Summary of PhD thesis in Agricultural Economics: Sustainable agricultural development in the conditions of high-speed industrialization and modernization - A case study of Vinh Phuc province

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INTRODUCTION impact of industrialization and modernization on sustainable agricultural development in terms of achievements, limitations and causes. 1. The necessity of the research topic

Thirdly, researching and proposing some views, directions and solutions to promote sustainable agricultural development in the conditions of high-speed industrialization and modernization in Vinh Phuc province until 2030. 3. Object and scope of the study 3.1. Research object

The main research object of the thesis is economic, organizational and policy issues for sustainable agricultural development in provinces and cities in the conditions of high- speed industrialization and modernization in theory and in Vinh Phuc province in practical terms. 3.2. Scope of the study

Vietnam is an agricultural country, with 64.26% of the population living in rural areas (2019) and heavily dependent on agriculture. Therefore, the issue of agricultural development, especially sustainable agricultural development to meet the needs of agricultural products, raising income for farmers, has always been respected by the Party and the State and is one of the top goals in industrialization and modernization process. In Vietnam, industrialization and modernization process has been making a comprehensive and profound impact on agriculture in different directions. On the one hand, that process has created opportunities; on the other hand, it also creates a negative impact on the farmer's life, the society and the environment ... and it needs to be analyzed thoroughly the opportunities, limiting downside in a proactive way to avoid causing bad socio-economic harm to agriculture, thereby helping agriculture to develop sustainably. In terms of content: The thesis researches sustainable agricultural development in a broad sense, including three groups of industries: agriculture, forestry and fishery in the conditions of high-speed industrialization and modernization. In terms of space: The thesis is in Vinh Phuc province - a locality with a high rate of industrialization and modernization, including agriculture in both rural and urban areas.

In terms of time: Assessing the current situation of Vinh Phuc agriculture, where the industrialization and modernization rate is high, since the re-establishment of the province from 1997 to 2019, with focus from 2010 to 2019; identifying goals, tasks and solutions for sustainable agricultural development in relation to the change of affecting factors until the year 2030. 4. Reseach questions

Question 1: How is the sustainable development of agriculture in the conditions of high-speed industrialization and modernization different from that of sustainable agriculture under normal industrialization and modernization conditions?

Vinh Phuc is a province with diverse terrain, in which the rural population accounts for 86%. Over the past years, Vinh Phuc's socio-economy has made remarkable changes. The economic growth rate over the periods has always been at a high level; especially there is an economic growth year of over 20%. In the period from 1997 to 2018, the economic growth rate (GRDP) reached 14.9% per year, the budget revenue was 10,000 billion VND. In 2019, the industrial ratio accounted for 48.34%; The scale of GRDP at current prices of the province reached 118.4 trillion VND, the GRDP value per capita reached 102.5 million VND per year (4,460 USD), 1.5 times higher than the national average. Therefore, Vinh Phuc is recognized as one of the localities with high speed of industrialization and modernization. However, in addition to the positive impacts, the rapid development of industrialization and modernization has created the unsustainable development of agriculture, diversifying the rich and the poor, living conditions, living environment ... among the rural and urban economic sectors and industrial zones. From the above fact, the author has chosen the topic "Sustainable agricultural development in the conditions of high-speed industrialization and modernization process - Case study of Vinh Phuc province" as the doctoral thesis. 2. Research objectives 2.1. General objective Question 2: What lessons at home and abroad can be applied to sustainable agricultural development in the conditions of high-speed industrialization and modernization, Question 3: How is the reality of sustainable agricultural development in Vinh Phuc province - a locality with high-speed industrialization and modernization happening? What are its’ achievements, limitations and causes? Question 4: What key issues should be addressed to promote sustainable agricultural

development in Vinh Phuc province until 2030? 5. Methodology of the thesis 5.1. Approaching method

Therefore, Vinh Phuc is recognized as one of the localities with high speed of industrialization and modernization. However, in addition to the positive impacts, the rapid development of the unsustainable industrialization and modernization has created development of agriculture, diversifying the rich and the poor, living conditions, living environment ... among the economic sector. rural versus urban economic areas and industrial zones. From the above fact, I have chosen the topic "Sustainable agricultural development in the conditions of high-speed industrialization and modernization - Case study of Vinh Phuc province" as my doctoral thesis. 2.2. Detailed objectives - Systemizing approach: The thesis considers agriculture a part of the economy, a system in which the agricultural sectors have the close relationships with others of the national economy. With that approach, the thesis not only studies the sustainable development of agriculture but also studies them in the development of other industries, especially in the process of industrialization and modernization of economic sectors of the high-speed national economy.

Firstly, systematizing and establishing a scientific basis for sustainable agricultural development in provinces and cities in the conditions of high-speed industrialization and modernization, which clarify the impact of industrialization and modernization on sustainable development of agriculture.

Secondly, assessing the status of sustainable agricultural development in Vinh Phuc province - a locality with a high rate of industrialization and modernization; pointing out the - Approaching from macro to micro: The thesis approaches sustainable agricultural development according to the implementation organization. With this approach, the contents of sustainable agricultural development are implemented at two levels: macro and micro. At the macro level, the dissertation goes into depth about the oriented functions of state management of economy in agriculture. At the micro level, the thesis focuses on the functions and roles of households, farms, cooperatives and businesses in sustainable agricultural

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development through agricultural business activities.

- Method of economic statistics: The thesis uses the method of statistical analysis (disaggregation, graphization of data); comparison method (comparing coefficients, comparing relative numbers, absolute numbers, average numbers; comparison between periods, ...) to analyze the current state of sustainable agricultural development in Vinh Phuc province through different periods. - Approaching according to the principle of Cause and Effect: Sustainable agricultural development with the nature of activities as the cause, the attainment of sustainability is considered the result of those influencing factors. This approach is presented in the chapter. 5.2. Methods of collecting information 5.2.1. Methods of collecting information

- Prediction method: The method is used in orienting models and directions of sustainable agricultural development, especially for forecasting conditions for the development, from which to suggest orientations and solutions to promote sustainable agricultural development in Vinh Phuc province until 2030. - Method of participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA): Used through discussions, interviews

The thesis organized the survey by the method of random sampling of sustainable agricultural development in Vinh Phuc province in the form of information collection and interview surveys. Specifically: - Qualitative research: + Interview with leaders of commune and district levels; + Interviewing farmers in the surveyed area - Investigation and quantitative research + Selection of surveyed areas: According to the method of sampling survey, the thesis selects communes and districts representing 3 mountainous, midland and delta regions (Song Lo - mountainous, Tam Duong - midland, Vinh Tuong and Binh Xuyen – delta regions). In each district, the thesis selects 2 communes with high degree of industrialization and modernization to investigate and research.

Practical basis - Experience in sustainable agricultural development under high-speed industrialization and modernization at home and abroad - Lessons for sustainable agricultural development in Vinh Phuc province

Theoretical basis - Define research objectives, subjects, scope and methods - Overview of works related to the thesis topic - Concept, the need for sustainable agricultural development - Content of substainable agricultural development - Industrialization, modernization and sustainable agricultural development in the conditions of high-speed industrialization and modernization. - Evaluate the level of sustainable development under high-speed industrialization and modernization. + Sample size: (1) Interviewing 80 local district and commune officials, of which 40 people at the district level (leaders of the Department of Agricultural and Rural Development, Department of Natural Resources and Environment, Farmer's Union ... ), 40 people at the commune level (officials of the commune government and political organizations of the commune). (2) Interviewing the head of household and farm owner – 30 people in each commune, total is 240 people. (3) Investigating 30 households and farms owners in each commune, total is 240 households and farms owners.

Achievements in sustainable agricultural development

+ Methods of data collection: Using questionnaires to collect data and using enumerators to directly interview with primary interview questionnaires;

Orientation and solutions for agricultural development in Vinh Phuc province in the years 2021-2030 (the period of continuing to accelerate industrialization and modernization

+ Form of collecting basic information of communes and districts in the area of

investigation and interview. 5.2.2. Methods of processing and analyzing data

Limitations, causes, and problems that need to be addressed

Collected data was synthesized through SPSS software. From the processing results, the thesis synthesizes the tables, designs the figures, charts and diagrams according to the data and the contents of the previously analysis outline. 5.3. Methods of processing information with farmers, local officials ... 5. Research diagram of the thesis Analyzing the status of sustainable agricultural development in Vinh Phuc province - Analyzing the natural, socio-economic conditions and the speed of industrialization and modernization in Vinh Phuc province affecting the sustainable agricultural development ... - Situation of sustainable agricultural development in Vinh Phuc province 2010-2019 - Evaluation of sustainable agricultural development Vinh Phuc under high- speed industrialization and modernization

6. New contributions of the thesis

Collected data was aggregated through SPSS software; synthesized into tables, designed into figures, charts. In particular, the thesis used a regression function to analyze the relationship between the business results of the surveyed household with the area of natural land (S), the total value of assets for production (TS), production costs (CP), level of environmental pollution caused by agricultural production (ON), degree of pollution effects and number of businesses in the household (SNN). 5.4. Methods of analyzing information

- Theoretical contributions: The thesis has built a general theoretical framework for sustainable agricultural development, from which updated, supplemented and concretized the theoretical basis for the analysis and evaluation of sustainable agricultural development in the conditions of high-speed industrialization and modernization in Vietnam, especially in Vinh Phuc province, with the following new points: - Expert method: The expert method is used by the graduate student in collecting and selecting secondary information related to the research topic of the thesis in many sources. Especially, the thesis consulted experts who are scientists at universities, managers in Vinh Phuc province ...

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Chapter 2: Scientific basis for sustainable agricultural development in the conditions of high-speed industrialization and modernization. Chapter 3: Situation of sustainable agricultural development in Vinh Phuc province in the years 2010 - 2019. (1) Sustainable agricultural development is the trend of most countries in the world, including Vietnam. That stems from the characteristics of agriculture, from the preeminence of sustainable agricultural development and from the situation of using resources in agricultural production. Chapter 4: Directions and solutions to promote sustainable agricultural development in Vinh Phuc province in the period of 2021 – 2030

(2) Sustainable agricultural development is implemented at two levels: macro management and agribusiness activities in agribusiness establishments, which contents both with a broad vision over time, space; both shows in detail in each economic activity, technique and agricultural organization.

(3) In the conditions of high-speed industrialization and modernization, sustainable agricultural development is strongly influenced, making a difference and setting specific requirements. High-speed industrialization and modernization have become one of the most powerful factors affecting the sustainable agricultural development; creating a social and economic infrastructure system that spreads to the development of high-tech agriculture in two strong positive and negative directions, which requires full awareness and effective exploitation.

(4) To assess sustainable agricultural development in the conditions of high-speed industrialization and modernization, in addition to the system of indicators on economic, social and environmental sustainability,it also assesses the impact of industrialization, high- speed modernization to agricultural results to clearly see the extent of exploitation or limit those effects.

- Practical contributions: (1) The thesis has summarized experiences in sustainable agricultural development in high-speed industrialized and modernized regions of a number of countries, foreign territories, some localities in the country; drawing lessons that can be applied to sustainable agricultural development in Vinh Phuc province.

(2) Researching the current situation of Vinh Phuc province, the thesis concludes that: the sustainable agricultural development of Vinh Phuc province has been noted in and has achieved initial results. However, many contents of sustainable agricultural development have not been fully implemented, the sustainability is still poor, the positive impacts of high-speed industrialization and modernization have not been fully and effectively exploited; Negative impacts have not been controlled, affecting much the sustainability of agriculture.

(3) To promote the development of high-tech agriculture in Vinh Phuc province in the period of 2021-2030, it is necessary to combine propaganda with strict handling of land and environmental violations affecting sustainable agricultural development; implementation of planning, review of planning and arrangement of production towards sustainable agricultural development; to develop science and technology research and application and accelerate the development of high-tech agriculture; building rural infrastructure systems; renewing and perfecting land policies and solutions; promote training of human resources; market solutions for sustainable agricultural development; strengthen the Party's leadership, state support and management for sustainable agricultural development.

7. Structure of the thesis In addition to the introduction, conclusion, references, appendices ... the thesis is structured into the following 4 chapters: Chapter 1: Overview of works related to the thesis topic researched nationally and internationally.

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CHAPTER II SCIENCE BASIS FOR SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE DEVELOPMENT

CHAPTER I OVERVIEW OF WORKS RELATED TO THE TOPIC OF THESIS RESEARCHED NATIONALLY AND INTERNATIONALLY

IN HIGH-SPEED INDUSTRIALIZATION AND MODERNIZATION CONDITIONS 2.1. Theoretical basis for sustainable agricultural development in the conditions of high- speed industrialization and modernization 2.1.1. Conceptual, the need for sustainable agricultural development

From an overview of the researches on sustainable development and sustainable agricultural development in the world and in Vietnam, the author gives published scientific assessments and issues that need further research, as follows: 1.2.1. Synthesizing the results of published scientific works - The concept of sustainable agricultural development: Sustainable agricultural development is the sum of activities to create agriculture that meets the criteria of sustainable development. Through an overview of the research above, we can draw the following conclusions: Firstly, in the process of industrialization and modernization in the world, there is no country that can take agricultural investment and development lightly.

- The need for sustainable agricultural development is shown on the following aspects. + Characteristics of agricultural production: + Advantages of sustainable agricultural development: * Ensuring to achieve high productivity, quality and output to fully meet the multi- faceted needs of the whole society for agricultural products.

* Creating agricultural products with high quality and safety: * Ensuring the continuous development of resources used in agriculture. * Protecting the environment, combating pollution, creating a healthy production and Secondly, in the industrialization and modernization career in Vietnam, developing sustainable agriculture has been studied in many aspects. From research issues, the authors have given many ways to solve problems for agriculture, determined that agricultural development with a sustainable growth model is the right choice for agricultural restructuring, implementating the Industrialization and modernization of the country, bringing the country's agriculture deeply integrated into the WTO. living environment, building an ecological environment for sustainable development. + The use of resources in agricultural production has been exhausted, but wasteful 2.1.2. Contents of substainable agricultural development

- Planning and allocating the use of resources for agricultural production - Developing a policy system suitable to the requirements of sustainable agricultural Thirdly, in Vietnam, researches on sustainable agricultural development have been interested in recent years. Issues of necessity, content for sustainable agricultural development are quite clear. However, the issue of agricultural development in the impact of influencing factors, especially the impact of industrialization and modernization has not yet been studied. 1.3.2. Issues needed to be continued researching on sustainable agricultural development in localities with high industrialization and modernization rate. development - Selecting the appropriate structure of crops and animals on the basis of specialization with integrated development in each region, in each agricultural business establishment. In order to develop sustainable agriculture locally in the conditions of high-speed industrialization and modernization, it is necessary to focus on researching on the following issues: - Selecting and using scientific farming methods - Using economically and regenerating resources in agriculture

2.1.3. Industrialization, modernization and sustainable agricultural development in provinces and cities with high-speed of industrialization and modernization 2.1.3.1. The concept of industrialization, modernization and high-speed industrialization and modernization - The concept of Firstly, it is necessary to systematize and clarify the theoretical basis for sustainable agricultural development in the province and city. In theoretical research, the issues of sustainable development and sustainable agricultural development need to be specified and clarified from the perspective of economic, technical and organizational measures on both the macro and micro. In particular, it clearly shows the impact of influencing factors, in which focus on the negative impact of high-speed industrialization and modernization on sustainable agricultural development.

industrialization and modernization: Industrialization and modernization are a term indicating a process with a lot of organizational, economic and technical activities carried out in order to transform the economy towards an economic model in line with the development trend of society.

Secondly, summarizing the experiences of sustainable agricultural development of some countries, foreign territories and some localities in the country in the conditions of high- speed industrialization and modernization, that can be applied to Vinh Phuc province in the coming years.

- The concept of high-speed industrialization and modernization: High-speed industrialization and modernization are a term indicating the level and time of the implementation of industrialization and modernization of each country, locality or territory with an average level and duration of the common country, locality or region. 2.1.3.2. Characteristics of high-speed industrialization and modernization Thirdly, using the theoretical analytical framework to analyze the status of sustainable agricultural development in Vinh Phuc province. Evaluating the impact of high-speed industrialization and modernization on the sustainable development of agriculture in Vinh Phuc province, drawing out achievements, limitations and problems that need to be solved. Fourthly, the problem posed for the research is to propose orientations and solutions to promote sustainable agricultural development in Vinh Phuc province until 2030. Firstly, to achieve a high speed of industrialization and modernization, countries, localities or territories need to focus on maximum resources to implement activities of industrialization and modernization.

Secondly, the countries with high speed industrialization and modernization are countries with quite synchronous economic and social infrastructure systems; rapid economic transformation according to the model of industrialization and modernization.

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. Secondly, all countries have quite well exploited the positive effects brought about by 2.1.3.3. Impacts and requirements of high-speed industrialization and modernization on sustainable agricultural development industrialization and modernization.

Thirdly, in research countries, the role of the state and the government is reflected in the promulgation of policies to orient and encourage sustainable development of agriculture, such as investment policies, high-tech agricultural development policies ...

The impact of high-speed industrialization and modernization on sustainable agricultural development mainly on the socio-economic infrastructure system created by industrialization and modernization and the high-speed development of the construction industry group and service in their mutuality and competition. 2.1.4. Factors affecting sustainable agricultural development in the conditions of high- speed industrialization and modernization Fourthly, to develop agriculture sustainably, all countries must develop in the direction of exploiting comparative advantages, using resources effectively and economically, especially natural resources.

Fifthly, although at different levels, the countries in which the thesis researches are focused on environmental issues, dealing quite well with negative impacts caused by high industrialization and modernization, in which the issue of High-tech agricultural development plans and issues that have been summarized have shown quite clearly.

In addition to the direct and strong impact of industrialization and modernization, especially high-speed industrialization and modernization, the development of sustainable agriculture is also influenced by many other factors, such as: (1) Factors on natural conditions (weather, climate, soil, biological resources ...); (2) Socio-economic factors (human resources, scientific and technological progress in agriculture, land ownership regime, market, macro policy, ...). The impacts of factors are considered on 2 aspects: positive and negative. 2.1.4. Sustainable agricultural development assessment 2.1.4.1. Assessment method for sustainable agricultural development

Sixthly, most of the research thesis in the country focuses on linking and sticking together stages of production, processing and consumption of agricultural products; forming value chain of agricultural products. As a result, agricultural production not only solves the output problem, but also creates conditions for stable agricultural product consumption, and enhances the added value of agricultural products. - Lessons learned from local experiences Firstly, local authorities have initially paid attention to sustainable agricultural development.

The assessment of sustainable agricultural development is expressed through the results of sustainable development or the degree and level of achievement of agriculture in terms of sustainability. That assessment is through two indicator systems, which are qualitative and quantitative criteria, according to economic, social and environmental aspects of sustainable development. 2.1.4.2. The indicators to evaluate the level of sustainable agricultural development Secondly, the localities all pay attention to the relationship between sustainable agricultural development in the conditions of industrialization and modernization taking place at a high speed. There are some active implementation activities but also many passive activities, so the exploitation capacity is not high.

Thirdly, localities are aware of the role of hi-tech agricultural development to sustainable agricultural development and have solutions and policies to encourage high-tech agricultural development at various levels.

Fourthly, localities are interested in restructuring the local agricultural economy in the direction of exploiting potentials and comparative advantages. The localities have actively supported farmers in agricultural restructuring and production conversion in rural areas. Fifthly, localities have focused on solving problems after agricultural land acquisition of farm households due to the impact of industrialization and modernization.

Indicators of economic sustainability (growth rate of production value, total product created in the area, criteria for sustainable use of resources…); Social sustainability (the level of contribution of rural residents to the construction of a new countryside, rate of trained agricultural and rural workers, proportion of poor households, proportion of agricultural and rural workers have employment ...) and environmental sustainability (degree of environmental improvement in soil, air, landscape ...) 2.2. Practical basis for sustainable agricultural development in the provinces and cities with a high rate of industrialization and modernization 2.2.1. Experience in sustainable agricultural development in localities with high-speed of industrialization and modernization of a number of countries and territories around the world The PhD student has learned experiences in sustainable agricultural development from Sixthly, localities have focused on solving environmental problems, monitoring and handling pollution from industry and agriculture due to the impact of industrialization and modernization of the industry.

countries such as Thailand, China, Japan, and Israel 2.2.2. Experience in sustainable agricultural development of some localities with high speed of industrialization and modernization in the country The PhD student has learned experiences in sustainable agricultural development of

some localities in the country such as Hanoi City, Lam Dong Province, Ho Chi Minh City. 2.2.3. Lessons for Vinh Phuc from researching experiences in sustainable agricultural development of some localities at home and abroad - Lessons from local experiences abroad Firstly, in order to develop sustainable agriculture, it is necessary to promote the role of the state management, of the government to agriculture, from planning to building strategies as the basis for sustainable agricultural development when putting in actual implementation.

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3.1.1.6. Characteristics of mineral resources

Vinh Phuc is a province in a transition position between mountainous and plain, so it is poor in mineral resources. The minerals of commercial value in the area only include a few types such as construction stone, kaolin, peat, but the reserves are not large and the exploitation conditions are limited. 3.1.1.7. Characteristics of biological resources CHAPTER III REAL SITUATION OF SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE DEVELOPMENT IN VINH PHUC PROVINCE FROM 2010 TO 2019 3.1. The natural, socio-economic characteristics and the rate of industrialization and modernization of Vinh Phuc affect the sustainable agricultural development 3.1.1. Characteristics of nature 3.1.1.1. Geographical location characteristics

Vinh Phuc is a locality with a rich plant group originating from tropical to subtropical and temperate, especially temperate resources due to the weather regime and climate of Tam Dao mountainous region. Tropical crops include rice, maize, soybean, banana, and custard- apple ... Sub-tropical crops are tea, oranges, tangerines, and grapefruit. The temperate crops include: potatoes, cabbage vegetables, chayote, medicinal plants ... 3.1.1.8. Characteristics of tourism resources Vinh Phuc belongs to the Northern key economic region, was re-established in 1997. The North of Vinh Phuc province borders Thai Nguyen and Tuyen Quang provinces, the West borders Phu Tho province, the East and the South borders the capital Hanoi. Vinh Yen City, the administrative, cultural and economic center of Vinh Phuc province, is 50 km from Hanoi capital and 25 km from Noi Bai international airport.

Vinh Phuc has great potentials for natural and humanistic tourism development. There is Tam Dao with beautiful natural landscape, fresh and cool climate. Especially, Tam Dao National Park and the surrounding areas belong to primary forest with many species of flora and fauna preserved relatively intact.

The development of tourism not only creates a high economic growth rate, but also creates a consumer market with high purchasing power, creating the sustainable development of agriculture with many specific products according to the temperate climate, tropical and sub-tropical areas of the Province. 3.1.2. Socio-economic characteristics 3.1.2.1. Characteristics of human resources

In terms of quantity: The average population as of December 31, 2019 is 1,154.8 thousand people, of which men is about 575.5 thousand people (accounting for 49.6%), and women is about 579.4 thousand (accounting for 50. 4%).

Figure 3.1: Administrative map of Vinh Phuc province In terms of quality: The human resource of Vinh Phuc province is quite high quality. The percentage of students graduating from all levels is 95 - 99.0%, depending on the educational level. Vinh Phuc people are fond of learning and have a sense of exploration, innovation and creativity. 3.1.2.2. Cultural characteristics (Source: Google Map)

3.1.1.2. Characteristics of weather and climate

Vinh Phuc is a province in the Red River Delta, so it has a typical climate of the region, with a climate divided into 2 distinct seasons. The rainy season is from May to October and the dry season is from November to April next year. 3.1.1.3. Topographic characteristics

Vinh Phuc is a province with many cultural values, associated with the history of the struggle to build and defend the country. Vinh Phuc land is famous for the famous generals and national heroes such as: Hai Ba Trung, Tran Nguyen Han, Nguyen Danh Phuong, Nguyen Thai Hoc. During the war against the French, in Vinh Phuc, there were many glorious victories such as the Xuan Trach victory, Tran Hung Dao campaign. During the war against the US, the province was the place where many American planes were shot down, with typical military heroes such as Tran Cu, Nguyen Viet Xuan, ... 3.1.3. Characteristics of the scale and speed of industrialization and modernization in Vinh Phuc province 3.1.3.1. Socio-economic infrastructure system characteristics Vinh Phuc has a diverse topography, with three types of terrain: mountainous terrain, hill terrain and plain terrain, in which Vinh Phuc province is divided into 3 regions with differernt levels and contents of social-economic development. 3.1.1.4. Characteristics of water resources Water resources of Vinh Phuc province are in the form of surface water and groundwater resources. - Characteristics of transportation infrastructure: Vinh Phuc has a fairly developed transport network with 3 types of transportation: road, railway, river traffic and economic exchange between localities in the province and outside. 3.1.1.5. Characteristics of land resources

- Characteristics of electrical infrastructure system: Vinh Phuc is one of the provinces located in a favorable area to supply electricity from the national grid, with the transmission and distribution system being planned and invested synchronously in order to ensure The land group with the largest area is red and yellow soil, accounting for 37.10% of the total natural area of the province, followed by alluvial soil with 32,638 ha, accounting for 26.50%.

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favorable conditions, provide sufficient demand for the development of industrial zones of the province. - Characteristics of water supply and drainage, wastewater and waste treatment infrastructure: Secondly, Vinh Phuc's natural conditions are diverse, with an abundant land fund, specific weather conditions ... quite favorable for the development of agriculture on a fairly large scale, ensuring sustainable agricultural development even if the impacts of nature and the market economy.

Thirdly, Vinh Phuc has abundant human resources in quantity and high quality. Fourthly, Vinh Phuc province has a highly developed socio-economic infrastructure system - the products of the industrialization and modernization process. Fifthly, Vinh Phuc is a province with a high growth rate and a large budget revenue + Regarding water supply and drainage system: Vinh Phuc has great potential for water resources. Natural surface water and underground water are plentiful enough to supply for industrial production, agriculture and irrigation in the area. However, the clean water supply system for daily life and industrial development has not yet received a major investment. source; with the attention of all levels and branches to agricultural development.

+ For the waste treatment system: Vinh Phuc province has built a number of waste treatment stations into microbiological fertilizers, but most of them are still treated simply by incineration or one-time burial. Sixthly, the process of building a new countryside has created a socio-economic transformation in rural areas, especially the rural infrastructure system, creating new functions for sustainable agricultural development and international economic integration. 3.1.3.1. Negative impacts on sustainable agricultural development - Characteristics of the information and communication network: The postal service

network has been widely developed throughout the province to meet basic postal services. 3.1.2.2. Characteristics of industrialization, modernization and socio-economic development Firstly, the negative impact of the regime of heat, rain, and wind adversely affects the growth of crops and cattles; the bad quality of the land fund and the terrain affects the productivity of plants and animals;

Secondly, the fragmentation, the per capita area of the land is low, adversely affect the process of applying science and technology to agricultural production and shifting agriculture to commodity production, ... trends in sustainable agricultural development. Thirdly, the quality of human resources compared to the requirement of sustainable agricultural development has not been met.

Fourthly, the high speed of industrialization and modernization has negative impacts on the sustainable agricultural development of the province due to shrinking agricultural land, job loss, agricultural environment pollution, and agricultural infrastructure is divided when planning to develop industrial zones and clusters on the existing infrastructure system. Fifthly, the demand for agricultural products is increasing while the agricultural land - Regarding the speed of industrialization and modernization: Vinh Phuc is a province that has made very rapid progress in building industrial zones and attracting investment, especially FDI. Vinh Phuc has planned the development of 18 industrial parks, with a scale of 5,228 hectares. The occupancy rate of industrial parks that have cleared ground is 72.09%. By November 2020, the number of valid projects investing in industrial zones is 377 projects, including 66 DDI projects with a total investment of 13,766.1 billion VND and 311 FDI projects with a total investment capital of 4,451.19 million USD. In which, there are 319 projects in production, accounting for 84.6% of the total number of projects; 20 projects are implementing construction and installation of factory equipment; 33 new projects that are doing project implementation procedures; 5 FDI projects are in the category of rescheduling, are completing the termination procedures, accounting for 1.3% of the total number of projects. fund is decreasing due to the impact of high industrialization and modernization. Sixthly, the attraction of young, healthy and high-quality workers to industrial and

The province's FDI economic sector has a great impact on socio-economic development; which has created jobs for over 3 thousand workers directly in factories. As a result, the agriculture sector decreased rapidly from 81.4% in 2001 to 55.9% in 2019.

service zones reduces the quality of agricultural labor force rapidly. 3.2. Situation of sustainable agricultural development in Vinh Phuc province for the period 2010 - 2019 3.2.1. Overview of agricultural development in Vinh Phuc province in the period of 2010 - 2019

- Regarding economic growth: After the re-establishment of Vinh Phuc province (1997), the socio-economic of Vinh Phuc province had a new face, due to the promotion of its proximity to Hanoi capital. Growth rates are consistently high among the Red River Delta and the Northern Key Economic Region, 2 times higher than the national average. Vinh Phuc's economic growth over the past years has been associated with a strong increase in industry and services; especially the foreign invested sector Vinh Phuc is a locality with a high rate of industrialization and modernization, but in Vinh Phuc, agriculture is still a large-scale industry, a large proportion in the overall economic structure of the province, but the growth rate slows down in the recent years due to limited resources, the impact of natural disasters and epidemics, as shown in Table 3.1. Table 3.1: Growth of production value of agriculture, forestry and fishery sector during 2010 – 2019

Criteria 2010 2011 2015 2016 2018 2019 Unit:%, billion VND, compared to 2010 2016 - 2019 2011 - 2015 Total - Regarding the economic structure and economic structure transformation: The economic structure of Vinh Phuc province has shifted quite quickly. In particular, the economic structure of Vinh Phuc, which reflects the characteristics of the locality with foreign investment, is rapidly increasing in proportion. 3.1.3. Assessment of impacts of natural socio-economic conditions on sustainable agricultural development in Vinh Phuc province 3.1.3.1. Positive impacts on sustainable agricultural development

9,594.3 105.3 667.6 9,291.4 110.0 704.0 1.Agriculture 2. Forestry 3. Fishery 7,778.8 8,132.7 9,389.6 9,643.3 10,367.3 10,105.0 8,686.3 8,953.3 7,298.9 7,564.5 76.6 614.5 3.83 3.54 -2.00 9.54 73.7 495.0 71.9 631.4 79.5 400.4 1.57 1.24 12.82 4.63 (Source: Vinh Phuc Department of Agriculture and Rural Development) Firstly, Vinh Phuc province has a geo-economic position as a gateway to the capital, so it is very convenient for the absorption of science and technology, accessing to new and advanced materials for production and consumption output - the essential conditions for sustainable agricultural development.

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(Source: The author's survey results in 2020) 3.2.2.2. Situation of building a system of guidelines and policies in line with the requirements of sustainable agricultural development The economic structure of the agriculture, forestry and fishery sectors has shifted towards the progressive trend, with a decrease in the proportion of agriculture, an increase in the proportion of fisheries, but slowly, as shown in Table 3.2.

Table 3.2: The structure of production value of the entire agriculture, forestry and fishery sector during 2010 – 2019 Unit: million dong, current price 2019 2010 2015 2016 Criteria Value % Value % Value % Value % Total 7,778.8 100.0 11,901.3 100.0 12,498.4 100.0 13,370.6 100.0 1. Agriculture 7.299,0 93,83 10.904,8 91,62 11.511,6 92,09 12.201,4 91,0 Regarding the general socio-economic development, Vinh Phuc province has given guidelines and implemented strategic policy issues such as: (1) Thoroughly exploit all internal resources in the province to make the first step for attracting outside capital. (2) Supporting investors in site clearance, training and labor resource referral. (3) Building and developing industrial clusters and parks in the area. (4) Implementing industrial and agricultural promotion activities ... The guidelines and policies are quite clear in socio-economic innovation and have had certain impacts on agriculture and rural areas. 3.2.2.3. Situation of choosing the appropriate structure of crops and animals in each region in each agricultural business establishment 2. Forestry 79.5 1.03 95.4 0.81 100.1 0.82 160.3 0.14 3. Fishery 400.4 5.14 901.0 7.57 886.7 7.09 1,009.0 7.54 (Source: Vinh Phuc Department of Agriculture and Rural Development, author's calculations in 2019)

3.2.2. Actual implementation of the content of sustainable agricultural development 3.2.2.1. Situation of planning and allocation of resources for agricultural production

In fact, Vinh Phuc has implemented the Provincial Agricultural Restructuring Program and achieved quite good results. According to the report on agricultural restructuring, Vinh Phuc province has evaluated: “The internal restructuring of the agricultural sector in the period from 2011 to 2015 is in the right direction, in which the farming industry has decreased from 45.73% in 2010 to 38.48% in 2015 and 39.01% in 2017; livestock industry increased from 48.59% in 2010 to 52.15% in 2015 and 51.55% in 2017; corresponding to the service sector increased from 5.68% in 2010 to 9.37% in 2015 and 9.44% in 2017. Livestock has really become the main production sector in agriculture. However, this level of transformation until 2015 will only reach 87.95% of the approved plan until 2015, in 2017 it will reach 84.7% compared to the approved plan up to 2020 ”. 3.2.2.4. Situation of using scientific and reasonable cultivation and farming methods

On 3rd March 2011, the People's Committee of Vinh Phuc province issued Decision No. 588 / QD-UBND, on the approval of the Planning for agricultural, forestry and fishery development of Vinh Phuc province to 2020, with a vision to 2030, with the basic orientation and objective is to promote agricultural economics restructuring on the basis of prioritizing investment in high-efficient seedlings; consider the application of high technology and the introduction of genetically modified crops into production as a breakthrough in agricultural development; increase the proportion of husbandry and cultivation. - For the crop industry: with the motto of transforming agricultural production from breadth to depth, mechanisms and policies to support the development of crop production have a positive impact on the productivity and quality of staple planting crops. The value of crop production is increasing day by day.

- For the livestock industry: To change from the traditional small-scale husbandry to industrial and semi-industrial husbandry; in which special attention is paid to the improvement of seed quality; treatment of livestock wastes; prevention and control of epidemics for livestock herds and planning of concentrated breeding areas. - For forestry: There has been a selection of cultivars suitable to the ecological conditions of each region. - For fisheries: There has been a change in the arrangement of different types of However, due to the dominance of interests, the sectors implementing the planning have arranged resources in a way that is conducive to the sector they are in charge of. The implementation of the plan has not been very drastic in dealing with conflicts of interests; implementation of the planning has not yet detailed to the grassroots level, especially farmer households. Therefore, a number of planning issues of sectors have affected the planning of agricultural, forestry and fishery development in the province negatively, affecting the development of agriculture such as: Planning for industrial zones occupied good areas of agriculture, creating pollution for agricultural development. Sustainable agricultural development has been severely affected. fisheries, making use of aquatic resources in lakes, ponds and lagoons. 3.2.2.5. Situation of using and regenerating resources in agriculture

- For the crop sector: Vinh Phuc has accelerated the process of accumulation and concentration of land through the implementation of land consolidation and exchange, creating conditions for rational and efficient land use.

- For the livestock industry: Currently, the whole province has about 110,000 households raising cattle; 43,000 households with hygienic breeding facilities and Biogas livestock waste treatment systems are 43,000 households, accounting for 39%, the number of households without a livestock waste treatment system accounts for 61%.

- For forestry: The province has taken advantage of the advantages of planting medicinal plants under the canopy of Tam Dao forest to exploit resources in forestry, towards sustainable development of the province.

Figure 3.2: Impact assessment of industrialization and modernization from planning to sustainable agricultural development by district officials

Chart 3.1: Impact assessment of industrialization and modernization from planning to sustainable agricultural development of surveyed commune officials

- For fisheries: The utilization of water bodies through expansion of aquaculture in the

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Wrong standards T-test(P-value) Variables Estimated coefficient -0.052 0.088 0.559 Ln(S) 0.431 0.149 0.009 Ln(TS) space of water bodies has increased productivity and aquaculture output in the province. 3.3. Evaluation of sustainable agricultural development in Vinh Phuc in the period of 2010 - 2019 3.3.1. Evaluating the impact of industrialization and modernization on sustainable agricultural development in Vinh Phuc province 0.507 0.116 0 Ln(CP) 0.098 0.077 0.217 ON 0.176 0.07 0.02 KV 0.228 0.095 0.026 SNN 1.686 0.707 0.027 Constant

Equation extracted from the regression results table: Ln(TR) = 1.686 – 0.052Ln(S) + 0.507Ln(CP) + 0.431Ln(TS) + 0.098ON + 0.176KV The impact of industrialization and modernization on the sustainable agricultural development of the province is shown in both positive and negative directions. The survey results show that: 22% of commune-level officials and 15% of district-level cadres assessed the positive impact of industrialization and modernization on sustainable agricultural development; 30% of commune officials and 25% of district officials assessed the negative impacts and 48% of commune officials 60% of district officials assessed the impacts in both directions. The assessment of negative impacts increased on officials at commune and district levels in the areas with high levels of industrialization and modernization across the province and between communes within the surveyed districts. + 0.228SNN

Positive effects on agricultural development when creating infrastructure, creating consumer markets, attracting young workers to industrial enterprises, increasing income for local workers ... Negative impacts are evident on the following aspects: job loss for elderly workers and low educational attainment, lack of labors in agricultural activities, land acquisition, pollution affecting agriculture. The assessment level through the survey results is shown to be quite concentrated. The analysis of model results shows that: - Natural land area (S): is the agricultural production area of the household. The estimated coefficient (- 0.052) is not statistically significant with all 3 significance levels of 1%, 5% and 10%. The area of the household is not impacted due to low crop income compared to animal husbandry which is less dependent on land.

3.3.2. Evaluating the impact of industrialization and modernization on sustainable agricultural development through the business results of surveyed farmers

αkeβ1D1+β2D2+…+βiDi. ; including:

α1X2

α2…Xk

To consider the impact of industrialization and modernization on sustainable agricultural development in Vinh Phuc province, the graduate student investigated in detail the activities of farmer households, the main sustainable agricultural producer of Vinh Phuc province; using the econometric model using the least squares regression method (OLS) and the Cobb-Douglas regression model. - Total asset value for production (TS): is the property value of the household used for agricultural production. The estimated coefficient(0.431) is statistically significant at the α = 1% level. This means that provided other factors remain constant as total asset value for production increases by 1%, total household income increases by 0.431%. The positive sign of the coefficients indicates the ratio between the total value of assets for production and total household income. This means that total assets for production have a large and positive impact on the increase in total household income. Increasing investment in households is quite important.

- Production cost (CP): is the amount a household spends on production in the year of the survey. The estimated coefficient of 0.507 is statistically significant at the α = 1% level. Provided that other factors remain constant when production cost increases by 1%, total household income increases by 0.507%. The positive sign of the coefficient indicates the proportion of the household's total cost and income. This means that the costs have a large and positive effect on the increase in total household income. Cobb-Douglas function applied in the thesis research model has the following form: Y = AX1 Y (dependent variable) is the total income of the households A: regression coefficient of the model Xi (i=1,2,3,…,k) is the independent variable α1, α2,…, αk: is the elasticity of the dependent variable for the independent variables β1, β2,…, βi: are the parameters of the qualitative variable (in the thesis, the dummy variable has a value of 0-1). X1, X2,… Xk: respectively are independent variables (considered in the thesis are quantitative variables). D1 ,D2,…, Di: respectively, are the qualitative variables (in the thesis are dummy variables with value 0-1). - Environmental pollution (ON): is the level of pollution mainly caused by the activities of agricultural production. The estimated coefficient is 0.098, not statistically significant with all 3 levels of significance of 1%, 5% and 10%, that is the explanation of no impact (due to dishonest judgment from households, or their inability to realize what constitutes pollution, ...)

From the variable overview table we can write the model in the following form: TR = AS α1TS α2CP α3eβ1ON+β2KV+β3SNN To understand the model and analyze the results, logarization of the two sides has the following form of function: - Region (KV): is a variable reflecting the distance from households to industrial zones, clusters ... The estimated coefficient of 0.176 is statistically significant at the significance level α = 5%. With the same objective factors, when farmer households located near the city center or developed industrial zones, they will have more income than remote farmers. The sign of the coefficient is positive indicating the positive impact.

Ln(TR) = α0 + α1Ln(S) + α2Ln(TS) + α3Ln(CP) + β1ON + β2KV + β3SNN Using regression we get the following results: Table 3.3: Results of regression estimation of explanatory variables - Job categories (SNN): is the number of agricultural occupations in the household, which can be taken into account by crops and livestock. The estimated coefficient is 0.288, which is statistically significant at the α = 5% level. Provided that other factors remain

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Firstly, Vinh Phuc province has focused on promoting research and transfer of scientific and technological advances to agricultural production; exploiting the results of industrialization, modernization and new rural construction, especially rural infrastructure projects (marrow benefits, traffic, electricity ...), improving biological productivity, gradually controlling extreme weather and climate which create a fairly high increase in agriculture.

unchanged, the diversification of household occupations will bring in a greater income than farmers with few occupations. The positive coefficient explains that the positive effect on the total income of households with multiple occupations is greater than that of households with few occupations. The diversification of occupations will use resources more effectively, the risk in household operations will be reduced ... 3.3.2. Evaluating the results of sustainable agricultural development in Vinh Phuc province 3.3.2.1. Evaluating the results of economically sustainable agricultural development

Secondly, Vinh Phuc province has policies to attract investment, especially potential enterprises with a strategy to invest in high-tech agriculture, clean and safe production (project of safe vegetable production in net house according to VietGAP process of Vinh Hung Agriculture, Forestry and Environment Joint Stock Company, Vinh Yen and Trung Kien Tam Duong Agricultural Trade - Service Co., Ltd; concentrated pig slaughter plant investment project of Phat Dat, Phuc Yen production and trade Co., Ltd.) - Evaluation of sustainability: From the picture of agricultural development and the real situation of implementing the contents of sustainable agricultural development, it can be assessed that the agricultural development pathway from 2011 to 2020 of Vinh Phuc province has been step by step towards sustainable development and has achieved certain results. Specifically:

Thirdly, Vinh Phuc has exploited the advantages of high industrialization and modernization, creating capital sources for investment in agriculture, especially policies to support science and technology transfer; encouraging the restructuring of plants and animals; vocational training for rural workers, development of commodity agriculture ... - The growth of agriculture is quite high in terms of both GRDP and production value. Although the proportion of agriculture, forestry and fisheries of the province is decreasing, the agricultural economy still has a high growth, averaging 3.95% per year in the period 2011- 2020; higher than that of neighboring provinces and the national average.

Fourthly, Vinh Phuc has initially focused on trade promotion, connecting agricultural markets, attracting investment from businesses outside the province. Thanks to that, the agricultural products in the province have approached foreign markets and outside the province step by step with high economic efficiency.

- Land productivity in agriculture tended to increase, although the growth was slow. - The quality of some agricultural products has been improved, especially the level of food hygiene and safety. The proportion of rice products of high quality and high economic value has increased; vegetable and fruit production, safe vegetables produced according to VietGap standards, tend to increase. Fifthly, Vinh Phuc discovered the fluctuations in agricultural development practice in general, and sustainable agricultural development in particular. Thanks to that, the negative changes in practice were soon corrected, preventing negative development trends.

- The agricultural economic restructuring takes place on a large scale and follows a trend that is quite suitable for sustainable agricultural development, exploiting the potential and advantages of each region and using resources in a thrifty and efficient manner way of sustainable agricultural development.

- To step by step form a specialized concentrated agricultural production area. This is the trend of exploiting the advantages of each region, creating highly competitive products, saving resources ... in sustainable agricultural business. - Assessment of unsustainability: Firstly, the growth rate of agriculture tends to slow down and be unstable, even in 2019, there will be negative growth due to the impact of the covid epidemic. The sustainable agricultural development has not gone deep, the competitiveness is not high; heavy-duty movement. In particular, agricultural production still depends heavily on weather conditions, climate, especially epidemics and negative impacts of the market.

Figure 3.2: Growth rate of agricultural production value (Source: Vinh Phuc Department of Agriculture and Rural Development, estimated in 2020) Figure 3.1: Agricultural production value in Vinh Phuc province (Source: Vinh Phuc Department of Agriculture and Rural Development, estimated in 2020)

The above results are due to the following main reasons: Secondly, in general, land resources, facilities, labor resources ... in agricultural, forestry and fishery production are still not high. Land productivity and labor productivity in agriculture are still low. Infrastructure systems in agriculture and rural areas, the results of the

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3.3.2.3. Evaluating results of socially sustainable agricultural development New Rural Construction Program have not been focused on exploiting according to the newly built function.

Thirdly, the restructuring of the agricultural economy, the structure of crops and livestock, is only the first step, with a slow speed, and a sustainable trend is not clear. In fact, the transformation programs only reach 50-60% according to plans and are really slow in terms of their relative numbers. There are even a program with very low results such as the program for developing hybrid maize, safe vegetables ... 3.3.2.2. Evaluating the results of environmentally sustainable agricultural development - Evaluation of sustainability: Firstly, the development of industrialization and modernization creates conditions for the rapid growth of the processing industry of agricultural products and foodstuffs, creating an increase in GRDP and production value. Thanks to that, the income of people in Vinh Phuc province in general and the agricultural and rural areas in particular increased. The proportion of medium and rich households in agricultural areas increases, poor households decrease on average by 2-3% per year.

- Sustainability assessment: Agricultural development in Vinh Phuc province has initially paid attention to the environment, from planning and policy development to implementation in practice. That is shown on the following sides: Secondly, through restructuring of crops and animals, employment support programs; especially vocational training programs for rural workers, the quality of the labor force in agriculture and rural areas have been improved.

Firstly, in the agricultural development planning, environmental issues have been focused, many issues related to the environment have been concerned by the public and become the content of fierce debate. Industry and service development has created more jobs, contributing to reduce the pressure on employment of rural workers; step by step implementing the restructuring of labor in rural areas.

- Assessment of unsustainability: + Agricultural production is under pressure to reduce the cultivated land area, creating jobs for rural workers, reducing pollution caused by industrial waste and domestic waste ...

Secondly, in agricultural production, Vinh Phuc province has focused on the aspect of environmental sustainability with the creation of clean water for irrigation works on the system of lagoons along the foot of Tam Dao mountain, step by step improving farming practices facilitates in order to create favorable conditions for the improvement of natural resources, and safety for agricultural products.

+ The process of industrialization and modernization promotes the transformation of the labor structure of the province, the number of workers in the industry and service sector increases, but is still slow; the number of workers in the agricultural and rural areas has not decreased much, rural population still accounts for 76%, higher than the national average. The pressure to create jobs in both urban and rural areas is still great today. Thirdly, Vinh Phuc province has focused on developing and protecting Tam Dao forest, limiting exploitation, increasing afforestation, protecting and regenerating forests, combining exploitation of forest canopy to plant medicinal plants, increasing efficiency for forest economy, limiting deforestation. As a result, the forest cover is up to 70%.

+ Being a province with a high economic growth rate, the local budget revenue is ranked among the top provinces of the country. However, the investment back into agriculture, rural areas and farmers is not commensurate.

Fourthly, Vinh Phuc province has built safe production programs, agricultural businesseses applying VietGap standard production models have changed from farming methods that pollute the environment due to heavy using pesticides, chemical fertilizers ... to safe farming methods for production and creating safe products by using synthetic pest control measures, applying microbiological fertilizers instead of chemical fertilizers ...

- Assessment of unsustainability: Firstly, there are still conflicts of interests between subjects, among sectors, between the immediate and the long-term, which have a great impact on the environmentally sustainable agricultural development.

Secondly, the development of industrial zones and enterprises has significantly affected the sustainable agricultural development environment. The surveys on pollution levels of non-agricultural enterprises show that: officials at commune and district levels all assessed that 100% of them have pollution, in which they assessed very polluted levels from 60-65%, less pollution from 35-40%.

Thirdly, the pollution of industrial zones, golf courses and other economic establishments affecting agricultural production and people's life occurs, though being overcomed, but slowly. Currently in Vinh Phuc, not only the abuse of fertilizers, plant protection drugs, the discharge of livestock wastewater, waste in industrial activities, indiscriminate disposal ... gradually, it also makes a significant impact on the quality of agricultural land.

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CHAPTER IV will be 90 thousand people, accounting for 12%.

ORIENTATION AND SOLUTIONS FOR SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE DEVELOPMENT IN VINH PHUC PROVINCE TO 2030 4.1. Forecast about factors affecting sustainable agricultural development in Vinh Phuc province in the period of 2021-2030 4.1.1. Forecasts about the international context and international economic integration - About quality: + Attaching importance to the formal education and training system for future generations, from kindergarten and preschool to general education and vocational training in association with training and human resource development programs of the province and the whole country;

+ Enhancing the training of qualified technical workers in the fields of industrial production, service - tourism, agriculture ... in line with the national and international trend of science - technology development; + Promoting the training of highly qualified staff in a number of fields such as

information technology, biotechnology ... 4.1.4.2. Forecast about changes in agricultural land size

The international and regional globalization contexts are taking place increasingly strongly in breadth and depth in many fields, especially in the economy. The process of economic integration has opened up favorable prospects for economies to have development opportunities on the basis of promoting their comparative advantages and enhancing their competitiveness. The integration process has gradually brought favorable conditions and opportunities to attract investment capital to the export agricultural market, the ability to cooperate in absorbing new technologies, creating conditions to improve production efficiency on export business in general, and in agriculture in particular;

The stable agricultural space of Vinh Phuc to 2020 basically concentrates in districts of Vinh Tuong, Yen Lac, Tam Duong, Lap Thach and Song Lo. These are the agricultural production areas identified to be relatively stable in the period up to 2030. 4.1.4.3. Forecasts about the ability to attract investment capital for sustainable agricultural development in Vinh Phuc province With the achievements and obstacles of the international context and international economic integration; with the integration trends in the new period, the economy of Vinh Phuc in general, the sustainable agricultural development of Vinh Phuc province in particular has the following advantages and disadvantages:

According to reviewing, adjusting and supplementing the planning for agricultural, forestry and fishery development in Vinh Phuc province to 2020, with a vision to 2030, the period 2021 - 2030 needs VND 9,800 billion and mainly comes from socialization. 4.1.4.4. Forecasts about market fluctuations in consumption of products for sustainable agricultural development in Vinh Phuc province (1) In terms of advantages, in the coming years, Vinh Phuc province will have many favorable conditions in expanding markets for agricultural products with the ability to export, absorb, and apply new and advanced technologies in the province's agricultural, forestry and fishery exports.

(2) Regarding difficulties and challenges, economic integration in the region and the world is both an advantageous factor, but also a big challenge for the agricultural sector when it comes to competing with similar products that have high quality imported from countries in the region and the world. 4.1.2. Forecast about climate change affecting sustainable agricultural development

It is forecasted that by 2030, the province's agricultural production needs to meet the requirements of high quality and safe products for the province's population of about 1,228 million people, 10 million tourists to supply to Hanoi market with about 12 million people and the Northern Midlands and Mountains provinces. 4.2. Perspectives, directions and goals for sustainable agricultural development in Vinh Phuc until 2030 4.2.1. Perspectives on sustainable agricultural development in Vinh Phuc until 2030 - The sustainable agricultural development of Vinh Phuc must be placed in the socio- economic overall of the province, the region and the whole country. Climate change coupled with an increase in global temperature with strong fluctuations in rainfall and an increase in climatic phenomena, extreme weather such as floods, droughts, sea level rise,... become a constant threat to production and life. 4.1.3. Forecasts about the trend of industrialization, modernization and socio-economic development - Sustainable agricultural development in Vinh Phuc province is in the process of high-speed industrialization and modernization of the local province

- The agriculture of Vinh Phuc province and the provinces with high rate of industrialization and modernization not only meet the needs of the urban population, but also have to stabilize and improve the lives of most of the population in the above districts of the Province - On the general scale of the economy: According to the development strategy in the periods from 2010 to 2020, with a vision to 2030, Vietnam's socio-economy will continue to grow strongly in the direction of industrialization and modernization to exceed the limits of group of countries with underdeveloped economy and entering a new development period of the country.

- For Vinh Phuc province, the master plan for socio-economic development to 2020, vision to 2030 has defined the goal of building Vinh Phuc to become an industrial province by 2020, towards becoming Vinh Phuc City in the early 30s. 4.1.4. Forecast about the changes of resource factors for agricultural development 4.1.4.1. Forecasts about population and labor size change - Sustainable agricultural development must base on combining the orientation, support and supervision of the State with the self-discipline of production establishments and workers. 4.2.2. Orientations and goals of sustainable agricultural development in Vinh Phuc until 2030 4.2.2.1. Orientation for sustainable agricultural development in Vinh Phuc province until 2030 - About quantity: According to the forecast, by 2030, the population of the province will be about 1,228 million people, the rate of urbanization by 2030 is 75%.

It is forecasted that the labor force in the age group to participate in socio-economic activities by 2030 will be 749 thousand people. The labor in the agricultural sector in 2030 - On the basis of exploiting the advantages and limiting negative impacts created by industrialization and modernization towards commodity production and international economic integration. Especially, it is necessary to develop ecological, high-tech and sustainable agriculture to meet the needs of each local population, domestic and export

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demands. - To give priority to the development of advantageous agricultural, forestry and fishery on restoring order in agricultural product consumption, finding and expanding new markets; connecting markets to avoid agricultural congestion, especially in the context of the Covid epidemic. products, with favorable conditions for land, water sources and consumption markets.

- Strengthening the Party's leadership, state support and management for sustainable agricultural development. The contents of the solution focus on improving the quality of the organization and leadership of the Party Committees at all levels; improving the management capacity and efficiency of authorities at all levels in the districts; continueing to implement administrative reforms ...

- To strengthen the application of science and technology, use yield and quality varieties, adapt to climate change, apply mechanization, implement advanced technical processes, and measure sustainable intensive farming; reduce the use of inorganic fertilizers and plant protection chemicals; to use land and water resources in an efficient and economical manner, strongly develop the technology of post-harvest processing and preservation. Converting low-yield and efficient paddy land to other crops is more efficient. 4.2.2.2. The goal of sustainable agricultural development in Vinh Phuc province until 2030

Solutions are mentioned according to the following contents: The basis to propose solutions, the content of the solution and the results brought about when implementing the solution.

To build sustainable agriculture in the direction of exploiting the potential and advantages of each locality, developing commodity agriculture with high production technology and product quality; Growth is maintained in the condition of declining human and land resources. 4.3. Solutions to promote sustainable agricultural development in Vinh Phuc until 2030 The thesis has proposed some solutions for Vinh Phuc province, localities with similar conditions to Vinh Phuc province that can be studied, referenced and applied. Specifically:

- Combining propaganda work with strictly handling violations of land, environment ... affecting sustainable agricultural development. This is a premise solution to harmonize the relationship of interests of each organization, individual, and enterprise to participate in sustainable agricultural development, with specific proposals.

- Implementing the planning, review of planning and production arrangement towards sustainable agricultural development. This is a solution to create a basis for implementing the problems of sustainable agricultural development in an active manner in the conditions of high-speed industrialization and modernization in Vinh Phuc and other localities with similar conditions.

- Developing research and application of science and technology and accelerating the development of agricultural technology in sustainable agricultural development. This is a solution to create sustainability in agricultural development, especially high-tech agricultural development. Because it creates conditions to control negative effects caused by influencing factors, especially high-speed industrialization and modernization.

- Building rural infrastructure to meet the requirements of sustainable agricultural development. This solution is proposed with the continuation of building advanced new rural areas, promoting exploitation of infrastructure works brought about by the National Target Program on New Rural Areas.

- Renovating and perfecting land solutions and policies to meet the requirements of sustainable agricultural development. This is a solution that both guides and promotes the inspection and supervision of agricultural development of the province, focusing on the problems of accumulation, concentration of land, expanding problems of agricultural land lease, transfer of land use rights, capital contribution with land use rights ...

- Promoting the training of human resources to meet the requirements of sustainable agricultural development. The solution goes into identifying objects, content, forms and sources of capital for training; training for large-scale production owners; Taking advantage of access to support funds and socializing training capital; reviewing and implementing vocational training program for rural workers. - Having market solutions for sustainable agricultural products. The solution focuses

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CONCLUSION

Sustainable development in general, agriculture in particular has become an inevitable trend due to the increasing demand for agricultural products and the increasing role of agriculture, while natural resources are increasingly being exhausted. due to the impact of the development of non-agricultural sectors and the increasingly negative climate change, the ecological environment is increasingly polluted. In order to develop sustainable agriculture, it is necessary to evaluate the trends and their impacts on sustainable agricultural development as urgent requirements.

Vinh Phuc is one of the localities with a high rate of industrialization and modernization compared with most localities in the country. The development of Vinh Phuc and localities with a high rate of industrialization and modernization creates material factors, economic relationships for sustainable agricultural development, at the same time, there are also negative factors influencing on unsustainable development. The main reason is because of the lack of awareness of the relationships that positively and negatively impact of high-rate industrialization and modernization on the sustainable agricultural development; have not yet resolved harmoniously the relationship of interests between agriculture with other sectors and fields; between the immediate and the long term, between the business and the community ... in the process of industrialization and modernization at a high speed, its influence is quite large.

By 2030, the speed of industrialization and modernization will take place increasingly strongly. For Vinh Phuc and localities with a high rate of industrialization and modernization, the process of industrialization and modernization has entered the stage of in-depth development, the quality of growth is required more and more.

In order to develop sustainable agriculture, it is necessary to have a deeper understanding of the two-way impacts of industrialization and modernization on sustainable agricultural development. Especially, it is necessary to focus on the issues such as: Combining propaganda with strictly handling violations of land, environment ... affecting sustainable agricultural development; Implementation of planning, review of planning and production towards sustainable agricultural development; Developing research and arrangement application of science and technology and accelerating the development of agricultural technology in sustainable agricultural development; Building rural infrastructure to meet the requirements of sustainable agricultural development; Renovating and perfecting land solutions and policies to meet the requirements of sustainable agricultural development; Promoting the training of human resources to meet the requirements of sustainable agricultural development; Solving market problems for sustainable agricultural products; Strengthening the Party's leadership, state support and management for sustainable agricultural development.

In the context of the impact of industrialization and modernization on sustainable agricultural development increasingly deepening in both positive and negative directions in Vinh Phuc and localities with high industrialization and modernization rates, the above solutions need to be implemented in a consistent and data manner to bring about high results and efficiency.