Climate change and impacts in Viet Nam

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Viet Nam is considered as one of the most vulnerable countries due to CC and sea level rise. If sea level rise of 1 m, Viet Nam will loose about 12% of land, 23% of population will be affected. Typhoons occur more frequently with higher intensity. Temperature increases and change in rainfall pattern will affect agriculture and water resources.

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Nội dung Text: Climate change and impacts in Viet Nam

CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGE AND IMPACTS IN VIET NAM AND IMPACTS IN VIET NAM
• Viet Nam is considered as one of the most vulnerable countries due to CC and sea level rise. • If sea level rise of 1 m, Viet Nam will loose about 12% of land, 23% of population will be affected. • Typhoons occur more frequently with higher intensity. • Temperature increases and change in rainfall pattern will affect agriculture and water resources.
Impacts of sea level rise “Large percentage of 3m Vietnam’s population and economic activities are located in these two river deltas. 14% of Vietnam population would be impacted by a 1m SLR. This is the largest percentage of 2m 4m impacted population among all 84 countries. Vietnam impacted population would 1m reach 35% with a 5m SLR. The impact of SLR on 5m Vietnam’s GDP and urban extent follow the impact on WB 2007 its population”.
Inundation in Mekong River Delta due to 1 m Sea Level Rise Source: HMS
Climate Change in Vietnam • Annual average temperature 23.0 O Annual temperature C increases about 0.10C per decade. In some summer months, 22.5 temperature increases about 0.1- 22.0 0.3oC per decade. 3 4 2 21.5 1 • More heavy Yea rainfalls 21.0 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 r 2004 causing severe Variability (1), climatological average (2), moving average (time step - 11 year) (3) and linear trend (4) of Temperature at A Luoi floods; station. • Rainfall 5000 m Rainfall of Aug.- decreases in m Dec. dry season 4000 3 4 (Jul., Aug.) and 3000 2 increases in 2000 1 rainy season 1000 Year 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 (Sep. to Nov.). Variability (1), climatological average (2), moving average (time step - 11 year) (3) and linear trend (4) of August- Source: Vietnam National communication December rainfall at A Luoi station.
Climate Change in Vietnam Cumulative tracks of tropical cyclones (1985–2005) [Nicholls et al.., 2007] Typhoon trajectory moves southward and typhoon season shifts to later months of the year;
Climate Change in Vietnam • High floods occur more frequently in the Central and Southern Vietnam. • Drought happen every year in most regions of the country.
Climate Change Vietnam • ENSO has stronger effects on weather regime and climatic features in various areas of Viet Nam; • Sea level rises from 2.5-3 cm per decade in the last century.
Impacts on Coastal Zone Vulnerability of delta dwelling populations [Source: Nicholls et al., 2007]
Impacts of Climate Change Water Respurses Public Agriculture Health Climate Environ Change Forestry ment Tourism Energy
Impact on Agriculture Yield of rice decrease • Shift of planting boundary: By 2070s, by 10% for every 1oC tropical trees/ crops would be able to grow increase in growing at the altitude 100-550 meters higher and season minimum move 100-200 km northwards compared to temperature (IPCC AR4 present. WG2TS, 2007) • Large areas in Mekong and Red River deltas would be under salt water due to sea level rise. Source: Vietnam National communication
Impacts on Water Resources • Instability in rainfall would cause more severe floods in rainy season and droughts in dry season. • Increase in frequency and intensity of typhoons, storms would cause high floods & inundation, flash floods, landslide and erosion. • Increasing water shortage and growing water demand threaten water supply, water use conflicts. Source: Vietnam National communication
Impacts on Forestry • Decrease of mangrove forest, due to sea level rise. • Forest with drought stand varieties would increase due to low soil moisture and high evapotranspiration. • Biodiversity degradation: extinction of endangered species; • Increasing risk of forest fire; • Increase and wide spread of plant pests and diseases. Source: Vietnam National communication
Impacts on Aquaculture & Fisheries • Sea level rise would reduce fresh water creatures in rivers & estuaries, high temperature – reduce high valuable sub-tropical fishes; • Habitat loss for young creatures due to mangrove decrease; • Reducing sea products productivity and commercial quality due to: – Migration of fishes; – Reduction of body weight. Source: Vietnam National communication
Impacts on Coastal Zone • Large areas of the Mekong, Red River deltas and Central coastal zone would be inundated due to sea level rise. • Coastal & estuarine wetlands would be affected due to frequent floods, severe drought & salinity (Ca Mau, Ho Chi Minh City, Vung Tau and Nam Dinh) • Livelihood of coastal population will be affected by more severe storms, flood, drought and sea level rise. Projections for a 1 m sea level rise: 15,000- 20,000 km2 of Mekong River delta flooded, affecting 3.5 to 5 million people, respectively. IPCC AR4, 2007
Impacts on Energy, Transportation • Oil, gas platforms would be affected by typhoons, storms; • Seaports and roads designed basing on historical sea level would be affected. • Less energy generation due to drought ; • Unstable flow regimes may lead to conflict in water regulation at hydropower stations. • More energy consumption for due to high temperature and humidity. Source: Vietnam National communication
Impacts on Human Health Negative Impact Positive Impact Very high confidence Malaria: contraction and expansion, changes in transmission season High confidence Increase in malnutrition Increase in the number of people suffering from deaths, disease and injuries from extreme weather events Increase in the frequency of cardio-respiratory diseases from changes in air quality Change in the range of infectious disease vector Reduction of cold-related deaths Medium confidence Increase in the burden of diarrheal diseases