Lecture Probability & statistics: Chapter 1 - Bùi Dương Hải

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Lecture "Probability & statistics - Chapter 1: Intruction" has contents: Statistics is the fact, statistics, branches of statistics, data sources, population and sample, types of variable types of variable,... Invite you to consult the content.

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Nội dung Text: Lecture Probability & statistics: Chapter 1 - Bùi Dương Hải

PROBABILITY & STATISTICS (Bachelor Degree) Bui Duong Hai Faculty of Mathematical Economics - NEU haibd@neu.edu.vn www.mfe.edu.vn/buiduonghai 1 STATISTICS FOR MANAGEMENT– Bui Duong Hai – NEU – www.mfe.edu.vn/buiduonghai
Materials  TEXT BOOK: [1] Anderson, Sweeney, Williams, Camm, Cochran (2017), Statistics for Business and Economics, 12th Edition, South-Western. [2] Linda H., John F. (2013), Applied Statistics for Business and Management using Microsoft Excel, Springer. [3] Paul Newbold, William L. Carlson, Betty M. Thorne (2013), Statistics for Business and Economics, 8th Edtion, Pearson. PROBABILITY & STATISTICS – Bui Duong Hai – NEU – www.mfe.edu.vn/buiduonghai 2
Materials  SOFTWARE: • Microsoft Excel - Data Analysis Toolpak • IBM SPSS Package  Calculator  DATA and Others: www.mfe.edu.vn/buiduonghai : *Program* > *Class* • Bui Duong Hai (2016), Microsoft Excel Using for Statistics Practice, NEU (Vietnamese version) PROBABILITY & STATISTICS – Bui Duong Hai – NEU – www.mfe.edu.vn/buiduonghai 3
LECTURE 1 - INTRODUCTION  Concepts  Branches of Statistics  Elements of Statistics  [1] Chapter 1, pp. 1 – 29.  [2] Chapter 1, pp. 1 – 9. PROBABILITY & STATISTICS – Bui Duong Hai – NEU – www.mfe.edu.vn/buiduonghai 4
What is statistics ? Opinion Statistics It seems that there are In total of 16,000 NEU more female students than students, there are 10,000 male in the NEU. females (62.5%) and 6,000 males (37.5%). In general, the older the Age 20-29 30-39 40+ customer is, the less Average money they spend on high- 35 28 23 expense tech products. PROBABILITY & STATISTICS – Bui Duong Hai – NEU – www.mfe.edu.vn/buiduonghai 5
Why statistics ? Problem Statistics Should we invest in high- Retail Return (%) tech stocks rather than Manufaturing High-tech other industries? Construction 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% http://ptkt.vietstock.vn/ Whether the year 2018 would be strong growth period of the stock market in Vietnam? PROBABILITY & STATISTICS – Bui Duong Hai – NEU – www.mfe.edu.vn/buiduonghai 6
Statistics to …  Understand business environment  Provide information for decision making  Predict, forecast   Apply in all aspect of business, economics, management. PROBABILITY & STATISTICS – Bui Duong Hai – NEU – www.mfe.edu.vn/buiduonghai 7
Statistics is the fact ?  Yes, but No !  Information for Statistics  Statistics maybe biased  Without testing for correction of statistics, decision would be wrong  Statistics problem:  Accuracy of data?  Appropriate method? PROBABILITY & STATISTICS – Bui Duong Hai – NEU – www.mfe.edu.vn/buiduonghai 8
Example  Studying capacity of classes?  Compare popularity of two topics / trade marks / artists?  Evaluate investment projects?  Question: Other statistical issues in your life ? PROBABILITY & STATISTICS – Bui Duong Hai – NEU – www.mfe.edu.vn/buiduonghai 9
Statistics  Gathering data  Processing data  Presenting information  Analyzing data  higher level informatic results  Inference information Primary Superior Information Statistics Information (Data) (Result) PROBABILITY & STATISTICS – Bui Duong Hai – NEU – www.mfe.edu.vn/buiduonghai 10
Branches of Statistics  Two main branches:  Descriptive Statistics: organize, summarize, present data in convenient and informative way.  Inferential Statistics: predict, forecast, verify knowledge by analyzing data.  This course: fundamental methods and techniques of descriptive and inferential statistics in management. PROBABILITY & STATISTICS – Bui Duong Hai – NEU – www.mfe.edu.vn/buiduonghai 11
Data Sources  Primary and Secondary data  Primary data: observed / collected by the investigator for a specific purpose • From survey, questionnaire, records  Raw data  Process  Advantages: relevant to the purpose, flexible, deep information  Disadvantages: • Costly, not response, missing information • Errors by measures, surveying method,… PROBABILITY & STATISTICS – Bui Duong Hai – NEU – www.mfe.edu.vn/buiduonghai 12
Data Sources  Secondary data: collected in the past or other parties • Government, organizations, institutes,… • Published, on the internet, buying  Collect, process for purposes  Advantages • Official, high accuracy • Bigger data, less expense  Disadvantages • May not relevant to the purpose • Cannot survey further information PROBABILITY & STATISTICS – Bui Duong Hai – NEU – www.mfe.edu.vn/buiduonghai 13
Population and Sample  Population: set of all interested elements  Population size: N, maybe infinite  Value from population: parameter    Sample: subset of Population    Sample size: n, finite    Value from sample: statistic             PROBABILITY & STATISTICS – Bui Duong Hai – NEU – www.mfe.edu.vn/buiduonghai 14
Data set  Includes: Observation (each row) – Variable (each column) – Value (each cell) Variables English Maths No. Name Sex Age … Mark Score 1 Anderson M 19 A 8 … Observations 2 Becky F 20 C 9 … 3 Charles M 20 B 7 … … … … … …. …. PROBABILITY & STATISTICS – Bui Duong Hai – NEU – www.mfe.edu.vn/buiduonghai 15
Types of Variable  Qualitative and Quantitative  Qualitative (Categorical): Nominal and Ordinal • Nominal: incomparable values Ex.: Name, Address, Study Specification,… • Ordinal: comparable values but not calculated Ex.: Rank, Level, Shoe size,… • Special: Binary (dichotomous) variable: Ex.: Yes/No, Pass/Fail, Gender,  Qualitative: could be coded into number PROBABILITY & STATISTICS – Bui Duong Hai – NEU – www.mfe.edu.vn/buiduonghai 16
Types of Variables  Quantitative (Cardinal, Scale) variable: • Discrete vs Continuous  Discrete: Number of items, Score, Age  Continuous: Time, Length, • Interval vs Ratio:  Interval: plus, minus only  Ratio: divide, multiple are acceptable  Classification of Quantitative variable is not important PROBABILITY & STATISTICS – Bui Duong Hai – NEU – www.mfe.edu.vn/buiduonghai 17
Types of Variables Qualitative (Categorical) Quantitative (Scale) Nominal Ordinal Discrete Continuous Listing, Listing, Interval Ratio Grouping Grouping, Sorting, Listing, Grouping, Sorting Maybe ± Math operation: ±, , ÷, … Coded by numbers Used to rank PROBABILITY & STATISTICS – Bui Duong Hai – NEU – www.mfe.edu.vn/buiduonghai 18
Types of Variables More than 2 value ? Binary No Yes Comparable ? Nominal No Yes Can be Calculated ? Ordinal No Yes Scale PROBABILITY & STATISTICS – Bui Duong Hai – NEU – www.mfe.edu.vn/buiduonghai 19
Summarize  Concept of Statistics  Branches of Statistics  Primary and Secondary data  Population and Sample  Observation, Variable, Value  Types of Variable PROBABILITY & STATISTICS – Bui Duong Hai – NEU – www.mfe.edu.vn/buiduonghai 20