Present day strike-slip deformation within the southern part of the İzmir-Balıkesir Transfer Zone based on GNSS data and implications for seismic hazard assessment in western Anatolia

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Herein, a combined analysis of Global Navigation Satellite System-derived strain rate maps, in accordance with recent seismicity, was presented to reveal that the N-S extension is accommodated primarily by strike-slip faulting of the İzmir-Balıkesir Transfer Zone (İBTZ), where a counter clockwise rotation (~25–100°/Myr) along the vertical axis is dominant. The results indicated that strike-slip segments within the İBTZ show variable transport sense and amount of slip along them, and they connect by hard linkage relay ramps with the dip to oblique slip normal faults. According to the strain map, the Karaburun Peninsula has the largest strain rates, at 137 nano strain (nstrain)/yr extension (NE-SW) and 126 nstrain/yr (NW-SE) compression.

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Nội dung Text: Present day strike-slip deformation within the southern part of the İzmir-Balıkesir Transfer Zone based on GNSS data and implications for seismic hazard assessment in western Anatolia

Turkish Journal of Earth Sciences Turkish J Earth Sci (2021) 30: 143-160 http://journals.tubitak.gov.tr/earth/ © TÜBİTAK Research Article doi:10.3906/yer-2005-26 Present day strike-slip deformation within the southern part of the İzmir-Balıkesir Transfer Zone based on GNSS data and implications for seismic hazard assessment in western Anatolia Eda Esma EYUBAGİL1 , Halil İbrahim SOLAK2 , Umre Selin KAVAK1 , İbrahim TİRYAKİOĞLU1,7,*  , Hasan SÖZBİLİR3,4 , Bahadır AKTUĞ5 , Çağlar ÖZKAYMAK6,7  1 Department of Geomatics Engineering, Engineering Faculty, Afyon Kocatepe University, Afyonkarahisar, Turkey 2 Distance Education Vocational School, Afyon Kocatepe University, Afyonkarahisar, Turkey 3 Department of Geological Engineering, Engineering Faculty, Dokuz Eylül University, İzmir, Turkey 4 Earthquake Research and Application Center of Dokuz Eylül University, İzmir, Turkey 5 Department of Geophysical Engineering, Engineering Faculty, Ankara University, Ankara, Turkey 6 Department of Geological Engineering, Engineering Faculty, Afyon Kocatepe University, Afyonkarahisar, Turkey 7 Earthquake Implementation and Research Center of Afyon Kocatepe University, Afyonkarahisar, Turkey Received: 23.05.2020 Accepted/Published Online: 12.10.2020 Final Version: 22.03.2021 Abstract: Herein, a combined analysis of Global Navigation Satellite System-derived strain rate maps, in accordance with recent seismicity, was presented to reveal that the N-S extension is accommodated primarily by strike-slip faulting of the İzmir-Balıkesir Transfer Zone (İBTZ), where a counter clockwise rotation (~25–100°/Myr) along the vertical axis is dominant. The results indicated that strike-slip segments within the İBTZ show variable transport sense and amount of slip along them, and they connect by hard linkage relay ramps with the dip to oblique slip normal faults. According to the strain map, the Karaburun Peninsula has the largest strain rates, at 137 nano strain (nstrain)/yr extension (NE-SW) and 126 nstrain/yr (NW-SE) compression. To the south, the largest strain areas begin to shrink where the NW-trending sinistral Riedel Fault is located. The smallest strains in the region were measured on the NE-trending Tuzla Fault, compatible with the right lateral component. Based on this, the northern part of the Karaburun Peninsula has the shortest recurrence period in the region. The geodetic earthquake recurrence periods throughout the region comprise 800 yr for magnitudes 7 and above and 70 year for magnitudes between 6 and 7. The period was calculated as 30 years for M > 5.5 (with 99% probability) and 100 years for M > 6 (with 95% probability). These were consistent with the geodetic earthquake recurrence periods (25–30 years for M > 5.5 and 80–100 years for M > 6). This result showed that the seismic hazard sources in the region have increased the earthquake risk, which may cause loss of life and property in the near future. Key words: İzmir-Balıkesir Transfer Zone, Global Navigation Satellite System, slip rate, geodetic recurrence interval, strike-slip tectonics 1. Introduction Marmara region (Ketin, 1957; McKenzie, 1972; Şengör, 1979; Over the last 2 decades, Global Navigation Satellite System Bozkurt, 2001; Özalp et al., 2013; Sözbilir et al., 2016). Thus, (GNSS) surveys have provided important clues about the the recent deformation of the study area is mostly dominated understanding of large-scale kinematics in the Aegean by transtensional tectonics which are controlled by the strike- region (e.g., Le Pichon et al., 1995; McClusky et al., 2000; slip dominated NE-striking İzmir-Balıkesir Transfer Zone Nyst and Thatcher, 2004; Aktuğ et al., 2009; Tiryakioğlu et (İBTZ) (Okay and Siyako, 1993; Ring et al., 1999; Sözbilir et al., 2012; Poyraz and Hastaoğlu, 2020). These studies have al., 2003; Sözbilir et al., 2011; Özkaymak et al., 2013; Uzel et shown solid kinematic evidence of the westward extrusion al., 2013). of Anatolia along the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) The İBTZ is an active, 150-km-long, crustal scale shear and East Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ), and southwestward zone, lying between İzmir and Balıkesir in western Anatolia. movement of the western end of Anatolia since the Plio- In recent years, it has been suggested that the İBTZ is a Quaternary. The changes in tectonic movement and its type geological surface expression of a slab-tear induced by the observed since the late Pliocene at the western end of Anatolia rollback of the Aegean slab, as well as concentrated volcanism corresponds to the time when the NAFZ entered the south (Gessner et al., 2013; Jolivet et al., 2013; Uzel et al., 2015). * Correspondence: itiryakioglu@aku.edu.tr 143 This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
EYUBAGİL et al. / Turkish J Earth Sci The intermittent activity of the transfer zone during separate central Greece from western Anatolia, with the late Cretaceous to present implied that a different clockwise and anticlockwise vertical axis rotations, mode of tectonics occurred over the entire period. First, respectively (Figure 1) (Ring et al., 1999; Wallace et al., it was initiated during Late Cretaceous convergence across 2008; Kokkalas and Aydın, 2013; Philippon et al., 2014). the Neotethys, as a deep crustal transform fault (Okay and The geologic evolution and linking relationships between Siyako, 1993; Okay et al., 1996), which was then reactivated the NNE-trending İBTZ and E-W trending west Anatolian as a transfer fault during the Miocene extensional collapse grabens during the Miocene to Quaternary has been of the Menderes Massif metamorphic core complex widely studied (Sözbilir et al., 2003; Uzel and Sözbilir, (Ring et al., 1999; Sözbilir et al., 2003, Özkaymak and 2008; Sözbilir et al., 2011; Özkaymak et al., 2013; Uzel Sözbilir, 2008; Uzel and Sözbilir, 2008; Sözbilir et al., 2011; et al., 2013, 2015, 2017). Instrumental seismicity in the Özkaymak et al., 2013). This resulted in the formation of İBTZ (Akyol et al., 2006; Zhu et al., 2006; Aktar et al., E-W-striking Neogene supradetachment basins in western 2007; Tan, 2013) has revealed that deformation in the Anatolia, in addition to strike-slip basins within the İBTZ. region is accommodated by: 1) dip-slip displacements on The northeast tip of the İBTZ may extend up to the North E-striking normal faults, and 2) slip on conjugate arrays of Anatolian Fault (Sözbilir et al., 2003). NW-striking sinistral and NE-striking dextral strike-slip Extension in the Aegean region has been strongly faults. However, present-day deformation mechanism and heterogeneous since the Miocene, produced by a kinematic features of the İBTZ have not been studied yet segmented core-complex-type extensional system with by means of geodetic data, except by Aktuğ and Kılıçoğlu normal faults linked to strike-slip transfer faults that (2006) and Doğru et al. (2014). To fill in this gap and attain Figure 1. Tectonic setting of the Mediterranean region and GNSS site velocities showing the kinematics of Turkey and Greece relative to the lower (Arabian) plate (McClusky et al., 2000). Poles of rotation (red, semicircular arrows with black error ellipses) for Anatolia relative to Eurasia and Arabia from McClusky et al. (2000), and for northern and central Greece relative to Eurasia (Nyst and Thatcher, 2004; Reilinger et al., 2006) indicated on the map (taken from Wallace et al., 2008). Large red circular arrows schematically demonstrate the opposing rotation of Anatolia and western Greece and the thick red line (added onto the map of Wallace et al., 2008) represents the location of the İBTZ. 144
EYUBAGİL et al. / Turkish J Earth Sci information about the kinematics of the İBTZ in detail, a was observed in the Sığacık Gulf, the Karaburun Peninsula, combined analysis of GNSS-derived strain rate maps was and the İzmir area (Ocakoğlu et al., 2004, 2005; Benetatos presented herein, in accordance with recent seismicity in et al., 2006; Uzel et al., 2013; Yolsal-Çevikbilen et al., 2014; the southern part of the İBTZ. A variable stain rate along Çırmık et al., 2017) where the study area is located. and across the transfer zone was found, suggesting also a variable slip rate with respect to each fault segment. Below, 3. GNSS data and results the geodetic background of the zone is presented, and 3.1. Methods then, the GNSS data obtained from this study are given, The study area covers the southern part of the İBTZ and and finally, the results are discussed and compared with comprises the İzmir (İF), Mordoğan (MF), Seferihisar the available literature. (SF), Tuzla (TF), Kuşçular (KuF), Kenelidağ (KF), Yağcılar (YF), Gümüldür (GuF), Güzelhisar (GFZ), Alaçatı (AF) 2. Geologic, seismologic, and geodetic background and Gülbahçe (GF) faults. A GNSS network of 39 sites was The tectonic evolution of the Aegean region was strongly established in the study area and of these sites, 15 were influenced by both back-arc extension and strike-slip used for the first time in tectonic studies. Other sites on tectonics during the Miocene to the present day, as a result the network are sites (a total of 13 sites) for which velocity of the southwestward retreat of the Hellenic subduction data was published in various studies. They were included trench and westward escape of Anatolia between the in the Turkish National Fundamental GNSS Network, NAFZ and EAFZ, respectively (Royden, 1993; Kokkalas et Continuously Operating Reference Stations Network, al., 2006; Jolivet and Brun, 2010). Western Anatolia, as a Turkey and were within the boundaries of the region. The part of Aegean region, is bounded by 2 major structures: data for those measured during the recent years from the the NAFZ in the north and Pliny-Strabo trench (PST) in sites specified on the network were obtained from the the south (Sakellariou and Kraounaki, 2018). The Burdur- General Directorate of Mapping and other institutions Fethiye Shear Zone (BFSZ), continuation of the PST on in RINEX format. The oldest measurements were from land, borders the Western Anatolian Block as the left 2008 and the newest were from 2017. Along with this data, lateral shear zone in this region (Hall et al., 2014; Elitez GNSS observations were conducted in 2018 and 2019, et al., 2016; Elitez and Yaltırak, 2016). The overriding with at least 3-campaign observations at each site (Table Aegean crust flows toward the SW and is being internally 1). All but 3 of the sites on the network are mandatory deformed between these 2 plate boundaries, the dextral centered pillar facilities. To avoid the centering error, these northern one (NAFZ) and the sinistral southern one (PST were measured with a 3-point chain tripod (Eyübagil, and BFSZ). This deformation is accompanied by conjugate 2020; Kavak, 2020; Solak, 2020). strike-slip and normal faults, which create local extension, In recent years, earthquake recurrences have been transtension, and rare transpression (Sakellariou and calculated from GNSS results (Jenny et al., 2004; Aktuğ et Kraounaki, 2018) (Figure 2). al., 2017; Tiryakioğlu et al., 2019). The annual earthquake Based on a review of geological, seismological, and number (N) of a certain magnitude (M, M < Mmax) can geodetic data, Sakellariou and Kraounaki (2018) indicated be expressed with the following equation by the Discrete a major change in the style of deformation of the Aegean Gutenberg-Richter model: microplate since the early Pliocene. According to them, the back-arc extension in the Miocene was replaced by N(M) = 10 a+bM (M
EYUBAGİL et al. / Turkish J Earth Sci 24° 25° 26° 27° 28° 29° 41° Istanbul 41° FZ NA Marmara Sea 40° 40° TZ IB 39° 39° WESTERN ANATOLIA AEGEAN GREECE SEA 38° Athens 38° 37° SZ 37° BF 36° 36° 35° 35° Helenic arc es re nch b oT -Stra 30 mm/yr 34° Pliny km 34° Mediterranean Sea 0 75 150 24° 25° 26° 27° 28° 29° −10000 −8000 −6000 −4000 −2000 0 2000 Figure 2. Major active tectonic structures between Greece and western Elevation (m) Anatolia. Bathymetry extracted from the CGMW/UNESCO Morpho-Bathymetry of the Mediterranean Sea (Brossolo et al., 2012). The faults were compiled from Mascle and Martin (1990), Papanikolaou et al. (2002), Yaltırak (2002), Ocakoğlu et al. (2004), Sözbilir et al. (2008, 2009, 2011, 2017), Sözbilir et al. (2009), Yaltırak et al. (2012), Özkaymak et al. (2013), Elitez and Yaltırak (2014), Tur et al. (2015), Emre et al. (2018), and Eytemiz and Erdeniz Özel (2020). Abbreviations: North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ), İzmir-Balıkesir Transfer Zone (İBTZ), Burdur-Fethiye Shear Zone (BFSZ). Black arrows represent velocities taken from Reilinger et al. (2006). 146
EYUBAGİL et al. / Turkish J Earth Sci Table 1. Stations measured in 2018–2019. Station Old Data 2018 2019 Station Old Data 2018 2019 BRBR X X KBR4 X X X CKOY X X X KBR5 X X X DMRC X X NRDR X X GBHC X X ORHL X X GEMR X X SASA X X GORC X X SFRH X X IZMI X X X SIGA X X ICME X X TURG X X KABU X X URIS X X X KADI X X UZUN X X KBR1 X X X YAM2 X X KBR2 X X X YENF X X KBR3 X X X ZEYT X X X can be calculated for all earthquakes (Ward, 1998). Using Table 2. GNSS measurement strategy. the formulas described by Aktuğ (2017), earthquake recurrences can be calculated as follows, using the moment Parameter Value velocity from geodetic data instead of seismic moment Measurement type Static velocity: Session 2 days repeated Data collection 15 s interval Measurement time Minimum 8 h (3) Satellite height angle 10° In this formula, 8.0 b has a value between –0.9 and Receiver and Thales THAZMX/ASHTEC ATG4A –1.0 for Turkey. represents the seismogenic zone (15 km antenna type for Turkey) and is maximum strain rate. The parameters required for plotting geodetic earthquake recurrence maps consideration, but interstation covariances between the were computed using Eq. (1) and the strain rates. sites were neglected, since they were not available for all 3.2. Processing and results of the published velocity fields (Aktuğ et al., 2009). The All data obtained were evaluated with GAMIT/GLOBK current velocity field obtained is presented in Table 3 and software and the relevant velocities were calculated in Figure 3. During the observation period (after 2008), there Eurasia fixed and ITRF2008 epoch (Herring et al., 2018). were no significant earthquakes (i.e. M > 5) within a few The observation parameters are shown in Table 2. hundred kilometers of any of the GNSS sites, and hence, GNSS measurements were performed in the study area no corrections for earthquake-related deformation were and its surroundings by various researchers previously included in the velocity estimates. (Aktuğ et al., 2009; Özeneret al., 2012). To expand the 3.3. Strain analysis, relative velocities, and earthquake study area, the velocities published in these studies recurrence and the specified velocity area, were combined with a Using the obtained velocities, the strain area in the region simple combination at the velocity level using only the was calculated with GeodSuit v.3.2 software, with a grid method specified by Aktuğ et al. (2009). The conversion range of 0.1° × 0.1° 1. The SIGA, BRBR, LONG, KPLC, accuracy was found to be 1.5 mm at a maximum. For CTAL, ESEN, ORHL, and YKOY sites, located on the fault, connection and joining, covariances between the north and east components at each point were taken into 1 http://www.mdsoft.com.tr/Pages/Product_Geodsuit). Access Date: 01.10.2020 147
EYUBAGİL et al. / Turkish J Earth Sci Table 3. Velocity field derived in this study for the Eurasia-fixed reference frame. Eastern and northern components of velocity with their associated 1-sigma formal errors, σe and σn, in mm/year. Number Longitude Latitude Ve Vn σe σn Station 1 27.19 37.99 –17.34 –18.05 0.51 0.44 AHMB 2 26.86 38.17 –18.39 –16.74 1.18 1.25 ASKE 3 26.62 38.29 –17.41 –21.19 0.38 0.37 BRBR 4 26.38 38.31 –16.98 –22.29 0.36 0.38 CEIL 5 26.23 38.28 –17.51 –20.64 0.54 0.57 CKOY 6 27.04 38.25 –19.98 –16.86 1.61 1.76 CTAL 7 26.68 38.2 –17.65 –20.85 0.4 0.37 DMRC 8 27.08 38.15 –18.89 –15.63 1.12 1.2 ESEN 9 26.59 38.3 –17.81 –22.22 0.37 0.37 GBHC 10 27.18 38.31 –19.73 –16.58 1.29 1.44 GEMR 11 27.11 38.29 –18.31 –16.41 0.38 0.32 GORC 12 27 38.05 –17.2 –17.63 0.45 0.36 GUMU 13 26.08 38.44 –18.35 –22.46 1.07 0.97 HIOS 14 26.66 38.31 –18.54 –20.52 0.37 0.36 ICME 15 27.08 38.39 –19.37 –16.46 0.34 0.3 IZMI 16 26.47 38.67 –17.94 –21.77 0.33 0.4 KABU 17 26.59 38.36 –17.91 –21.71 0.37 0.37 KADI 18 26.61 38.49 –18.25 –19.06 0.33 0.36 KBR1 19 26.55 38.57 –17.39 –19.29 0.32 0.36 KBR2 20 26.38 38.58 –18.73 –23.88 0.33 0.4 KBR4 21 26.41 38.49 –18.63 –21.71 0.35 0.4 KBR5 22 26.59 38.18 –16.94 –18.17 1.34 1.48 KOKR 23 26.9 38.08 –18.46 –17.84 1.16 1.19 KPLC 24 26.99 38.38 –20.01 –17.84 0.35 0.32 NRDR 25 26.95 38.16 –18.94 –18.22 0.42 0.36 ORHL 26 27.08 38.01 –19.29 –19.24 1.02 0.91 OZDE 27 27.1 38.17 –18.42 –17.91 0.41 0.35 SASA 28 26.79 38.21 –18.01 –19.9 0.39 0.34 SFRH 29 26.78 38.17 –18.04 –24.02 0.63 0.46 SIGA 30 26.99 38.26 –19.99 –16.47 1.17 1.28 TRAZ 31 26.78 38.26 –17.74 –18.81 0.39 0.36 TURG 32 26.74 38.38 –18.96 –17.54 0.38 0.37 URIS 33 26.94 38.09 –18.47 –17.53 1.19 1.23 URKM 34 26.59 38.25 –17.53 –19.79 0.41 0.39 UZUN 35 26.65 38.22 –17.91 –19.46 1.25 1.4 YACI 36 27.13 38.49 –18.89 –15.75 0.58 0.57 YAM2 37 26.79 38.74 –22.58 –18.03 0.43 0.47 YENF 38 27.03 38.21 –18.91 –18.65 1.01 1.09 YKOY 39 26.49 38.2 –16.82 –22.04 0.64 0.62 ZEYT 148
EYUBAGİL et al. / Turkish J Earth Sci Figure 3. Velocity field in the study area. Red lines show active faults. Black arrows show Eurasia-fixed velocity. Kinematics of the faults in the literature are represented by white arrows. Abbreviations: İzmir Fault (İF), Mordoğan Fault (MF), Seferihisar Fault (SF), Tuzla Fault (TF), Kuşçular Fault (KuF), Kenelidağ Fault (KF), Yağcılar Fault (YF), Gülbahçe Fault (GF), Gümüldür Fault (GuF), Güzelhisar Fault Zone (GhF), Alaçatı Fault (AF), Balıklıova Relay Ramp (BRR). could affect the strain area negatively. Considering the component of the MF, extending to the NS, is dominant. excess number of sites in the region, while calculating the When the vicinity of the CEIL-GBHC sites was strain area, these sites were excluded from the evaluation examined, it could be seen that the strain areas shrunk (Figure 4). Generate Mapping Tools software was used to and there was NE-SW directional compression. It was visualise all of the data (Wessel et al., 2019). observed that faults with a left lateral component (NNE- When Figure 4 is examined from north to south, the SSW extension and NNW-SSE directional compression) largest strain accumulation in the region is to the north of were active in the vicinity of Gübahçe-Yağcılar faults the Karaburun Peninsula (KABU-KBR1). It was observed (ICME-GBHC-YACI). At the same time, the smallest that a NE-SW extension (137 nano strain (nstrain) and strains in the region were on the TF. NW-SE compression regime are dominant in the region The most striking aspect of the strain analysis was (126 nstrain). These results showed that the left lateral based on observations made between the SF and YF. NNE- 149
EYUBAGİL et al. / Turkish J Earth Sci Figure 4. Regional strain field and the local earthquakes that occurred in the region during the instrumental period (Mw > 5). Note the coexistence of focal mechanism solutions of both normal faults and strike-slip faults during the instrumental earthquakes around the Karaburun Peninsula. Blue and red arrows: components of extension and compression, respectively, numbers above the beach ball: year and magnitude of the earthquake. Kinematics of the faults in the literature are represented by white arrows. SSW extensions are dominant in this region. However, as Relative velocity combinations were used to obtain and can be seen around the YACI and SIGA sites (2005: 5.8 and collect further information about the movements of the 2005: 5.7, respectively), the focal mechanism solutions of faults in the region. For the first combination, the TURG- earthquakes with Mw > 5 in the region were in harmony SFRH sites in the middle of the region were taken as fixed, and compliance with the calculated and measured strain and it was observed that the sites west of the MF and GF areas. Nevertheless, rotations of the strain areas in the moved southward with an average velocity of 3 mm/year. region were drawn and are presented in Figure 5. When When Figure 6 is examined, there is a counter clockwise the rotation movements are examined, it was observed that rotation movement in the vicinity of İzmir Bay in the the region has a counter-clockwise rotation of between 25 region. In order to monitor this rotation movement, the and 100°/Myr (Figure 5). YENF station, located outside of the region, was taken as 150
EYUBAGİL et al. / Turkish J Earth Sci Figure 5. Rotation of the region. Black circle slices show rotation rates in °/Myr. a reference and relative velocities of the neighboring sites 1 mm/year in a NE direction. It was thought that the were computed (Figure 6). A similar rotational motion velocity difference arose because this specified site is in the could be seen when the YACI-ICME sites were taken as Gülbahçe Fault Zone. Similarly, the UZUN site lies on the fixed. KF. In general, the relative velocity of the sites to the west As another combination, the KABU-GBHC sites of the GF and the MF indicated that this section acted as around the Karaburun Fault were taken as fixed and a block. The sites to the east had a northern component, relative velocities were computed (Figure 6). ranging from 3 to 6 mm/year. When Figure 7 is examined, it can be seen that the When the YACI-ICME sites to the east of the GF were sites (KBR1-KBR2-ICME-YACI) located to the east of taken as fixed, it was observed that all the sites to the the MF had moved northward by approximately 2.5–3.5 west of the GF and MF are moving at a rate of 2.5 and mm/year. It was observed that the relative velocity of the 3.5 mm/year to the south (Figure 8). Again, the relatively KBR5-KADI sites, located to the west of the GF, was below low velocity of the TURG-SFRH sites to the east of the YF 0.5 mm. At the BRBR site, this velocity was approximately showed that the GF and YF moved together. 151
EYUBAGİL et al. / Turkish J Earth Sci Figure 6: Relative velocities (red arrows for SFRH-TURG-fixed and blue arrows for YENF-fixed). When the SASA-GEMR-ESEN sites, which are located between 25 and 80 years across the west of the SF and to the east of the TF, where the strains are minimum, throughout the Karaburun Peninsula. This period was were taken as a reference, it was observed that the relative determined as approximately 65 in the vicinity of the velocities of the sites on the western block of the TF were TF and over 100 years in the vicinity of the GuF. When below 1 mm/year (Figure 9). the earthquake history of the region was analysed, it was Geodetic earthquake recurrence maps were created observed that an earthquake with a magnitude of Mw: 5 using the formulas mentioned in Section 3.1, from the last occurred in 2012 offshore of the Karaburun Peninsula strain values obtained using the GNSS velocities (Aktuğ, (NE), with an earthquake recurrence period determined 2017). as approximately 25 years. Again, south of the GF and The maps were plotted for Mw: 5.5–6 to 6.5–7 and are YF, the earthquake recurrence period was determined presented in Figure 10. as 20 years and 4 earthquakes with magnitudes of Mw: When Figure 10a is examined, it can be seen that 5–5.9 occurred in 2005. It has been considered that these the earthquake recurrence period for Mw ≥ 5.5 varies earthquakes that occurred within the same year enabled 152
EYUBAGİL et al. / Turkish J Earth Sci Figure 7. Relative velocities with respect to the KABU-GBHC sites. the faults to discharge the energy accumulation in the 2 separate earthquakes occurred with a 64-year interval region and therefore, the stipulated recurrence period will offshore of the TF (SE). These were earthquakes with be longer than in the rest of the region. Mw: 6.2 and Mw: 6 in 1928 and 1992, respectively. This When Figure 10b is analysed, it can be observed situation showed that the energy accumulation in the that an earthquake of Mw: 6.8 magnitude occurred in region may have been discharged with these earthquakes 1949 offshore of the Karaburun Peninsula (W), with and it complied with the stipulated longer recurrence an earthquake recurrence period that was calculated period in this part of the region. as approximately 80 years. Again, an earthquake with a When Figures 10c and 10d are examined, the earthquake magnitude of Mw: 6 occurred in 1909 offshore of the GF recurrence period for earthquakes with magnitudes Mw ≥ (S), with an earthquake recurrence period determined as 6.5 and Mw ≥ 7 were lowest in the Karaburun Peninsula approximately 100 years. and in the vicinity of the KuF (approximately 250 years for In the region of the TF, the earthquake recurrence Mw ≥ 6.5, approximately 1000 years for Mw ≥ 7). period for Mw > 6 is approximately 150–250 years, but 153
EYUBAGİL et al. / Turkish J Earth Sci Figure 8. Relative velocities with respect to the YACI-ICME sites. 4. Discussion study area is located (Aktuğ and Kılıçoğlu, 2006; Özener Several studies with new GPS/GNSS measurements et al., 2012; Pamukçu et al., 2015; Çırmık et al., 2017a). have been conducted in western Anatolia over the last 2 However, the results herein indicated that a strike-slip decades (McClusky et al., 2000; Aktuğ and Kılıçoğlu, 2006; tectonic regime was the main reason for the present-day Reilinger et al., 2006, 2010; Aktuğ et al., 2009; Özener deformation in the southern part of the İBTZ. et al., 2012; Pamukçu et al., 2015; Çırmık et al., 2017a). The eastern boundary of the Karaburun Peninsula is Regional studies have suggested that a N-S extension is represented by a combination of GF and MF with respect dominant in the region and the mean motion of the region to the relatively low velocity of the sites to the west of the was approximately 25 mm/year towards the SW in Eurasia GF and the MF. This may have resulted in a relay ramp fixed frame solutions. Only 4 of these studies, in which structure between these 2 faults, as suggested by Kıray et the newest measurement was made in 2012, have focused al. (2018). Similarly, the relatively low velocity to the east of on İzmir and its immediate surroundings, where the the YF showed that the GF and YF formed as 2 subparallel 154
EYUBAGİL et al. / Turkish J Earth Sci Figure 9. Relative velocities with respect to the SASA-GEMR-ESEN sites. splay faults that connected to the south towards the Sığacık separate faults in the Active Fault Map of Turkey. The pure Gulf, as suggested by Sözbilir et al. (2008). Additionally, GNSS data results indicated that the first 2 views were the eastern border of the Karaburun Peninsula is still acceptable due to the fault segmentation and related stress under debate in the context of the fault segmentation and loading of the eastern border of the Karaburun Peninsula. related stress distribution. The first view indicated that the On the other hand, there is a small extension GF borders the eastern side of the Karaburun Peninsula, component in the western area (CEIL CKOY). The reason and continues offshore at an approximately N-S direction for this is thought to be that the strain of the Karaburun (Ocakoğlu et al., 2004). According to the second view, Seismic Zone, as specified by Tan (2013), was discharged the GF and MF are connected by the NW-SE-trending in the region due to the intense earthquake activities that Balıklıova Relay Ramp, which were discussed by Kıray et occurred between 2007 and 2011. The same phenomenon al. (2018) and Oskay Ulutaş (2019). According to the third was observed in the vicinity of the KOKR-DMRC sites view, Emre et al. (2011) suggested that the MF and GF are due to earthquakes that occurred in Sığacık Gulf in 2005. 155
EYUBAGİL et al. / Turkish J Earth Sci Figure 10. Geodetic earthquake recurrence Maps for the Karaburun Peninsula and its surroundings. a–d show earthquake recurrences for Mw > 5.5, 6, 6.5, and 7, respectively. The units are given as log (mean eq. recurrence in years). Similarly, the strains were small on the TF. This situation sinistral Karaburun Seismic Zone (KF) is formed as revealed that the TF significantly discharged its energy as a Riedel fault. However, to the east of these faults, the a result of the 1992 earthquake. smallest strains in the region were measured on the NE- As a whole, present-day counter-clockwise rotation trending TF, compatible with the right lateral component. derived from the data herein is dominant in the region, as The largest strain accumulation in the region is to the stated by Aktuğ and Kılıçoğlu, (2006). Recently published north of the Karaburun Peninsula. Based on this, the paleomagnetic results have also shown post-Miocene northern part of the Karaburun Peninsula has the shortest counter-clockwise rotation within the southern part of the recurrence period in the region. The periods obtained by İBTZ (Uzel et al., 2013, 2015). This may indicate that the both Gutenberg-Richter (1944) and the geodetic strains western boundary of the İBTZ is located to the west of the were consistent for M > 5.5 and M > 6. Here, the MF, which Karaburun Peninsula. is associated with left lateral component of slip, has a slip- rate of approximately 2.5–3.5 mm/year and acts as a block 5. Conclusion boundary structure with the GF, located in the south, The results herein have indicated that the largest strain in reference to relative velocities, indicating a kinematic accumulation in the region is to the north of the Karaburun connection between these 2 faults. Peninsula, where NE-SW extension (137 ns) and NW-SE Also presented were the geodetic earthquake compression regime are dominant (126 ns). To the south, recurrence periods throughout the region, as 800 yr for the strain areas begin to shrink where the NW-trending magnitudes 7 and above and 70 yr for magnitudes between 156
EYUBAGİL et al. / Turkish J Earth Sci 6 and 7. Earthquake recurrence periods of the region Acknowledgments were calculated according to that reported by Gutenberg This research was a part of the Master’s thesis by Eda Esma and Richter (1944), using the instrumental earthquake EYÜBAGİL and Umre Selin KAVAK and part of the PhD catalogues of the Disaster and Emergency Management thesis of Halil İbrahim SOLAK. It was supported by the Authority and the United States Geological Survey. Afyon Kocatepe University Research Foundation (project According to the results, the period was calculated as 30 number: AKÜ-BAP 19.FENBİL.2-19.FENBİL.11) and years for M > 5.5 (with 99% probability) and 100 years for partly by the Turkish Scientific and Technical Research M > 6 (with 95% probability). 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