CBRE MARKET UPDATEDa Nang Q1/2012Presented by:THAO LE Da Nang ResearchOpening Remarks from:TIEN CAO Da Nang ResearchADAM BURY Senior ManagerCB Richard Ellis (Vietnam) Co., Ltd. Friday, April 20th, 2012.OPENING WORDSDa Nang 2012 – Continued S

Chia sẻ: Nguyễn Tuấn Vũ | Ngày: | Loại File: PDF | Số trang:20

Thêm vào BST

Báo xấu

123
lượt xem 6
download

Download Vui lòng tải xuống để xem tài liệu đầy đủ

CBRE MARKET UPDATE Da Nang Q1/2012 Presented by: THAO LE Da Nang Research Opening Remarks from: TIEN CAO Da Nang Research ADAM BURY Senior Manager CB Richard Ellis (Vietnam) Co., Ltd. Friday, April 20th, 2012 .OPENING WORDS Da Nang 2012 – Continued Signs of Growth Hyatt Regency Da Nang Da Nang International Airport The Summit All Pictures – Source: CBRE Vietnam. Date 19th April, 2012 Harmony Tower MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBRE’s DA NANG QUARTERLY UPDATES | APRIL 2012 2 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING .VIETNAM ECONOMIC OVERVIEW Q1/2012 PERFORMANCE 25 CPI (% y-o-y) / Interest rates (%) 20 3.5 Inflation surged 3.0 Monetary controls took effect 2.5 15 10 2.0 1.5 1.0 5 0 Jan-10 Monetary controls on interest rates Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 0.5 0.0 Q1/2012...

Chủ đề:

Bình luận(0) Đăng nhập để gửi bình luận!

Lưu

Nội dung Text: CBRE MARKET UPDATEDa Nang Q1/2012Presented by:THAO LE Da Nang ResearchOpening Remarks from:TIEN CAO Da Nang ResearchADAM BURY Senior ManagerCB Richard Ellis (Vietnam) Co., Ltd. Friday, April 20th, 2012.OPENING WORDSDa Nang 2012 – Continued S

CBRE MARKET UPDATE Da Nang Q1/2012 Presented by: THAO LE TIEN CAO Da Nang Research Da Nang Research Opening Remarks from: ADAM BURY Senior Manager CB Richard Ellis (Vietnam) Co., Ltd. Friday, April 20th, 2012
OPENING WORDS Da Nang 2012 – Continued Signs of Growth Hyatt Regency Da Nang Da Nang International Airport The Summit Harmony Tower All Pictures – Source: CBRE Vietnam. Date 19th April, 2012 2 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBRE’s DA NANG QUARTERLY UPDATES | APRIL 2012
VIETNAM ECONOMIC OVERVIEW Q1/2012 PERFORMANCE 25 3.5 CPI, VN (% y-o-y)) 3.0 CPI (% y-o-y) / Interest rates (%) 20 Inflation surged CPI, VN (% m-o-m) Monetary controls took effect 2.5 Refinancing rate (%) CPI (% m-o-m) 15 2.0 Rediscounting rate (%) 10 1.5 1.0 5 Monetary controls 0.5 on interest rates 0 0.0 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 Q1/2012 Q4/2011 GDP (% y-o-y) 4% 6.1% CPI (% y-o-y, e-o-p) 14.15% 18.13% Exchange rate (e-o-p) 20,828 20,828 Export (US$ Bn) 24.52 (23.6% y-o-y) 26.23 (31.7% y-o-y) Import (US$ Bn) 24.77 (6.9% y-o-y) 28.9 (23.4% y-o-y) FDI Implemented (US$ Bn) 2.5 (-0.8% y-o-y) 2.8 (-5.1% y-o-y) International Arrivals (million arrivals) 1.9 (24.5% y-o-y) 1.7 (29.3% y-o-y) Retail and Services Turnover (trillion dong) 569.7 (21.8% y-o-y) 611.5 (47.2% y-o-y) Source: General Statistics Office 3 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBRE’s DA NANG QUARTERLY UPDATES | APRIL 2012
VIETNAM ECONOMIC OVERVIEW INFLATION Petroleum Price Adjustments  Inflation continuing to trend down, possibility of upward revisions remain; Time A95 A92 Chg Pct. Chg 9-Aug-10 16,900 16,400 410 2.56%  Petroleum prices increased 10.1% compared to 24-Feb-11 19,800 19,300 2,900 17.68% the previous adjustment, leaving more pressure 29-Mar-11 21,800 21,300 2,000 10.36% on CPI in the second quarter; 26-Aug-11 21,300 20,800 (500) -2.35% 29-Mar-12 23,400 22,900 2,100 10.10% • March CPI recorded the lowest m-o-m increase since January 2011 at 0.16% m-o-m, (or 14.15% y-o-y). • Bounce back in the stock market, in part a reflection of decreasing inflation. Stock Index and Inflation 550 3,000 700 25 2,500 500 600 20 Trading Value (Billions VND) 2,000 450 500 15 VNIndex CPI (%) VNIndex 1,500 400 400 10 1,000 350 300 5 500 300 0 200 0 4-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 29-Mar 26-Apr 24-May 21-Jun 19-Jul 16-Aug 13-Sep 11-Oct 8-Nov 6-Dec 3-Jan 31-Jan 28-Feb 27-Mar Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 VNIndex CPI Trading value VNIndex 2011 VNIndex Q1/2012 4 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBRE’s DA NANG QUARTERLY UPDATES | APRIL 2012
VIETNAM ECONOMIC OVERVIEW MONETARY CONTROLS Base rate Re-discounting rate Re-financing rate 20  Positive signs with the downward adjustments 15 of key interest rates. 10 • By 1% during the first quarter (March) – refinancing adjusting to 14%, Rediscount 5 Rate to 12% and the deposit cap to 13%. 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 • A further 1% reduction to each measure was announced in the second week of April.  Lower interest rate mortgage loans still scarce • Still only limited signs of commercial loans being reduced to reflect the revised interest rates. Slight decreases of approx. 0.5% in the beginning of 2012. • 20% - 25% for non-productive sector and 16.5% - 20% for productive sector (SBV).  More stable USD/VND exchange rate, strict controls on USD/gold trading remain. 5 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBRE’s DA NANG QUARTERLY UPDATES | APRIL 2012
VIETNAM ECONOMIC OVERVIEW BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT World Bank  The 4% y-o-y GDP growth rate is the lowest 2011 2012 recorded since Q2/2009 Ranking Ease of doing business  Imports saw their lowest growth since Q4/2009 (6.9% y-o-y) resulting in low trade deficit in Vietnam 78 98 Q1/2012 Singapore 1 1  Real estate ranked first in FDI attraction, Malaysia 21 18 uncertain if that will be disbursed in the long- Thailand 19 17 term Indonesia 121 129  Bank restructuring continues to be a key topic of conversation; Protecting investors • VietinBank to issue first dollar-bond in July; Vietnam 173 166 received a B+/B credit rating from S&P. Singapore 2 2 • Changes in top management at a couple Malaysia 4 4 of banks Thailand 12 13 • Bank shareholders’ conflict Indonesia 44 46 6 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBRE’s DA NANG QUARTERLY UPDATES | APRIL 2012
HOTEL MARKET SNAPSHOT 5 STAR 4 STAR 3 STAR TOTAL Number of hotels 7 3 31 41 Total supply (room) 1,452 563 1,874 3,889 New supply (room) 0 0 0 0 Average occupancy rate (%) 43.5% 45.9% Q-o-q change (%) 9.4pp 12.7pp Y-o-y change (%) 5.3pp -13.9pp Average daily rate (US$/room/night) 104.00 55.73 Q-o-q change (%) -5.3% 1.5% Y-o-y change (%) -6.9% -26.1% Source: CBRE Vietnam 7 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBRE’s DA NANG QUARTERLY UPDATES | APRIL 2012
HOTEL 5 star HIGHLIGHTS Average Daily Rate(US$) 4 star 150 • In Q1/2012, Da Nang welcomed almost 590,000 Achieved Room Rate (US$/room/night) 120 visitors - a 31.9% q-o-q increase and 35.0% y-o-y increase. 90 • The opening of Da Nang International Airport led to 60 the number of visitors arriving increasing by 94.3% y- 30 o-y. 0 • In addition, arrivals by sea increased by 260.8% y-o- Q1/08 Q3/08 Q1/09 Q3/09 Q1/10 Q3/10 Q1/11 Q3/11 Q1/12 y, thanks to the arrival of famous cruise ships such as 5-star 4-star the Superstar Aquarius (Star Cruises). • First charter flights between Russia and Da Nang 5 star will be opened in May 2012. Occupancy (%) 4 star • The ‘Lao Farmtrip’, which came to Da Nang in March, 80% appears to be a first step in a new tourism relationship between the two countries. It is though 70% noted that at the current time there is no charter flight between the two countries. Occupancy Rate 60% • On a y-o-y basis it is noted that ADR’s at both 4 and 50% 5-star hotels decreased – though this was not 40% unexpected as the new hotels are aiming to establish themselves for the longer term. 30% Q1/08 Q3/08 Q1/09 Q3/09 Q1/10 Q3/10 Q1/11 Q3/11 Q1/12 • Occupancy in the 5-star hotel sector increased on a y-o-y basis, reflecting new tourism arrivals, whilst 4- 5-star 4-star star occupancy decreased y-o-y as new supply took effect. 8 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBRE’s DA NANG QUARTERLY UPDATES | APRIL 2012
HOTEL OUTLOOK  Upcoming festivals and the high-season will put new supply, which came on line in 2011, through its first full test.  There appears to be a growing trend of MICE travelers combining business with pleasure and thus the city may become a more rounded destination.  Travelers from China, Korea, Japan, America, Australia, Germany and Russia are expected to grow throughout the year.  A second hotel operated by Intercontinental Hotel Group is expected to become operational in Q2/2012.  It is expected that over 1,000 rooms of additional supply will be launched in 2012; launched by Melia, Pullman, InterContinental, Novotel and Dragon Vinh Trung. 9 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBRE’s DA NANG QUARTERLY UPDATES | APRIL 2012
CONDOMINIUM FOR SALE MARKET SNAPSHOT LUXURY HIGH-END MID-END TOTAL Total supply (projects) 3 5 5 13 Total supply (units) 307 1,046 1,132 2,485 New launch (units) 2 0 28 30 Average asking price (US$ psm) 2,972 1,786 937 Q-o-q change (%) -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% Y-o-y change (%) -0.5% -0.1% 8.7% Source: CBRE Vietnam •“Existing supply”: is the total number of units that have been handed over for occupation. •“New launch”: the number of units that were released to the market by developers (official start of sales for a project) in the review quarter. All units in each development are included in the calculations, however, the developer may divide sales into numerous phases and thus not all units may come online at launch date. 10 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBRE’s DA NANG QUARTERLY UPDATES | APRIL 2012
CONDOMINIUM FOR SALE Condominium Supply (units) Opening supply MARKET SNAPSHOT Change in quarter 3,000 2,500  DN welcomed 28 units of additional new supply from one mid- 2,000 end condo project, La Paz Tower. 1,500  In total there were over 30 units sold in the condo sector, more 1,000 than 70% of these were in the mid-end sector; 500  Developers in Da Nang are keeping in line with the trend seen 0 in HCMC, of keeping asking prices relatively stable but offering 2009 2010 Q1/11 Q2/11 Q3/11 Q4/11 Q1/12 discounts/incentives during negotiation. Luxury  Luxury projects saw prices decrease to US$ 2,972 psm, a Asking Price (US$ psm) High-end 2.0% q-o-q decrease, while the price of mid-end segment went Mid-end up to US$ 937 psm, a 2% q-o-q increase due to new supply 3,500 joining the sector. 3,000  The high-end projects saw prices remain stable. 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Q1/09 Q3/09 Q1/10 Q3/10 Q1/11 Q3/11 Q1/12 11 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBRE’s DA NANG QUARTERLY UPDATES | APRIL 2012
CONDOMINIUM FOR SALE OUTLOOK Azura, VinaCapital La Paz Tower, DHI All Pictures – Source: CBRE Vietnam. Date 19th April, 2012  In Q1, majority of condo units transacted are in the price range of VND 0,75 – 3,0 billion.  The majority of sales in Q1/2012 were at projects which were nearing or completed.  In 2012, DN market is expected to welcome an addition of 217 units which have prices in the range of US$ 700 – 1,500 psm.  Construction progress has been pushed forward sharply in some condo projects.  It appears that there has been a slight increase in enquiries since interest rates were dropped.  With the macro economy showing some positive signs for the real estate market, and some developers showing an increase in enquiries, it is hoped that the number of sales will increase in the coming months. 12 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBRE’s DA NANG QUARTERLY UPDATES | APRIL 2012
SECOND-HOME VILLA FOR SALE MARKET SNAPSHOT TOTAL Total supply (projects) 12 Total supply (units) 572 New launch (units) 0 Percentage of total units sold (%) 52.5% Q-o-q change (pts) -0.5pp Y-o-y change (pts) 1.1pp Source: CBRE Vietnam All prices are quoted exclusive of VAT and service charges. •“Total supply”: is the total number of units available for sale – both primary and secondary market. •“New launch”: the number of units that were released to the market by developers (official start of sales for a project) in the review quarter. All units in each development are included in the calculations, however, the developer may divide sales into numerous phases and thus not all units may come online at launch date. 13 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBRE’s DA NANG QUARTERLY UPDATES | APRIL 2012
VILLA FOR SALE 2nd Home Villa Supply (units) HIGHLIGHTS 700 600  In Q1, DN market witnessed no new supply. 500  Although there were 10 units sold in Q1, the average sale rate Number of units 400 dropped to 52.5%, a 0.9pp decrease due to the rescission of 300 some deals. 200 100  Only 2 of the villa 12 projects reduced asking price in Q1. The decrease was from 17 – 20%. Other projects chose to leave 0 2009 Q1/10 Q2/10 Q3/10 Q4/10 Q1/11 Q2/11 Q3/11 Q4/11 headline pricing stable. Change in supply Openning supply OUTLOOK OUTLOOK Sales rate (%) 85.0  In 2012, DN market is expected to welcome additional 133 units of new supply from 3 new projects. The majority of them 70.0 will priced from US$ 500,000 to US$800,000 and sized from 400 – 700 sqm per unit. Sold rate (%) 55.0 40.0  Despite tight monetary policy over previous quarters it is 25.0 apparent that some activity has remained in the second home market – showing the wealth and disposable income that still 10.0 exists in some portions in society; Q1/09 Q3/09 Q1/10 Q3/10 Q1/11 Q3/11 Q1/12  It would be hoped that as monetary policy eases greater levels of liquidity may be created within the market; 14 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBRE’s DA NANG QUARTERLY UPDATES | APRIL 2012
LAND PLOT MARKET SNAPSHOT Northwest East South Total Number of projects 14 7 7 28 Total supply (plots) 6,980 1,445 3,813 12,238 New supply (plot) 0 0 0 0 Average price (VND per sm) VND3.1 -18.5mil VND8.5 – 40mil VND5.0 -43mil Q-o-Q Change (%) - 0 – 5% - 1 – 5% -0–7% Source: CBRE Vietnam 15 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBRE’s DA NANG QUARTERLY UPDATES | APRIL 2012
LAND PLOT HIGHLIGHTS Opening supply Land Plot Supply Change in quarter 18,000 16,000  In Q1, the unchanged supply showed 14,000 that developers hesitated in launching 12,000 new land plots and reflected the reduced Plots 10,000 sentiment for this market. 8,000 6,000  Price were flat ,or down, owing to the 4,000 selling of land plots by speculators 2,000 0 having difficulties who want to mobilise 2009 Q1/10Q2/10Q3/10Q4/10Q1/11Q2/11Q3/11Q4/11Q1/12 Est cash. 2013 Maximum price  The coastal, southern and Thuy Tu Price range by submarkets (VND mil psm) Average price areas saw greatest price declines – 48,000,000 these were also the areas that saw the 42,000,000 largest price increases. 36,000,000 30,000,000  The secondary market is more active 24,000,000 18,000,000 whilst primary market appears to be in VND 12,000,000 hibernation. 6,000,000 0  Land plots priced less than 1,5 billion Man Quang … Thanh Khe Cam Le Son Tra Ngu Hanh Son Thuy Tu My An Lien Chieu VND are more attractive buyers in current market. 16 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBRE’s DA NANG QUARTERLY UPDATES | APRIL 2012
LAND PLOT OUTLOOK  The recent market brings good opportunities for end-user buyers and long-term investors with strong financial abilities.  DN market is expected to see positive signs from the upcoming festivals (International Firework Competition/International Paramotor Competition), held in April and May.  DN Land plot market is expected to have a slight recovery in the second half of 2012 as transactions increase with interest reductions.  Some developers are considering breaking larger land plots into smaller, 65 – 90sm plots, in order to counter the slow down in the land plot market. It is hoped this will draw end- users to purchase. 17 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBRE’s DA NANG QUARTERLY UPDATES | APRIL 2012
OFFICE MARKET SNAPSHOT GRADE A GRADE B GRADE C TOTAL Number of buildings 1 6 20 27 NLA (sm) 6,314 35,823 41,756 83,893 Vacancy rate (%) 8.8% 26.1% 34.8% 29.1% Q-o-q change (pts) -4.8 pp 2.9pp -0.2pp 0.8 pp Y-o-y change (pts) -18.2 pp -17.7pp -4.7 pp -11.5 pp Average asking rent (US$ psm per month) $19.00 $13.75 $10.84 $12.70 Q-o-q change (%) 0.0% -0.4% -6.4 % 0.4% Y-o-y change (%) 0.0 % 1.0 % 8.5% 1.2% Source: CBRE Vietnam All rents are quoted on NLA. Rents are quoted including service charges and excluding VAT. 18 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBRE’s DA NANG QUARTERLY UPDATES | APRIL 2012
OFFICE HEADLINE STORIES Grade A  The average rent remained stable in Grade A properties and Asking Rents (US$ psm per month) Grade B Grade C insignificant changes were seen in both Grade B and 20 Grade C properties; Average Rental Price (US$/m2) 15  The office market witnessed no new supply in the first quarter of 2012. 10  The total vacancy of this quarter was up to 29.1% from 28.3% in Q4/2011, an increase of 0.8 pts q-o-q. 5 Q1/09 Q2/09 Q3/09 Q4/09 Q1/10 Q2/10 Q3/10 Q4/10 Q1/11 Q2/11 Q3/11 Q4/11 Q1/11 • Grade A and C saw good take-up with decreasing vacancy; • The majority of Grade B projects saw good performance during Q1/2012, however one Grade B building saw a dramatic increase in vacancy as two companies withdrew leaving large empty space that affected headline numbers; Grade A Vacancy rate(%) Grade B Grade C 80 OUTLOOK 70 60 50  Two grade B buildings, with a total 19,200 sm, likely to come online Vacancy (%) 40 by the end of 2012 . Will put pressure on vacancy rate. 30 20  In the next two quarters it is likely that the market will remain flat, 10 0  By the end of 2015 the total supply may reach 236.747 sm NLA, Q1/09 Q2/09 Q3/09 Q4/09 Q1/10 Q2/10 Q3/10 Q4/10 Q1/11 Q2/11 Q3/11 Q4/11 Q1/12 though this is dependent on all projects being completed – this is unlikely. 19 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBRE’s DA NANG QUARTERLY UPDATES | APRIL 2012
To subscribe, please contact… Q1/2012 released TODAY, April 20, 2012 quarterlyreports@cbrevietnam.com THANK YOU © 2012 CB Richard Ellis (Vietnam) Co., Ltd. This report has been prepared in good faith and with due care by CB Richard Ellis (Vietnam) Co., Ltd. We obtained some of the information above from sources we believe to be reliable. However, we have not verified the accuracy of the information which we obtained from other sources and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. We include projections, opinions, assumptions or estimates which are made with careful consideration of factors known to us for example only, and they may not represent current or future performance of the market. This information is designed exclusively for use by CB Richard Ellis clients, and cannot be reproduced without prior written permission of CB Richard Ellis. 20 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING MARKET INSIGHTS FROM CBRE’s DA NANG QUARTERLY UPDATES | APRIL 2012