Modelling of Optimal Sourcing Strategy for Future LNG
Demand
A thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of
Engineering
Israt Mustary
B Sc in Computer Science & Engineering
Darul Ihsan University, Bangladesh
School of Engineering
College of Science, Technology, Engineering and Maths
RMIT University
October 2020
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Declaration of Originality
I certify that except where due acknowledgement has been made, the work is that of the
author alone; the work has not been submitted previously, in whole or in part, to qualify
for any other academic award; the content of the thesis is the result of work which has
been carried out since the official commencement date of the approved research
program; any editorial work, paid or unpaid, carried out by a third party is
acknowledged; and, ethics procedures and guidelines have been followed.
I acknowledge the support I have received for my research through the provision of an
Australian Government Research Training Program Scholarship.
Israt Mustary
Date: 06 October 2020
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List of Publications
The following is a list of publications arisen from this work:
Mustary, I., Chowdhury, H., Loganathan, B., & Alam, F. (2017). Development
of a Computational Model for Optimal Sourcing of LNG. Energy Procedia, 110,
597-603.
Alam, F., Saleque, K., Alam, Q., Mustary, I., Chowdhury, H., & Jazar, R.
(2019). Dependence on energy in South Asia and the need for a regional
solution. Energy Procedia, 160, 26-33.
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Acknowledgments
At first, I want to express my whole-hearted thanks and gratitude to my senior
supervisor, Professor Firoz Alam for his guidance, encouragement, advice, constructive
criticism and assistance. Special thanks to Dr Harun Chowdhury and Dr Bavin
Loganathan for their assistance with this study.
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Table of Contents
Declaration of Originality ............................................................................................. ii
List of Publications....................................................................................................... iii
Acknowledgments ........................................................................................................ iv
Table of Contents .......................................................................................................... v
List of Tables ................................................................................................................ ix
List of Figures .............................................................................................................. xi
Nomenclature and Units ............................................................................................. xiii
Abbreviations and Acronyms ..................................................................................... xiv
Abstract ......................................................................................................................... 1
1.1 Global energy scenario ................................................................................ 3
Global oil scenario ...................................................................................... 6
Global coal scenario .................................................................................... 7
Future sources of primary energy ................................................................ 9
1.2 Advantages of LNG .................................................................................. 10
Global LNG market and future demand .................................................... 11
LNG transportation system ....................................................................... 14
1.3 Factors for optimal sourcing strategy for LNG importers ......................... 17
Production capacity of the source terminal ............................................... 18
Price at the source ..................................................................................... 18
Distance between source and destination terminals .................................. 18
Risk on the transportation route ................................................................ 18
Trade dispute between source country with other nations ........................ 19
Source country’s involvement in internal/external conflicts or warfare ... 20