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Ch 4 Qualitative Forecasting
Using expert opinion and collective
experience to unlock the secrets of
the future.
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The keys to employing qualitative
forecasting are:
♦Data as an historical
series is not available,or
is not relevant to future
needs.
♦
An unusual product or a
unique project is being
contemplated.
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Keys:-
♦There are numerous variables
which will affect the project.
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Keys:
Sales by Year, With Automatic Twenty
Year Prediction
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Year
Sales
♦The project’s life is longer than the
safe extrapolation of a time series.
5
Keys:
♦Experts are available, and should
debate the issues.