Risk assessment in ship repair scheduling

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The purpose of this research is developing a recommendation for the shipyard to get the best schedule, and not get the risk of delays in ship repair, in this case, is PT. ASS.

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International Journal of Mechanical Engineering and Technology (IJMET) Volume 10, Issue 03, March 2019, pp. 1-8. Article ID: IJMET_10_03_001 Available online at http://www.iaeme.com/ijmet/issues.asp?JType=IJMET&VType=10&IType=3 ISSN Print: 0976-6340 and ISSN Online: 0976-6359 © IAEME Publication Scopus Indexed RISK ASSESSMENT IN SHIP REPAIR SCHEDULING Muhammad Badrus Zaman Head, Department of Marine Engineering Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember, Surabaya. Indonesia. Nurhadi Siswantoro Laboratory of Marine Operation & Maintenance, Department of Marine Engineering, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember, Surabaya. Indonesia. Rizky R. Nandiansyah Department of Marine Engineering, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember, Surabaya. Indonesia. Semin Professor, Department of Marine Engineering, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember, Surabaya. Indonesia ABSTRACT A shipyard is one of the most important element in the shipping industry for carrying out a job as building and repairing ship. The purpose of this research is developing a recommendation for the shipyard to get the best schedule, and not get the risk of delays in ship repair, in this case, is PT. ASS. The result showed that the delay on ship repair project is using schedule risk delay software is 5 days maximum delay from the designated delay dates. The high impact cause of the delays is bad weather condition and worker accident. In the present work, an attempt has been made to experimentally investigate the performance of a flat plate solar air heater. Experiments were performed to find the energy and exergy efficiency at the different mass flow rate of air. It is observed that for a 16% increase in the mass flow rate of air, energy efficiency increases by 20%, whereas exergy efficiency increases by 36%. Keywords: Project management, risk assessment, scheduling. Cite this Article: Muhammad Badrus Zaman, Nurhadi Siswantoro, Rizky R. Nandiansyah and Semin, Risk Assessment in Ship Repair Scheduling, International Journal of Mechanical Engineering and Technology, 10(3), 2019, pp. 1-8. http://www.iaeme.com/IJMET/issues.asp?JType=IJMET&VType=10&IType=3 http://www.iaeme.com/IJMET/index.asp 1 editor@iaeme.com
Risk Assessment in Ship Repair Scheduling 1. INTRODUCTION Shipyard is one of the most important element in shipping industry for carrying out a job as building and repairing ship. In maritime industry itself, ship repair is become second most important aspect, approximately 40% of the operation costs in a marine shipping organization is attributable to maintenance [1]. That mean, ship repair is too important to deny. Indonesia is one of the country that improve its maritime sector, based on data from ministry of industry in 2015 there is 250 shipyard in Indonesia and the ministry of industry also predicting that the number will keep increasing in order to maintain the demand on shipbuilding and ship repair industry, parallel to number of shipyard, the number of ship repair demand is increasing [2]. In fact, in Indonesia 40% of ship repair project is delayed every year. In global cases, 30% of large construction project is delayed with extended time 10%-30% [3]. PT. Adiluhung Sarana Segara (ASS) is one of the national shipyard in Indonesia provided ship repair and ship building services. Based on the previous research, in 2015 there is 25% ship repair delays in shipyard in Surabaya. That means, almost halve of the ship repair demand in shipyard in Surabaya is delayed. Although the shipbuilding industry is characterized as high-risk, there are only limited applications of risk management incorporated into the various production processes. Since formal risk analyses have not been implemented commonly in the shipbuilding industry, this study represents an effort to assess the risk assessment process within Indonesian shipyards using PT. ASS as a case study. The majority of the ship repairs are delayed to various degrees beyond their anticipated completion dates. 2. METHOD The location and object of research are KM. Dharma Kartika III that been repaired at PT. ASS. The research is based on the repair time in real time and the planning repair time on the shipyard. The research object is using passenger ship that has many objects to repair to determine the delay time. The ship project itself is planned to start on 11 July 2018 and end on 24 July 2018. Observation study to determine the duration of repair activities in real time, is the duration in real time, the duration of activities in real time is used to determine the activities time in project planning software to find the critical path of the project, the critical path of the project is the key if the project is going to delay or not. After finding the critical path, the next step is to input the risk register and assess the delay risk of the project. The result of the research is the ship will likely delay on minimum time is at 24 July 2018 it means no delay, and have 50 % chance of having a delay and the project end at 25 July 2018. And the maximum time of delay is on 29 July 2018. The result of mitigation process simulation on the project, based on discussion with the expert and the shipyard worker, the result is the maximum time of delay after mitigated is 26 July 2018, but the mitigation process also determines the cost of the mitigation process, the mitigation process cost around 5,207 dollars each mitigation activities [4-11]. In other countries such as China, CPM is used as a tool to control projects that are running [12]. The method of simulation is using project management software, the software provided the schedule arranging and can determine the critical path of the process and also can determine the risk of the schedule. KM. Dharma Kartika III is a passenger ship with specification as follows: Length Over All : 71.82 meter Breadth : 14.70 meter http://www.iaeme.com/IJMET/index.asp 2 editor@iaeme.com
Muhammad Badrus Zaman, Nurhadi Siswantoro, Rizky R. Nandiansyah and Semin Height : 4.10 meter Draft : 3.10 meter Goss Tonnage : 2,624 ton Analyzing time for the normal duration of the project is based on the repair schedule of KM. Dharma Kartika III and repair list that have been agreed by PT. ASSand ship owner. Based on the schedule, the date of the ship repair of KM. Dharma Kartika 3 is from 11 July 2018 to 24 July 2018. The activities work breakdown structure can be seen in Figure 1. Figure 1 Work Breakdown Structure of the Project 2.1. Risk Matrix The schedule risk delay is based on probability and impact of the risk register, the risk Register then summarized to determine the risk score of the risk register, the risk score is used to plot the risk matrix and determine the level of the risk register. The risk matrix in this research is using the 5x5 risk matrix, the risk matrix can be seen in Figure 2. Figure 2 5x5 Risk matrix using for the Risk analysis 2.2. Determining Impact The worst impact that can happen to the project finish dates must be identified and reviewed when analyzing the consequence. The consequence data must be the impact of the schedule project delay. The impact criteria that used in this research is reviewed and approved by the production division in the shipyard based on the duration of the delay that can affect the project in every activities section on Table 1 is the Impact criteria based on delays impact. http://www.iaeme.com/IJMET/index.asp 3 editor@iaeme.com
Risk Assessment in Ship Repair Scheduling Table 1 Impact criteria on schedule delay Impact Index Impact Rating Description 1 Very Low 1 day 3 Medium >2 day 4 High >3 day 5 Very High >3 day delay 2.3. Determining Probability The probability is the qualitative answer of how many the risk event occur in the activity that causes the activities delay. On Table 2 the description about probability criteria of the delay risk, the probability criteria is based on the previous researcher and approved by the production division of the shipyard. The simulation is using project management software, the software can also assess the risk of the schedule delay of the project. The main goal of the software is to assess the risk of the project schedule and applied it to schedule to see the estimated delay time. The software also can apply the mitigation process and the result after the mitigation process to simulate the difference between the schedule at risk, normal schedule, and the schedule after the mitigation process. Table 2 Probability criteria on schedule delay Probability index Probability rating Probability 1 Very Low 70% After getting the risk score, then plotting the risk score to risk matrix and developing the simulation in project management software to determine the delay date. The risk register can be seen in Table 3. The matrix can be configured in Primavera Risk analysis, the plotting result can be seen in Figure 3 and the highest risk is on bad weather condition and worker accident with score 24. Table 3 Risk register and score based on project management software Risk Pre-mitigation ID Type Title Probability Schedule Cost Performance Score Bad Weather Risk 1 Threat L VH N N 24 Condition Lack of Risk 2 Threat M M N N 10 Material Lack of Risk 3 Threat L L N N 3 equipment New to Risk 4 Threat System L M N N 6 design Worker Risk 5 Threat L VH N N 24 Accident http://www.iaeme.com/IJMET/index.asp 4 editor@iaeme.com
Muhammad Badrus Zaman, Nurhadi Siswantoro, Rizky R. Nandiansyah and Semin Risk Pre-mitigation ID Type Title Probability Schedule Cost Performance Score Pipeline Risk 6 Threat M M N N 10 Design Lack of Risk 7 Threat L M N N 6 worker Delays in Risk 8 Threat Material L M N N 6 from owner Figure 3 Risk Register after Inputting the Risk Register Score to Risk Matrix 3. RESULT AND DISCUSSION The simulations have done 1000 iteration based on the software. The simulation is done between the normal duration of the project, the risk schedule delay, and the post-mitigation after assessing the risk. By Inputting the risk register into the schedule is the very maximum date of delay is 29 July 2018 it means 5 days delay from the planned date, and the simulation on 1000 iterations have 50% delay on 25 July 2018 and the minimum number on 24 July 2018, the result of the simulation can be seen in Figure 4. The Mitigation process after the risk analysis has 8 mitigation. The mitigation process is based on the discussion with the expert and the worker at the shipyard. Almost all of the mitigation process is increasing work hour of the worker to reduce the delay risk of the project. The complete mitigation process and the result can be seen in Figure 5. After input the mitigation process, the software also calculating the delay date after mitigating process. The result at Figure 6 shown that the mitigation process has the big impact on the delayed schedule, the delay is likely to reduce from 5 days to only 2 days maximum, and the 70% iterations are on 24 July 2018, that means the schedule is 70% not having the delay after mitigating process. Comparing the simulation result of the normal dates, the risk assessment, and after mitigating process can be seen in Figure 7, from the result can be seen the impact of the risk on the planned schedule is it can increase the cost of the project and also increasing the work hour of the worker. The difference maximum time between the normal dates, the risk schedule and after mitigation is 5 maximum days on the risk schedule and 2 maximum days on after mitigation process to planned dates. http://www.iaeme.com/IJMET/index.asp 5 editor@iaeme.com
Risk Assessment in Ship Repair Scheduling Figure 4 Simulation Result after Inputting the Risk on the Schedule Figure 5 the mitigation process and the score after mitigation process Figure 6 Simulation Result after Inputting the Mitigation Process. http://www.iaeme.com/IJMET/index.asp 6 editor@iaeme.com
Muhammad Badrus Zaman, Nurhadi Siswantoro, Rizky R. Nandiansyah and Semin Figure 7 Comparison Result between the Planned Dates, The Risk Schedule, and after Mitigation. 4. CONCLUSIONS This Paper presented the risk of the ship repair project schedule on the passenger’s ship annual survey. The project has delayed on maximum days in 5 days delay from the planned schedule, and 2 days maximum from the planned dates after mitigating process, the very impacted cause of the delays is bad weather condition and the worker accident. And the mitigation process is increasing work hour of the worker and third-party supplier for the shipyard to decrease the delay risk from procurement. From simulations, the project was delayed for 5 days, but delays reduced to 2 days after mitigation from planned date. It means 3 days faster than risk delay dates. The mitigation process is focused on increasing work hour based on discussion with the expert because increasing work hour is the easiest mitigation process and also have low cost. In the future, this research will not only be applied to guidelines for scheduling on passenger ships survey but also for other types of ships. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT The authors thank the member of the Laboratory of Marine Operation and Maintenance, Department of Marine Engineering, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember (ITS) for their assistance and continuous support on the analysis and evaluation of simulation and other data. And LPPM ITS for the support of this research. REFERENCES [1] A. y. mohammed, "Development of Ship Maintenance Performance Measurement Framework to Assess the Decision Making Process to Optimise in Ship Maintenance Planning," Manchester, 2011. [2] I. M. o. Industry, "Indutrial in Indonesia," Indonesian Ministry of Industry, 2014. [3] S. A. Assaf and S. Al-Hejji, "Causes of delay in large construction projects. International Journal of Project Management," Science and Education, vol. 24, no. 4, pp. 349-357, 2006. [4] g. j. s. b. e. Khodakaram salimifard, "resolving resource conflicts in a ship repair project," International journal of modeling and optimization, vol. 2, no. 5, 2012. [5] S. Zareei, "Project scheduling for constructing biogas plant using critical path method," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, pp. 756-759, 2018. http://www.iaeme.com/IJMET/index.asp 7 editor@iaeme.com
Risk Assessment in Ship Repair Scheduling [6] P. X. X. L. X. W. R. Z. e. Nini Xia, "A hybrid BN-HFACS model for predicting safety performance in construction projects," Safety Science, vol. 101, pp. 332-343, 2018. [7] R. Flanagan, Risk management and construction, Oxford, Boston: Blackwell Scientific, 2003. [8] V. Holzmann, "Developing risk breakdown structure for information technology organizations," International Journal of Project Management, pp. 537-546, 2011. [9] N. P. I. S. Roy Gelbard, "Integrating system analysis and project management tools," International Journal of Project Management, vol. 20, no. 6, pp. 461-468, 2002. [10] C. G. J. Stevens and R. L. Flood, "From Sequencing to “Thinking” In Large-Scale Projects," in From Sequencing to “Thinking” In Large-Scale Projects, Springer, Boston, MA, 1989. [11] C. W. A. M. S. L. C. T. J. P. Mark F. Nagata PSP, "Construction Delays (Third Edition)," in Chapter Seven - Delay Analysis Using Critical Path Method Schedules, Butterworth, Heinemann, 2018, pp. 133-202. [12] Y. Z. G. L. Tao Zhou, "Comparison of critical success paths for historic district renovation and redevelopment projects in China," Habitat International, pp. 54-68, 2017. http://www.iaeme.com/IJMET/index.asp 8 editor@iaeme.com