A STUDY OF CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECT ON POWER
GENERATION
A thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Masters in
Engineering
K. I. Iftekhar Uddin Khan
B Sc in Engineering (Mechanical)
School of Aerospace, Mechanical and Manufacturing Engineering
RMIT University, Melbourne, Australia
October, 2012
ii
DECLARATION OF ORIGINALITY
I hereby declare that this thesis has not been submitted, partly or fully for the award of
any other degree or diploma in any university. To the best of my knowledge and belief,
this thesis contains no material previously published or written by another person,
except where due reference is made in the text and ethics procedures and guidelines
have been followed.
_______________
K. I. Iftekhar Uddin Khan
Date:_______________
iii
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
At first, I would like to express my whole-hearted thanks and gratitude to my senior
supervisor, A/Prof. Firoz Alam and my second supervisor Dr. Arun Kumar for their
guidance, encouragement, advice, constructive criticism and assistance.
Sincere thanks are extended to fellow postgraduate students of the School of Aerospace,
Mechanical and Manufacturing Engineering (SAMME) for their assistance, advice and
inspiration.
Finally, I thank my father Mr. M. A. Shukkur and my mother Mrs. Feroza Begum for
their support and blessings in my career. I must express my sincerest appreciation to my
mother Mrs. Feroza Begum for her encouragement and inspiration for my higher degree
by research in engineering. I also thank my brothers, sisters and my wife for their
encouragement, inspiration and support during my research work.
iv
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page No.
Title Page ............................................................................................................................i
Declaration of Originality ................................................................................................. ii
Acknowledgments ........................................................................................................... iii
Table of Contents .............................................................................................................iv
List of Tables .................................................................................................................. vii
List of Figures .................................................................................................................... x
Nomenclature....................................................................................................................xi
Abbreviations and Acronyms ......................................................................................... xii
Abstract
......................................................................................................................... 1
Chapter 1 General Introduction ....................................................
3
1.1 Status of Global Climate Change on 21st Century..........................................3
1.2 Global Climate Change in Bangladesh and Australia.....................................4
1.3 Studies on Impact of Global Climate Change ................................................6
1.4 Research Objectives ....................................................................................... 8
1.5 Research Questions ........................................................................................ 8
1.6 Rationale of the Research ............................................................................... 9
1.7 Scope and Methodology of the Research ...................................................... 10
1.8 Organisation of Thesis .................................................................................. 13
Chapter 2 Literature Review .......................................................
14
2.1 What is Climate Change? .............................................................................. 14
2.2 Reasons for Climate Change ......................................................................... 15
2.2.1 Natural Reasons .............................................................................. 15
2.2.2 Human Causes of Climate Change ................................................. 16
2.3 Effects of Climate Change ............................................................................. 17
2.4 Global Climate Change and Natural Disaster................................................ 18
v
2.5. Impact of Climate Change on Industry......................................................... 20
2.6 Impact of Climate Change on Design Parameters ...................................... ..22
2.7 Reviews on Different Types of Power Plant.................................................25
2.7.1 Thermal Power Plant.......................................................................25
2.7.2 Nuclear Power Plant.......................................................................28
2.7.3 Hydroelectric Power Plant .............................................................29
2.8 Climate Change Impact on Power Generation .............................................. 30
2.9 Concluding Remarks for this Chapter ..........................................................32
Chapter 3 Case Study-I: Bangladesh ..........................................
33
3.1 Demands for Electricity ................................................................................. 33
3.2 Status of Current Power Generation .............................................................. 35
3.3 Power Generation Plan for Next Five Years ................................................ 36
3.4 Projected Power Generation by Year 2100 ................................................... 40
3.5 Effect of Climate Change on Power Generation ........................................... 47
3.5.1 Impact on Power Plant Cooling System ......................................... 47
3.5.2 Inundation ...................................................................................... 51
3.5.3 Flood Risks .................................................................................... 55
3.5.4 Physical Risk due to Erosion .......................................................... 56
3.6 Concluding Remarks for this Chapter...............................................58
Chapter 4 Case Study-II: Australia .............................................
59
4.1 Present Status of Energy in Australia ............................................................ 59
4.2 Energy Use Projection for Australia up to Year 2100 ................................... 62
4.3 Climate Change and Australia ....................................................................... 66
4.3.1 Impact of Climate Change in Australia .......................................... 67
4.3.2 Impact of Climate Change on Energy and Infrastructure in
Australia .................................................................................................. 68
4.4 Australian Climate Change Scenario and Model Analysis ........................... 69
4.4.1 Scenario Analysis ........................................................................... 69
4.4.2 Model Analysis ............................................................................... 70
