Slide về khủng hoảng tài chính - "Crisis on Wall Street"

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Slide về khủng hoảng tài chính - "Crisis on Wall Street"

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Khủng hoảng thì chưa nhưng giới tài chính đang hết sức lo ngại. Ngày thứ năm (9.08.2007), chứng khoán Dow Jones Mỹ xuống gần 400 điểm, khoảng 3 %. Chứng khoán thế giới đồng loạt giảm giá tương tự. Đầu ngày thứ hai chứng khoán xuống thêm gần 200 điểm, rồi đổi chiều khi các Ngân hàng Trung ương quan trọng như Mỹ, châu Âu, Nhật, đồng loạt can thiệp. Tổng số tiền bỏ ra gần 350 tỷ USD để mua chứng khoán của các tập đoàn tài chính môi giới chứng khoán địa ốc nhằm ngăn chặn tâm lý......

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Crisis on Wall Street Alan Blinder Markus Brunnermeier Harrison Hong Paul Krugman Hyun Song Shin Panel Discussion sponsored by Department of Economics
Total Assets [1952 =1] 900 800 700 Non-Financial Corporate 600 Household 500 Commercial 400 Banks 300 Broker Dealer 200 100 0 1952 1961 1970 1979 1988 1997 2006
Total Assets [1952 =1] 1000 Non-Financial 100 Corporate Household Commercial 10 Banks Broker Dealer 1 1952 1961 1970 1979 1988 1997 2006
Trillion Dollars 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 1980Q1 1981Q1 1982Q1 1983Q1 1984Q1 1985Q1 GSEs 1986Q1 1987Q1 ABS issuers 1988Q1 Credit unions 1989Q1 1990Q1 Commercial banks 1991Q1 Savings institutions 1992Q1 1993Q1 1994Q1 1995Q1 1996Q1 Agency and GSE mortgage pools 1997Q1 1998Q1 1999Q1 2000Q1 2001Q1 2002Q1 2003Q1 2004Q1 2005Q1 US Home Mortgage Holdings 2006Q1 2007Q1
2007Q1 US Home Mortgage Holdings 2006Q1 2005Q1 2004Q1 2003Q1 2002Q1 2001Q1 2000Q1 1999Q1 1998Q1 1997Q1 1996Q1 Market‐based 1995Q1 Bank‐based 1994Q1 1993Q1 1992Q1 1991Q1 1990Q1 1989Q1 1988Q1 1987Q1 1986Q1 1985Q1 1984Q1 1983Q1 1982Q1 1981Q1 1980Q1 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Trillion Dollars
Lehman Balance Sheet (2007) Short term Other Equity debt 4% Cash Long-term 3% 8% 1% debt Receivables 18% 6% Short position 22% Long position Payables 45% 12% Collateralized lending 44% Collateralized borrowing 37% Assets Liabilities
Bear Stearns Balance Sheet Equity 3% Other Cash Other Short term debt 2% Receivables 6% 5% Long-term debt 11% 14% 17% Short position 11% Long position 43% Payables Collateralized 22% Collateralized lending borrowing 32% 34% Assets Liabilities
Total Assets and Leverage Lehman Brothers Merrill Lynch Morgan Stanley .2 .2 .2 Total Asset Growth Total Asset Growth Total Asset Growth .1 .1 .1 2007-3 1998-3 2007-4 2007-3 0 0 0 2007-3 1998-3 1998-3 2007-4 -.1 -.1 -.1 1998-4 2007-4 1998-4 -.2 -.2 -.2 1998-4 -.2 -.1 0 .1 .2 -.2 -.1 0 .1 .2 -.2 -.1 0 .1 .2 Leverage Growth Leverage Growth Leverage Growth Bear Sterns Goldman Sachs Citigroup Markets 98-04 .2 2007-3 .1 .1 Total Asset Growth Total Asset Growth Total Asset Growth 2007-4 0 .05 .1 1998-3 -.1 1998-4 0 0 2007-4 -.2 2007-3 1998-3 1998-4 -.05 -.1 -.2 -.1 0 .1 .2 -.15 -.1 -.05 0 .05 .1 -.3 -.2 -.1 0 .1 .2 Leverage Growth Leverage Growth Leverage Growth
Leverage and Total Assets Growth Asset weighted, 1992Q3-2008Q1, Source: SEC .2 .1 Total Assets (log change) 2008-1 2007-3 0 2007-4 -.1 1998-4 -.2 -.2 -.1 0 .1 .2 Leverage (log change)
13-Mar 12-Mar 11-Mar 10-Mar 9-Mar 8-Mar Bear Stearns Liquidity Pool (US$ billions) 7-Mar 6-Mar 5-Mar (Source: SEC) 4-Mar 3-Mar 2-Mar 1-Mar 29-Feb 28-Feb 27-Feb 26-Feb 25-Feb 24-Feb 23-Feb 22-Feb 25.00 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00
Latin Asia Spiralling subsidiaries Europe America DOMESTIC HSB Group AIG is a huge multinational insurer, but it and the AIG Middle PERSONAL (Parent company is much more than that. A glance at the Caribbean Pacific Environmental Europe East of The Boiler group’s structure shows why. Should it LINES Inspection & follow Lehman into administration, it UNITED Insurance) would create shockaves across global American Middle International GUARANTY financial markets East Philippines DOMESTIC Canada Africa Underwriters CORPORATION GENERAL BROKERAGE American INSURANCE GROUP Lexington South Life Insurance -$827m Asia Insurance Company The Philippine Company American AIU Accident Operating loss Life & General FOREIGN & Health Q2 2008 Insurance Division GENERAL International Latin AIG America Company INSURANCE Lease Finance Executive Japan GROUP Liability Corporation AIG Financial Products Japan LIFE (Capital Markets FOREIGN LIFE INSURANCE Operation) INSURANCE & RETIREMENT & RETIREMENT AIG Star Life SERVICES Taiwan SERVICES Insurance -$2.4bn FINANCIAL Consumer Finance Operating loss SERVICES Group Q2 2008 Hong China Nan Shan Life Insurance -$5.9bn Operating loss Kong Company AIG Retirement Q2 2008 Puerto India Brunei DOMESTIC LIFE Rico AIG AIG American American INSURANCE & Private Advisor General International RETIREMENT Finance Macau Assurance Guam SERVICES AIG Bank ASSET Group US Virgin SunAmerica Retirement MANAGEMENT Islands Indonesia Vietnam Markets AIG SunAmerican -$314m Operating loss Imperial A.I. Credit Including 45 states Companies Australia AIG AIG Annuity Asset Q2 2008 AIG in US South Insurance Investments Malaysia Korea American Management Singapore New Thailand Company General Corporation Zealand Note: Not all subsidiaries are represented FT Graphic
Markus Brunnermeier What happened last week? Harrison Hong How did we get here? Paul Krugman What should be done? Alan Blinder Where do we go from here?