3,4.
Bang 1. Oct cau he thdng dien nam 2007
GWh
MW
De phat trien kinh te xa hdi ciia dat nude vdi mifc tang GDP khoang 8,5 - 9% trong mdt nam va cao hon trong thdi gian 2006 - 2015, yeu eau tieu thy dien dugc dy bao tang 17%/nam (dy bao eo ban) va 20% (dy bao myc cao) trong giai doan 2006 - 2015; dy bao myc cao dUOc xac dinh la dy bao thye thi va dy bao 22%/nam cho trudng hop tang trifdng manh.
Cong suat dat % CS phat dien % Toan he thong 13.512 68,699 9.386 69,46 50.616 73,68 Thupc EVN: -Nha may thuy dien 4.393 32,51 21.480 31,27 1.545 11,43 8.973 13,06 - NMNO dot than 3.448 25,52 20.163 29,35 - NMNB dot dau, khi
42
454
Bang 2. Tmh hinh san xuat dien nam 2007
0,06 3,36 Tram phat dien Diesel va thuy dien nho 26,26 18.041 27,18 3.675 Ngoai EVN
440
600
694
105
Sy phat trien ngudn nang lugng dien phai dap img yeu cau eua phu tai. Nd phai duge dam bao hieu qua chung khi xay dyng nha may thuy dien nhu ket hgp chd'ng lut, cung cap nude va san xuat dien; nha may nhiet dien dd't khi phai dygc phat trien hop ly va ed hieu qua; nha may nhiet dien dd't than phai dugc tang cudng; nha may thuy dien nhd, nang lygng mdi va nang lugng tai tao phai dugc phat trien d nhiing vung ddi nui, nang lugng dien phai dugc trao ddi vdi cac nydc trong khu vyc. Cung cap dien qud'c gia phai dugc dam bao va phat trien ben vung. Giai doan chuan bj thiet ke nha may dien hat nhan phai dugc hoan thanh.
520
300
729
100
P«,(MW) To may NMND San liTdng (MWh) 1.545 8.973 Nhiet dien than 2.832 4 x 1 10 - Pha Lai 1 4.198 2 x 3 00 - Pha Lai 2 (50 + 55) - Uong Bi 1x300 - U o n g B i M RI 4 x 25 - Ninh Binh
740
200
603
165
3
137
35
1
399
Nhting trung tam dieu phd'i dien d cac viing trong ca nude phai dugc phat trien phii hgp de dam bao do tin cay ciia cung cap dien dja phuong va giam tdn that edng sua't ky thuat cho toan he thdng va dam bao tinh kinh te cua san xuat va ddng gdp vao sy phat trien kinh te xa hdi eho moi viing va cho toan dat nude.
982
468
70
111
4
151
150
4
Sy phat trien eiia nhUng ngudn dien mdi phai dugc tinh de'n theo chieu sau va ddi mdi edng nghe d nha may dien de dam bao tieu chuan mdi trudng, sCl dung cdng nghe hien dai cho nhung nha may dien mdi...
Nhiet dien dau - Thu DCrc - Can Tho 18.880 3.248 Tuabin khi 1.902 8GT, 2ST - Ba Ria 5.843 4ST, 2ST -Phil My 2.1 7.992 1.138 3 G T 1 ST - Phu My 1 3,142 2GT, 1ST -Phu My 4 - Thu DCfc -Can Tho
24*KH&CNN - 89*09/2009
Bang 3. So gid van hanh cUa NMND (2002-2007)
Thu OLTC
2004 2005 2006 2007 2002 2003 NMND NMND dot than 6.437 6.676 5.002 5.628 5.168 5.861 Pha Lai 1 5.870 6.996 7191 2.252 5.337 7130 Pha Lai ii 6.613 7.206 6.962 6.095 6419 Uorg Bi 6.638 1.733 UongHMRI 6.810 6.315 7.292 7.942 6.830 Ninh Binh 5.490 NMND dot dau 4.224 4.921 2.306 3.424 3.654 2.858 J 5.347 5.848 6.242 3.945 Can Tho 3.878 4.161 hu trinh Tuabin khi(da J khi vac ion hop)
Dy bao nay la phuong an eg sd. Phuong an eao san xua't dien se la 215.817 ty kWh vao nSm 2015 va 489.621 ty kWh vao n§m 2025. Ke hoach phat trien nguon dien: Dd'i vdi phuong an eg sd, tdng cdng sua't dien se duge xay dyng them trong nam 2006 - 2015 ke ca dien nhap khau se la 75.679 MW trong dd 34.590 MW cho nha may nhiet dien dd't than; 12.376 MW cho nha may nhiet dien dot khi; 4.000 MW cho nha may nhiet dien hat nhan; 12.648 MW cho thuy dien, 4.800 MW cho nha may thuy dien tich nSng, 2.134 MW eho nha may thuy dien nlid va nha may nang lugng tai tao va 5.131 MW do nhap khau.
BaRia 5.669 r 5.358 5.402 5.470 5.401 ^4.970 Phu My 2.1 5.457 4.451 1.705 4.331 7.543 6.790
Phat trien he thdng dien:
PhUdng an cd ban cho nhung nam 2006 - 2025
se dugc xay dyng nhu sau:
135
599
510 329
269 941
258 726
- 8.921 km dudng day 500 kV, 13.761 km dudng day 220kV va 18.159 km dudng day llOkV.
5.221 6.499 5.748 5.835 Phu My 1 5.759 7.218 Phu My 4 6.221 3.456 6.842 6.858 1.584 Thu DCrc 1.208 Can Tho 1.024 1.005
Bang 4. Suat tieu thu nhien lieu
va ty IS dien
ti/dung
- Tram bien the 500kV ed cdng sua't 48.750 MVA, tram bien the 220kV cd cdng sua't 110.059 MVA va tram bien the llOkV cd cdng sua't 125.560 MVA.
- 256.560 km dUdng day trung ap va ha ap va
124.000 MVA tram phan phd'i dien.
438 344
Dau tu vd'n cho dien tU nam 2006 - 2025 la: 80 ty USD trong dd 52 ty USD eho ngudn cdng sua't va 28 ty USD cho he thdng tai dien. Trung binh moi nSm 4ty USD.
565
NMND Suat tieu thu nhien lieu (g/kWh; BTU/kWh) Tyle dien tudiing (%)' NMND dot than Pha Lai 1 9,25 Pha Lai 11 8,66 Uong Bi (standard coal) 561 11,47 UongBiMRI Ninh Binh 9,55
2. Phan cong nghiep than:
Tdng ngudn than tren pham vi toan qud'c da dugc khai thac - tham tra - danh gia tai thdi diem thang 1/2006, xin tham khao trong bang 5.
Tdng san lugng khai thac (mifc A + B + 01 + 02) CLia cac loai than tren toan qud'c dugc huy ddng cho ke hoach phat trien cdng nghiep than Viet Nam trong giai doan 2006-2025 la 3.695.447 ngan tan (tham khao bang 6).
Tdng cae loai than d Viet Nam vao khoang 3.625.966 ngan tan. San lugng than se dUOc khai thac la 46 trieu tan nam 2010, 46 - 50 trieu tan vao nam 2015, 57 - 63 trieu tan vao n§m 2020 va 59 - 66 trieu tan vao nSm 2025.
Dya tren djnh hudng ciia Tdng sd 56 VI, ke
Dinh hudng khai thac hpp ly va giam chi phi
hoach phat trien dien nhUsau.
khai thac than
Dd'i vdi khai thac than Id thien: cung vdi tang nang lyc mdt sd md than, edng nghiep than se md rdng pham vi ciia md than den eye dai.
NMND dot dau Thfl DiJc 5,83 - 5,98 Can Tho 271-248 277 5,52 Tuabin khi (dau, khi va chu trinh hon hop) BaRja 13.423 BTU/kWh; 318g/kWh GT 0,40 - 0,46; ST; 5,79 Phu My 2.1 11.792 BTU/kWh; 270g/kWh 1,48 (GT: 0,32-0,39; ST 3,74) 1,91 (GT: 0,38-0,64; Phli My 1 10.987 BTU/kWh; 272g/kWh ST 4,62) Phu My 4 11.575 BTU/kWh; 264g/kWh 1,70 (GT: 0,39-0,60; ST: 4,1) 320 g/kWh Thu DOc 0,45-0,51 294g/kWh Can Tho 0,29
San xuat nang lupng dien: de thoa man nhu cau ve cdng sua't eiia nen kinh te qud'c dan, san xua't nang lugng dien Viet Nam se la 190.047 ty kWh vao nam 2015 va 431.664 ty kWh vao nam 2025.
Dd'i vdi khai thac than ham Id: ciing vdi sU md rdng va tang cudng san lugng khai thac cdng
KH&CNN - 89*09/2009*25
Bang 5
Nguon than a|a chat theo muc tieu nbi niroic
tin liim
Total
A + B + C
A + B
Cl
C2 P
Tdng cua to^n qudc
6.164.848
4.992.222
370.609
2.157.236
2.464.377
1.172.626
100,00%
7,42%
43.21%
49,36%
VCing than Quang Ninh
4.049.559
3.464J16
315.155
1.41.399
1.768.161
564.843
Khai
Than biin
331.790
235.438
128.827
106.611
96.352
Vung n6i dja
165.109
165.109
55.454
91.901
17.755
Mo than dja phong
37.434
18.478
10.238
8.240
18.956
Vung Kho4i chau (diSn tich 80km^)
1.580.956
1.088.481
524.871
563.610
492.475
0 0 0 0
Tong c^c loai than
6.127.414
4.973.744
370.609
2.146.998
2.456.137
1.153.670
Than antraxit
4.118.349
3.553.506
327.765
1.439.825
1.785.916
564.843
Than bitum
1.580.956
1.088.481
524.871
563.610
492.475
tien
Than nSu
96.319
96.319
42.844
53.475
Than bun
331.790
235.438
128.827
106.611
96.352
0 0 0 0
nghiep than se day manli khao sat nhSng md mdi vdi tru lugng cao, ddng bd va cdng nghe hien dai va cd che khai thac than hieu qua. thac va phat trien nhOmg md than nhd dja phUdng: lap lai trat ty trong khai thac lya chgn he than va thdng de tang trOf lugng va xay dyng nhOmg yeu td mdi vdi trinh hien dai. Djnh
hudng
Tdng vung than Quang Ninh
4.049.559
3.484.716
315.155
1.401.399
1.768.161
564.843
9,04%
100,00%
40,22%
50,74%
740.417
713.791
Vung Hon Gai
37.620
229.689
446.582
26.626
ke hoach cung cap than cua mo than Viet Nam nhusau:
Vung U6ng Bi
1.346.279
1.252.578
17.309
444.107
791.163
93.701
1.518.347
Viing Cam Pha
1.962.863
727.604
260.326
530.417
444.516
Bang 6
Ten vung
Tai nguyen than dja chat duoc huy dong: 1.000 tan
n
Than ciia md than Mao Khe se cung cap chinh cho nha may nhiet dien Pha Lai va nha may nhiet dien Mao Khe.
2011-2015
2016-2020
2006-2010
Tdng
2021-2025
Sau 2025
3.695.447
285.357
Tdng tren toan qudc
473.347
391.376
547.024
1.998.344
2.826.620
269.247
Viing Thm Quang Ninh
390.101
36S.945
393.100
Vung Cam Pha
195.064
1.301.280
130.898
178.266
196.279
/ 1
1.405227 ioo.m
65.894
443.213
71.231
83.250
57.532
165.307
VUng Hdn Gai
129.143
1.082.127
107.428
67118
139.290
639.148
VOng U6ng Bl
2
22.432
16.109
83S4S
153.924
593.117
VCingNgidja
11.897
11.474
11.073
9.276
46.320
VCing than nOi dja
1.833
2.500
2.500
2.500
9.145
235.438
Than bun
3 // 1 2
1.212
11.667
17.222
194.327
5.000
18.478
Than dja phuong
Than cGa md than Vang Danh, Udng Bi, Yen Tif, Bao Dai va Dong Vdng se cung cap than cho nha may nhiet dien Udng Bi (ed the cho Hai Phdng), Phan lan van Dien, Khu edng nghiep Hoanh Bd va cho xua't khau.
57182
122.727
343.326
1.636
514.871
Vung Binh minh - Khoai chau
3 0 4
Bang 7. Tien trinh khai thac than theo phuo'ng an da dupe chinh ly den nam 2025 (TVN)
San li/Ong khai thac (nghin tan)
TT
Ten mo
2020
2030
2040
2050
2010
2015
Than cua md than Hdn Gai se cung cap than cho nha may nhiet dien Quang Ninh, Ninh Binh, Hai Phdng, Thai Binh, ViJng Ang va eho xua't khau.
51.850
44.815
42.315
38.700
41.340
49.015
Tdng cua toan ngiinh cong nghiep
15.700
26.205
20.200
18700
20.825
23.850
VUng Cam Pha
5.400
5.400
9.800
7.700
5.700
8.400
Vung Hbn Gai
12.480
12.000
12.000
12.000
10.100
12.900
Vung U6ng B(
5.465
5.600
6.915
6.215
2.465
2.150
Vung n6i dja
Than eiia md than Cam Pha se cung cap chinh cho nha may nhiet dien Quang Ninh, Cam Pha, Mdng Duong, Hai Phdng, nhOmg nha may nhiet dien khac va xua't khau.
nhiet dien tuong lai se xay dyng sau nam 2010 theo Id trinh.
Ngoai ra phai giai quye't van de nhap khau than cho nhOmg nha may nhiet dien mdi d mien Trung va d mien Nam.
Viing ndi dja se cung ca'p than chinh eho nha may nhiet dien Na Duong, Cao Ngan va nhOng nha may nhiet dien trong viing. Viing tam giac sdng Hdng se cung cap than cho nhOmg nha may
1 2 3 4
26*KH&CNN - 89*09/2009
Bang 10. San xuat va tieu thu
3. Cong nghiep dau mo a. Cung cap dau, cung cap khi va nhu cau
DVT: 1.000 tan
Nam
San xuat
J..
Tieu thu
San xuat/tieu thu (%)
Bang 8. San luang dau tho BVT: trieu tan
1998
San lirong
Nam
1999
170 202
1 140
0,6 69
1990
2000
1995
2001
323 404
268 298
2,7 7,7 8,8
1996
2002
83 74 67
1997
10,1
2003
1998
12,5
2004
347 363 366
1999
15,2
518 622 751 896
2005
343
58 49 38
16,3
2000
dau tho „, , San lygng dau thd khai thac duy tri d mUc tang trudng eao, dau thd khau xua't duoc ehl ra trong bang 8, tieu thy dau trong bang 9, ty le san xua't, tieu thu trong bang 10. San xua't va
2001
16,8
tieu thu khf:
2002
16,8
2003
17,7
2004
20,05
De an dudng d'ng dan khi se phat trien de cung cap khi cho nha may dien va cho hd gia dinh. Ke hoach chil dao ve he thdng sif dyng khi se phat trien d mien Nam va mien Bac Viet Nam;
Hien nay khi dang dugc khai thac khoang 7 ty ml
18,6
2005
Cdng nghe san xua't dau khf se dugc phat trien
Cho phat dien:
2006
17,3
de dam bao an ninh nhien lieu.
khoang 86%
Cho cdng nghiep
Sy phat trien eua nhiimg trung tam Igc dau se
Bang 9. Tieu thu dau
duge thye hien theo ke hoach.
cdng
Petro Viet Nam da xay dung cae nha may nhiet
phan bdn: 10% Cho. cac nghiep khac: 4%
dien ddt khi vdi ke hoach cdng sua't:
Nam
DVT: 1.000 tan Tieu thu dau cua ca nirdc
Ca M a u l: 750 MW
2001
8,139
Ca Mau 2: 750MW (3/2008)
2002
9,236
Nhon Trach 1: 450 MW (3/2008)
2003
9,950
Nhgn Trach 2: 750 MW (2009)
2004
10,447
De'n nay san lugng tdng dau khi dugc khai thac da dat 238 trieu tan tinh de'n ngay trong dd 31/12/2006 206,1 tan la dau va 32,4 ty m^ gas.
4. Ket luan
2005
10,774
Djnh hudng cho trinh phat
11,547
2006
chuong trien dau khise la:
San luang dau va khi se khai thac:
Ve CO ban cdng nghiep nang lugng Viet Nam da dap Ung ddi hdi ciia san xua't va hoat dpng xa hdi. An ninh nang lugng cung nhU dieu kien ty nhien va thi trudng nang lugng the gidi de'n nay edn chua hoan chinh. An ninh nang lugng dat dygc sy dam bao ban dau, nhung chiing ta phai ehu y tie'p theo.
2006 - 2010: 25 - 30 trieu TOE/nam trong dd dau thd ndi dja 18 - 19 trieu tan, khi 8 - 10 ty m^ va dau thd dugc khai thac d nydc ngoai la 0,2 - 1 ty tan.
Ngudn nang lugng phai dugc sif dung va khai
thac hgp ly va hieu qua hgn.
2011 - 2015: 31 - 34 trieu TOE/nam trong dd dau thd khai thac trong ndi dja la 16 - 18 trieu ta'n, khi la 11 - 15 ty ml va dau tho khai thac d nude ngoai la 1,2 - 3 trieu tan.
Nang lugng phai duge dam bao de cung cap du vdi chat lugng cao, gia thanh hgp ly cho sy phat trien kinh te xa hdi; thj trudng nang lUdng phai dygc hinh thanh chac chan d Viet Nam.
2016 - 2025: 34 - 35 trieu TOE/nam trong dd dau thd dugc khai thac trong ndi dia la 13 - 15 trieu tan, khi la 15 - 16 ty m^ va dau thd khai thac d nydc ngoai la 3,5 - 5,5 trieu tan.
Cdng nghiep nang lygng can thiet phai phat trien nhanh, hieu qua ben vOmg va bao ve mdi trudng.
(PV. Theo ban tieng Anh cua ThS. Le TuSn Phong 12/2008)
Tham dd dau khi tie'p tuc dygc khao sat va phat trien d nhOmg viing dau va khi mdi se dugc, khai thac.
