Đánh giá tác động của DSM đến các chỉ tiêu kinh tế-kỹ thuật của hệ thống cung cấp điện đô thị

^ Hdi nghi Khoa hgc ky niem 35 ndm Viin Khoa hgc vd Cdng nghe Viet Nam - Hd Ndi 10/2010<br /> <br /> <br /> DANH GIA TAC DONG CUA DSM DEN CAC CHI TIEU KINH TE - KY<br /> T H U A T ciuA HE THONG CUNG CAP DIEN DO THI<br /> • • • •<br /> <br /> Nguyen Quang Ninh<br /> Vien Khoa hoc nang lugng<br /> Nha A9, sd 18 - Hoang Quoc Viet, Ciu Giiy, Ha Ndi<br /> Email: quangninh82vn(a),gmail.com<br /> Tom tat:<br /> Bdi viit ndy gidi thiiu bdi todn "Ddnh gid tdc ddng cita DSM (Demand Side<br /> Management- Qudn ly nhu cdu dien ndng) din cdc chi tieu kinh ti - ky thudt khi<br /> dp dung DSM trong Hi thdng cung cdp dien dd thi" vd kit qud khi dp dung tinh<br /> todn cho Hi thdng cung cdp diin dd thi cua thi xd Tuyen Quang, nhiing phdn tich,<br /> khuyen nghi ddi vdi cdc nhd qudn ly Thi xd Tuyin Quang vi viec dp dung cdc biin<br /> phdp DSM vdo HTCCDDT ciia Thi xd Tuyin Quang<br /> Abstract:<br /> This article introduces the mathematical problem of Evaluating effect of DSM<br /> (Demand Side Management) on economic-technical criteria when applying DSM<br /> in urban electricity providing system; calculated results when applying the<br /> problem into Tuyen Quang urban electricity providing system; and<br /> recommendations to Tuyen Quang town's authorities.<br /> <br /> <br /> l.DATVANDE<br /> Muc tieu quan ly cdng tac dieu do, van hanh sao cho hieu qua, an toan, tiet kiem, va chii<br /> trgng nang cao chat lugng cung cap dien nang bang cac bien phap DSM da va dang dugc<br /> nganh dien va toan xa hdi quan tam, nghien ciiu va img dung. Nghien ciiu Ddnh gid tdc ddng<br /> cita DSM den cdc chi tiiu kinh ti - ky thudt khi dp dung DSM trong He thdng cung cdp dien<br /> dd thi (HTCC DDT) cua thi xd Tuyin Quang se cung cap cac thdng tin can thiet giup cac co<br /> quan quan ly ciia thi xa Tuyen Quang ciing nhu Dien luc Tuyen Quang cd quyet dinh diing<br /> dan trong viec sir dung cac bien phap dieu chinh nhu cau dien nang, gdp phan quan trgng lam<br /> giam nhu cau dau tu them cac hang muc ludi dien mdi va nang cao chat lugng dien nang.<br /> <br /> <br /> 2. BAI TOAN DANH GIA TAC DONG CUA DSM<br /> DEN CAC CHI TIEU KT -KT CUA HTCCDDT<br /> DSM bao gom nhieu boat ddng do Chinh phii ciing nhu nganh dien de xudng nham<br /> khuyen khich cac hd tieu thu tu nguyen thay doi each thiic sir dung dien cua bg ma khong can<br /> den nhung thoa hiep ve chat lugng dich vu ciing nhu su thoa man cua hd tieu thu.<br /> Danh gia tac ddng ciia DSM doi vdi cac chi tieu kinh te- ky thuat khi ap dung DSM vao<br /> mdt ciu tnic HTCCDDT la phan tich sir thay ddi va hieu qua thay ddi cua cac chi tieu sau day<br /> theo sir thay ddi cua dd thi phu tai (DTPT) dien hinh dudi tac dong cua DSM [2-4]:<br /> Chi tiiu 1: Tdn thdt diin ndng trong HTCCDDT<br /> Chi tiiu 2: Sudt ddu tu cdng sudt ddt trung binh HTCCDDT<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> 351<br /> Tieu ban: Mdi tru&ng vd Ndng lugng ISBN: 978-604-913-013-7<br /> <br /> <br /> Dua tren cac thay ddi cua ty le tdn that dien nang va suat dau tu cdng suat dat tmng binh<br /> se danh gia dugc sir thay ddi va hieu qua thay ddi cua suat chi phi cung cap dien nang tmng<br /> binh cua HTCCDDT dudi tac ddng ciia DSM.<br /> De danh gia tac ddng cua DSM den cac chi tieu kinh te - ky thuat, bai toan sir dung phuong<br /> phap xay dung quan he giira sir bien ddi cua DTPT dien hinh trong van hanh dudi tac ddng cua<br /> DSM va cac chi tieu kinh t6 - ky thuat cua HTCCDDT do tac gia Bach Quoc Khanh (2001) d6<br /> xuat [1]. Viec xay dung quan he nay chinh la xac dinh cac chi tieu kinh te - ky thuat dua tren<br /> DTPT van hanh dien hinh bien ddi dudi tac ddng cua DSM. Quan he nay dugc xay dung tren:<br /> - Md phdng sir bien ddi cua DTPT dudi tac ddng ciia DSM<br /> - Phuong phap xac dinh cac chi tieu kinh te - ky thuat ciia HTCCDDT dua tren cau tnic<br /> HTCCDDT thuc te, thdng ke cac sd lieu ve thdng sd cau tnic va tinh toan cac che do<br /> van hanh cua HTCCDDT. Tir dd, xac dinh cac chi tieu kinh te - ky thuat chinh xac cho<br /> HTCCDDT dang xet trong timg che do nhat dinh. Cd the tdm tat cac budc thuc hien bai<br /> toan nhu sau:<br /> 2.1 Danh gia tac dong cua DSM d£n t6n that dien nang trong HTCCDDT<br /> - Budc 1: Thu thap sd lieu DTPT dien hmh trong van hanh cua HTCCDDT can nghien ciiu.<br /> - Buac 2: Bien ddi dang tri DTPT ve dang DTPT thdi gian keo dai 2 doan tuySn tinh va<br /> md phdng bien ddi ciia DTPT thdi gian keo dai theo lugng giam cdng suit dinh 5Pmax va<br /> lugng giam dien nang dinh AAd.<br /> - Budc 3: Tinh toan he sd tdn that cdng suat dua tren cac thdng sd dac trung cua doi tugng<br /> HTCCDDT can nghien ciin.<br /> - Budc 4: Dua tren ham tdn that va DTPT thdi gian keo dai, xay dimg quan he giiia t6n<br /> that dien riang vdi cac dac tnmg tac ddng cua DSM, va kk luan sir tac ddng cua DSM<br /> den tdn that dien nang trong HTCCDDT.<br /> - Budc 5: Tinh toan ty le thay ddi tdn that dien nang theo giam cdng suit dinh va giam<br /> dien nang dinh cua DTPT. K6t luan hieu qua thay ddi tdn thit dien nang trong<br /> HTCCDDT dudi tac ddng cua DSM.<br /> 2.2 Danh gia tac dong cua DSM den cac chi tieu kinh te-ky thuat cua HTCCDDT<br /> - Budc 1: Thu thap sd lieu DTPT ngay diin hinh cua ddi tugng HTCCDDT cin nghien ciiu.<br /> - Buoc 2: BiSn ddi ding tri DTPT \k dang DTPT thdi gian keo dai hai doan tuygn tinh va<br /> md phdng tac ddng cua DSM theo cac dac trung tac ddng cua DSM.<br /> - Budc 3: Tinh toan cac chi tieu kinh te-ky thuat va tinh toan cac he sd tdn thit cdng suit<br /> cua HTCCDDT khdng xet den tac ddng ciia DSM.<br /> - Budc 4: Tinh toan tdn thit dien nang trong HTCCDDT va tinh chi phi tdn thit dien<br /> nang trong HTCCDDT theo cac dac trung tac ddng cua DSM.<br /> - Buoc 5: Tinh toan suat dau tu cdng suat dat CPtb'. Tinh toan chi phi diu tu hang nam<br /> cua HTCCDDT va chi phi tiet kiem dugc nhd hoan diu tu cdng suit dat theo cac dac<br /> trung tac ddng cua DSM.<br /> - Budc 6: Tinh toan chi phi cung cap dien nang hang nam, suit chi phi cung cip dien<br /> nang hang nam CEtb' theo cac dac tnmg tac ddng cua DSM. K^t luan tac ddng ciia<br /> DSM thdng qua cac do thi ket qua.<br /> <br /> <br /> 352<br />  //p/ nghi Khoa hgc ky nijm 35 ndm Vien Khoa hgc vd Cdng nghi Viet Nam - Hd Ndi 10/2010<br /> <br /> Ap dung bai toan Ddnh gid tdc ddng ciia DSM ddi vdi cdc chi tieu kinh ti- ky thudt khi dp<br /> dung DSM vdo 1 cdu true HTCCDDT cho ludi dien Thi xa tinh Tuyen Quang, theo cac budc<br /> tinh toan d tren, nhan dugc ket qua nhu trong bang 1.<br /> Bdng I: Kit qud tinh todn ddnh gid tdc ddng ciia DSM din tdn thdt diin ndng ngdy (AA) ciia<br /> ludi diin phdn phdi thi xd Tuyen Quang<br /> <br /> tsPmax Pmax' Tmax' Td dAd AAd AA 3i ra<br /> [kW] [kW] [Gia] [Gid] rp<br /> [kWh] [kWh] [kWh] [kWh] [10-']<br /> <br /> 0,00 8931,00 0,78 5564,06 - - -<br /> <br /> 69,57 8861,43 1,13 1,10 65,48 65,48 5563,47 0,59 0,008 0,90<br /> <br /> 139,14 8791,86 1,49 1,45 89,62 155,10 5562,67 0,80 0,011 0,89<br /> <br /> 208,71 8722,29 1,85 1,81 114,45 269,55 5561,67 1,01 0,014 0,88<br /> <br /> 278,29 8652,71 2,23 2,17 139,99 409,55 5560,45 1,21 0,017 0,87<br /> <br /> 347,86 8583,14 2,62 2,55 166,28 575,82 5559,03 1,42 0,020 0,85<br /> <br /> 417,43 8513,57 3,02 2,94 193,33 769,15 5557,41 1,63 0,023 0,84<br /> <br /> 487,00 8444,00 3,43 3,34 221,20 990,35 5555,57 1,83 0,026 0,83<br /> <br /> 556,57 8374,43 3,86 3,75 249,91 1240,26 5553,53 2,04 0,029 0,82<br /> <br /> 626,14 8304,86 4,30 4,17 279,51 1519,77 5551,28 2,25 0,032 0,80<br /> <br /> 695,71 8235,29 4,75 4,61 310,03 1829,80 5548,83 2,46 0,035 0,79<br /> <br /> 765,29 8165,71 5,22 5,06 341,53 2171,32 5546,17 2,66 0,038 0,78<br /> <br /> 834,86 8096,14 5,71 5,53 374,04 2545,36 5543,30 2,87 0,041 0,77<br /> <br /> 904,43 8026,57 6,21 6,01 407,62 2952,98 5540,22 3,08 0,044 0,75<br /> <br /> 974,00 7957,00 6,73 6,51 442,32 3395,31 5536,94 3,28 0,047 0,74<br /> <br /> 1043,57 7887,43 7,26 7,02 478,21 3873,51 5533,44 3,49 0,050 0,73<br /> <br /> 1113,14 7817,86 7,82 7,55 515,33 4388,84 5529,75 3,70 0,053 0,72<br /> <br /> 1182,71 7748,29 8,39 8,10 553,76 4942,60 5525,84 3,91 0,056 0,71<br /> <br /> 1252,29 7678,71 8,99 8,67 593,56 5536,17 5521,73 4,11 0,059 0,69<br /> <br /> 1321,86 7609,14 9,60 9,26 634,82 6170,99 5517,41 4,32 0,062 0,68<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> 353<br /> Tieu ban: Mdi trudng vd Ndng lugng ISBN: 978-604-913-013-7<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> APmax Pmax' Tmax' Td dAd AAd AA m rp<br /> ra<br /> [kW] [kW] [Gio] [Gio] [kWh] [kWh] [kWh] [kWh] [10-']<br /> <br /> 1391,43 7539,57 10,25 9,87 677,61 6848,60 5512,88 4,53 0,065 0,67<br /> <br /> 1461,00 7470,00 10,91 10,51 722,01 7570,61 5508,15 4,73 0,068 0,66<br /> <br /> 1530,57 7400,43 11,61 11,17 768,13 8338,74 5503,21 4,94 0,071 0,64<br /> <br /> 1600,14 7330,86 12,33 11,85 816,06 9154,81 5498,06 5,15 0,074 0,63<br /> <br /> 1669,71 7261,29 13,08 12,56 865,92 10020,73 5492,70 5,36 0,077 0,62-<br /> <br /> 1739,29 7191,71 13,86 13,31 917,81 10938,54 5487,14 5,56 0,080 0,61<br /> <br /> 1808,86 7122,14 14,68 14,08 971,88 11910,42 5481,37 5,77 0,083 0,59<br /> <br /> 1878,43 7052,57 15,53 14,88 1028,25 12938,67 5475,39 5,98 0,086 0,58<br /> <br /> 1948,00 6983,00 16,42 15,72 1087,08 14025,75 5469,21 6,18 0,089 0,57<br /> <br /> 2017,57 6913,43 17,36 16,59 1148,53 15174,27 5462,82 6,39 0,092 0,56<br /> <br /> 2087,14 6843,86 18,33 17,51 1212,78 16387,05 5456,22 6,60 0,095 0,54<br /> <br /> 2156,71 6774,29 19,36 18,47 1280,03 17667,08 5449,42 6,81 0,098 0,53<br /> <br /> 2226,29 6704,71 20,43 19,47 1350,49 19017,58 5442,40 7,01 0,101 0,52<br /> <br /> 2295,86 6635,14 21,56 20,52 1424,40 20441,98 5435,18 7,22 0,104 0,51<br /> <br /> 2365,43 6565,57 22,75 21,62 1502,02 21944,00 5427,76 7,43 0,107 0,49<br /> <br /> 2435,00 6496,00 24,00 22,78 1583,63 23527,63 5419,69 8,06 0,116 0,51<br /> <br /> Tir ket qua Bang 1 ta nit ra cac danh gia sau:<br /> + Sir thay ddi cua tdn that dien nang cua ludi dien phan phdi thi xa Tuyen Quang dudi<br /> tac ddng cua DSM:<br /> - Khi khdng cd tac ddng cua DSM, tdn that dien nang ldn nhit<br /> AAngay = 5564,06 kWh/ngay.<br /> - Khi cd tac ddng cua DSM, 6Pmax hoac AAd tang, tdn thit dien nang AAngay giam va dat<br /> cue tiiu bing 5419,69kWh/ngay khi DTPT dugc san phing (SP^ax = Pmax-Ptb)- Ty le<br /> giam tdn that dien nang ldn nhat 2,7%o so vdi khi khdng cd DSM. Ty le giam nay<br /> khdng ldn do DTPT thuc te ciia ludi dien phan phoi thi xa Tuyen Quang khdng cd tin<br /> so bien ddng cao, do nhap nhd khdng nhieu. Neu dd thi phu tai cang bing phing thi ty<br /> le tren day cang nhd.<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> 354<br />  Hdi nghi Khoa hgc ky niem 35 ndm Vien Khoa hgc vd Cdng nghe Viet Nam - Hd Ndi 10/2010<br /> <br /> <br /> + Hieu qua thay ddi ton that dien nang cua ludi dien phan phdi thi xa Tuyen Quang dudi<br /> tac ddng ciia DSM:<br /> - Ty le giam tdn that dien nang khi giam cdng suat dinh 1 kW (rp) tang din khi 5Pmax<br /> tang, trong tinh toan tren gia tri rp = 0,116 khi 6Pmax = 2435 kW.<br /> - Ty le giam tdn that dien nang khi giam dien nang dinh IkWh (rA) giam din khi SPmax tang.<br /> Hieu qua thay ddi tdn that dien nang nhu tren la do sir thay doi lugng giam tdn thit dien<br /> nang dinh va lugng tang tdn that thap diem theo cac dac tnmg cua DSM.<br /> - Tir ket qua danh gia hieu qua giam ton that dien nang cho thay giam ton thit la do su<br /> dich chuyen cua dien nang dinh nen danh gia hieu qua giam ton that se thich hgp hon<br /> neu dua vao dac trung tdng lugng giam dien nang dinh. Rd rang sir bien ddi nhanh hay<br /> cham cua dinh DTPT da lam cho bieu qua giam tdn that dien nang khi giam dien nang<br /> dinh 1 kWb giam dan khi DTPT cang bang phang.<br /> - Hieu qua giam tdn that dien nang tren day chi la ddi vdi sir thay ddi ciia cac dac trung<br /> cho tac ddng cua DSM (5Pmax va AAd), chua phai la hieu qua khi danh gia kinh te. Sir<br /> thay ddi DTPT tuong ung vdi 5Pmax va AAd chi la he qua tac ddng khi ap dung DSM.<br /> Ciing vi the ma chi phi cho DSM la bam sd cua 6Pmax va AAd. Sir thay ddi ciia chi phi<br /> cho DSM theo 6Pmax va AAd chi dugc xac dinh trong dieu kien cu the. Hieu qua kinh<br /> te chi dugc danh gia chinh xac khi so sanh chi phi cho DSM va cac Igi ich thu dugc<br /> trong dd cd Igi ich giam tdn that dien nang.<br /> Ket qua tinh toan danh gia tac ddng ciia DSM den suat dau tu cho thay [3]:<br /> - Suat dau tu cdng suat dat ciia HTCCDDT thuoc ludi dien phan phdi thi xa Tuyen Quanc<br /> giam khi tang 5Pmax va AAd. Quan he suat dau tu cdng suat dat Cptb' theo 6Pmax la tuyen<br /> tinh. Do dd, hieu qua giam suat dau tu cdng suat dat dudi tac dong cua DSM khdng doi doi<br /> vdi 6Pmax- Ddi vdi dac trung AAd suat dau tu cdng suat dat giam deu va cham dan.<br /> - Suat chi phi cung cap dien nang deu giam khi SPmax va AAd tang. Dd la do tac dong cua<br /> DSM lam giam chi phi tdn that va tang Igi ich do tri hoan vdn dau tu trong khi khong<br /> lam thay ddi cac thanh phan chi phi khac. Doi vdi dac tnmg 6Pmax, hieu qua giam Cetb'<br /> cang ldn khi DTPT cang bing phang. Trong khi dd, ddi vdi dac tnmg AAd, hieu qua<br /> giam suit chi phi cung cap dien nang giam cham dan khi DTPT tuong ddi bang phang.<br /> <br /> <br /> 3. KET LUAN<br /> Ket qua tinh toan, phan tich danh gia hieu qua khi ap dung DSM ddi vdi ludi dien cung<br /> cip thi xa Tuyen Quang cho thiy, khi lugng cong suit dinh giam 2,435MW thi tdn that dien<br /> nang trong ngay cua thi xa Tuyen Quang giam cue dai 144,3 7kWh/ngay (chiem 2,7%, tuong<br /> duong vdi 52,7MWh/nam, tilt kiem dugc khoang 36,89 ty dong tien dien ton thit moi nam),<br /> suit diu tu cdng suit dat giam tir 278Tr.d/MW/nam xudng 202Tr.d/MW/nam.<br /> Khi nha may xi mang Tan Quang tren dia ban xa Trang Da va cac nha may thep, nha may<br /> luyen gang trong khu cdng nghiep Long Binh An di vao boat dong, do thi phu tai cua thi xa<br /> Tuyen Quang sebiln ddng ldn. Khi dd viec ap dung DSM d thi xa Tuyen Quang se dem lai<br /> hieu qua cao hon va la cin thiit cho viec dam bao chat lugng dien nang cung cap tdi ngudi<br /> tieu dimg.<br /> Viec ap dung DSM vao ludi dien phan phdi thi xa Tuyen Quang la hieu qua va can dugc<br /> phd bien ap dung rdng rai trong cac hd tieu thu dien.<br /> <br /> 355<br /> Tiiu ban: Mdi tru&ng vd Ndng lugng ISBN: 978-604-913-013-7<br /> <br /> Giai quyet bai toan ddnh gid tdc ddng ciia DSM din cdc chi tieu kinh ti - ky thudt ciia<br /> HTCCDDT se cung cap nhiing thdng tin hiiu ich, hd trg cho cac nha quan ly ndi chung va cac nha<br /> quan ly nang lugng ndiriengtrong qua trinh ra quyet dinh ap dung DSM vao HTCCDDT ciia minh.<br /> <br /> <br /> TAI LIEU THAM KHAO<br /> 1. Bach Qudc Khanh, 2001, "Ddnh gid tdc ddng ciia qudn ly nhu cdu diin din cdc chi<br /> tieu kinh ti ky thudt, thdng sd cdu true hi thdng cung cdp diin dd thi vd khd ndng ung<br /> dung dieu khiin phu tdi bdng sdng trong HTCCDDT Viet Nam ", Luan an tien sy,<br /> Tmdng Dai hgc Bach Khoa Ha Ndi.<br /> 2. Tran Dinh Long, Dang Qudc Thdng, Nguyen Thudng, La Van Ut, Nguyen Van Dam,<br /> Dao Kim Hoa, 2004, "Nghiin cuu khd ndng ung dung DSM a Viet Nam ", Bao cao<br /> khoa hgc. Ma sd: KCDL-95.04.10, Bd KHCNMT, Ha Ndi.<br /> 3. Nguyen Quang Ninh, 2009, "Ddnh gid tdc ddng cua DSM den cdc chi tiiu kinh ti - ky<br /> thudt khi dp dung DSM trong hi thdng cung cdp diin do thi cua Thi xd Tuyen<br /> Quang", Luan van thac sy khoa hgc, Trudng Dai hgc Bach Khoa Ha Ndi.<br /> 4. Dang Qudc Thdng, Nguyen Thudng, Dao Kim Hoa, Bach Qudc Khanh, Nguyen Dinh<br /> Thang, 1998, "Ddnh gid tiim ndng tiit kiim diin ndng vd hiiu qud cua viec ieng dung<br /> DSM a Viet Nam", Bao cao khoa hgc. Ma sd: KHCN09.08.02, Bd KHCNMT, Ha Noi.<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> 356<br />