DETERMINANTS OF BILATERAL EXPORT FLOWS IN THE WORLD ECONOMIC
INTEGRATION PROCESS, THE CASE OF VIETNAM
(1986-2010): A GRAVITY APPROACH
A thesis submitted in fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of
DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY
In Economics and Finance
Tung Tri Nguyen
Master of International and Development Economics
The Australian National University
School of Economics Finance and Marketing
College of Business
RMIT University
Feb 2015
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Declaration
I certify that except where due acknowledgment has been made, the work is that of the author
alone; the work has not been submitted previously, in whole or in part, to qualify for any
academic award; the content of the thesis is the result of work which has been carried out since
the official commencement data of the approved research program; any editorial work, paid or
unpaid, carried out by a third party is acknowledged; and, ethnic procedures and guidelines have
been followed.
Tung Tri Nguyen
February 25, 2015
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
This thesis is due to the helpful contributions from supervisors, academic staffs and
colleagues.
I am indebted to Associate Professor Dr Seema W.D. Narayan, the senior supervisor, for
her intensive supervision. I, indeed, appreciate her instruction, suggestions, comments, editing,
and care for every steps of this thesis. The thesis started with useful research questions and
appropriate motivation; however, it was in a difficult to select the best methodology to quantify
these questions. It was that Professor Dr. Seema W.D Narayan has directed me to the relevant
methodology amongst alternatives. Moreover, I have drwan such important things from her
supervision, in which the most important thing is her technique in doing a research.
I would also thank Dr. George Tawadros, the co-supervisor, for his suggestions on the
issue of methodology. Dr. George Tawadros is enthusiastic lecturer to provide feedbacks on the
progress of thesis writing.
I would have great thanks to staffs from the School of Economics, Finance, and
Marketing; and the School of Graduate Research for their supports during the whole period of
this thesis. The success in the milestones of this thesis has been attributed from useful
assessment, comments from Dr. Ashton de Silva, Associate Professor Dr. Heather Mitchell. In
addition, I especially thank Ms Prue Lamont, Ms Kalpana Lalji, Ms Esther Ng, Ms Claudia
Jorquera, and Mr Owen Shemansky for their supports and arrangements association with the
administrative procedures.
I was also having passion in doing the research that has been encouraged from colleagues
in School of Economics, Finance, and Marketing. I would thank to their shares in studying.
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ABBREVIATIONS
ADF
Augmented Dickey Fuller
AFTA
ASEAN Free Trade Area
APEC
Asian Pacific Economic Cooperation
ASEAN
Association of South East Asian Nations
ASEM
The Asian-Europe Meeting
BRS
Baltic Sea Region
BTA
Bilateral Trade Agreement
CEEC
Central and Eastern European Countries
CEFTA
Central European Free Trade Agreement
CEPII
French Research Center in International Economics
CEPT
Common Effective Preferential Tariff
CES
Constant Elasticity of Substitution
CIF
Cost Insurance - Shift
CIS
Commonwealth of Independent States
EU
European Union
FDI
Foreign Direct Investment
FOB
Free on Board
FTA
Free Trade Agreement
GDP
Gross Domestic Product
GSO
General Statistic Organization - Vietnam
IMF
International Monetary Fund
LSDV
Least Squares Dummy Variable
MED
Mediterranean Region
MERCOSUR
The sub-regional bloc including Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay,
Uruguay, and Venezuela
MFN
Most Favored Nation
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NAFTA
North American Free Trade Agreement
OECD
Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development
OLS
Ordinary Least Squares
PNTR
Permanent Normalization Trade Relationship
PPP
Purchasing Power Parity
SAARC
The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation
SITC
Standard International Trade Classification
TCI
Conformity Index of Trade
UN
United Nations
US
United States Of America
VAR
Vector Autoregressive Model
ECM
Error Correction Model
VJEPA
Vietnam - Japan Economic Partnership Agreement
VND
Vietnam Dong (Vietnamese currency)
WLS
Weighted Least Squares
WTO
World Trade Organization