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NAM
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KINH
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TP.HCM
THUVI:¢N
LOICAMDOAN
Toi xin cam doan day
Ia
cong trlnh nghien ctfu ciia rieng toi. Cac
s61i<$u,
ke't
qua
neu
trong
lu~n
van la trung thl!c va chua tung
du'<;lc
ai
cong
b6
trong
bfft
ky cong
trlnh nfw khac.
Tac
gia
NGUYEN VAN
D~I
CAC TUVIETTAT
CCTM: Can
din
thu'dng
m~i
CCTT: Can can thanh toan
CPI: Chi
s6
gia tieu dung
GDP: Thu
nh~p
qu6c n()i
NHNN: N
gan hang Nha nude
NHTM: Ngan hang
thu'cJng
m~i
NHTW: N gan hang Trung u'dng
REER: Ty gia
hit$u
qua thlfc te'
TCTD:
T6
chuc tin dvng
TGHB: Ty gia
hfJi
doai
XHCN:
Xa
H()i
Chu Nghia
XNK: Xua't
nh~p
khffu
MUCLUC
. .
Trang
' ? ;::
LOIMOBAU
............................................................................................................ .
?
""A~?,
K,
Chu'dng 1:
CO
SO
L Y LU;;.N VB
TY
GIA
HOI
f>OAI.. ................................................ 1
1 1 M
"t
"'kh
".
. " li" d"' h"'' d
".
'
TGHn
1
• , Q so
a1
mttm en quan
en
01
oat va
.u
...................................
..
1.1.1, H6i doai va TGHB ............................................................................... 1
1.1.2, Ph an
lo~i
TGHB ................................................................................... 2
1.1.3, Stf hlnh thanh va phat
tri~n
cac che'
d()
ty gia tren the' gidi.. ................ 3
1.1.3.1, Che'
d()
ban vi vang ...................................................................... 3
1.1.3.2, Che'
d()
nhi€u
tY
gia ...................................................................... 4
1.1.3.3,
Ht;
th6ng Bretton Woods 1946-1971 ..........................................
.4
1.1.3 .4,
Ht;
th6ng
h~u
Bretton Woods ...................................................... 5
1.2, Cac nhan t6 anh hu'dng de'n TGHB ............................................................... 5
1.2.1, Can can thanh to an qu6c
te"
.................................................................. 6
1.2.1.1, Tai khoan vang lai ....................................................................... 6
1.2.1.2, Tai khoan v6n .............................................................................. 6
1.2.1.3, Tai khoan dl! trii' chinh thuc ......................................................... 7
1.2.2, Sue mua cua d6ng ti€n va chinh sach vi mo cua n€n kinh te' ............... 7
1.2.2.1, Sue mua cua d6ng ti€n ................................................................. 7
1.2.2.2, Tac d()ng cua
l~m
phat.. ............................................................... 8
1.2.2.3, Tac
d()ng
cua lai sua't ................................................................... 9
1.2.2.4, Chinh sach
ngo~i
h6i ................................................................. 10
1 2 2 5 M
"t
"'
h"
h " h -
"'
. " t'"'
11
• • • , Q so c
1n
sac
v1
mo gtan
1ep
...........................................
..
1.2.3, Ye'u t6 ky
VQng
...................................................................................
11
1.3,
A.nh
hu'CJng
CUa
bie'n dQng ty ghi
do'i
vdi
n~n
kinh te'
va
nhfi'ng
bi~n
phap
Cd
b?
h'
...
?•
12
an
p
ong
ngua
ru1
ro .................................................................................... .
131
R
hh•<~J:
? t?
.,
d"'"
A"
.::.
ki
ht"'
13
. . ,
.l"\.n
uvng
CUa
y gta
01
Vvl
nen
· n e ......................................... .
1.3.1.1,
A.nh
hu'CJng
cua
ty
gia
de'n
XNK
..................................................
13
1.3.1.2,
A.nh
hu'CJng
cua
ty
gia
de'n
can
din
thanh
toan
quo'c te' ..............
15
1.3.1.3,
A.nh
hu'CJng
cua
ty
gia
de'n thu
nh~p
binh
quan
.......................... 16
1314
N
hh•<~J:
? t?
.,
d"'
d.::.
tu'
•<~A
,.
17
. . . ,
.l"\.n
uvng
cua
y
g1a
en
au
n
uvC
ngoa1 ........................... .
1.3.2, Nhii'ng
bi~n
phap
cd
band~
phong
ngua
rui
ro
do bie'n d9ng ty gia
..
18
1.3.2.1,
Ch<;>n
che' d9
ty
gia
.....................................................................
18
1.3.2.2,
Ch<;>n
d6ng
ti~n
thanh
tmin ......................................................... 19
(
1.3.2.3,
Xac
dinh ty
gia
thich
h<Jp
...........................................................
19
1.3.2.4, Dlf
bao
bie'n
d9ng
ty gia .............................................................
19
1.3.2.5, Phong
ngua
rui
ro
thong
qua
cac
cong
Cl;l
phai
sinh tren
thi
tru'Cing
tai
chinh ....................................................................................... 20
1.4, Kinh
nghi~m
rut
ra
tu
cac
nttdc trong
phong
ngua
rui
ro
v~
ty gia ............. 20
1.4.1,
Cu9c
khung
hoang
tai
chinh
C1
Me-hy-co
1994 .................................. 20
1.4.1.1,
Tom
tiit
di~n
bie'n ...................................................................... 20
1.4.1.2,
Nguyen
nhan
cua
CUQC
khung
hoang
.........................................
21
1.4.2,
Cu9c
khung
hoang
tai
chinh
C1
chau
.A
................................................
22
1.4.2.1,
Tom
tiit
di€n bie'n ...................................................................... 22
1.4.2.2,
MQt
so'
nguyen
nhan
cua
CUQC
khung
hoang
..............................
23
1.4.3,
Bai
h<;>c
kinh
nghi~m
cho
Vi~t
N
am
................................................... 24
?(,.!
,.tA?
',.t,
'1
A
CHU'dNG
2:
DIEN BIEN CHE
E>Q
TY
GIA HOI
E>OAI
CUA
V~T
NAM ..................... 27
2.1,
ThCii
ky
tru'dc 1989 ...................................................................................... 27
