Doctoral thesis of Philosophy: Forecasting commercial property market performance: beyond the primary reliance on econometric models

The aim of this thesis is: To examine and evaluate commercial property market forecast theory and models used in forecasting market performance; to define and analyse downside risk exposure and strategies to manage risks in a real estate environment; to test the accuracy of commercial property market and economic forecasts and to determine whether they capture downside risks; to analyse and discuss the relationship between property forecast errors and economic forecast errors; to explore the current state of the australian commercial property market forecasting practice and its exposure to downside risks; to develop a decision making model to improve forecast accuracy of australian commercial property market performance.