Tóm tắt Luận án Tiến sĩ: Kiểm định tác động bất cân xứng của dòng vốn đầu tư trực tiếp từ nước ngoài, khí thải CO2 đến tăng trưởng kinh tế - Bằng chứng thực nghiệm tại Việt Nam

In the contemporary global landscape, the intricate balance between fostering robust economic growth and ensuring environmental sustainability poses a significant challenge, particularly for rapidly developing nations like Vietnam. Foreign direct investment (FDI) is widely recognized as a pivotal catalyst for economic expansion, yet its potential environmental consequences, notably carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, demand rigorous examination. This research delves into the complex, often asymmetric, relationship between FDI, CO2 emissions, and economic growth in Vietnam. By providing empirical evidence, this study aims to contribute a more nuanced understanding of these dynamics, which is crucial for shaping effective policies towards sustainable development in emerging economies.

Academics, researchers, policymakers, and professionals in economics, finance, environmental policy, and international investment, particularly those focused on sustainable development in Vietnam and emerging economies.

This comprehensive study investigates the intricate and often asymmetric interplay between foreign direct investment (FDI), carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, and economic growth within the specific context of Vietnam, spanning from 1986 to 2023. The research systematically clarifies the dynamics of FDI attraction and CO2 emission trends in the country, analyzing their profound effects on economic development. Integrating quantitative analysis with a thorough review of theoretical literature, the study employs sophisticated econometric methodologies, including the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and the Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model. These advanced tools enable a precise examination of the non-linear and asymmetric impacts, offering deep insights into the direction and intensity of FDI and CO2 emissions' influence on Vietnam's economy. A pivotal finding reveals a pronounced asymmetric short-term effect of CO2 emissions on economic growth: a 1% increase in emissions is linked to a 5.9% rise in subsequent economic growth, whereas a 1% decrease in emissions astonishingly correlates with an even higher growth rate of 11.4%. This empirical evidence underscores that while economic expansion may be accompanied by environmental degradation in the short run, the long-term benefits derived from emission reduction significantly outweigh the transient gains from increased emissions. The findings reflect the prevailing developmental paradigm in many emerging economies where economic growth often takes precedence over environmental protection, leading to sustained pollution and long-term adverse effects on development quality. However, the study also highlights Vietnam's commitment to progressively reduce CO2 emissions, aligning with global sustainability efforts. This strategic shift is posited as a dual advantage, simultaneously enhancing environmental quality and serving as a powerful impetus for achieving genuinely sustainable economic growth. The research offers critical quantitative insights for policymakers, guiding the formulation of more balanced foreign investment and environmental policies aimed at fostering resilient and green economic development.