Using chi-square method to the accidents of cars in Albaha city and studying the reasons and how to solve this issues

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This research study the problem of increasing traffic accidents and their consequences on peoples’ life and properties for the periods 1434 to1438 A.H – statistical analysis specially chi square have been used to study the factors affecting the number of accidents in Albaha city.

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Nội dung Text: Using chi-square method to the accidents of cars in Albaha city and studying the reasons and how to solve this issues

International Journal of Management (IJM) Volume 9, Issue 5, Sep–Oct 2018, pp. 16–21, Article ID: IJM_09_05_003 Available online at http://www.iaeme.com/ijm/issues.asp?JType=IJM&VType=9&IType=5 Journal Impact Factor (2016): 8.1920 (Calculated by GISI) www.jifactor.com ISSN Print: 0976-6502 and ISSN Online: 0976-6510 © IAEME Publication USING CHI-SQUARE METHOD TO THE ACCIDENTS OF CARS IN ALBAHA CITY AND STUDYING THE REASONS AND HOW TO SOLVE THIS ISSUES Dr. Elrayah Mohammed Ishag Osman Department of MIS, College of Business Administration Dr. Najeeb AlMater ABSTRACT This research study the problem of increasing traffic accidents and their consequences on peoples’ life and properties for the periods 1434 to1438 A.H – statistical analysis specially chi square have been used to study the factors affecting the number of accidents in Albaha city. Data were collected from the traffic department in the region of study. Some data errors have been treated statistically. There are some independents factors such as mankind, vehicles, other variables Results show that ages group of people between 18-30 years committed more accidents and small cars cause more accidents than tracks as well as lack of attention of drivers while steering cars on Monday, Wednesday most the accidents happen during the day time and Saudi citizens are most frequently an accidents compared to foreigners. Educated and married are the most among others. Keywords: Chi-square method, Goodness of fit, Independent factors. Cite this Article: Dr. Elrayah Mohammed Ishag Osman and Dr. Najeeb AlMater, Using Chi-Square Method To The Accidents of Cars In Albaha City and Studying The Reasons and How To Solve This Issues, International Journal of Management, 9 (5), 2018, pp. 16–21. http://www.iaeme.com/ijm/issues.asp?JType=IJM&VType=9&IType=5 1. INTRODUCTION Statistics is considered as one of the tools in scientific research and statistical tools could be used to collect and analyze the data to draw conclusion. The increased number of accidents in Albaha Area motivate the researches to investigate the phenomena and the consequences of these accidents on properties. There are some research’s carried out previously on accidents and they have delt with statistical tools to analyse the data precisely. Therefore, chi-square test is more suitable for our analysis. http://www.iaeme.com/IJM/index.asp 16 editor@iaeme.com
Dr. Elrayah Mohammed Ishag Osman and Dr. Najeeb AlMater The main conclusion of this research support the decision makers in police departments in Saudi Arabia. 2. METHODOLOGY The data that were collected treated by the test of independence of goodness of fit by using chi- square test 2.1 The hypothesis A. There is a relationship between accidents and the age of drivers. B. There is a relationship between accidents and the weekdays. C. There is a relationship between accidents and vehicles. D. There is a relationship between accidents and the nationality. E. There is a relationship between accidents and the level of education. F. There is a relationship between accidents and the social satiation (marriage). 2.2. Test of independence This test used to know the significance of relationship between data that can be measured and hence chi-square test is used. There are two hypothesis null hypothesis and alternative hypothesis, then if level of significance is less than 0.05 we reject the null hypothesis and accept the alternative, that means there a relationship between the accident and the factor. If (A, B) are independent variables and if the null hypothesis (H0) then Pij = P(Ai Bj) = P(Ai) P(Bj) and then we expect Eij = nPij = n P(Ai) P(Bj) where P(Ai) = , P(Bj) = where Ri Cj are the observations so the observed variables in the cell AiBj in case of (H0) is correct then Eij= , = 1,2. . ∶ = 1,2, … Then if the differences (Eij-Oij) are small that gives support to (H0). Karl Pearson gives a function for that Chi Square = ∑ ∑ with degree of freedom ( r-1) (c-1) And then if chi-square is less than 0.05 that means is significant. Tables explain the observed value which the real data and expected value that calculated by the SPSS (between the brackets). 3. RESULTS 1. Most accidents are happened from people aged between (18-30) years. 2. Accidents takes place on Monday and Wednesday are more frequently. 3. Most accidents cost by light vehicles. 4. Traffic rules violations such as smoking, mobiles and high speed are the main causes at of accidents. 5. People who have valid licenses and light vehicles commit more accidents. 6. Accidents between vehicles are more than other accidents. http://www.iaeme.com/IJM/index.asp 17 editor@iaeme.com
Using Chi-Square Method To The Accidents of Cars In Albaha City and Studying The Reasons and How To Solve This Issues 7. Most accidents happened during the day time. 8. Most accidents happened on the centre of Albaha city. 9. 80% of accidents were committed by Saudians people. 10. 69% of accidents were committed by marriage people. 11. 99% of accidents were committed by educated people. 4. RECOMMENDATION 1. exert more effort to pave and maintain the available roads. 2. set up more lights. 3. more traffic signs are required. 4. assign specific parking area for vehicles and prohibit frequents stops. 5. increase awareness among suadians and foreigners following various campaign. 6. enforcement vehicle insurance license. 7. arrange periodical meetings between police department head quarter and vehicles drivers to identify the main traffic problems. 8. educate the traffic men and making sure that they have good attitudes towards drivers. 9. medical and physical check is one of the requirements for vehicle licenses final approval. 10. periodical and frequent check of the vehicles for safety of passengers. Tables The expected values between the two brackets and the observed values (real values) Table (1) Response goodness of fit between accidents and age of drivers Year 1434 1435 1436 1437 1438 Total Age 356 246 114 105 50 Less than 17 871 (164.4) (224.8) (218.2) (159.5) (74.1) 1462 2039 2047 1685 688 18-30 7921 (1494.7) (2044.8) (1984.8) (1723.3) (673.5) 881 1500 1477 1257 445 31-40 5560 (1049.1) (1455.3) (1393.2) (1209.6) (472.8) 285 414 448 445 168 41-50 1760 (332.1) (454.3) (441) (382.9) (149.6) 154 94 81 126 63 More than 50 518 (97.7) (133.7) (129.8) (112.7) (44) Total 3138 4293 4167 3618 1414 16630 Chi-square = 457, sig= 0.00 (which is less than 0.05) http://www.iaeme.com/IJM/index.asp 18 editor@iaeme.com
Dr. Elrayah Mohammed Ishag Osman and Dr. Najeeb AlMater Table (2) Response goodness of fit between accidents and weekdays Year 1434 1435 1436 1437 1438 Total Day 470 639 532 437 166 Saturday 2244 (439.7) (601.5) (583.8) (520.9) (198.1) 428 608 648 537 237 Sunday 2458 (461) (630.7) (612.2) (546.3) (207.7) 509 618 644 557 234 Monday 2562 (408.5) (657.4) (638.1) (569.4) (217.7) 449 657 615 552 190 Tuesday 2463 (462) (632) (613.5) (547.4) (208.2) 494 653 588 572 210 Wednesday 2517 (472.1) (645.5) (626.9) (559.4) (212.7) 418 625 652 571 220 Thursday 2486 (466.3) (637.9) (619.2) (552.2) (215.1) 370 493 488 392 157 Friday 1900 (356.6) (487.5) (473.2) (422.2) (160.6) Total 3138 4293 4167 3618 1414 16630 Chi-square = 257.48, sig= 0.002 (which is less than 0.05) Table (3) Response goodness of fit between accidents and kind of vehicle Year 1434 1435 1436 1437 1438 Total Vehicle 1598 2417 2132 1919 723 Small cars 8789 (1658.4) (2268.9) (2202.3) (1912.1) (743.3) 507 554 662 587 274 Jeep 2584 (487.6) (667.1) (647.5) (562.2) (219.7) 41 37 42 33 11 Hafila 164 (30.9) (42.3) (41.1) (35.7) (13.9) 686 1735 1149 509 345 wanait 4118 (777) (1795.5) (1031.9) (895.9) (350.1) 131 1033 126 113 36 Nagel 542 (102.3) (1063.1) (135.8) (117.9) (46.1) 113 73 10 24 6 Wayt 231 (43.6) (59.6) (57.9) (50.3) (19.6) 62 43 41 37 19 Others 202 (38.1) (52.1) (50.6) (43.9) (17.2) Total 3138 4293 4167 3618 1414 16630 Chi-square = 278.9, sig= 0.00 (which is less than 0.05) http://www.iaeme.com/IJM/index.asp 19 editor@iaeme.com
Using Chi-Square Method To The Accidents of Cars In Albaha City and Studying The Reasons and How To Solve This Issues Table (4) Response goodness of fit between accidents nationality Year 1434 1435 1436 1437 1438 Total Nationality 2387 3521 3388 2885 1172 Saudian 13353 (2519.6) (3447.1) (3345.1) (2905.1) (1135.4) 751 772 779 733 242 Other 3277 (618.4) (821.1) (821.1) (712.9) (278.6) Total 3138 4293 4167 3618 1414 16630 Chi-square = 52.8, sig= 0.00 (which is less than 0.05) Table (5) Response goodness of fit between accidents and level of education Year 1434 1435 1436 1437 1438 Total level of education 3032 4252 4144 3584 1395 Educated 16407 (3095.9) (4235.4) (4111.1) (3569.5) (1395) 106 41 23 34 19 Not educated 223 (142) (57.6) (55.9) (48.5) (19) Total 3138 4293 4167 3618 1414 16630 Chi-square = 127.2, sig= 0.00 (which is less than 0.05) Table (6) Response goodness of fit between accidents and social situation Year 1434 1435 1436 1437 1438 Total Social situation 2171 3154 2648 2499 962 marriage 11434 (2157.5) (2951.7) (2865) (2487.6) (972.2) 967 1139 1519 1119 452 Other 5196 (980.5) (1341.3) (1302) (1130.4) (441.8) Total 3138 4293 4167 3618 1414 16630 Chi-square = 97.7, sig= 0.00 (which is less than 0.05) ACKNOWLEDGMENT This research is a part of a project entitled using the chi-square methods to accidents of cars in Albaha City and studying the reasons and how to solve this issues this project was funded by the deanship of scientific research Albaha University KSA (grant no: 1438/43) the assistance of the deanship is gratefully acknowledged. REFERENCES [1] Ageli, M. and Zaidan, A. (2013). Road Traffic Accidents in Saudi Arabia: An ADRL Approach and Multivariate Granger Causality. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 5(7). [2] AL-ZAHRANI, A., JAMJOOM, M. and AL-BAR, H. (1994). Traffic Accident Characteristics in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Journal of King Abdulaziz University-Engineering Sciences, 6(1), pp.69-80. [3] Ansari, S., Akhdar, F., Mandoorah, M. and Moutaery, K. (2000). Causes and effects of road traffic accidents in Saudi Arabia. Public Health, 114(1), pp.37-39. http://www.iaeme.com/IJM/index.asp 20 editor@iaeme.com
Dr. Elrayah Mohammed Ishag Osman and Dr. Najeeb AlMater [4] Bener, A. and El-Sayyad, G. (1985). Epidemiology of Motor Vehicle Accidents in Jeddah. Journal of the Royal Society of Health, 105(6), pp.200-201. [5] Cochran, William G (1952) “ the Chi- square test of goodness of fit” The annals of Mathematical Statistic. 23: 315-345. [6] Coder, G.W. Foreman, D.I.(2009) Nonparametric statistic for Non statisticians: step by step approach Wiley [7] Greenwood, P.E Nikulin M,S, (1996) A guide to Chi-square testing. Wiley, New York [8] Issa, Y. (2016). Effect of driver's personal characteristics on traffic accidents in Tabuk city in Saudi Arabia. Journal of Transport Literature, 10(3), pp.25-29. [9] M., E., L., F., M., A. and N., O. (2009). ROAD TRAFFIC INJURIES IN SAUDI ARABIA, AND THEIR IMPACT ON THE WORKING POPULATION. Egyptian Journal of Occupational Medicine, 33(1), pp.15-24. [10] Mansuri, F., Al-Zalabani, A., Zalat, M. and Qabshawi, R. (2015). Road safety and road traffic accidents in Saudi Arabia. A systematic review of existing evidence. Saudi Medical Journal, 36(4), pp.418-424. [11] Mufti, M., Koushki, P. and Ali, J. (1986). Road Traffic Accident Mortality in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Annals of Saudi Medicine, 6(4), pp.263-264. [12] Nikulin, M.S (1973) “Chi-Squared test for normality”. In: proceedings of the international Vilnius conference on Probability theory and Mathematical statistics [13] Odero, W., Garner, P. and Zwi, A. (1997). Road traffic injuries in developing countries: a comprehensive review of epidemiological studies. Tropical Medicine & International Health, 2(5), pp.445-460. http://www.iaeme.com/IJM/index.asp 21 editor@iaeme.com