Master thesis: Four factors affecting sea freight rates and the current import and export activities of Quang Ninh shipping agency (VOSA Quang Ninh)

The global shipping market is increasingly characterized by volatility, driven by factors such as supply and demand imbalances, fluctuating fuel prices, geopolitical instabilities, and the growing impact of weather and climate change. These external dynamics profoundly influence international trade, particularly affecting the import and export performance of logistics enterprises like VOSA Quang Ninh in Vietnam. This study addresses the critical need to comprehensively understand how these four key macroeconomic and market factors collectively shape sea freight rates and operational efficiencies. By investigating their impact on VOSA Quang Ninh's dry bulk import and export activities on the European route, this research aims to provide crucial insights, enabling businesses and policymakers to develop adaptive strategies for navigating a complex and dynamic global maritime transport landscape.

Logistics enterprise managers and policymakers in Vietnam, particularly those involved in maritime transport and dry bulk shipping, alongside academic researchers in international business and maritime economics.

This study systematically investigates the influence of four critical macroeconomic and market factors—namely, supply and demand, fuel prices, political-economic conditions, and weather/seasonal factors—on the dry bulk import and export activities of VOSA Quang Ninh on the European route from 2019 to 2024. Employing advanced econometric methodologies, specifically the ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) and ECM (Error Correction Model) models, the research meticulously identifies both the long-term equilibrium and short-term dynamics between these variables and the company’s operational performance. Key findings reveal that freight rate fluctuations, largely reflecting supply and demand imbalances, exert the most significant and direct impact on VOSA Quang Ninh's profitability, underscoring the firm's susceptibility to global maritime market shifts. Furthermore, exchange rate volatility considerably affects financial outcomes due to revenue denomination in USD versus VND operating costs, while Brent oil prices directly elevate short-term operational expenses. Weather and seasonal factors are also shown to cause temporary disruptions in shipping and port operations. Based on these insights, the study proposes a comprehensive set of six solution groups aimed at enhancing operational efficiency and risk management capacity. These include optimizing supply and demand and freight rate management, improving fleet operations and fuel consumption, mitigating exchange rate and financial risks, fostering adaptability to environmental conditions, promoting management innovation and digital transformation, and strengthening human resources alongside analytical capabilities. This research offers valuable managerial implications for logistics enterprises in Vietnam, contributing to a robust understanding of how macroeconomic forces shape their competitiveness and sustainability in maritime transport.