Assessing the level of vulnerability due to climate change to natural resources and environment in difficult coastal communes of Quang Binh province, Vietnam

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Assessing the level of vulnerability due to climate change to natural resources and environment in difficult coastal communes of Quang Binh province, Vietnam including the contents of introduction, research methods, results and discuss, conclusion.

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Nội dung Text: Assessing the level of vulnerability due to climate change to natural resources and environment in difficult coastal communes of Quang Binh province, Vietnam

Assessing the level of vulnerability due to climate change to natural resources and environment in difficult coastal communes of Quang Binh province, Vietnam Nguyen Hoang Son1, Dao Dinh Cham2,3, Le Van Tin1, Le Phuc Chi Lang1, Nguyen Trong Quan1, Le Anh Toai1 1 University of Education, Hue University, 34 Le Loi street, Hue City, ThuaThien Hue Province, Vietnam 2 Institute of Geography, Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology, 18 Hoang Quoc Viet street, Nghia Do Ward, Cau Giay District, Hanoi City, Vietnam 3 Graduate University of Science and Technology, Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology, 18 Hoang Quoc Viet street, Nghia Do Ward, Cau Giay District, Hanoi City, Vietnam ABSTRACT According to the annual assessment of the countries most severely affected by extreme weather events from 1997- 2016, Vietnam ranked 5th on the Global Climate Risk Index 2018 and 8th Long-term climate risk index (CRI). 2017 is considered to be a record year of natural disasters in Vietnam, with more than 16 typhoons and historic floods. Especially, the average temperature in the North and North Central Vietnam is 0.5-1.0°C higher than the average temperature of the past 30 years. In particular, the natural resources and environment of coastal communes in general and Quang Binh, in particular, are facing the risk of being strongly affected by changes in temperature, rainfall and sea level and extreme weather phenomena. Through the application of GIS and remote sensing technology to assess the level of vulnerability caused by climate change to natural resources and the coastal environment. The paper has identified a set of evaluation indicators, including Sensitivity (traffic accessibility index); impacts of residential areas; effects of industrial zones; a degree of dependence of the community), Exposure index (sea-level rise until 2100; temperature change to 2100), Adaptive capacity index (slope index; morphology). From there, sum up so the vulnerability index to the impacts of climate change on natural resources and the environment in difficult coastal communes of Quang Binh province (Vulnerability to climate change). Keywords: Quang Binh Province, climate change, the level of vulnerability, difficult coastal communes, natural resources and the environment. I. INTRODUCTION issues such as increase of erosion, flooding, loss of According to a report of the Intergovernmental Panel wetlands, pollution and increase of indiscriminate on Climate Change, global average temperature and sea exploitation of land and coastal water sources. The level have increased quickly over the last 100 years, coastal communes in Quang Binh province include 12 especially in the last 25 years. In Vietnam, during the communes of Quang Trach, Bo Trach, Quang Ninh, Le past 50 years, the average temperature has increased by Thuy districts and Ba Don town. This area having rich 0.5 - 0.7oC, the sea level has risen about 20 cm. El Nino and diverse resources allow the development of many and La Nina phenomenons are increasingly severely important economic sectors such as transportation - impacting. Climate change has made natural disasters, ports, tourism - services, industry, mining, agriculture, especially typhoons, floods and droughts more severely. forestry and fisheries .... It is also a densely populated Due to negative effects of climate change, it is necessary area, with a fast urbanization rate that increases the to have assessments of the vulnerability of natural mechanical population, develops infrastructure and resources and the coastal environment. increases pressure on natural resources and environment Coastal areas play an important part in the socio- in the area. Therefore, assessing the level of economic development of the country because of their vulnerability caused by climate change to natural rare resources. It not only provides biological and non- resources and the environment in coastal communes in biological resources for human activities but also Quang Binh province is the foundation for having functions to regulate the natural as well as artificial immediate and long-term solutions consistent with the environment. People use the resources for life, for locality in a sustainable development strategy. economic activities and for the needs of recreation and entertainment. The process of industrialization, trade development and continuous population growth in many places put great pressure on coastal areas with negative 212
II. RESEARCH METHODS C1. Identify the indicators in the evaluation Variables in vulnerability assessment are determined A. Method of collecting, analyzing, synthesizing based on the impacts of climate change factors on documents natural resources, the environment and the socio- In this research, we use the inheritance method to economy. Main indicators are based on the theoretical collect the necessary research results and related most views of the IPCC and applied by many scientists in the closely to the research content. Based on several evaluation. Variables are evaluated directly or indirectly. project's products on environmental and resource Thereby, determining the variables to use in the assessment in Quang Binh province, we conducted to evaluation as follows: analyze and select inherited data from all data of coastal coastal communes (including area, type of land use, Table 1. Sensitive index variables used in evaluation types of land resources, current status of land degradation, current status of environmental quality). TT Main index Sub index Meaning Source Information collected from the interview activities in This index the questionnaire is saved and analyzed via Excel. The indicates that the data was analyzed in the form of frequency according to closer to the road the descriptive statistics, combined with crosstab to that the Traffic consider the relationship between the extent of agricultural Space access production analysis vulnerability caused by climate change on natural index activities are, the resources and environment in coastal communes in more sensitive and Quang Binh province. vulnerable they will be. B. Methods of investigation and fieldwork This index indicates that the Methods of investigation and fieldwork by line and closer to feature points to supplement documents and check Impacts of residential areas Space research results. The results will complement the picture residential that agricultural analysis ares activities are, the of the current situation of exploitation and use of natural more sensitive and resources and the environment in coastal communes in vulnerable they Quang Binh province, as well as information data to will be. propose solutions to adapt to climate change in coastal 1 Sensitivity This index communes in Quang Binh province. index indicates that the closer to industrial zone that C. Methods of assessing the vulnerability of natural Impacts of agricultural Space industrial resources and the environment of coastal coastal zones production analysis communes activities are, the more sensitive and According to the IPCC, vulnerability is defined as vulnerable they the degree that a system is vulnerable or unable to cope will be. with the negative impacts of climate change, including This indicates the regulatory changes and extremes of the climate. level of livelihood dependence on Vulnerability is a function of the characteristics, agricultural intensity and extent of climate fluctuations to a system, Dependenc production (Index Statistics its sensitivity and adaptability. This definition is further e level of - General is determined from the Statistics clarified by Metzger and it consists of three community the number of Office components: Exposure, Sensitivity and Adaptive agricultural, Capacity, which are expressed as by the formula: V = f forestry and fishery / total (E, S, AC) [3]. population) In which, - Sea level rise Determine scenario to 2050 the level of - Exposure (E) can be understood as direct hazards (based on climate impacts of (e.g. pressure), the nature and extent of changes in change scenario of Sea level sea level Ministry of rise to climatic fluctuations in an area (e.g. temperature, Sea level rise on Natural Resources 2100 rainfall, extreme weather events ...). agricultural rise to 2100 and Environment) production Temperatur - DEM elevation - Sensitivity (S) expressing social and environmental 2 e changes to activities model conditions may make the catastrophe worse or mitigate 2100 Determine Scenario of it. Sea level the level of temperature rise to 2100 impact of change to 2050 Temperat - Adaptive capacity (AC) demonstrates the ability to temperature (based on climate ure apply adaptive solutions to help prevent potential changes on change scenarios changes impacts. agricultural of the Ministry of to 2100 production Natural Resources Vulnerability = (Exposure, sensitivity, adaptive activities and Environment) capacity). 213
Determine - Sea level rise Xi : Weight of index (i=1; 2…n) scenario to 2050 the level of Example: weight of traffic access index (based on climate impacts of sea level change scenario of Sea level 3/(3+6+5+6)=0,15 Ministry of rise to rise on agricultural Natural Resources 2100 Table 2. Weight of indexes and Environment) production activities - DEM elevation TT Index Weight Result model The higher slope I Sensitivity Index 3 0,3 in agricultural Analysis 1 Traffic access index 3 0,15 Slope production of from areas is, the more DEM 2 Impact of residential areas 6 0,3 adaptable will be. 3 Impact of industrial parks 5 0,25 Analysis from the Dependence level of the 4 6 0,3 Adaptive Agricultural distributi community 3 Capacity on map (AC) production has a of II Exposure index 4 0,4 long and Shape fragmental ecosyste 5 Sea level rise to 2050 4 0,5 ms in the structure, which is 6 Temperature change to 2050 4 0,5 coastal less able to adapt area of III Adaptive capacity 3 0,3 to the core areas. Quang Tri 7 Slope 5 0,45 province 8 Shape 6 0,55 C2. Methods of standardized variables and synthesizing indicators D. Method of maps, remote sensing and geographic Variables put into use in the evaluation are built information system (GIS) differently. The input nature of GIS is multi-sources, Applying cartography, remote sensing techniques on multi-format, multi-scale. Therefore, besides the data the basis of aerial photographic images and satellite that must be normalized in terms of space (frame of images in different periods can assess the degree of reference, coordinate system ...), the data processed here changes in natural characteristics and agricultural must be standardized to the same quantity. Applying the production activities due to the impacts of climate calculation formula below to return the variable's index change. Using geographic information system (GIS) to to a value of 0 - 100 [3]. update meteorological and hydrological documents, information on natural environment changes on the For variations as low as possible, apply equation (1) surface, storage of database systems, parts of maps for normalization helping for research, proposing solutions to solve and adapt to climate change and update documents conveniently and quickly in coastal communes in Quang Binh province. For variations as high as possible, apply equation (2) for normalization During the research, remote sensing map method and geographic information system were applied throughout, with the support of MapInfo 15 and ArcGIS 10.2 software to edit all assessments of vulnerability of Apply the calculation formula to the variables as natural resources and environment in coastal coastal follows: communes in Quang Binh province. + (1) applies to variables: Level of community E. Expert method: dependence; Sea level rise until 2050; Change temperature to 2050; Form. Through some conferences, in order to get opinions from domestic and foreign experts on approaching, + (2) applies to variables: Traffic access index; designing and conductig research, proposing solutions to Influence of residential areas; Influence of industrial adapt to climate change in coastal communes in Quang zones; The slope [3]. Binh province. C3. Methods for determining weights and calculating vulnerability values a. The method of determining weights Evaluate weights according to experts’ opinions. The result of weight is determined by the formula [3]: In which: 214
III. RESULTS AND DISCUSS - Dependence level of the community: The criterias of agriculture, forestry and fishery labor show the A. Overview of the research area dependence on the affected field, the number of laborers/ total population of localities reflects the economic dependence that locality to the agricultural sector. The ratio of agriculture, forestry and fishery/total population is determined based on survey data of the General Statistics Office in each commune. The lower the rate is, the greater the level of community dependence on agricultural production, the more sensitive and vulnerable it will be Figure 1. Location of the research area The coastal communes in Quang Binh province have an area of 22,416.81ha, accounting for 2.78% of the province's natural area, including 12 communes of communes and towns such as Ba Don town (Quang Minh and Quang Van, Quang Son, Quang Trung communes), Quang Trach district (Phu Hoa and Quang Dong communes), Bo Trach district (My Trach commune), Quang Ninh district (Hien Ninh, Duy Ninh and Hai Ninh communes), Le Thuy district (Hung Thuy, Hong Thuy communes) [2]. B. Assessments of the vulnerability of natural resources and the coastal environment in coastal communes in Quang Binh province B1. Variables of sensitivity index (Sensitivity) Sensitivity index shows the sensitivity of natural Figure 2. Sensitive index map (S) in assessing the resources, environment, socio-economic situation to the vulnerability of climate change to natural resources and given criteria. The higher the index of the area is, the environment in coastal communes in Quang Binh more serious the negative impact on natural resources province is, the environment, and the socio-economic situation. Table 3. Sensitivity index (S) in assessing the - Traffic access index: Sensitive index of vulnerability of climate change to natural resources and agricultural production activities and roads is built from environment in coastal communes in Quang Binh the separation of traffic road information of topographic province according to commune maps. Calculating the distance with the maximum value Very Very District Commune Low Average High low high of 10km, the meaning of this index indicates that the Phu Hoa 0 0 264,5 80,9 0 closer to the road that the agricultural production Quang Quang Dong 0 0 89,5 911,0 809,2 activities are, the more sensitive and vulnerable they Trach Sum 0 0 354,0 991,9 809,2 will be. - Impacts of residential areas: The sensitivity index Quang Minh 74,7 517,2 1.069,2 202,0 0 of agricultural production activities and residential Quang Son 2.657,0 1.532,1 983,2 298,2 0 areas is built from the separation of population and Ba Don Quang 0 2,0 633,4 0 0 town Trung urban information layers of the current state of land Quang Van 115,5 365,0 0 0 0 cover map, and then calculate the distance with the Sum 2.847,1 2.416,3 2.685,8 500,2 0 maximum value of 15km, the meaning of this index indicates that the closer to residential areas that Bo My Trach 0 132,3 782,6 30,7 0 Trach Sum 0 132,3 782,6 30,7 0 agricultural activities are, the more sensitive and vulnerable they will be. Duy Ninh 0 0 130,2 628,5 29,7 - Impacts of industrial zones: The sensitivity index Quang Hai Ninh 383,3 2.045,9 1.419,3 3,9 0 of agricultural production activities and industrial zones Ninh Hien Ninh 0 97,3 912,2 232,4 0 is built from the separation of information on the Sum 383,3 2.143,2 2.461,7 864,8 29,7 current status of industrial zones of the current land use Hung Thuy 0 455,0 1.225,4 438,3 0 map. Calculating the distance with the maximum value Le Thuy Hong Thuy 0 670,9 1.136,4 1.048,8 9,2 of 25km, the meaning of this index indicates that the Sum 0 1.125,9 2.361,8 1.487,1 9,2 closer to industrial zone that agricultural production Sum 3.230,4 5.817,7 8.645,9 3.874,7 848,1 activities are, the more sensitive and vulnerable they will be. 215
B2. Exposure variables (E) Sea level rise and temperature change and rainfall are main indexes of climate change. The IPCC organization has demonstrated that temperature increase lead to sea level rise. Therefore, two main indexes are applied to evaluate vulnerability. The use of a low medium emission scenario (RCP 4.5) in 2100 caculates and assess vulnerability. - Sea level rise to 2100: Sea level rise index is based on the climate change scenario developed and published by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment in 2016. The data of average sea level rise according to the scenario RCP 4.5 calculated by 2100 is 53 cm for the Quang Binh area. Combined with the DEM elevation numerical model, it is possible to determine which areas will flood till 2100 [1]. Table 4. Sea level rise according to the scenarios from Deo Ngang - Deo Hai Van The periods of time of the 21st century Figure 3. Exposure index map (E) in assessing the Scenarios vulnerability of climate change to natural resources and 2040 2060 2080 2100 the environment in coastal communes in Quang Binh RCP2.6 17 26 35 44 province (11 ÷ 25) (16 ÷ 38) (22 ÷ 51) (28 ÷ 65) Table 7. Exposure index (E) in assessing the RCP4.5 17 28 40 53 vulnerability of climate change to natural resources and (11 ÷ 24) (17 ÷ 39) (24 ÷ 56) (32 ÷ 75) RCP6.0 17 27 40 55 environment in coastal communes in Quang Binh (11 ÷ 24) (18 ÷ 39) (27 ÷ 58) (37 ÷ 80) province according to commune RCP8.5 19 33 50 72 Very Very District Commune Low Average High (13 ÷ 26) (22 ÷ 46) (34 ÷ 71) (49 ÷ 102) low high - Temperature changes to 2100: In 2100, Phu Hoa 28,2 6,1 117,6 160 34,0 Quang according to RCP 4.5 scenario in Quang Binh province, Quang Dong 1604,1 84,3 77,4 37,7 4,5 Trach the temperature increase at different locations of the Sum 1632,2 90,4 195,0 197,7 38,4 area, it could be from 1.3 to 2.7 0C; the most common Quang Minh 1252,3 136,5 270 198,5 7,6 increase is 1.90C. Quang Son 5053,7 306,7 96,2 19,2 0 Table 5. Change of annual temperature (0C) Ba Don Quang Trung 47,1 35,0 402,3 139,2 12,3 town compared to the baseline period in Quang Binh Quang Van 0 0 6,6 348,3 126,1 province (Values in parentheses are ranges around the Sum 6353,1 478,2 775,2 705,1 146,0 average with less than 10% and above 90%) [1] My Trach 425,7 173,6 210,1 87,0 50,2 RCP4.5 RCP8.5 Bo Trach Sum 425,7 173,6 210,1 87,0 50,2 2016- 2046- 2080- 2016- 2046- 2080- 2035 2065 2099 2035 2065 2099 Duy Ninh 0 55,9 277,4 377,7 78,2 0,7 1,4 1,9 0,8 1,9 3,3 Quang Hai Ninh 3626,0 91,4 57,7 58,1 4,5 (0,4÷1,1) (0,9÷2,0) (1,3÷2,7) (0,6÷1,2) (1,3÷2,6) (2,6÷4,5) Ninh Hien Ninh 592,6 137,4 258,8 213,9 40,4 - Rainfall changes to 2100: In 2100, according to Sum 4218,6 284,8 593,9 649,6 123,1 RCP 4.5 scenario in Quang Binh province, the rainfall Hung Thuy 1934,6 116,0 38,0 32,2 0 increase at different locations of the region could be Le Thuy Hong Thuy 1447,8 36,0 54,9 300,1 1029,4 from 15.4 to 38.1%; the most common increase is Sum 3382,4 152,0 92,9 332,3 1029,4 26.2%. Sum 16011,9 1179,0 1867,1 1971,7 1387,1 Table 6. Variation of annual rainfall (%) compared B3. Variables of the adaptive capacity index (AC) to the baseline period in Quang Binh province (Values (Adaptive capacity) in parentheses are ranges around the average with less - Slope: The slope index is built from a DEM height than 10% and above 90%) [1] model, the meaning of this index is that the lower slope RCP4.5 RCP8.5 2016-2035 2046-2065 2080-2099 2016-2035 2046-2065 2080-2099 areas that agricultural production activities are, the higher the adaptive capacity will be. 17,0 22,5 26,2 16,5 18,6 21,2 - Shape: Biodiversity index means that the higher (10,4÷23,6) (10,7÷34,3) (15,4÷38,1) (9,0÷23,3) (12,9÷23,9) (13,8÷28,2) the biodiversity index area, the better the ability to adapt 216
AC: the adaptive capacity should be as high as possible. Figure 4. Adaptive index map (AC) in assessing the vulnerability of climate change to natural resources and environment in coastal communes in Quang Binh Figure 5. Vulnerability index map (V) in assessing the province vulnerability of climate change to natural resources and the environment in coastal coastal communes in Quang Table 8. Adaptability index (AC) in assessing the Binh province vulnerability of climate change to natural resources and environment in coastal communes in Quang Binh Table 9. Vulnerability index (V) in assessing the level province according to commune of vulnerability caused by climate change to natural Very Very resources and environment in coastal communes in District Commune Low Average High low high Quang Binh province according to commune Phu Hoa 79,1 0 0 0 249,2 Quang Quang Dong 784,8 0 25,8 331,5 668,5 Very Very Trach District Commune Low Average High Sum 863,9 0 25,8 331,5 917,7 low high Quang Minh 1392,3 0 0 275,8 209,4 Phu Hoa 0,0 22,4 66,6 250,3 4,3 Quang Quang Son 2882,1 148,2 869,3 1609,0 10,9 Quang Dong 0,0 814,1 572,0 501,2 1,2 Trach Ba Don Sum 0,0 836,5 638,6 751,5 5,5 Quang Trung 469,3 0 0 0 154,9 town Quang Van 193,9 0 0 0 285,5 Quang Minh 511,7 816,4 464,2 172,0 0,0 Sum 4937,6 148,2 869,3 1884,8 660,7 Quang Son 2308,6 3015,0 446,3 4,3 0,0 Ba Don My Trach 298,4 0 0 50,6 616,1 Quang Trung 0,0 391,0 112,3 149,6 0,0 Bo Trach town Sum 298,4 0 0 50,6 616,1 Quang Van 0,0 166,8 111,9 222,8 0,0 Duy Ninh 98,9 0 0 0 684,8 Sum 2820,3 4389,2 1134,8 548,8 0,0 Quang Hai Ninh 30,7 0 0 1421,4 2401,2 Bo My Trach 0,0 285,9 423,5 300,2 1009,7 Ninh Hien Ninh 504,1 0 4,2 99,0 589,1 Trach Sum 0,0 285,9 423,5 300,2 1009,7 Sum 633,7 0 4,2 1520,3 3675,2 Duy Ninh 0,0 79,1 41,2 604,6 94,9 Hung Thuy 222,7 0 0 818,4 1054,6 Quang Hai Ninh 32,1 989,4 2941,0 48,9 0,0 Le Thuy Hong Thuy 108,7 0 0 748,7 2025,8 Ninh Hien Ninh 95,2 359,5 324,8 470,4 1,8 Sum 331,5 0 0 1567,0 3080,4 Sum 127,3 1428,0 3307,0 1123,9 96,7 Sum 6766,6 148,2 899,3 5354,3 8950,1 Hung Thuy 0,0 459,3 1693,6 39,6 0,0 Le B4. Vulnerability index (V) Hong Thuy 0,0 127,5 1577,7 1117,8 193,3 Thuy Formula for calculating vulnerability index [5]: Sum 0,0 586,7 3271,4 1157,4 193,3 Sum 2947,6 7526,4 8775,3 3881,8 1305,1 The results of assessing the vulnerability of climate change to natural resources and the environment in coastal communes in Quang Binh province show that: In which: IAC = 100 – AC there are 1,305.1 ha, accounting for 5.8% of the area of S: the higher sentivity is, the higher vulnerability coastal communes in Quang Binh province are at very will be (S should be as low as possible) high risk of vulnerability; The high level of injury has E: the higher exposure is, the stronger level of an area of 3,881.8 ha, making up 17.3%; The average impact will be (E should be as low as possible) level of injury accounts for 8,775.3 ha, accounting for 39.2%. The low level of damage has an area of 7,526.4 217
ha, making up 33.6% and the level of very low damage of average vulnerability; 7,526.35 ha of a low has an area of 2,947.6 ha, equivalent to 13.2%. Thus, vulnerability; 2,947.58ha of a very low level of the area with high vulnerability level accounts for damage. In particular, Bo Trach district has the highest 23.1% of the total area of the study area. In particular, level of vulnerability, occupying the highest rate of the level of vulnerability is very high: Bo Trach district 1,009.65 ha. has the highest rate of 71.3%, the second position is Le Thuy district with 13.6% (the commune with the REFERENCES highest proportion is My Trach commune and Bo Trach [1] Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (2016). Scenario of climate change and sea level rise for Vietnam. Ha Noi: district with 71.3%), the high level of injury: Le Thuy Environment - Resources Publisher and Viet nam map district accounts for the highest rate of 27.5%, the [2] Quang Binh Statistical Office (2017). Quang Binh Statistical second position Quang Ninh district with 26.7% (the Yearbook in 2017. Quang Binh: Statistical publishing hourse. highest proportion is Hong Thuy commune, Le Thuy district accounts for 26.5%). [3] IPCC (2007). Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth IV. CONCLUSION Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate With the severe impacts of climate change on all Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der sectors and fields in Vietnam, the natural resources and Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 976pp. environment of coastal communes in Quang Binh province are at risk among the most affected groups. By [4] World Wide Fund For Nature (WWF) (2013). Assessing the level of vulnerability to climate change of ecosystems in Vietnam. applying the method of assessing the vulnerability of WWF - Vietnam. climate change to natural resources and the [5] Worldbank (2010). Economics of adaptation to climate change in environment in coastal communes in Quang Binh Vietnam’s aquaculture sector. Available online: province, a set of evaluation indexes and establishment http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/563491468149078334 have been identified and built maps, including /Vietnam-Economics-of-adaptation-to-climate-change (Last accessed on 25 March 2019) sensitivity index, exposure index, adaptive index. The results showed that 1,305.08 ha, accounting for 5.82% of the area with very high vulnerability to injury; 3,881,80 ha of a high level of vulnerability; 8,775.29 ha 218 View publication stats