Summary of Ph.D thesis: The impact of exports on economic growth in Khanh Hoa province

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Overall objectives: Systematizing the theoretical basis of the impact of exports on economic growth; giving a complete picture of the GRDP growth and export performance of Khanh Hoa province with specific light and dark colors; analyzing the impact of exports on the economy’s growth of Khanh Hoa province from the perspective of quality through the angles of increasing output, restructuring the industry's economy and reducing poverty; some policy implications are proposed to promote the expansion of export activities, thereby promoting economic growth in Khanh Hoa province.

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DA NANG UNIVERSITY UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS THE IMPACT OF EXPORTS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH OF KHANH HOA PROVINCE SUMMARY OF Ph.D THESIS Specialization: Development Economics Code: 62. 31. 01. 05 Da Nang, 2022
The thesis was completed at UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS, THE UNIVERSITY OF DANANG Reviewer 1: ...................................................... Reviewer 2: ...................................................... Reviewer 3: ...................................................... The dissertation will be defended at the doctoral defence committee from University of Economics, The University of Danang on .................... 202.. The dissertation can be found at: - National Library of Vietnam - The University of Da Nang - The Center for Learning Information Resources and Communication.
1 PREAMBLE 1. Urgency of the topic Globalization and open integration are inevitable trends in the current open economic era. The opening and strengthening of trade helps economies to take advantage of their comparative advantages, improve and enhance their economic competitiveness, and create a driving force for economic growth. The effects of international trade on economic growth have been confirmed by economic theories. This is also a hot topic of discussion among researchers and policymakers. These empirical studies are approached in different ways. Among these are studies that focus on supporting the view of export-led growth. There are also studies showing that exports affects to the economic structure and promote economic growth. In another perspective, considering the impact of international trade in general and exports in particular on poverty reduction. Thus, the empirical studies mainly select the national economy or the transnational region. Studies about provincial economy also exist, but not many, and especially with Khanh Hoa province, there is not yet. A research result on this topic with the economy of Khanh Hoa will be a test and supplement to enrich this area of research in the development economics style. Over the years, Khanh Hoa's GRDP scale has been continuously expanded thanks to a relatively high and stable growth rate, with the main driving forces being services and the non-state economic sector, and breadth factors (capital and labor). Economic restructuring has seen positive changes in the past 10 years. However, the province's economic growth rate is not commensurate with its potential and existing strengths; it is slowing down and lacks new impetus. In addition, the economic position of the province compared to other provinces in the Middle Coastal Region has a certain decline and the economic structure is still changing slowly and changing less than that of the provinces in the region. It has not changed strongly in the direction of restructuring production, restructuring investment... In the context of globalization and integration of Vietnam, Khanh Hoa's economy is also increasingly integrating deeply into the world economy. Khanh Hoa has had economic relations with many localities of many countries. Khanh Hoa province's exports scale has been expanded continuously for more than 10 years, the export structure has changed positively. How does such an export growth affect output growth both directly and spreadly into other fields, especially exports, and changes in the quality of goods, can change the production structure of Khanh Hoa? In addition, does exports help improve welfare and reduce poverty
2 here and thereby improve the quality of economic growth. These questions became more heated when the Khanh Hoa Provincial Government determined to continue restructuring the economy and renewing the growth model through restructuring export activities associated with improving productivity and efficiency. This is a practical question that research on this topic needs to answer. Exports are still an important factor in Khanh Hoa's economic growth to fulfill the goal of turning the province into a fairly developed economy in Vietnam. In order to do this, it is necessary to conduct research on this topic to draw out export development policy directions to promote economic growth in Khanh Hoa province quickly and sustainably. This is the policy requirement for research. The theoretical, practical, and policy issues that need to be solved have raised the need for a study on the topic "The impact of exports on economic growth in Khanh Hoa province.” 2. Research objective Overall objectives: The thesis studies the impact of exports on economic growth in Khanh Hoa province. Detail goals: - Firstly, systematizing the theoretical basis of the impact of exports on economic growth. - Secondly, giving a complete picture of the GRDP growth and export performance of Khanh Hoa province with specific light and dark colors. - Thirdly, analyzing the impact of exports on the economy’s growth of Khanh Hoa province from the perspective of quality through the angles of increasing output, restructuring the industry's economy and reducing poverty. - Fourthly, some policy implications are proposed to promote the expansion of export activities, thereby promoting economic growth in Khanh Hoa province. 3. Object and scope of research - Object research: The topic focuses on researching theoretical and practical issues about the impact of exports on economic growth in Khanh Hoa province. - Scope of research: + About the content: The exports in the study is the exports of goods and services in the district-level units of Khanh Hoa province. Here also only consider the growth of export scale mainly. Economic growth in the study is not only an increase in output, but also considers the structure of the economic sector and reduces poverty, i.e the thesis considers the quality of economic growth. In addition, the thesis also only considers the one-way effect from exports to the economic growth.
3 + Space: Economy of Khanh Hoa province. + Time: Data used in the study from 2010 to 2019, some to 2020. The policy implications have the significance till 2030. 4. Research Methodology Research methodology will be explained in the below chapter 2. 5. Scientific significance of the thesis 5.1. Theoretical contributions and main findings First, the theories of economic growth in Development Economics have been summarized, thereby drawing out how exports affect economic growth. However, the empirical studies on this topic in Vietnam and around the world have differences in the context and scale of the economy. From these works, the thesis has formed an analytical framework for studying the impact of exports on growth on the local economy at the provincial level. The fact that there is very little and no research on this topic at the provincial level and in particular in Khanh Hoa, the thesis's results are a supplement to enrich the theory of economic development. This is a contribution of the thesis when it has contributed to fill the "gap" in theory. Secondly, the research results have shown the basic bright and dark points about economic growth of Khanh Hoa province: The scale of the province's economy in the past 10 years has been continuously expanded thanks to the relatively high growth rate, stable with the main driving force being services, non- state economic sector and breadth factors (capital and labor). However, the province's economic growth rate is not commensurate with the potential and existing strengths; is slowing down and lacks new impetus, the economic position of the province compared to other provinces in the coastal zone has a certain decline. The economic structure has changed quite positively in the past 10 years, which has contributed to changing the way economic growth is generated. Thirdly, the research results have made specific assessments of the export situation associated with the characteristics of Khanh Hoa province. Khanh Hoa province's export scale has expanded continuously over the past 10 years, currently accounting for a large proportion compared to GRDP, but the growth rate is slower than the province's economic growth and is less stable, but its position in the Vietnam's export turnover is quite modest. Fourthly, the results of the thesis have confirmed that export has a positive effect on economic growth: (i) Positive impact from export turnover growth on production value growth of the economy and exports has a positive spillover effect on other economic sectors; (ii) Exports also promotes economic restructuring of the province and is shown in the evidence that the growth of export turnover reduces the proportion of workers in the agricultural sector and
4 increases the proportion of workers in the non-agricultural sector. This positive economic structural change will help the economy achieve a more efficient growth pattern; (iii) Exports has a positive effect on poverty reduction here, as demonstrated by the impact of export growth on poverty improvement in the province. 5.2. Practical contributions drawn from the research results Firstly, to expand, support, improve and raise the quality of export activities thereby promoting output growth: Promote openness, promote export as export promotion orientation; Improve the competitiveness of exported goods; Find all measures to improve the labor productivity of export activities; Continue to promote the strength of resources and labor to expand exports. Second, focus on improving export activities, especially export restructuring, thereby promoting economic restructuring of the province. Accordingly, focus on: Exports restructuring associated with economic restructuring, especially in the service - tourism sector of the province, from raw exports to exporting of high-tech products and services; E-commerce application to support key export industries; Strengthen trade promotion; Promote the role of export business associations. Thirdly, promote the role of exports in improving poverty, thereby promoting economic growth; specifically supporting economic development in rural areas; Promoting specialization and improve the quality of exported agricultural products; Improving the quality of rural workers; Raising and improving rural infrastructure in remoted areas. 6. Structure of the thesis CHAPTER 1. THEORETICAL AND EXPERIMENTAL BASIS ON IMPACTS OF EXPORT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH CHAPTER 2. LOCAL CHARACTERISTICS AND RESEARCH METHODOLOGY CHAPTER 3. EXPORT SITUATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH OF KHANH HOA PROVINCE CHAPTER 4. ANALYSING THE IMPACTS OF EXPORTS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN KHANH HOA PROVINCE CHAPTER 5. POLICY IMPLICATIONS
5 CHAPTER 1 THEORETICAL AND EXPERIMENTAL BASIS ON THE IMPACT OF EXPORT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH 1.1. GENERAL ISSUES ON ECONOMIC GROWTH AND EXPORTS 1.1.1. General problems of economic growth a. The concept of economic growth b. Contents of economic growth assessment 1.1.2. General Export Issues 1.2. THEORIES RELATED TO THE IMPACT OF EXPORTS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH 1.2.1 Theories on the impact of exports on growth from the aggregate demand side 1.2.1.1. The theory of gravity economy 1.2.1.2. Kaldor's export-led growth theory 1.2.2. Theories on the impact of exports on growth from the aggregate supply side 1.2.2.1. Classical economic theories 1.2.2.2. Neoclassical Theory 1.2.2.3. The theory of endogenous economic growth 1.2.4. Some conclusions drawn from the study of related theories Exports affects growth in terms of both aggregate supply and aggregate demand through a number of channels: First, increasing employment and income opportunities for developing economies with labor surpluses. Thereby mobilizing more potential labor into the economy to promote growth. From the perspective of aggregate demand, an increase in income leads to an increase in current and future consumption, through an output amplification effect. Increased consumption will create income and employment effects, especially in rural areas, contributing to poverty reduction. Secondly, exports contribute to the accumulation of capital - production capital thanks to foreign currency sources obtained from exports (especially in developing countries, agricultural products are often exported mainly) to provide foreign currency to buy goods. purchase modern machinery and equipment for the domestic economy. Third, exports contribute to the improvement of the economy's production techniques and technology. Fourth, export is a factor affecting economic structure change through reallocation of resources according to export markets. Fifth, exports has an impact on poverty reduction thanks to its role in terms of both aggregate supply and aggregate demand.
6 1.3. SUMMARY RESULTS OF EXPERIMENTAL RESEARCH ON IMPACTS OF EXPORT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH 1.3.1. Synthesize the results of empirical studies on the impact of exports on output growth In economics, there are many empirical studies on the relationship between international trade or exports and economic growth. Some research directions can be mentioned to understand the impact of exports on economic growth, or export- led growth. These studies used time series or cross-sectional data with different conclusions. The second group consists of studies that use regression methods to examine the relationship between export growth and economic growth, using the classical growth accounting equation. The third group tested the causal relationship between export growth and economic growth using Granger causality test. Finally, recent studies have examined the impact of exports on growth using co-integration techniques and error correction models. Some of the main studies by foreign and domestic authors following these approaches can be mentioned. Thus, most of the studies have the scope of the object is the national economy or the territory of many economies and the methods are also diverse for those subjects. In other words, research on this topic is very interested and carried out despite the different economic levels, the application of the methods can also be extended to these subjects. This also shows a gap in a study on this topic in the local economy at the provincial level. But this gap will also be filled by applying these analytical methods on the basis of the data of this economy. 1.3.2. Synthesize the results of empirical studies on the impact of exports on economic restructuring Many different studies with different approaches to examine the role of exports in economic restructuring, thereby affecting economic growth. But direct research on the impact of exports on economic restructuring is very limited, mainly through international trade activities such as export, investment, labor and technology export, exchange of goods and services. economy among countries ... affects the production structure of exporting economies. It is this structural change that entails allocating resources to create a more efficient industry structure to add impetus to economic growth. Thus, a research gap has arisen. If this study takes into account the impact of exports on economic sector restructuring, it will contribute to fill this gap. 1.3.3. Synthesize the results of empirical studies on the impact of exports on poverty reduction There have been many different studies with different approaches to examine the role of exports in poverty reduction, thereby helping to distribute the
7 results of economic growth to society, minimizing the negative side of the process. this program. But studies are often national or transnational in scope, although there are studies of the national economy using district-level data. In addition, most consider the elements of free trade, of which exports are only a small part, and have an impact on poverty reduction. Thus, there is still a lack of a study at the provincial level of the local economy and the direct impact of commodity exports on poverty reduction. CONCLUSION CHAPTER 1 CHAPTER 2 LOCAL CHARACTERISTICS AND RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 2.1. CHARACTERISTICS OF RESEARCH LOCATION 2.1.1. Natural condition 2.1.2. Social and economic conditions 2.2. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 2.2.1. Analytical framework and research process 2.2.1.1. Analytical framework On the basis of the above-mentioned theories, the thesis presents a diagram showing the research analysis framework: G VA R D P The size and trend of changing exports Economic structure turnover Ex por ECONOMIC ts GROWTH Exports structure Poverty reduction Export goods structure Figure 2.2. Analytical framework
8 2.2.1.2. Research process 2.2.2. Research approach The object of research Studying the impact of exports on economic growth Research objectives Summarizing the theory of the Analysing the research impact of exports on economic articles about the relevant growth topic Qualitative methods Research methodology Analysing the impact of exports Qualitative and quantitative on economic growth in Khanh Evaluating the exports situation Hoa province of Khanh Hoa province methods Implications Figure 2.3. Research procedure (Source: from the author) 2.2.3. Research methodology 2.2.3.1. Qualitative analysis methods: including methods of analysis, comparison, descriptive statistics, expert interviews... 2.2.3.2. Quantitative analytical method: based on Mankiw's original equation and
9 Bui Quang Binh's model (2016), the thesis builds the following proposed models: ggdpit = a + αsit + βglit+ϭxxit+θgxit +uit (22) Where: ggdp = ∆Y/Y, s = I/Y, gl = = ∆L/L, xx = (∆EX/EX)(EX/Y), gx = ∆EX/EX u is the error. LnCCKTit = β0 + β1lnYit + β2sit + β3Xit + it (28) Pov = f (EX, GDP, C, Urban) (29) 2.2.4. Data collection methods 2.2.4.1. Secondary data collection method The data used for the analysis are all taken from the province's Statistical Yearbook from 2010-2020, especially in the districts of Khanh Hoa province, the data is used from 2010 to 2019 (because it is more difficult to collect district-level data. The data are provided by Khanh Hoa Statistical Office and district statistical sub-departments). 2.2.4.2. Primary data collection method Primary data is collected through expert interviews to implement the expert method. These data fall into categories such as (i) The effect of exports on economic output growth; (ii) Effects of exports on economic restructuring; (iii) Effects of exports on poverty reduction. The experts selected here are 25 import- export managers at the provincial Department of Industry and Trade, the Economic Division of the districts, towns and cities, a number of large export enterprises in the province. The data was collected when using the questionnaire in The Appendix 1. CONCLUSION CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 3 ECONOMIC GROWTH AND EXPORT STATUS OF KHANH HOA PROVINCE 3.1. ECONOMIC GROWTH SITUATION OF KHANH HOA PROVINCE 3.1.1. Scale and changing trend of GRDP in Khanh Hoa province The scale of the economy expanded continuously, growing quite high, continuously and quite stable compared to the common level of the Middle Coastal Region provinces. The scale of production value of localities at district level tends to be expanded in recent years. This creates and maintains the province's overall economic growth over the years. In which, production value of Nha Trang City is the largest economy, reaching more than 31.1 trillion VND in 2010 and more than 58.9 trillion VND in 2019, an average growth of 7.35%.
10 3.1.2. Economic structure and restructuring the economic structure of Khanh Hoa province has had a positive change, but it is still slow and has changed less than the situation in the Northern mountainous region. invest; slow development of in-depth investment in industries with high technology content and great added value. Competitive advantages in each industry, region and economic sector have not been brought into play. At the same time, three economic regions have been formed quite clearly, along with the structure and restructuring by regions are quite fast and strong. However, the distribution of all three regions is located in the east and following the coast will make the western region more and more backward. The economic structure of Khanh Hoa province has changed quite quickly with the increasingly important role of the non-state economic sector. 3.1.3 Mobilization, allocation and use of resources in economic growth To promote economic growth, Khanh Hoa province has (i) Mobilized a relatively large and continuously increasing investment source from within the economy and the private sector; Focusing on allocating investment capital for service development and spending very little on agriculture, forestry and fishery, has limited the development of this industry; (ii) Significantly mobilized labor resources of the province and the region, concentrated labor allocation to non- agricultural sectors, promoted economic restructuring, labor utilization efficiency was quite high and gradually increased. . However, the labor structure is still less modern and has not fully exploited the development potential of non-agricultural industries; (iii) The province has made efforts to improve the level of production technology in recent years, enterprises have also invested more in technology. 3.2. EXPORT STATUS OF KHANH HOA PROVINCE 3.2.1. Scale and trend of changes in total export turnover of Khanh Hoa province Export turnover value of Khanh Hoa province has increased continuously in the past 10 years, accounting for a large proportion compared to GRDP, but increasing slower than economic growth and accounting for a relatively small proportion compared to Vietnam's export value. The export structure of the province has changed positively but is still quite limited (i) Mainly relying on exporting goods and exploiting natural advantages, but the exploitation space is still not much, the export potential is limited. service is still very large; (ii) Still mainly exporting low value raw (agricultural products and unprocessed products); (iii)
11 Focusing on traditional markets and poor diversity. CONCLUSION CHAPTER 3 CHAPTER 4 ANALYSING THE IMPACT OF EXPORTS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN KHANH HOA PROVINCE 4.1 ANALYSING THE IMPACT OF EXPORTS ON OUTPUT GROWTH IN KHANH HOA PROVINCE 4.1.1 Some evidence on the impact of exports on output growth through descriptive statistics Exports value has always been a contributing component to the output of the economy. Statistics on export growth trends and economic growth of the province and district-level units in the same direction in the period 2010-2019. This is descriptive statistical evidence that, although emotional, also shows the contribution of exports to the output growth of the economy. Figure 4.1 A shows the relationship between the proportion of heavy industry exports (representing the change in export structure towards modernization) and the increase in production value of district-level units (economic growth). The upward sloping trend line implies that an increase in the share of heavy industry exports in the export structure will improve economic growth. Note that in industrial exports, there is also a division of light industrial goods and handicrafts (Table 3.9). In contrast, Figure 4.1 B shows the relationship between the proportion of agricultural, forestry and fishery exports (representing the change in export structure) and the increase in production value of district units (economic growth). The trend line slopes down. Combining the two trends in these two figures implies that an improved and more modern export structure (increasing share of heavy industrial goods and decreasing share of agricultural, forestry and fishery products in total exports) will boost output growth.
12 Figure 4.1 The relationship between the exports structure goods and the economic growth in Khanh Hoa province 4.1.2 Model and estimated methods Model This section will use the econometric model (22) detailed in section 2.2.3.2 to conduct the estimation. Model (22) is used for OLS estimation, panel data regression. ggdpit = a + αsit + βglit+ϭxxit+θgxit +uit (22) Where: ggdp = ∆Y/Y, s = I/Y, gl = = ∆L/L, xx = (∆EX/EX) (EX/Y), gx = ∆EX/EX u is the error. Estimation methods With both spatial data – districts and cities of Khanh Hoa province and over time from 2010 -2019, panel data will be established. With this data, it is possible to apply the raw OLS estimation method (Pooled OLS). With this method, the time factor will be ignored, but only pure data observations or using cross- sectional data. The rough estimate is an OLS estimate on the spatially obtained data set of features, so then all coefficients are considered to be unchanged between different objects and unchanged over time. This is also a limitation of this method. We continue to use the panel data regression estimation method with random effects (REM) and fixed effects (FEM) with the necessary tests, then use Haussman test to select (REM), continue to deal with the endogeneity problem with the gex variable. In addition, here will use the 3SLS - GMM method by
13 adding 1 equation gex = β0 + β1 lncit + β3 csoy + uit (19) along with (18) to form a system of equations (18) and (19) means that the gex variable is endogenous. Here the endogenous variable gex is resolved through the exogenous variables in equation (19). In this case, according to Zellner, A & Theil.H (1962) can apply the 3SLS estimation method. 4.1.3 Data and defined variables 4.1.4 Estimated results The results show that the gex variable has a positive value with statistical significance in all 3 methods. This implies that export growth has a stimulating effect on economic growth and confirms the above qualitative statements when analyzing the changing trend of exports and the province's GRDP. The value of the variable gl is also positive in all three methods. This result shows that labor growth has a positive impact on economic growth, which is also consistent with the province's labor conditions and advantages. This is also the most influential factor. The variable s - ratio of investment to output also has a positive sign and is statistically significant in all 3 methods. This result implies that the savings rate has an impact on economic growth, which is also consistent with the current development stage of developing economies like Vietnam. The regression coefficient of the variable xx is 0.11 which implies that export growth has a spillover effect on all sectors of the economy. This is also a remarkable point not only to assess the role of exports in the economy but also in policy making to promote export activities of this economy in the coming years.
14 Table 4.1 The estimation results Phương pháp ước lượng Random effects OLS (REM) 3SLS Biến phụ thuộc - ggdp gex 0.266*** 0.266*** 0.588*** (0.056) (0.0496) (0.125) gl 1.423** 1.422** 1.164** (0.430) (0.547) (0.469) s 0.139** 0.138** 0.118** (0.040) (0.053) (0.044) xx 0.011*** 0.0112*** 0.016*** (0.002) (0.002) (0.003) Hằng số -5.937*** -7.84*** -7.721*** (1.502) (1.88) (1.621) R - sq 0.9669 0.9606 0.9460 Breusch-Pagan / chi2(1) = 0.28 Cook-Weisberg Prob > chi2 = test for 0.5956 heteroskedasticit y vif 8.69 F 0.000 0.000 0.000 Wooldridge test Prob > F = for 0.2035 autocorrelation in panel data Prob>chi2 = Hausman test 0.2495 4.1.5. Result of expert assessment Experts' assessment seems to support the quantitative analysis that exports lead growth. Exports seem to have contributed to the growth in volume, such as the growth of value added and output of the province, tax contributions to the budget; In addition, exports also promote the role of resources and potential of labor and resources of the province. Through the opinion of experts, the impact of exports on growth is explained more clearly. 4.2. ANALYSIS IMPACT OF EXPORT ON ECONOMIC STRUCTURE TRANSFER IN KHANH HOA PROVINCE 4.2.1. Some evidence on the impact of exports on economic structure through descriptive statistics Theoretically, according to Engel's consumption theory, a change in the consumption structure leads to a change in the production structure. Accordingly, the structure of exported goods and services will change according to the consumption tastes of the import market. In the context of fierce competition in
15 the global market, the export structure of countries has always been adjusted accordingly to increase competitiveness. This will affect the structure of manufacturing industries to change. 4.2.2. Models and methods of impact estimation This section will use the methods Bui Quang Binh (2016) and Nguyen Hong Quang (2019) and equation (28) detailed in section 2.2.3.2 to develop and convert into equation (28.1) below. Here, X in equation (28) will include two export variables-gex and urbanization level - urban. Rateldnnit = β0 + β1lnYit + β2 lnkit + β3gexit + β3urbanit + εit (28.1) lny = β0 + β1glit + β2lncit + it (28.2) 4.2.3 Data and definitions of variables 4.2.4 Estimated results First, the study will consider the stationarity of the data over time at the current power time (zero delay) and give statistically significant results. That is, reach the stationarity at the current time. The results show that the variable gex has negative values in all estimation methods, which implies that when other variables remain constant, exports increase, the proportion of labor in agriculture decreases or the proportion of labor in agriculture decreases. Non-agricultural sectors such as industry and services will increase. That is, export growth promotes economic restructuring of Khanh Hoa province. This result is similar to the research result of Nguyen Hong Quang (2019) with the case of Quang Nam province. The value of the variable lny is also negative in all methods. This result shows that when larger economic scale has a positive effect on economic restructuring, this is also consistent with economic theory and practice. The regression value of urban variable is negative in all methods. This implies that the higher the urbanization level of the provinces, the more it will promote economic restructuring. Particularly, the variable invested capital – lnk has a positive value in all methods. This implies that the more investment in the local economy, the more limited the reduction in the rate of labor reduction in agriculture. That is, investment in economic growth may have increased the use of machinery in strong non-agricultural industries, which will reduce the need for labor.
16 Table 4.2 The estimation results Phương pháp ước lượng REM - OLS REM 3SLS IV(2SLS) Biến phụ thuộc - rateldnn gex -3.77*** -3.766*** -3.803*** -3.72*** (0.26) (0.190) (0.543) (0.25) lny -4.92*** -4.920** -4.896*** -4.36** (1.23) (1.517) (1.265) (1.53) lnk 0.37** 0.373* 0.366** 0.36** (0.11) (0.156) (0.140) (0.11) urban -0.298** -0.298* -0.302** -0.29*** (0.09) (0.104) (0.100) (0.08) Hằng số 87.04*** 87.036*** 87.508*** 84.89*** (5.75) (3.798) (8.433) (5.95) R – sq 0.8863 0.8729 0.8745 0.8950 Breusch-Pagan / 0.3007 Cook-Weisberg test for heteroskedasticity vif 1.62 5.07 Durbin-Watson 1.189387 1.4465867 N 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Prob>F 50 50 50 50 Wooldridge test for 0.1876 autocorrelation in panel data Hausman test 0.3273 4.2.5. Result of expert assessment The assessment of experts seems to have supported the above quantitative analysis that export plays an important role in the process of economic restructuring in Khanh Hoa province. The results from the experts also imply that increasing export activities according to market demand will lead to changes in economic structure. 4.3. ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF EXPORT ON POVERTY REDUCTION IN KHANH HOA PROVINCE 4.3.1. Some evidence on the impact of exports on poverty reduction through descriptive statistics The analysis in section 4.1.1. and 4.1.2. provided descriptive statistical evidence on the impact of exports on employment, labor productivity, output growth, and economic restructuring. The impact of exports on employment growth in recent years at the district level according to evidence from 4.1.1. in which the elasticity coefficient of mountainous localities is higher than that of cities or plains. Section 2.1.2 has
17 shown that where the poverty rate is high or the poor are concentrated are the districts of Khanh Vinh, Dien Khanh and Khanh Son. Thus, more jobs are created in these districts, which will create opportunities for the poor to escape poverty. Also in this section 4.1.1, the elasticity of exports to local labor productivity at district level (Khanh Vinh, Dien Khanh and Khanh Son) is higher than that of other regions. When the labor productivity of these localities is higher, the income of workers including the poor here is also higher. This is the basis for poverty reduction. 4.3.2. Models and methods of estimation Povertyit = β0 + β1gexit + β2lnyit + β3lncit + β4urbanit + εit (30) Model (30) is used to estimate OLS (Pooled OLS). lny = β0 + β1lnkit + β2glit + εit (4) gex = β0 + β1lncit + β2lnpopuit + εit (5) Equation (4) is determined because according to the neoclassical growth theory output depends on labor and capital. Equation (5) is determined since exports depend on domestic consumption and population size. 4.3.3. Data and definitions of variables 4.3.4 Estimated results The estimated results are presented in Table 4.12. The estimation methods are all statistically significant and can be used for evaluation. This result shows that in recent years, export growth has had an impact on poverty improvement (poverty reduction). This result also supports the research results of Huyen Thi Thanh NGUYEN, Chau Van NGUYEN, Cong Van NGUYEN (2020). With that comes the larger the size of the economy – growth has a poverty-reducing effect as the result of Karim, Noor Al-Huda Abdul; Ahmad, Shabbir (2009). Increasing the population's consumption rate has the effect of improving poverty because it seems to increase consumption demand, giving the poor the opportunity to do business and consume their products. Meanwhile, accelerated urbanization exacerbates poverty. Perhaps urbanization leads to a stronger gap between rich and poor as well as limited improvement of rural infrastructure.
18 Table 4.3 The estimation results Phương pháp ước lượng REM REM - 3SLS - OLS IV(2SLS) GMM Biến phụ thuộc - poverty gex -1.030*** -1.030*** -1.050*** -1.256*** (0.063) (0.064) (0.069) (0.118) Lny -1.983*** -1.983*** -1.974*** -2.848*** (0.35) (0.358) (0.358) (0.653) urban 0.066** 0.066** 0.062** 0.046* (0.022) (0.023) (0.024) (0.027( lnc -0.053* -0.053* -0.056* -0.059 (0.031) (0.032) (0.031) (0.038) Hằng số 16.311*** 16.311*** 16.650*** 21.537*** (1.530) (1.532) (1.598) (2.938) R - sq 0.9109 0.9181 0.9181 0.8779 Breusch-Pagan / Điều chỉnh Cook-Weisberg bằng lệnh test for robust heteroskedasticity vif 1.59 5.73 Durbin-Watson 1.104249 1.2192675 N 50 50 50 50 Prob>F 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Wooldridge test 0.1343 for autocorrelation in panel data Hausman test 0.1436 4.3.5. Evaluation results according to expert opinion Through expert opinions, the following implications are found. The most increased export activities are focused on the group of agricultural products that have a good impact on the agricultural and rural areas - where the poor live and work mainly moderately. generate output for agricultural products and create jobs for the poor. 4.4 GENERAL ASSESSMENT ON THE IMPACT OF EXPORTS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH From the above results, the following conclusions can be drawn: 4.4.1. Positive impacts: Firstly, the increase in the size and speed of export value of Khanh Hoa province in recent years has strongly affected the economic growth of the province. This effect is reflected in both aggregate supply and aggregate demand. First, the value of exported goods as a part of creating an increase in aggregate demand of the economy, then exports as a source of cumulative contributions to