Nghiên cứu doanh thu thuế tại các quốc gia châu Á: tác động của tài chính toàn diện

In the contemporary global economic landscape, tax revenue plays a pivotal role in governmental capacity to redistribute wealth, foster economic growth, and finance essential public goods and services. Recent trends indicate a concerning decline in global tax revenues, particularly exacerbated by economic downturns, underscoring the urgent need for effective fiscal strategies. Simultaneously, financial inclusion has gained significant attention for its potential to influence national economies. However, the exact nature of this relationship, especially its non-linear dynamics and the presence of critical thresholds in its impact on tax revenue, remains underexplored, particularly within the diverse economic contexts of Asian developing countries. This study addresses this critical gap by investigating the multi-faceted impacts of financial inclusion on tax revenue in Asian nations, providing a nuanced understanding essential for robust policymaking.

Policymakers, government officials, economists, financial researchers, and academics interested in public finance, financial development, and economic policy in Asian countries.

This academic paper meticulously examines the intricate relationship between financial inclusion and tax revenue across 22 Asian countries from 2005 to 2022, employing a robust threshold regression model to uncover non-linear effects. The core finding reveals a distinct threshold effect: financial inclusion significantly boosts tax revenue in countries where financial inclusion is undeveloped (FI < -0.1221). Conversely, the study demonstrates that as financial inclusion becomes overdeveloped (FI between 0.1221 and 7.1408), it begins to exert a negative impact on tax revenue. This adverse effect becomes even more pronounced in countries with extremely high financial inclusion levels (FI > 7.1408). Beyond financial inclusion, the research identifies other macroeconomic factors influencing tax revenue; specifically, population growth rate and the proportion of the industrial sector are found to reduce tax revenue, while inflation rate, urbanization rate, and trade openness positively contribute to tax revenue improvement. Interestingly, GDP per capita and the agricultural sector's proportion show no statistically significant impact. These findings offer invaluable insights for policymakers, economists, and financial institutions in Asia, including Vietnam. They highlight the necessity of a tailored approach to financial inclusion strategies, recognizing that its benefits to tax revenue are not uniform across all stages of development. The study advocates for policies that strategically promote financial inclusion in early stages to enhance tax revenue, while also urging caution and potentially requiring compensatory fiscal adjustments in economies where financial inclusion is highly advanced to mitigate potential negative impacts on government revenue.