B GIÁO DỤC VÀ ĐÀO TO NGÂN HÀNG NHÀ NƯỚC VIT NAM
TRƢỜNG ĐẠI HC NGÂN HÀNG TP. H CHÍ MINH
_________________________
PHM TH THÚY NGA
ẢNH HƢỞNG CỦA CƠ CẤU TÀI CHÍNH ĐẾN KH
NĂNG PHÁ SẢN CA CÁC DOANH NGHIP NIÊM YT
THUC NGÀNH BẤT ĐỘNG SN VIT NAM
KHÓA LUN TT NGHIP
CHUYÊN NGÀNH: TÀI CHÍNH-NGÂN HÀNG
MÃ S: 7340201
NGƯỜI HƯỚNG DN KHOA HC:
TS. PHAN NGC MINH
TP. H CHÍ MINH, NĂM 2018
i
ABSTRACT
The construction of bankruptcy forecasting models help corporations have a useful tool to
detect early warning signs of the risk of exhausting financial risks. Since then, there will
be measures to manage, supervise and timely prevention to avoid the worst situations can
occur, it is bankruptcy. In this study, the Z-score model of professor Edward Altman was
selected as a theoretical basis. Simultaneously, research methods which were used in this
study is a combination of traditional analytical method and Multiple Discriminant
Analysis method (MDA). The end result of this study is: building predictive models for
bankruptcy with a dependent variable and six independent variables. This model is
consistent with Vietnam 's economy in general and specifically for the construction real
estate corporations in Vietnam.
Key words: Exhausting finance, Bankruptcyforecasting model, Z-score model, the
construction real estate sector, Multiple Discriminant Analysis method (MDA).
1. The necessity of the topic
Identifying a key rational capital structure through the debt ratio is always a matter of
concern. Managers always aim for a balanced financial structure, thus ensuring the
solvency of the business while leveraging the efficiency of financial leverage while
increasing the efficiency of capital use and contributing to the increase enterprise value.
We are concerned about the financial structure of the business because when financial
imbalances occur, it often results in very negative consequences: the lender can stop
lending or interest rates rise, borrowers will demand immediate cash terms and customers
may leave the company for fear the company will not meet the promised product
standards, Stock prices are down without brakes. Therefore, the financial control of the
executives should be well implemented to ensure the company sustainable growth and
avoid falling into this unwanted situation.
ii
The real estate market is an important market. For industrialized countries, the real estate
market often accounts for about 30% of GDP. There are also a number of countries with
state budget revenues from land and real estate accounting for 50% - 70% of total
revenues. The establishment and development of this type of market has contributed
significantly to the socio-economic development of our country in the past because it is
an important component of the economy.
However, in the past time the real estate market was full of uncertainty, the price of
"dancing", fluctuating up and down, the "fever" turned into a "frozen" period, it closed
contributing to the "throbbing" of the financial market and causing instability of the
monetary market, especially limited ability to raise capital for businesses, affecting the
growth and development economy.
And in particular, our country - with an economy with a high rate of bankruptcy and
business dissolution, demanding a stable business environment to attract foreign
investment, tens of thousands the bankruptcy of businesses in the first two months of the
year has also affected investors' perceptions of the domestic business environment.
Based on this fact, the author directed this research project to determine the relationship
between financial structure and bankruptcy risk of real estate enterprises in Vietnam.
From there, an early warning to enterprises themselves as well as management agencies
have timely solutions to rescue the difficulty of the business as well as building a
sustainable economy.
2. Scientific significance and practicality of the topic
The completed model contribute to forming a powerful tool for investors before making
investment decisions. Avoid mistakes in assessing the ability to maintain the business. As
a result, making investment decisions is quicker, easier and more accurate.
For self-employed business, models for bankruptcy is a tool for identification, an early
warning sign for enterprises to make timely improvements to their operations. This will
help to avoid losses to the economy.
iii
For the bankruptcy watchdog management agency, it can be used to support the
consideration of enterprises that are in danger of bankruptcy in order to take timely
measures to monitor the bankruptcy. reasonable supervision mechanism ... Moreover, the
topic of completion will be the basis for further research on the model of bankruptcy
forecasting for each group of industries, or the entire Vietnamese market.
3. Scope and objects of research
Object of study:
-Financial structure of real estate companies on Vietnam's stock market.
- The risk of bankruptcy of real estate companies on the stock market of Vietnam.
Research scope:
- About time: the study used a set of 117 observations of 22 healthy companies and 65
observations of 15 companies that were going bankrupt or gone bankrupt in Vietnam. It
will focus on the 2013- 2017 period.
- Regarding space: The research paper is limited to companies listed on HOSE and HNX.
4. The model of the final research results is the Multiple Discriminant Analysis
method (MDA):
D = 3.515X1 + 1.083X2 + 6.272X3 + (- 0.003) X4 + (- 0.984) X5 + (- 1.470) X6
Then the critical value of D is in the range (-0.475; 0.892)
- If D ≥ 0.892: the company is in a safe area
- If -0.475 < D < 0.892: the company is in the warning area
- If D ≤ -0.475: the company is in a high risk of bankruptcy
X1, Working Capital/Total Assets (WC/TA)
X2, Retained Earnings/Total Assets (RE/TA)
X3, Earnings Before Interest and Taxes/Total Assets (EBIT/TA)
iv
X4, Market Value of Equity/Book Value of Total Liabilities (MVE/TL)
X5, Sales/Total Assets (S/TA)
X6, Equity / Total Capital (EB/TC)
The above model shows the relationship between dependent variable and independent
variable, will able to predict 70% correctly. The coefficients tell how much the dependent
variable increases (decreases) when one of the independent variables remains unchanged.