Quy mô thu ngân sách hợp lý Ước lượng cho trường hợp Việt Nam

Quy nno thu ngan sach hpp ly:<br /> udc lupng cho trudng hpp Viet Nann<br /> VU SY CUONG<br /> <br /> <br /> \ hdu het cdc qudc gia dang phdt triin tren the gidi, viec sd dung chinh sdch tdi khda di<br /> (J phuc vu cho muc tieu tang trUdng kinh te Id khd phd bien vd Viet Nam khong phdi Id<br /> trUdng hdp ngoqi le. Do yeu cdu khong ngttng tang len cua viec cdi thien chat lUdng cd sd hq<br /> tdng nin kinh te vd nhdm duy tri tdc do tdng trttdng kinh te cao, quy mo thu ngdn sdch cua<br /> Viet Nam trong GDP khong ngttng tdng len. Lieu Viet Nam cd nen tie'p tuc tdng quy mo ngdn<br /> sdch vd theo dudi chinh sdch tdng chi tieu cong phuc vu tang trudng? Nhdm trd ldi cdu hoi<br /> tren, sa dung mo hinh dinh Ittdng diia tren cdc dtt lieu phdn dnh trinh do phdt trien cua nen<br /> kinh te, bdi viet Udc lUdng quy mo thu ngdn sdch hdp ly cua Viet Nam ttt sau cdi each thue<br /> ndm 1991 de'n ndm 2008 vd so sanh nd vdi quy mo thu ngdn sdch thttc te; dong thdi dtta ra gdi<br /> y vi mat chinh sdch trong bdi cdnh suy thodi kinh te'hien nay.<br /> <br /> 1. Tong quan ve quy mo thu ngan sach budget constraint) trong cac doanh nghigp<br /> cua Viet Nam nha nUdc, Viet Nam da thanh cong trong viec<br /> Ke tii sau cai each thue vao d i u nhiing cat giam tham hut ngan sach va dn dinh<br /> nam 1990, quy mo thu ngan sach cua Viet kinh te vi md; (ii) giai doan 1997-2000, do<br /> Nam da cd thay ddi ldn. Hinh 1 cho thay rd anh hudng cua khung hoang kinh te Chau ,,<br /> xu hudng tang len ciia thu ngan sach nha qui md thu ngan sach da giam dang ke, chi<br /> nUdc so vdi GDP. Tuy nhien sii gia tang cua chie'm binh quan hang nam 20,7% GDP; (iii)<br /> quy md ngan sach la khdng dn dinh va bi phu giai doan 2001-2007, sii thay ddi tich ciic cua<br /> thupc vao tinh hinh kinh te. Cd the chia sii nen kinh te va x u i t k h i u d i u tho da cho<br /> thay ddi cua qui mo ngan sach lam 3 giai phep Nha nUdc tang nhanh quy mo thu ngan<br /> doan: (i) giai doan tii 1992-1996, khi chinh sach (toe dp tang thu ngan sach binh quan<br /> sach Ddi mdi tao ra dpng liic manh cho tang 20,5%/nam), dac biet trong ba nam 2006-<br /> trudng kinh te thi qui md thu ngan sach ciing 2008 quy mo thu ngan sach binh quan nam<br /> tang len rd ret. Thu ngan sach binh quan da chie'm tdi 28% GDP.' Tuy nhien, bat chap<br /> nam trong giai doan nay chie'm 22,2 % GDP. cac nd liic cai each hg thd'ng thu ngan sach<br /> Cling vdi viec t h i t chat chi tieu cong, nhat la qua thue, ngudn thu ngoai thue vSn giQ vai<br /> viec thiic hien cac bien phap n h i m ban chd trd khong nhd. Dieu nay lam giam tinh dn<br /> van de "gidi han ngan sach mem" (soft dinh cua ngan sach nha nUdc \ - ;• ,•<br /> <br /> HINH 1: Thu ngan sach nha nvidc so vdi GDP (1991-2007) : •?*•<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007<br /> <br /> Ngudn: Tinh toan ciha tic gia theo s(S lieu ciia B6 Tai chinh v^ Tdng ciic Thdng ke.<br /> <br /> Vu Sy Qrdng, TS., Hoc vien TM chinh.<br /> 1. Trong khuPn kh6 bki vi^t niy chiing t6i khfing di s4u them v^ via di nsly.<br /> <br /> <br /> 10<br />  Quy md thu ngSn sdch<br /> <br /> <br /> De danh gia tdng quan quy mo thu ngan nUdc nay v i n cao hdn dang ke so vdi cac<br /> sach cua Viet Nam, chiing tdi thiic hien so nUdc dang phat trien.<br /> sanh ty le thu ngan sach/GDP vdi cac nUdc Hai Id, h i u het cac nUdc XHCN cii trong<br /> tren thg' gidi qua cac thdi ky. Cac nUdc nay qua trinh chuyen ddi deu co' ging c l t giam<br /> dupc chia thanh nhdm theo khu vtic dia ly quy md thu ngan sach.<br /> va theo trinh dp phat trien. Ngoai ra, chiing Ba la, quy md thu ngan sach cua Viet<br /> tdi Cling so sanh sii thay ddi quy md thu Nam da tang len rat n h a n h ke tii nhiing<br /> ngan sach ciia Viet Nam vdi cac nUdc trong nam 1990. Nhin chung, thu ngan sach<br /> he thdng XHCN cu, ndi ma trong qua khU, trong nhiing nam gan day cua Viet Nam<br /> thu ngan sach nha nUdc titng chie'm vai trd cao hdn so vdi ty le trung binh cua cac<br /> dac biet quan trpng. So sanh ddn gian nay nUdc dang phat trien ndi chung va ciia cac<br /> cho phep nhin nhem quy md cua cac khoan nUdc dang phat trien cd thu nh&p thap ndi<br /> thu cdng so vdi GDP va p h i n nao cho thay rieng. Dieu nay cung diing khi so sanh vdi<br /> vai trd cua khu vUc nha nUdc ddi vdi nen<br /> ty le thu ngan sach/GDP trung binh cua<br /> kinh te. Quan sat cac so' lieu trong bang 1<br /> cac nUdc khu viic Chau A - Thai Binh<br /> chiing toi c6 mpt vai nhftn xet^:<br /> Dudng. Ganh nang ngan sach cdng cua<br /> Mot Id, trong th^p nien 1990, h i u het cac Viet Nam cdn cd the ldn hdn tinh toan tren<br /> nUdc cong nghiep thupc khdi OEDC deu cd neu cd du dii lieu ve cac khoan thu ma<br /> xu hudng c l t giam quy md ngan sach, n h i t ngUdi dan phai ganh chiu nhUng hien chUa<br /> la do anh hudng ciia trUdng phai trpng cung dupc quyi't toan d i y dii vao ngan sach nha<br /> khi dd dang thinh hanh d cac nUdc ndi tie'ng nUdc, dac biet la cac khoan thu d dia<br /> Anh. Tuy nhien quy mo thu ngan sach d cac phUdng.<br /> BANG 1: So s a n h q u y m o t h u n g a n sach c u a Viet N a m vdi cac nxidc t r e n t h e gidi<br /> <br /> 1987-1989 1991-1994 1996-1999 2001-2004<br /> <br /> Cdc nudc dang phdt trien 20,8 19,8 19,6 20,5<br /> <br /> Chau Phi Sahara 19,4 19,8 20,8 19,2<br /> <br /> Trung D6ng- Bic Phi 26,1 25,7 26,2 26,7<br /> <br /> My Latinh \k Caribe 20,1 20,6 20,7 19,8<br /> <br /> Nam A 15,9 15,2 15,0 14,8<br /> <br /> E»ng A-Thii Binh Duong 17,1 18,4 19,8 18,8<br /> Ddng Au vd cdc nitac thudc Lien Xd cu 41,8' 30,5 28,5 31,1<br /> Khd'i cdc nUdc cdng nghiep(OCDE) 34,5 36,1 34,0 33,8<br /> <br /> Viet Nam 13,9 19,2 21,1 24,1<br /> <br /> Cdc nudc thu nhiip thdp 16,3 16,7 17,1 18,2<br /> <br /> • D6ng Au vk Lien X6.<br /> Ngudn: Tinh toin ciia tac gia theo s6 lieu ciia He thtfng tM chinh toSin cSu (GFS)- Quy iiin te qu6c t6 (IMF) vi<br /> thrfng ke ciia cic qutfc gia lien quan.<br /> 2. Cin chti ^ la trong so sanh niy chung tOi coi<br /> Song viec so sanh ddn gian qua bdng 1 phuong phip thtfng ke vi tmh toin cic si5 lieu li tuong<br /> khong cho ph^p chiing tdi tra ldi cau hdi la d6i d6ng nhit mic dil tren thuc t€ vin c6 khic biet v6<br /> lieu ganh nang ngan sach ciia Vi$t Nam cd cich thilc tinh toin cic chi si5 vi mO giOa cic qu(5c gia.<br /> <br /> Nghiin ciru Kinh tg s63T5- Thing 8/2009<br /> 11<br />  Quy mo thu ngdn sdch ...<br /> <br /> <br /> qua ldn so vdi trinh dp phat trien cua nen - Ty le do thi hda cao la yeu to' thuan ldi<br /> kinh te hay khdng? Trong p h i n 2, chiing tdi cho tang quy mo thu ngan sach vi nd tao<br /> sii dung mdt md hinh dinh lUpng do lUPng quy dieu kien cho thu ngan sach d l dang hdn,<br /> md thu ngan sach theo cac ye'u td phan anh dac biet la thue bat dpng san. Ty le dd thi<br /> miic dp phat trien ciia mdi qud'c gia va ap hda cao ciing phan anh trinh dp phat trien<br /> dung md hinh nay de tinh toan cho Viet Nam. cua qud'c gia va do vfty tac ddng tich ciic tdi<br /> 2. Quy m o n g a n s a c h c u a Viet N a m : kha nang thu ngan sach.<br /> lieu CO t h u n h i e u hcfn q u y m o hofp - Do md cua nen kinh te crnig la nhan to'<br /> ly? anh hucing tich ciic tdi viec tang quy mo<br /> 2.1. PhUdng phdp tinh todn quy mo ngan sach trong cac qud'c gia dang phat<br /> ngdn sdch hdp ly trien. Dieu nay cd the giai thich bdi hai ly do<br /> chinh: (i) da so' cac nUdc dang phat trien ap<br /> Xac dinh quy md thu ngan sach hpp ly la<br /> dung mpt he thd'ng thue suat cao vdi hang<br /> v i n de da dUdc cac nha kinh te quan tam tii<br /> hda x u i t nhap khau; va (ii) md cuta nen kinh<br /> lau. Tuy nhien v i n de nay vap phai nhieu<br /> te Cling tao dieu kien lam tang GDP va thu<br /> khd khan vi khong cd md hinh ly thuyet<br /> nhap binh quan d i u ngUdi nen lam tang<br /> kinh te nao chi ra chinh xac can thu ngan<br /> ngudn thu^.<br /> sach. Vi vay de Udc tinh quy md ngan sach<br /> hdp ly, cac nha kinh te da sut dung cac md - Tai cac nUdc dang phat trien, xuat<br /> hinh thiic nghiem qua danh gia anh hudng khau cac san pham thd, dac biet la d i u khi<br /> cua cac nhan to' tdi kha nang thu ngan sach cd vai trd rat quan trpng vdi thu ngan sach.<br /> ciia mdt qudc gia. Cac nhan td nay ciing Day Cling la ngudn thu de dang vdi chi phi<br /> phan anh cho trinh dp phat t'-ien cua nen thu thap. Vi vay, xudt khdu ddu thd dUdc coi<br /> kinh te trong mdi giai doan nhat dinh. la nhan to' cd anh hudng tich ciic tdi quy mo<br /> Nhiing nghien ciiu dinh lUpng ve cac nhan thu ngan sach d cac nUdc nay.<br /> td anh hudng den thu ngan sach, ma dac - Chinh sach tien te cung tac ddng tdi kha<br /> biet la thu thue da dupc bat d i u tii Lotz va nang thu ngan sach vi nd anh hudng tdi lam<br /> Mors (1967, 1970), Bahl R.W. (1971), sau dd phdt ma nhan to' nay cd anh hudng tieu ciic tdi<br /> tie'p tuc dupc phat trien bdi cac tac gia khac kha nang thu ngan sach (hieu ilng Tanzi -<br /> nhu: Tanzi V. (1987), Tanzi V. va H.H. Zee Olivera^. Mot so' nghien ciiu ciing da khang<br /> (2000), Teera J.M. va J. Hudson (2004) ... dinh hieu iing nay (Chambas et al. 2005).<br /> Hau het cac nghien ciiu deu cho t h i y quy<br /> md thu ngan sach cua mpt qUd'c gia chiu anh 3. Xem them nghien ctiu cita BURGESS ROBERT<br /> hudng bdi cac ye'u td' sau; and STERN NICOLAS. 1993. "Taxation and<br /> Development." Journal of Economic Literature, vol. 31<br /> Thu nhqp binh qudn ddu ngttdi anh No.2, pp. 762-830.<br /> hucing tich ciic tdi quy md thu ngan sach 4. Xem them TORGLER B. 2003. "Tax morale in<br /> Dieu nay cd the dUdc giai thich la mpt qudc transition countries." Post-Communism Economies, vol.<br /> 15 (3), pp. 357-81. vi ALM JAMES and TORGLER<br /> gia cang giau cd thi kha nang thu thue cang BENNO. 2006. "Culture differences and tax morale in<br /> cad^. Hpn niia trong cac qud'c gia phat trien the United States and in Europe." Journal of Economic<br /> thi kha nang cung cap cac hang hda cdng Psychology, vol. 27(2), pp. 224-46.<br /> cpng vdi chat lUdng tdt ciing lam tang y thiic 5. Tuy nhien, d6 md ciia n^n kinh te it tie d6ng toi<br /> ngUdi dan trong cac khoan ddng gdp cong''. quy m6 ngin sach cac nudc phit tridn (Chambas vi<br /> cpng stj, 2005) vi vai tro ciia thue' xuit nhip khiu giam<br /> - Ty trgng ngdnh sdn xudt nong nghiep di ro ret cung vcti qua trinh phit tridn kinh t€. Do viy,<br /> trong GDP cao lam giam kha nang thu ngan diy khdng the' coi la ngudn thu 6n dinh v6 dai han.<br /> sach, vi thu nhap han che cua khu viic nay 6. Tanzi-Olivera effect li hieu litig giai thich tinh<br /> trang gia tri thiJc ciia cic khoan thu ngin sich bi sut<br /> va dac diem san xuat phan tan cua nd khien giam trong thdi ky lam phit cao do tic d6ng ciia tinh xsh<br /> cho viec thu thud it hieu qua. trong viec thu thufi vi chi phi thu cao hon.<br /> <br /> <br /> 12 Nghign ciru Kinh tg so 375- Thing 8/2009<br />  Quy mfi thu ngdn sdch<br /> <br /> <br /> Cac nghien ciiu g i n day (Togler (2003), Trong do: i la dai di$n qud'c gia thii i va t<br /> Bhd et al. (2004)) cho rang ngoai cac nhan td la dai dien cho nam t, U; la dai lUdng phan<br /> kinh te thi yeu td the ch§' cung anh hudng tdi anh hieu iing rieng cua tiing nUdc tdi ket qua<br /> kha nang thu ngan sach cua mdt qud'c gia. danh gia va pit la sai so'cua md hinh.<br /> Chat Ittdng qudn tri cua chinh quyen la mpt He so' cua cac bien tinh tii md hinh (2) se<br /> trong nhiing ye'u to' cd anh hudng tich ciic tdi dCing de tinh Y^,, gia tri the hien kha nang<br /> viec thu thue, quan ly chi tieu cdng va vi vay thu ngan sach hdp ly theo trinh dp phat trien<br /> anh hudng tdi quy md ngan sach'. cua mdi qud'c gia. Tie'p theo, chiing tdi so<br /> Trong nghien ciiu nay, ke thiia cac nghien sanh Ytn vdi sd lieu thu ngan sach thiic te ciia<br /> Cliu dinh lUdng mdi ve quy md thu ngan sach Viet Nam de tra ldi cho cau hdi dat ra tren<br /> cua Zee H. (1996), Chambas G. et al (2005), day. Neu sd thu thttc te'/Y,„ ldn hdn 1 cd<br /> Teera J.M. va J. Hudson (2004), chiing tdi sii nghia la qud'c gia dang huy dpng ldn hdn quy<br /> dung mpt md hinh dinh lUdng cd dang sau de md thu ngan sach hdp ly. Vi vay can phai cd<br /> Udc lUdng anh hudng cua cac nhan td' tdi quy bien phap de "khoan siic dan" va giam di quy<br /> md thu ngan sach cua mdt qud'c gia, tii do ap md chi tieu cdng n h i m giam ap lUc tang thu<br /> dung cho trUPng hdp cua Viet Nam: ngan sach.<br /> Y = f(LGDP, AEG, URB, OPEN, OIL, IFL, 2.2. Kit qud udc lUdng mo hinh vd<br /> QuGO'V) (1) tinh todn cho Viet Nam<br /> Trong dd; Y la quy md thu ngan sach do Nhu da de cfip d tren, trong bai viet nay<br /> bang ty sd giiia thu ngan sach nha nUdc chiing tdi sii dung 2 phUdng phap Udc lUdng<br /> (khdng ke vien trd) va GDP; LGDP la Idgarit cho sd'lieu gdp (panel data) la phUdng phap<br /> cua thu nh&p binh quan dau ngUdi (tinh theo hieu Ung cd' dinh (Fixed Effects) va hieu<br /> Stic mua tUdng dUdng); ARG la ty trpng gia iing ngau nhien (Random Effects). Viec liia<br /> tri nganh san xuat ndng nghiep trong GDP; chpn phUPng phap Udc lUdng toi Uu dUpc<br /> URB la miic dp dd thi hda (ty le ngUdi sdng d thiic hien thdng qua kiem dinh Hausman<br /> khu vtic dd thi); OPEN la dp md cua nen kinh (Green, 2004). Ket qua kiem dinh cho thay<br /> te; OIL la ty trpng gia tri x u i t khau diu thd phUPng phap Fixed Effects la phii hpp hPn.<br /> trong tdng gia tri x u i t khau; IFL la ty le lam Dieu nay cd nghia la sii di biet cua mdi<br /> phat va QuGOV la chit lUdng quan tri cua qud'c gia ciing la mdt nhan to' giai thich<br /> chinh quyen (lay theo danh gia ciia Ngan kha nang thu ngan sach cua qud'c gia dd.<br /> hang The gidi). Chung tdi ciing sii dung kiem dinh<br /> Chiing tdi sii dung dii lieu cua 82 nUdc Breusch va Pagan de dam bao xem xet<br /> dang phat tridn cd thu nhap trung binh va hien tUpng phUPng sai ciia sai sd' thay ddi<br /> thip trong giai doan 1991-2004 de tinh toan. (heteroscedasticity)'. De dam bao tinh viing<br /> Sd heu dupc lly tit cac ngudn nhU: Ngan ciia md hinh, chiing tdi da Udc lUpng lai md<br /> hang The gidi (WB), Ngan hang Tai thie't hinh theo phUdng phap White n h i m sufa<br /> Chau Au (EBRD), Ngan hang Phat trien chiia hien tupng heteroscedasticity. Cac ket<br /> Chau Phi (AFDB), Quy tien te qud'c te OMF). qua Udc lUdng b i n g phUdng phap Fixed<br /> Ke't hdp sd heu theo nUdc va theo nam Effects dUdc trinh bay trong bang 2.<br /> (panel-data) cho phep chiing tdi sii dung cac<br /> phUdng phap tinh toan hien dai trong kinh te<br /> lUdng n h i m dat ket qua td't hdn phUdng phap 7. Xem them BIRD R., MARTINEZ-VASQUEZ J<br /> and TORGLER B. 2004. "Societal Institution and tax<br /> binh phUdng nhd nhat thdng thUdng (OLS).<br /> effort in developing countries." Working Paper.<br /> Md hinh Udc lUdng cu the cd dang sau: International Studies Program Andrew Young School of<br /> Yi,= a+ p,LGDPi,+ P2ARGi,+ p3URBi,+ P40PENi,+ Policy Study- Georgia State University.<br /> PsOILit+PsffU+PTQuGOVii + Ui+Mit (2) 8. Kft qua x2 (1)= 45.5 vdi xic suit > x2= 0.00<br /> <br /> <br /> Nghiin ciru Kinh tg sS 375 - Thing 8/2009 13<br />  Quy md thu ngdn sdch ...<br /> <br /> <br /> Ke't qua tinh toan cho thay d i u he so' cua bien gid^ de phan anh tac ddng cua tang<br /> cac bien la phii hdp vdi nhan dinh d tren va trUdng tdi quy mo thu ngan sach va de xem<br /> cd y nghia ve mat thd'ng ke. Ket qua nay xet xu hudng thu ngan sach ciia Viet Nam<br /> khang dinh lai r i n g quy md thu ngan sach trong giai doan nghien cUu (1991-2004). Ket<br /> phu thupc vao trinh dp phat trien cua mdi qua cho thay, khi kinh te phat trien thuan ldi<br /> qud'c gia (cd cau kinh te va miic dp dd thi (td'c dp tang GDP cao), Viet Nam thUdng huy<br /> hda), gia tri x u i t khau d i u md, dp md cua dpng ngan sach cao hdn trung binh cac nUdc<br /> nen kinh te, sii dn dinh ciia chinh sach kinh trong mau nghien ciiu^°. Cd the giai thich<br /> te vi md. Kdt qua Udc lUdng ciing cho t h i y dieu nay b i n g viec Chinh phu Viet Nam<br /> r i n g chit lupng quan tri cua chinh quyen mud'n tan dung cd hdi tang trUdng kinh te de<br /> anh hudng tich ciic tdi quy md thu ngan cai thien quy md ngan sach. Tuy nhien, ve<br /> sach. Ndi each khac khdng nen duy tri quy dai ban thi dieu nay chUa han da cd ldi, vi nd<br /> md ngan sach/GDP qua cao trong khi trinh lam giam tiet kiem trong dan chung va tii dd<br /> dp quan tri ciia chi'nh quyen ban che. tac dpng de'n kha nang d i u tU cua cac thanh<br /> Chiing tdi ciing dUa them vao md hinh hai phan kinh te ngoai nha nUdc.<br /> BANG 2 : Lfdc lifdng cac nhan to anh hxidng d e n quy m o n g a n sach<br /> Effets fixes<br /> 1 2 3 4 5<br /> Lgdp 0.742* 1.162* 1.175* 1.480* 1.057*<br /> (0.711) (0.636) (0.643) (0.801) (0.579)<br /> ARG -0.120*** -0.157** -0.165* -0.151** -0.159**<br /> (-3.927) (-2.898) (-2.384) (-2.781) (-2.933)<br /> URB 0.069* 0.201* 0.220* 0.187* 0.197*<br /> (1.11) (1.849) (1.809) (1.711) (1.812)<br /> IFL -0.002** -0.006* -0.008* -0.007* -0.006*<br /> (-3.624) (-0.561) (-1.091) (-0.732) (-0.603)<br /> OPEN 0.016* 0.017* 0.018* 0.018* 0.017*<br /> (1.213) (1.261) (1.252) (1.280) (1.208)<br /> OIL 0.113*** 0.071** 0.071** 0.075** 0.072**<br /> (8.757) (2.989) (3.287) (3.121) (3.016)<br /> QuGOV 0.087* 0.090* 0.090** 0.083*<br /> (2.517) (1.700) (2.613) (2.420)<br /> Dl -0.646<br /> (-1.150)<br /> D1*D2 2.837<br /> (1.384)<br /> R-squared 0.346 0.361 0.890 0.364 0.369<br /> N.of obs 938 409 409 409 409<br /> N. nin kinh t^ 82 82 82 82 82<br /> Ghi chu: (i) C6t 3 duoc udc lupng Fixed Effects theo phuang phip White; (ii) gii tri thcing ke t trong ngoac; (iii)<br /> ***, **, * lin luat cho biet mtic y nghia 1%, 5 % vi 10 %; (iv) he s6 ehan a khPng gidi thieu trong bang.'<br /> <br /> 9. Bien Dl co gia tri = 1 khi ttfc d6 tang tnldng kinh tg cua mpt nin kinh te' > 6,5% vi = 0 tiong tmcmg hpp ngupc lai.<br /> Bie'n D2 = 1 trong tnrdng hpp Viet Nam vi bang 0 trong cic tmcmg hap khic. Chung tPi udc luong hai trucmg hop- (i) Dl<br /> tach rieng, (ii) Dl duoc danh gii ke't hop vdi D2.<br /> 10. Tuy nhien cic he s6 nay khPng co J? ngMa thtfng ke nen co th6 chi coi nhu m6t tham khao cin c6 dinh gii siu hon.<br /> <br /> <br /> 14 NghiSn cdu Kinh tgs6375 - Thing 8/2009<br />  Quy md thu ngdn sdch<br /> <br /> <br /> Sli dung cac he so' thu dupc qua Udc doan 1992-1996 va 2002-2008 thi cao hdn<br /> lupng md hinh tren, chiing toi Udc tinh quy mUc tiem nang. Dac biet, quy md thu ngan<br /> md thu ngan sach nha nUdc hdp ly cua sach giai doan 2004-2007 da cao hdn mUc<br /> Viet Nam ve mat ly t h u y e t " , sau dd so thu tiem nang cua nen kinh te tdi 26%.<br /> sanh nd vdi quy mo thu ngan sach thiic te Chiing tdi cung Udc lUdng chenh lech quy mo<br /> (the hien d hinh 2). ngan sach thiic te va tiem nang cho nhdm<br /> Hinh 2 cho thiy, ngoai trcf nam 1991, cac nUdc Ddng Nam A'^ Ke't qua cho thay<br /> Viet Nam ludn thu ngan sach ldn hdn hoac h i u bet cac qud'c gia nay deu cd thu ngan<br /> b i n g miic trung binh hdp ly. Tuy nhien dp sach t h i p hdn hoac sat miic hdp ly. He so'<br /> chenh lenh giiia quy md thu thiic te va hdp chenh lech cao (giiia thu ngan sach thiic te<br /> ly khac nhau tuy tiing giai doan. Giai doan /quy mo hdp ly) cua Viet Nam cd the so sanh<br /> 1997-2001, quy md thu ngan sach cua Viet vdi trudng hpp cho mpt so' nUdc dang chuyen<br /> Nam sat vdi miic tiem nang, trong khi giai ddi Ddng Au (xem Auriel va Wartlers, 2005).<br /> HINH 2: So sanh quy mo thu ngan sach thvtc te va quy mo hdp ly cua Viet N a m<br /> giai doan 1991-2008<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> Chu thich: He s6 chenh lech = Quy mP ngin sich thuc te'/Quy mfl thu NSNN hop If tinh tit mfl hinh. Nam 2008 li<br /> s6 heu udc tinh.<br /> X6t tdng quan, vai trd cua ngan sach md thu ngan sach n h i m dap iing cac ddi<br /> nha nUdc ci Viet Nam qua ldn so vdi trinh hdi ngay cang tang cua chi tieu ngan sach<br /> dp phat trien cua nen kinh te. Do vfty cd nha nUdc. Diiu nay cd the giai thich mpt<br /> the gay ra "hieu iing thoai lui" (crowding- p h i n la do Viet Nam dang theo dudi md<br /> out effect) can trd sii tham gia ciia khu vyc hinh tang trUdng theo chieu rdng va de cd<br /> kinh tg' ngoai nha nUdc vao viec phat trien the duy tri td'c dp tang trUdng cao thi Nha<br /> kinh tS'. nUdc bupc phai md rpng quy mo cac khoan<br /> 1. Md rong chi t i e u c o n g phuc v u chi d i u tu tii ngan sach i)ha nUdc.<br /> t a n g trifding k i n h te: mo hinh<br /> t h i e u b e n viing 11. Vl chit luong quan tri cua Chinh phti li bign<br /> dupc dinh gii 2 nam Ain, nen Ai phuc via cho tinh toin<br /> Ket qua dang chii y n h i t ma chiing tdi chung tfli coi nhu bie'n stf niy khflng thay d6i trong 2<br /> thu dupc qua nghien ciiu nay la Viet Nam nim.<br /> dang theo dudi mpt chinh sach tai khda 12. Trong khufln kh6 bii vift, chung tfli khflng gidi<br /> khdng ben viing vdi viec tang nhanh quy thieu chi lift kft qua niy, co th^ xem them VU, 2008.<br /> <br /> <br /> Nghiin ciru Kinh tg s6375- Thing 8/2009 15<br />  Quy mo thu ngan sdch<br /> <br /> <br /> Md hinh tang trUdng nay la khdng dn dinh phat trien vUdt qua 30% GDP thi tac ddng cua<br /> ve dai ban. Chi tieu cong cin phai dUdc duy nd vdi phat trien kinh te va hieu qua cung cap<br /> tri d quy md phii hdp, cac nghien ciiu kinh te hang hda cdng giam di rd ret (d quy md nay<br /> lupng gan day" cho t h i y chi tieu tii ngan sach chi phi bien ciia viec tang thu ngan sach bing<br /> nha nUdc khi vUpt qua mdt ngUdng nhat dinh vdi ldi ich bien cua viec cung cap hang hda<br /> thi trd len kem hieu qua. Nghien ciiu cua cdng cpng). Do vay, ve dai ban khdng nen sii<br /> Tanzi V. va S. L. (1997) cho thay, neu quy md dung tang chi tieu cdng nhU mpt bien phap de<br /> chi tieu ngan sach cdng trong cac nUdc dang phuc vu tang trudng.<br /> B A N G 3: So s a n h quy m o chi n g a n sach cua Viet N a m va cac nvfdfc trong khu vtfc (% GDP)<br /> <br /> 1990 1995 2000 2006 2007 2008<br /> Trung QuiSc 18,5 12,2 16,3 19,2 19,3 20,8<br /> H6ng Cong 14,3 16,4 17,7 15,5 14,5 18,9<br /> Han Quoc 15,5 15,8 18,9 24,3 23,3 24,4<br /> Dai Loan 14,5 14,4 15,4 18,7 18,0 20,6<br /> Indflnexia 19,6 14,7 15,8 20,1 18,2 19,9<br /> Malaixia 27,7 22,1 22,9 24,9 25,0 26,5<br /> Phihppin 20,4 18,2 19,3 17,3 17,3 17,0<br /> Xingapo 21,3 16,1 18,8 13,8 14,7 17,5<br /> Thai Lan 13,9 15,4 17,3 16,4 18,3 17,3<br /> Viet Nam 21,9 23.9 23,4 30,9 33,1 31,0<br /> <br /> Nguon: ADB, 2006 vi 2009.<br /> De xem xet quy md chi tieu cdng cua Viet trp tang trUdng cao. Do vay, Viet Nam khdng<br /> Nam, chung tdi so sanh chi tieu nay qua cac cd nhieu khdng gian cho viec thiic hien cac<br /> nam va vdi cac nUdc trong khu viic. Sd' lieu chinh .sach tai khda trong trUdng hdp b i t trie<br /> cua bang 3 cho thay vi muc tieu tang trudng nhu trong giai doan suy thoai kinh te the gidi<br /> kinh te, quy md chi ngan sach cua Viet Nam hien nay. Ciing can chu y ring, do quy mo<br /> lien tuc dUdc tang trong giai doan 2000-2007. ngan sach tang len nhanh chdng nhd vao<br /> Trong nhiing nam g i n day, ciing vdi tham xuat khau d i u thd nhiing nam g i n day da<br /> hut ngan sach ludn d sat miic 5% GDP cho dan tdi tinh trang chi tieu cong d i dai hdn-<br /> phep cua Qud'c hdi, trong khi lien tuc tang mdt bieu hien cua v i n de "can benh Ha Lan"<br /> quy md thu ngan sach thi chi tieu cdng ciia ma hau qua cua nd ve dai han la sii b i t dn<br /> Vi$t Nam trong 2 nam 2006-2007 da vUdt trong phat trien kinh te.<br /> qua 30% GDP. Do quy md thu da qua cao va<br /> 4. Ke't l u a n j<br /> do ngudn thu ngan sach khdng dn dinh d i n<br /> den he qua Viet Nam khdng the tie'p tuc tang Trong khudn khd bai viet nay chiing toi<br /> (uy md chi ngan sach/GDP vao nam 2008 de da chi ra r i n g , do viec duy tri quy md ngan<br /> ddi phd vdi khiing hoang. Dieu nay ngUdc vdi sach cao hdn nhieu quy mo ngan sach hdp ly<br /> ;u the ciia cac nUdc nhU Trung Qud'c, Han da lam han che rat nhieu khdng gian liia<br /> }udc hay Xingapo khi hp da tang manh quy chpn chinh sach cho Viet Nam trong giai<br /> md chi tieu ngan sach nam 2008. doan nen kinh te mat dn dinh nhU hien nay.<br /> Do tac ddng ciia k h u n g h o a n g k i n h td the<br /> Tdm lai, khi theo dudi md hinh tang<br /> trUdng theo chieu rdng, Viet Nam da lam 13. Tanzi va Schuknecht (1998) hoac Kolodko<br /> dung chi tieu cdng nhU mpt each thiic de hd (2000).<br /> <br /> 16 Nghiin ciiu Kinh tgs6375 - Thing 8/2009<br />  Quy mfl thu ngdn sdch<br /> <br /> <br /> gidi, Viet Nam se phai doi m a t vdi h a n g TAI LifiU THAM KHAO<br /> loat cac v i n de nhU t h a m h u t ngan sach, 1. Aim James vi Torgler Benno. 2006. "Culture<br /> differences and tax morale in the United States and in<br /> lam phat, t h a m h u t can can vang lai. Day Europe." Journal of Economic Psychology, vol. 27(2),<br /> la bai toan khdng d i dang cho viec hoach pp. 224-46.<br /> dinh chinh sach ciia Viet N a m trong nam 2. Auriole E. vi M. 'Wartlers. 2005. "Taxation base<br /> nay, n h a t la khi Chinh p h u can cd cac giai in Developing countries." Journal of Publics<br /> Economics, vol. 89, pp. 625-46.<br /> phap de h a n chi' suy giam k i n h te. Qua 3. Bahl R.'W. 1971. "A regression approach to tax<br /> nghien ciiu nay chiing toi cho r i n g , Chinh effort and tax ratio analysis." Staff paper-IMF, vol. 18,<br /> phu nen tap t r u n g cd c l u lai n i n kinh te pp. 570-612.<br /> va cai thi$n hieu qua sii dung ngan sach 4. Bird R., Martinez-Vasquez J vi Torgler B. 2004.<br /> "Societal Institution and tax effort in developing<br /> hdn la tim each giai n g a n cang nhieu cang countries." Working Paper. International Smdies<br /> tdt. Nghien ciiu nay ciing cho thay mac dii Program Andrew Young School of Policy Study-<br /> it ed tac dpng ngay l&p tiic, nhUng ve dai Georgia State University.<br /> h a n thi c l t giam t h u e se la bien phap ed 5. Burgess Robert vi Stem Nicolas. 1993. "Taxation<br /> and Development." Journal of Economic Literature, vol.<br /> hieu qua hdn la hd trd lai s u i t . Hdn niia, 31 No.2, pp. 762-830.<br /> ho trd lai s u i t la bien phap cd r u i ro n h i t 6. Chambas G6rard vi cflng su. 2005. Afrique du sud<br /> dinh vdi dn dinh vi mo ve dai h a n khi nguy du Sahara Mobiliser des ressources fiscales pour le<br /> cd lam phat cao chUa phai da het v^ ehinh developpement. Paris: Economica.<br /> 7. Green W.H. 2004 Econometric Analysis , Prentice<br /> sach n i y h i u nhU khong eo tac dung thiie Hall, 5th Edition, 2004.<br /> d i y eae doanh nghigp cai thien hi$u qua 8. Ngin hing Thi giiSi (WB). 2005, 2006- Bio cio<br /> Sli dung cae ngudn liic. phit tri^n Viet Nam.<br /> 9. Romer, C. V i D. Romer 2008. The<br /> Mac du cac gdi kich e l u la e i n t h i i t Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates<br /> trong n g i n han, nhUng Chinh phu c i n cd Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks - Working<br /> Paper - University of Califomia-Berkely.<br /> danh gia tac ddng cua chinh sach tai khda 10. Quy Ti^n te qu6c ii (IMF). 2009 Country Report<br /> md rpng hien nay tdi nen kinh tg' trong dai No 09/110.<br /> han. Dd'i vdi chinh saeh tki khda, trong bdi 11. Tanzi Vito. 1987. "Quantitative characteristics of<br /> tax systems of developing coutries," in The theory of<br /> canh ma hieu qua d i u tU cua k h u viic nha<br /> taxation for developing countries. David Newbery and<br /> nUdc (bao gdm ca cac doanh nghiep nha Nicholas Stem (eds). Oxford. Oxford University Press,<br /> nUdc) cdn kem hieu qua (Ngan hang The pp. 205-41.<br /> gidi, 2006) thi cai thign hieu qua chi tieu 12. Tanzi Vito vi L. Schknecht. 1997. "Refomiing<br /> government: An overview of recent experience."<br /> edng cd vai trd r a t quan trpng. Viet Nam European Journal of political economy, vol. 13, pp.<br /> Cling c i n xem x6t lai md hinh t a n g trUdng 395-417.<br /> diia tren md rpng d I u tU cdng hien nay. Ve 13. Tanzi Vito vi Zee HoweU H. 2000. "Tax Pohcy<br /> dki han, Chinh phii c i n duy tri quy mo thu for Emerging Markets: Developing Countries."<br /> National-Tax-Journal, vol. 53(2), pp. 299-322.<br /> chi ngan sach hdp ly va cd giai phap de tim 14. Teera Joweria M. vi Hudson John. 2004. "Tax<br /> kiem ngudn t h u n g a n sach dn dinh, h a n performance: a comparative study." Journal of<br /> che Sli phu thupc qua ldn cua t h u ngan International Development, vol. 16(6), pp. 785-802.<br /> saeh nha nUde vao k h a i thac tai nguyen va 15. Torgler B. 2003. "Tax morale in transition<br /> countries." Post-Communism Economies, vol. 15 (3),<br /> hoat dpng x u i t k h i u . Hdn nQa, khi Viet pp. 357-81.<br /> Nam chua t h a n h cdng trong cai each h a n h 16. Vu Sy Cuong .2008. Fiscal policy and<br /> chinh n h i m n a n g cao n a n g liic quan tri development in transition: the case of Vietnam- Thfese<br /> Doctoral - Universite de Paris 1- Pantheon-Sorborme.<br /> cua Chinh phu, thi c i n xem xet lai viec<br /> 17. Zee Howell. 1996. "Empirics of crosscountry tax<br /> h e n tuc gia t a n g quy md ngan sach nhU revenue comparisons." World development, vol.24,<br /> hien nay./. No.lO, pp. 1659-71.<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> Nghiin ciiu Kinh tg s6375- Thing 8/2009 17<br />