2
Mô hình toán
đa thức
Mô hình hồi
quy
IGIỚI THIỆU
Bảng dữ liệu để lập mô hình cấu trúc kỳ hạn
không kỳ
hạn
1
tháng
2
tháng
3
tháng
4
tháng
5
tháng
6
tháng
9
tháng
1
năm
2
năm
3
năm
4
năm
5
năm
10
năm
15
năm
20
năm
25
năm
tháng
0mo
1mo
2mo
3mo
4mo
5mo
6mo
9mo
1yr
2yr
3yr
4yr
5yr
10yr
15yr
20yr
25yr
1. 1980
11.03
11.87
12.28
12.36
12.39
12.43
12.43
12.05
11.7
11.3
10.9
10.7
10.7
10.9
10.89
10.76
11
2. 1980
13.29
13.92
14.26
14.32
14.37
14.54
14.73
14.92
14.9
14.5
13.7
13.2
12.9
12.28
11.93
11.47
11
3. 1980
13.89
15.07
15.44
15.24
15.19
15.53
15.92
15.85
15.3
14.2
13.3
12.7
12.4
12.02
12.17
11.7
11
4. 1980
10.28
10.39
10.52
10.68
10.82
10.95
11.04
11.07
11
10.5
10.4
10.4
10.4
10.71
10.85
10.73
10
5. 1980
8.22
7.85
7.76
7.91
8.1
8.25
8.36
8.52
8.69
9.02
9.14
9.49
9.7
10.21
10.48
10.44
10
6. 1980
4.09
6.66
7.94
8.16
8.11
8.13
8.2
8.34
8.43
8.95
9.09
9.26
9.42
10.02
10.26
10.04
9.7
7. 1980
6.47
7.84
8.57
8.8
8.87
8.9
8.93
9.01
9.14
9.65
9.77
9.95
10.1
10.7
11
10.89
10
8. 1980
8.27
9.2
9.86
10.26
10.5
10.64
10.71
10.9
11.1
11.3
11.3
11.4
11.5
11.2
11.28
11.06
10
9. 1980
10.98
11.2
11.42
11.63
11.79
11.89
11.95
11.96
11.9
11.8
11.7
11.6
11.6
11.55
11.78
11.55
11
10. 1980
10.23
11.66
12.58
12.99
13.14
13.21
14.27
13.27
13.1
12.7
12.6
12.5
12.4
11.99
12.13
11.87
11
11. 1980
13.63
14.39
14.8
14.86
14.77
14.75
14.83
14.92
14.5
13.6
13.2
12.9
12.7
12.06
12.19
11.84
11
12. 1980
10.88
12.9
14.2
14.76
14.75
14.58
14.4
13.84
13.2
12.5
12.3
12.2
12.1
11.94
11.92
11.41
11
1. 1981
13.97
14.72
15.06
15.02
14.86
14.69
14.54
14.1
13.7
12.8
12.5
12.4
12.4
12.19
12.17
11.74
11
2. 1981
13.6
14.2
14.56
14.7
14.68
14.62
14.56
14.31
14
13.5
13.5
13.4
13.3
12.91
12.78
12.22
11
3. 1981
13.1
13.03
12.94
12.82
12.72
12.66
12.65
12.74
12.9
12.8
12.9
13
13
12.69
12.65
12.16
11
4. 1981
12.57
14.11
14.99
15.2
15.1
15
14.96
14.87
14.7
14.3
14.1
14
13.9
13.5
13.39
12.68
12
5. 1981
16.27
16.21
16.01
15.67
15.31
15.06
14.95
14.86
14.7
14.2
13.8
13.5
13.3
12.89
12.8
12.31
11
6. 1981
14.03
14.41
14.61
14.65
14.65
14.65
14.66
12.56
14.4
14.2
13.9
13.9
13.7
13.29
13.11
12.6
12
7. 1981
14.5
14.98
15.27
15.41
15.52
15.67
15.8
15.88
15.8
15.3
15
14.9
14.7
13.9
13.67
12.93
12
8. 1981
15.4
15.64
15.84
16
16.15
16.33
16.51
16.63
16.4
16.2
15.6
15.6
15.5
14.61
14.39
13.93
13
9. 1981
12.64
13.68
14.38
14.76
15.04
15.35
15.65
16.02
15.9
16.1
15.8
15.8
15.7
15.06
15.14
14.41
12
10. 1981
12.75
12.97
13.09
13.03
13.21
13.42
13.69
14.12
14.1
14.2
14.3
14.4
14.4
14.21
14.21
13.61
12
11. 1981
10.17
10.24
10.37
10.57
10.78
10.94
11.06
11.31
11.6
12.2
12.5
12.5
12.7
12.95
12.79
12.59
12
12. 1981
8.26
9.71
10.79
11.51
11.97
12.3
12.55
13.05
13.3
13.5
13.6
13.6
13.8
13.67
13.7
13.27
12
II HỒI QUY ĐA THỨC
3
II HỒI QUY ĐA THỨC
Tháng
0mo
1mo
2mo
3mo
4mo
5mo
6mo
9mo
1yr
2 yr
3yr
4yr
5yr
10yr
15yr
20yr
25yr
0.000
0.083
0.167
0.250
0.333
0.417
0.500
0.750
1
2
3
4
5
10
15
20
25
1.1980
0
0.84
1.25
1.33
1.36
1.4
1.4
1.02
0.7
0.28
-0.1
-0.3
-0.3
-0.1
-0.1
-0.3
-0.5
2.1980
0
0.63
0.97
1.03
1.08
1.25
1.44
1.63
1.61
1.17
0.36
-0.1
-0.4
-1
-1.4
-1.8
-2.4
3.1980
0
1.18
1.55
1.35
1.3
1.64
2.03
1.96
1.39
0.26
-0.6
-1.2
-1.5
-1.9
-1.7
-2.2
-3
4.1980
0
0.11
0.24
0.4
0.54
0.67
0.76
0.79
0.68
0.22
0.1
0.12
0.16
0.43
0.57
0.45
0.12
5.1980
0
-0.4
-0.5
-0.3
-0.1
0.03
0.14
0.3
0.47
0.8
0.92
1.27
1.48
1.99
2.26
2.22
1.95
6.1980
0
2.57
3.85
4.07
4.02
4.04
4.11
4.25
4.34
4.86
5
5.17
5.33
5.93
6.17
5.95
5.56
7.1980
0
1.37
2.1
2.33
2.4
2.43
2.46
2.54
2.67
3.18
3.3
3.48
3.64
4.23
4.53
4.42
3.93
8.1980
0
0.93
1.59
1.99
2.23
2.37
2.44
2.63
2.87
2.99
3
3.16
3.21
2.93
3.01
2.79
2.21
9.1980
0
0.22
0.44
0.65
0.81
0.91
0.97
0.98
0.91
0.86
0.7
0.64
0.61
0.57
0.8
0.57
-0.1
10.1980
0
1.43
2.35
2.76
2.91
2.98
3.04
3.04
2.88
2.46
2.33
2.23
2.13
1.76
1.9
1.64
1.01
11.1980
0
0.76
1.17
1.23
1.14
1.12
1.2
1.29
0.82
0.01
-0.5
-0.8
-1
-1.6
-1.4
-1.8
-2.6
12.1980
0
2.02
3.32
3.88
3.87
3.7
3.52
2.96
2.32
1.64
1.39
1.28
1.22
1.06
1.04
0.53
-0.2
1.1981
0
0.75
1.09
1.05
0.89
0.72
0.57
0.13
-0.3
-1.2
-1.5
-1.6
-1.6
-1.8
-1.8
-2.2
-3
2.1981
0
0.6
0.96
1.1
1.08
1.02
0.96
0.71
0.4
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.7
-0.8
-1.4
-2.2
3.1981
0
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4
-0.4
-0.4
-0.4
-0.2
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
-0.1
-0.4
-0.4
-0.9
-2
4.1981
0
1.54
2.42
2.63
2.53
2.43
2.39
2.3
2.1
1.73
1.55
1.43
1.33
0.93
0.82
0.11
-0.9
5.1981
0
-0.1
-0.3
-0.6
-1
-1.2
-1.3
-1.4
-1.6
-2.1
-2.5
-2.7
-3
-3.4
-3.5
-4
-4.9
6.1981
0
0.38
0.58
0.62
0.62
0.62
0.63
0.53
0.39
0.16
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.7
-0.9
-1.4
-2.5
7.1981
0
0.48
0.77
0.91
1.02
1.17
1.3
1.38
1.25
0.83
0.54
0.4
0.16
-0.6
-0.8
-1.6
-2.9
8.1981
0
0.24
0.44
0.6
0.75
0.93
1.11
1.23
0.95
0.75
0.2
0.2
0.06
-0.8
-1
-1.5
-2.8
9.1981
0
1.04
1.74
2.12
2.4
2.71
3.01
3.38
3.27
3.47
3.18
3.21
3.06
2.42
2.5
1.77
-0.2
10.1981
0
0.22
0.34
0.28
0.46
0.67
0.94
1.37
1.35
1.41
1.5
1.6
1.64
1.46
1.46
0.86
-0.5
11.1981
0
0.07
0.2
0.4
0.61
0.77
0.89
1.14
1.39
2.06
2.36
2.42
2.55
2.78
2.62
2.42
1.69
12.1981
0
1.45
2.53
3.25
3.71
4.04
4.29
4.79
5.07
5.25
5.32
5.46
5.51
5.41
5.44
5.01
3.62
INSERT/ CHART chọn XY Graph
II HỒI QUY ĐA THỨC
4
II HỒI QUY ĐA THỨC
II HỒI QUY ĐA THỨC
5
II HỒI QUY ĐA THỨC
Sửdụng hàm linest() trong excel
B1:
B2: Bôi đen 5 dòng và 4 cột:
B3: Nhập hàm linest() sau đó nhấn tổhợp phím Ctrl+shilt+enter.
II HỒI QUY ĐA THỨC
0mo
1mo
2mo
3mo
4mo
5mo
6mo
9mo
Time
0.000
0.083
0.167
0.250
0.333
0.417
0.500
0.750
Time2
0
0.0069
0.0278
0.0625
0.1111
0.1736
0.2500
0.5625
Time3
0
0.0006
0.0046
0.0156
0.0370
0.0723
0.1250
0.4219
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