Model selection tests

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  • The model used–an extension of the log-linear dividend-price ratio model of Campbell and Shiller (1988, 1989)–facilitates a straightforward test of these alternatives in a linear regression with the log price-earnings ratio as dependent variable. The regression results suggest that the correlation between the price-earnings ratio and expected inflation is the result of both effects; that is, an increase in expected inflation reduces equity prices because it is associated with both lower expected real earnings growth and higher required real returns.

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  • I invite you to read this book in its entirety, then to go back and review each section of the book as you begin to plan and ultimately to implement your own telemarketing efforts. Virtu- ally all of the information you’ll need will be found within this book, however, additional resources are also available from my Website ( No matter what you sell, you’ll soon discover that the telephone is an extremely power- ful tool for finding and qualifying leads and closing sales.

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  • The feedback from oil prices to economic activity is captured by a reduced-form production function that allows us to separately specify shocks to the output gap (transitory shocks to output), shocks to potential output (permanent shocks to the level of output), and shocks to potential output growth (permanent shocks to the growth rate of output). The richness of this specification helps us to model the complicated interactions of oil price movements and GDP, where both trend and gap decline if oil prices increase.

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  • After CFA made a random selection of the time frame from which credit files were to be analyzed, a generic number was assigned to keep the nameless study data from each study file separated from other study files. No copies or partial copies of any credit reports, on paper or electronically, were removed from any credit reporting agency location. Anonymous credit scores and an analysis of the credit data, as reviewed by credit reporting agency personnel for security and industry knowledge, was supervised and recorded by the CFA researcher for tabulation.

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  • In short, the literature still lacks a convincing test of the buffer-stock model. In this paper we use a survey question on precautionary wealth available in the 2002 Bank of Italy Survey on Household Income and Wealth (SHIW) to propose a direct test of buffer stock behavior. The question asks people how much savings they think they need for future emergencies, and is similar to a question contained in the 1995 and 1998 Surveys of Consumer Finances described in Kennickell and Lusardi (2004).

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  • For the most part modern theories of economic growth assume population change to be a determining factor of human welfare. A central tenet of the dominant theory is that although population growth doesn’t affect the long-run rate of change in living standards in any way, it affects the long-run standard of living adversely (Solow, 1956). Recent models of economic growth have been more assertive. They lay stress on new ideas as a source of progress.

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  • The sample extraction and concentration steps in this method are essentially the same as in Methods 606, 608, 609, and 612. Thus, a single sample may be extracted to measure the parameters included in the scope of each of these methods. When cleanup is required, the concentration levels must be high enough to permit selecting aliquots, as necessary, to apply appropriate cleanup procedures. The analyst is allowed the latitude, under Section 12, to select chromatographic conditions appropriate for the simultaneous measurement of combinations of these parameters....

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  • In order to define as accurately as possible what the ‘ordinary’ Briton has set aside, our study uses median figures throughout. Our research partners have also used independent data to create a model for the UK savings distribution at the top end of the scale, which represent the wealthiest five per cent of the population who are systematically under-represented in all ‘nationally representative’ polling. This allows us to maintain the consistency and accuracy of the survey sample in order to find the true ‘man in the middle’.

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  • In this article, our primary interest is to compare and discuss about the criteria for selecting model and its applications. The authors provide approaches and procedures of these methods and apply to the tra c violation data where we look for the most appropriate model among Poisson regression.

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  • The present study has aimed to test the accuracy of Forecast error (FE) value of wheat yield through non-linear models in Bihar. For this study, there were four models namely Monomolecular, Logistic, Gompertz and Compound growth model has been taken under study. The best suitable non-linear model is selected on the basis of different statistic i.e. MAPE, RMSE, OSAF, % FE. These were computed for various growth models under the three agro-climatic zones of Bihar and also for whole Bihar state.

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  • In the context of a master level programming practical at the computer science department of the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, we developed and make available an open-source code for testing all 203 possible nucleotide substitution models in the Maximum Likelihood (ML) setting under the common Akaike, corrected Akaike, and Bayesian information criteria.

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  • Chris Adcock is Professor of Financial Econometrics in the University of Sheffield. His career includes several years working in quantitative investment management in the City and, prior to that, a decade in management science consultancy. His research interests are in the development of robust and non-standard methods for modelling expected returns, portfolio selection methods and the properties of optimized portfolios. He has acted as an advisor to a number of asset management firms. He is the founding editor of the European Journal of Finance. George A.

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  • Prison policies often overlook the special needs of women and their health. Many women in prison have high levels of mental illness and drug or alcohol dependence as well as histories of sexual and physical abuse and violence. Issues arising from gender-specific health care needs and family responsibilities are also frequently neglected. Although women represent a small percentage of the total prison population, their numbers are increasing and the rate of increase is much greater than that of men. ...

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  • One of the greatest diamond exploration success stories of the twentieth century was that of Russia. In the 1930s Russian explorers recognized geological similarities between the ancient bedrock in Siberia and some diamond-rich parts of southern Africa. They began prospecting in the Sakha region and in 1954 discovered the first kimberlite pipe in the region, called Zarnitsa (Dawn); more than 500 additional kimberlites were discovered during the next two years.

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  • In addition to the results prepared in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles ("GAAP"), the company uses adjusted EBITDA, a non-GAAP financial measure, in analyzing and assessing the overall performance of the business. The company defines adjusted EBITDA as loss from continuing operations before income taxes, interest income and expense, depreciation and amortization, stock based compensation, restructuring expense, acquisition and integration expenses and certain other non-cash income and expense items.

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  • This paper discusses a decision-tree approach to the problem of assigning probabilities to words following a given text. In contrast with previous decision-tree language model attempts, an algorithm for selecting nearly optimal questions is considered. The model is to be tested on a standard task, The Wall Street Journal, allowing a fair comparison with the well-known trigram model.

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  • According to government estimates released in August 2008, about 134,000 HIV-positive individuals currently live in Argentina. Of those, about half are thought to be unaware of their status. Women comprise approximately one quarter of all people living with HIV, with the majority of cases among women aged 30 to 39. Between 1986 and 2007, a total of 3,857 individuals under 14 years of age were diagnosed with HIV.

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  • Research shows that sensational news stories as well as popular romance novels often feature themes related to important topics in evolutionary psychology. In the first of four studies described in this paper we examined the song lyrics from three Billboard charts: Country, Pop, and R&B. A content analysis of the lyrics revealed 18 reproductive themes that read like an outline for a course in evolutionary psychology. Approximately 92% of the 174 songs that made it into the Top Ten in 2009 contained one or more reproductive messages, with an average of 10.49 reproductive...

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  • The groups turn out to be quite distinct. Microfinance banks, and to a lesser extent credit unions, are likely to have for-profit status. Nongovernmental organizations have non-profit status. Non-bank financial institutions are in a broad category that includes both for-profits and non-profits such as nongovernmental organizations that are specially regulated in return for being allowed to assume additional roles, including, for some, taking deposits.

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  • Over the last several decades, the standards of US GAAP and associated guid- ance have grown to many thousands of pages. By contrast, IFRS is substantially shorter in length. The principles-based nature of IFRS standards may facilitate an enhanced focus on the economic purpose of a company’s business activities in its financial reports. This may make it possible for businesses to produce financial reports that are less complex for investors and other users of financial information.

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