Doctoral dissertation: Republic of Korea Vietnam strategic cooperative partnership and the way forward in the new context of global governance change in the 21st century

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With the international order experiencing rapid change,many new and complex global issues have arisen. Most of these are having an impact on the East Asian region. Within this region, two very sensitive problems, the North Korean nuclear issue and territorial dispute in the South China Sea, remain unsolved. At the same time,a now wealthy and strong China has been demonstrating its power in the territorial disputes with Japan over the Senkaku islands and with Vietnam and Philippines over The Sprately islands; Nationalism in the East Asia is also becomingstrident and attractiveto many leaders asa political too.

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Nội dung Text: Doctoral dissertation: Republic of Korea Vietnam strategic cooperative partnership and the way forward in the new context of global governance change in the 21st century

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION MINISTRY OF AND TRAINING FOREIGN AFFAIRS DIPLOMATIC ACADEMY OF VIETNAM ----------------------------------- PARK NOH WAN REPUBLIC OF KOREA-VIETNAM STRATEGIC COOPERATIVE PARTNERSHIP AND THE WAY FORWARD IN THE NEW CONTEXT OF GLOBAL GOVERNANCE CHANGE IN THE 21ST CENTURY DOCTORAL DISSERTATION MAJOR: INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS INDEX NUMBER: 62310206 HANOI – 2014
MINISTRY OF EDUCATION MINISTRY OF AND TRAINING FOREIGN AFFAIRS DIPLOMATIC ACADEMY OF VIETNAM ----------------------------------- PARK NOH WAN REPUBLIC OF KOREA-VIETNAM STRATEGIC COOPERATIVE PARTNERSHIP AND THE WAY FORWARD IN THE NEW CONTEXT OF GLOBAL GOVERNANCE CHANGE IN THE 21ST CENTURY Major : International Relations Index number : 62310206 DOCTORAL DISSERTATION SUPERVISOR: ASSOC.PROF.DR. NGUYEN THAI YEN HUONG HANOI – 2014
AFFIRMATION I affirm that this doctoral dissertation is the outcome of my own research and study. All the statistics and figures included in the dissertation are authentic and precise. All the findings have never been published in any other research study. AUTHOR PARK NOH WAN
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to express my deepest gratitude towards my supervisor Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nguyen Thai Yen Huong for her instruction, support and encouragement during my research process. My sincere thanks are also due to teachers and staff at the Faculty of Post Graduate Study, Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam, for offering me the most favorable conditions to complete my dissertation. Finally, I am grateful to all my family members, friends and colleagues for their support and encouragement. Hanoi, April 2014 Author Park Noh Wan
TABLE OF CONTENTS AFFIRMATION ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS LIST OF ACRONYMS LIST OF FIGURES PREFACE ........................................................................................................ 1 CHAPTER 1: GLOBAL GOVERNANCE CHANGES AND THEIR CHARACTERISTICS .................................................................................. 14 1.1. Global Governance: Definition and Framework ............................ 14 1.1.1. Global Governance: Definition and Analytical Usefulness of the Concept ................................................................................................... 14 1.1.2. Global Governance: Transition and Structure .............................. 16 1.2. Governance Structure Changes and Their Characteristics ........... 19 1.2.1. Structural Change Background: The End of the Cold War .......... 19 1.2.2. Characteristics of Recent Global Governance Change ................. 20 1.2.2.1. Transition into Multi-Polar System: Declining US and Rising China ................................................................................................... 20 1.2.2.2. Strengthening Regionalism: Expansion of Economic Blocks 24 1.2.2.3. Global Issues and Limitation of UN and G8 Roles ............... 27 1.3. Global Governance: Reshaping and Prospects ............................... 30 1.3.1. Possibility of Reshaping Global Governance ............................... 30 1.3.2. Reshaping Prospects of Global Governance ................................. 32 1.4. Regional Governance Change in East Asia ..................................... 34
1.4.1. General Overview ......................................................................... 34 1.4.2. Northeast Asia: Regional Cooperation and Change ..................... 35 1.4.3. Southeast Asia: Regional Cooperation and Change ..................... 37 1.5. Remarks .............................................................................................. 40 CHAPTER 2: ROK AND VIETNAM: POLICY RESPONSES TO GLOBAL AND REGIONAL GOVERNANCE CHANGE SINCE 1991 . 43 2.1. ROK and Vietnam: Responses to Global Governance Change ..... 43 2.1.1. Why it was Necessary for ROK and Vietnam to Respond ........... 43 2.1.2. ROK‟s Policy Responses .............................................................. 44 2.1.3. Vietnam‟s Policy Responses ......................................................... 48 2.2. Responses to the Global Economic Crisis on the Part of ROK and Vietnam ...................................................................................................... 52 2.2.1. Global Economic Crises and its Structural Trends ....................... 52 2.2.2. Policy Responses: ROK and Vietnam .......................................... 54 2.3. Responses to Regional Governance Change: ROK and Vietnam . 58 2.3.1. Rising China and Regional Governance Change .......................... 58 2.3.2. Responses of ROK and Vietnam to Regional Governance Change..................................................................................................... 63 2.4. Remarks .............................................................................................. 67 CHAPTER 3: ROK-VIETNAM BILATERAL RELATIONS AND WAYS FORWARD IN THE CONTEXT OF REGIONAL AND GLOBAL GOVERNANCE CHANGE IN THE 21st CENTURY ............................... 71 3.1. Overview of ROK-Vietnam Bilateral Relations .............................. 71 3.1.1. ROK-Vietnam Bilateral Relations Before 1992 ........................... 71
3.1.2. Development of ROK-Vietnam Relations since 1992.................. 73 3.1.2.1. Politics and Foreign Affairs ................................................... 74 3.1.2.2. Economic Cooperation .......................................................... 77 3.1.2.3. Development Cooperation (ODA) ......................................... 84 3.1.2.4. Cultural and Social Cooperation........................................... 87 3.2. Opportunities and Challenges in ROK-Vietnam Relations ........... 91 3.2.1. Opportunities in ROK- Vietnam Relations................................... 91 3.2.2. Engines behind Rapidly Expanding Bilateral Relations ............... 94 3.2.3. Challenges in ROK-Vietnam Diplomatic Relations ..................... 96 3.2.3.1 Challenges with Regional and Global Dimensions ................ 97 3.2.3.2. Challenges in Bilateral Relations Dimension ..................... 105 3.3. Ways Forward for ROK-Vietnam Relations in the 21st Century 109 3.3.1. Strategic Cooperative Partnership: Ways Forward..................... 109 3.3.2. General Principles ....................................................................... 112 3.3.3. Recommendations for Deepening Strategic Partnership ............ 115 3.3.3.1. For Trust-Building in Politics, Security and Diplomacy ..... 116 3.3.3.2. For Positive Response to US and Chinese Foreign Policies118 3.3.3.3. For Strategic Cooperation in Trade and Economic Sector . 120 3.3.3.4. For Diplomatic Relations with North Korea ....................... 122 3.3.3.5. For Coordinative Response to the Emerging Global Issues 123 3.3.4. Remarks....................................................................................... 131 CONCLUSION ............................................................................................ 136 AUTHOR’S WORKS ................................................................................. 140 LIST OF REFERENCES ........................................................................... 141
LIST OF ACRONYMS AHF Agape Hospital Fellowship AKFTA ASEAN-ROK Free Trade Agreement APEC Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation ARF ASEAN Regional Forum ASEM Asia – Europe Meeting ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations BRICS Brazil, Russia, India, China and Republic of South Africa EAI East Asian Institute EPS Employment Permit System EU European Union FDI Foreign Direct Investment FEALAC Forum of East Asia-Latin America Cooperation FTA Free Trade Agreement G8 (group of US, UK, France, Germany, Italy, Canada, Japan, Russia most developed countries) G20 (group of Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, twenty developed Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, ROK, Mexico, and developing Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey, the United countries) Kingdom, US, and European Union GATT General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade GNI Gross National Income IMF International Monetary Fund
IPCCC International Panel Convention Climate Change IT Information Technology KAOVA Korea Agent Orange Veterans Association KFHI Korea Food for the Hungry International KITA Korea International Trade Association KSP Knowledge Sharing Programme KVFTA ROK - Vietnam Free Trade Agreement MDGs Millennium Development Goals MERCOSUR Common Market of South America NAFTA North America Free Trade Agreement NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization NGO Non-Governmental Organization ODA Official Development Assistance OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development PNTR Permanent Normal Trade Relations PPP Purchasing Power Parity RCEP Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnerships ROK Republic of Korea SCO Shanghai Cooperation Organization SOE State-owned Enterprise TTIP Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership TPP Trans-Pacific Partnership USA United States of America
USD United States Dollar USSR Union of Soviet Socialist Republics UXO Unexploded Ordnance VAVA Vietnam Association of Victims of Agent Orange (Dioxin) WB World Bank WTO World Trade Organization
LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: BRICS International Status and Future Prospects ........................... 24 Figure 2. Trans-Pacific Partnership Countries ................................................ 26 Figure 3: Proportional Size of ROK, Chinese, and Japanese Economies in the World ............................................................................................................... 36 Figure 4: ROK, China and Japan Trade Trends .............................................. 36 Figure 5: ROK, China and Japan Trade Ratio in World Trade ....................... 37 Figure 6: ASEAN GDP in the World .............................................................. 38 Figure 7: ASEAN members‟ GDP per capita (IMF 2012 estimates) .............. 38 Figure 8: Total ROK Trade Volume 1957-2011 .............................................. 47 Figure 9: Global GDP Growth (percent, quarter over quarter) ....................... 53 Figure 10: Vietnam‟s Economic Growth & Inflation 2002 - 2010 ................. 57 Figure 11: Government Debt and Government Guaranteed Public Debt ....... 58 Figure 12: ROK‟s Investment Trend in Vietnam ............................................ 78 Figure 13: Bilateral Trade and Investment Trend ........................................... 79 Figure 14: Top Ten Investing Countries in Vietnam ....................................... 80 Figure 15: Trend of Vietnam‟s Trade Balance with ROK............................... 81 Figure 16: Vietnam's Share in ROK's Total Trade with ASEAN .................... 82 Figure 17: The Trend of Visitors to Vietnam .................................................. 88 Figure 18: Comparison of ROK, Japan and Singapore Links with Vietnam (2005-2013) ..................................................................................................... 93 Figure 19: ROK-Vietnam Trade Deficit Trend ............................................. 106 Figure 20: Energy and Oil Consumption Data.............................................. 124 Figure 21: Dependence on Foreign Resources, Oil Dependence on the Middle East ................................................................................................................ 124 Figure 22: Competing claims in the South China Sea .................................. 126
1 PREFACE 1. Introduction Since the end of the Cold War in 1991, regional and global governance have been changing rapidly. So, too, has the strategic cooperative partnership between Republic of Korea (hereafter referred to as ROK) and Vietnam. There are good reasons, therefore, to carry out an in–depth analysis of the evolving ROK-Vietnam relationship in its global setting. The world is now in the process of an unprecedented transition period. Many experts predict that the future world may shift into the “G-2 (the US and China) Era” or “the Energy- Climate Era.” [31, pp. 308]. Scholars like T. Friedman1, expect that the green and environmentally-friendly technology will play a key role in reshaping economic growth paradigms and creating national prosperity in the future. Likewise, in the post-Cold War period, the world has changed remarkably with rapid globalization. Globalization has played a pivotal role in increasing the total world GDP as well as in facilitating relationships among countries. The world has become more unified, and its system has also rapidly changed. Together with a rapid leap in economic growth in the emerging countries such as the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and Republic of South Africa), the global order and the international system are being newly 1 T. Friedman, – famous for his work on globalization, views, the future world as “Hot, Flat and Crowded”, that is to say, characterized by the three trends of global warming, middle class society and increasing of population, (from 6.7 billion in 2010 to 9.7 billion in 2050). A green revolution is the only strategy to preserve the continued existence of human kind as well as the leadership power and the role of the United States.
2 reshaped. In short, the relationships among powers which were created after World War II are being restructured. In the 21st century, relationship adjustments among powers will be one of the main issues in world politics. This transition can be summarized under the following three points: i) structural change in socialist systems, ii) shifts in world power politics, and iii) changes in global actors‟ behavior. To be more specific, after the Cold War, the dissolution of the Soviet Union led to the collapse of the socialist bloc worldwide. As a result, the world changed from a bipolar to a uni-polar system, in which the United States became the leading state. Many countries then began to move from socialist planned economies to free market oriented ones, promoting the free exchange of goods and personnel. The tone of world politics, too, changed from Hard Power Politics –dominated by diplomatic, security and military issues to Soft Power Politics- focusing on economics and culture. International actors began to address global issues together through dialogue and friendly cooperation under the basic principle of promoting peace and stability, and also fostered a cooperative and unified spirit to deal with global issues. In this complicated environment, the global governance change has decisively, and in every aspect, influenced the development of ROK and Vietnam relations. Around the middle of the 1980s, ROK and Vietnam were under pressure to reshape and rejuvenate their foreign policies to swiftly adapt to the changing global order. They responded to the newly evolving structure of world order in a timely manner, proclaiming more reform oriented and open foreign policies to enhance their national interests in the 21st century.
3 These policies contributed to promoting diplomatic normalization between the two countries in 1992, laying the groundwork for astonishing development in bilateral relations over the next twenty years. Working on this solid foundation, ROK and Vietnam need to draw up a new strategic cooperative framework. Vietnam aims to complete its industrialization and modernization by 2020, while ROK has a national goal to reunify the Korean peninsula. With these ideas as a background, this dissertation examines the two countries‟ foreign policies and their relations in all sectors. It also poses the question “What will be the next step forwards in ROK-Vietnam relations”? It then offers some proposals to re-coordinate each country‟s foreign policy in the coming years and to further develop their 2009 strategic cooperative partnership. Finally, the dissertation analyzes the present global governance mechanism established at the end of the World War II, surveys the distinctive characteristics of global governance change after the end of the Cold War, examines the responses of ROK and Vietnam to these changes, and then explores ways in which both countries can cooperate in the medium and long term periods in the 21st century. 2. Literature review There have been many books, articles and research papers analyzing “global governance”. However, up to now, works examining the ROK- Vietnam Strategic Cooperative Partnership in the 21st century in the new context of the global governance change have been lacking. The word “global governance” has come into use with the rapid globalization since the 1990s. Yet what exactly is “global governance”? Who governs the world? Both the
4 concept and the definition of “global governance” are rather vague. The Commission on Global Governance2 defines its subject very generally as “the sum of the many ways in which individuals and institutions, public and private, manage their common affairs. It is a continuing process through which conflicting or diverse interests may be accommodated and cooperative action taken.”[45, pp.7-8] However, the meaning of the term varies, depending on the person employing it or the circumstances in which it is used. The term does not have a precise definition because there is really no a general consensus about its meaning [124]. Generally, “global governance” is a useful concept as a descriptive tool for international cooperation; however, it has its limitations as an analytic framework to explain the cause and effect relationship between cooperation and conflict. Authors like James Rosenau have also used “governance” to denote the regulation of interdependent relations in the absence of any overarching political authority, such as in the international system. From a slightly different perspective Robert Gilpin proposes Hegemonic Stability Theory (HST), arguing that the international system is more likely to remain stable when a single nation-state is the dominant world power, maintaining hegemony [33, pp. 107]. Regarding the global governance mechanism after the end of the Cold War, there are a number of views. Many people ask whether it will be possible to continue to keep the present world order in the 21st century. If it is possible, 2 The Commission was established in 1992 with the support of United Nations Secretary-General Boutros Boutros-Ghali.
5 when and in what circumstances is eventual change likely? Who and which country can lead any future shift? Joseph Nye considers that the various and complex transnational connections and interdependencies between states and societies have been increasing, while the use of military force and power balancing is decreasing, although it still remains important [49, pp. 115]. The article by James Petras entitled “China: Rise, Fall, and Re-emergence as a Global Power” proposes a different view. China will replace the United States to become a leading world economic power over the next decade. However, China has seriously lagged behind the United States and Europe in building an aggressive war-making capacity. Nevertheless, the leadership in regulating world order is gradually shifting to the emerging countries. The article in the Financial Times entitled “The End of US hegemony: Legacy of 9/11” argues that while the United State still maintains overwhelming power, it no longer plays the role of hegemony [13]. Regarding the reform of the United Nations, Thomas G.Weiss, David P. Fasythe and Roger A. Coate in “The United Nations and Changing World Politics” take up three key issues: international peace and security; human rights and the growing influence of non-state actors; and sustainable development/eco-development. However, this work cannot provide a clear-cut answer to the main issues which the UN is now facing. The key issue of the UN is how to reform the UN Security Council. With accelerated globalization unprecedented global issues have arisen. A number of books, journals, and articles dealing with global issues such as climate change, poverty, terrorism,
6 and human rights, are now being published. Among them are the “UN International Panel Convention Climate Change (IPCCC) Report” and the “Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change” by Nicholas Stern. However, there are many coercive ways to address such global issues. As noted above, research on the ROK-Vietnam Strategic Cooperative Partnership has hitherto been limited. The Cold War prevented ROK and Vietnam from establishing normal relations and engaging in people to people exchange. Of course, ROK had good diplomatic relations with South Vietnam before Vietnam‟s unification by North Vietnam in 1974. Nevertheless, from the middle of the 1980s, both ROK and Vietnam began to exchange trade. The article by Do Hai Nam, Ngo Xuan Binh and Sung Yeul Koo in “Economic Cooperation between ROK and Vietnam in the Context of East Asian Integration” notes that, while their relations were inaugurated commercial during the second half of the 1980s, the ties remained limited to trade [3, pp. 419]. Around that time, ROK and Vietnam proclaimed new foreign policies to respond to the rapid changes in the international environment. ROK opened its “Northern Diplomacy,” while Vietnam adopted “Doi Moi (Reform and Open Door Policy)” in 1986. These two diplomatic policies provided the greatest impulse to strengthen ROK-Vietnam relations and bring them to their present state. In this regard, Alexander Lam Vuving “The Shaping of Foreign Policy: Vietnamese Grand Strategy after the Cold War” [115] sheds light on the reconstruction of Vietnamese diplomacy in the new world order. Charles
7 K. Armstrong‟s article entitled “South Korea‟s Northern Policy” 3, [10, pp. 35-45] examines the ROK‟s response, focusing on the importance of attached to dialogue and lessening tensions with North Korea and its communist allies. Since the establishment of diplomatic relations between ROK and Vietnam in 1992, numerous studies of bilateral ties have been published. Most focus on the development of economic and cultural, but not political relations. The article entitled “Vietnam-Korea Strategic Cooperative Partnership” in The “World and Vietnam magazine” in 2012 and the study by Do Hai Nam, Ngo Xuan Binh and Sung Yeul Koo in “Economic Cooperation between Vietnam and the Republic of Korea in the East Asian Integration,” both present new insights into the remarkable development of ROK-Vietnam relations over the last 20 years. These publications argue that the unprecedented development has occurred because both countries lie geographically in the “East Asian cultural region”, with its salient characteristics of patriotism, intelligence and skill, passion for study and industriousness in work. It was against this background that the two countries‟ relations were upgraded to “Strategic Cooperative Partnership” in 2009 from the “Comprehensive Cooperative Partnership” in 2001. However, there have been very few books which attempt to examine 3 The “Northern Policy" was the signature foreign policy of South Korean president Roh Tae-woo. The policy guided South Korean efforts to reach out to the traditional allies of North Korea, with the ultimate goal of normalized relations with the People's Republic of China and the Soviet Union, both to improve the South's economy and to leave the North so isolated that it would have no choice but to open itself up and reduce military tensions.
8 comprehensively “Vietnam-ROK strategic cooperative relations and their future direction in the context of global governance change in the 21 st century”. Ngo Xuan Binh‟s book entitled “The Relationship between Vietnam and South Korea in the New International Context” [2, pp. 296-297] suggests new ideas on upgrading the bilateral relationship to a “Strategic Cooperative Partnership” in the 21st century. However, the book fails to put forward more detailed strategic directions in response to the shifting patterns of recent world governance, and also does not clarify the fundamental principles, global and regional, on which a comprehensive 21st century “strategic cooperative partnership” should be based. 3. The research objectives With the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Cold War has ended. Moreover, both East and West Germany have been unified. Despite this, many legacies of the Cold War persist in the East Asian region, especially in the Korean peninsula. With the international order experiencing rapid change, many new and complex global issues have arisen. Most of these are having an impact on the East Asian region. Within this region, two very sensitive problems, the North Korean nuclear issue and territorial dispute in the South China Sea, remain unsolved. At the same time, a now wealthy and strong China has been demonstrating its power in the territorial disputes with Japan over the Senkaku islands and with Vietnam and Philippines over the Sprately islands. Nationalism in the East Asia is also becoming strident and attractive to many leaders as a political tool. Many scholars predict that rising China
9 might attempt to change the global governance system centered on the Western countries, with the passage of time. Under these circumstances, Vietnam and Korea need to consider a variety of realistic alternative diplomatic strategies. This dissertation looks at Korean and Vietnamese strategic cooperation in the context of global governance change in the 21st century. It focuses on the questions “What should be the next step in ROK-Vietnam relations in the context of global governance change?” “What measures should ROK and Vietnam takes to deal with various and complex factors,” and “What are their most realistic policy options in 21st century.” The dissertation then proposes new mid and long- term visions for upgrading ROK-Vietnam relations in the 21st century. 4. The task of the dissertation The dissertation focuses on solving the following tasks: 1)Studying the importance of the changing process and characteristics of global governance mechanisms in contemporary world history 2)Finding possible ways of defining international/regional/bilateral special events and situations by international political theory 3)Trying to clarify the implications of these developments and approaches for the Asian region, especially ROK and Vietnam, and analyzing possible ways forward for both countries as they respond to bilateral issues that might arise in the future 4)Examining realistic alternatives for ROK and Vietnam to upgrade and develop their relations in all sectors, including political and military cooperation