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The Rediscovering Vietnam's real estate potential

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The Rediscovering Vietnam's real estate potential

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Factors driving demand: Strong economic growth, FDI growth, WTO access, new multi-national companies, expansion of existing multi-national companies, Vietnam companies upgrading, safety & quality Issues

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Nội dung Text: The Rediscovering Vietnam's real estate potential

  1. REDISCOVERING VIETNAM’S REAL ESTATE POTENTIAL Presented by: Marc Townsend – Managing Director 1st March, 2007 Renaissance Hotel, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
  2. WHAT HAS BEEN DRIVING THE PROPERTY MARKET SINCE 2003? •Limited capital markets •An emerging condo market in Hanoi and HCMC • Conspicuous consumption • Ability to borrow from local banks at 10-11% per annum • Consistently rising GDP and FDI • China + 1, APRC, the Stock Market and entry to WTO has put Vietnam on the radar screen, coupled with the ML report in Feb and the Euro Money Conference in Mar 2006 • Saturation in other South East Asian markets Client Logo Goes Here CB Richard Ellis | Page 2
  3. MAP OF VIETNAM Client Logo Goes Here CB Richard Ellis | Page 3
  4. HO CHI MINH CITY Client Logo Goes Here CB Richard Ellis | Page 4
  5. VIETNAM TODAY • No Starbucks and No MacDonalds • World leaders in pepper, coffee, cashew, shoes, fish/prawns, oil & gas exports • No shortage of land, just good sites • “If you build it, they will come” still exists but may not last much longer • Many similarities to China in the early 90s in terms of work ethic, chaos on the streets, migration of work force and market driven decisions • Traffic, complete absence of infrastructure, MRT/MTR, bridges and tunnels Client Logo Goes Here CB Richard Ellis | Page 5
  6. HCMC OFFICE MARKET HCMC Prime Office Stock End of Q1.2007 sqm 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 04 04 04 04 05 05 05 05 06 06 06 06 07 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 1/ Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Office Stock at the beginning of the quarter New supply during the quarter Client Logo Goes Here CB Richard Ellis | Page 6
  7. HCMC OFFICE MARKET Prime Office Rental Index 160 140 120 US-VN Bilateral Index (Q1 1998 = 100) Trade Agreement 100 80 60 40 And the upward trend will continue due to: 20 • Growing demand • Delays in new supply 0 Q1 98 Q2 98 Q3 98 Q4 98 Q1 99 Q2 99 Q3 99 Q4 99 Q1 00 Q2 00 Q3 00 Q4 00 Q1 01 Q2 01 Q3 01 Q4 01 Q1 02 Q2 02 Q3 02 Q4 02 Q1 03 Q2 03 Q3 03 Q4 03 Q1 04 Q2 04 Q3 04 Q4 04 Q1 05 Q2 05 Q3 05 Q4 05 Q1 06 Q2 06 Q3 06 Q4 06 Q1.07 Client Logo Goes Here CB Richard Ellis | Page 7
  8. Vimedimex Golden Tower Major Buildings Sacombank Existing - Future 9 DTH PetroVietnam Saigon Trade Center EVN Centec Saigon Tower Gemadept Pacific Place Asiana Plaza Sailing Tower Diamond Plaza Metropolitan Bao Viet Vietcombank Me Linh Point Saigon Center Times Square Sun Wah Financial Tower Client Logo Goes Here CB Richard Ellis | Page 8 VPBank M&C Tower
  9. HCMC OFFICE MARKET SOME OF THE NEW OFFICE BUILDINGS COMPLETED IN Q1. 2007 Opera View, Dist. 1 Lancaster, Dist. 1 Rosaco, Dist. 1 Estimated Total Supply in Q1. 2007: 47,843 sqm Petro Vietnam, Dist. 1 E – Town 2, Tan Binh District Client Logo Goes Here CB Richard Ellis | Page 9
  10. HCMC OFFICE MARKET Take up and vacancy rate of s qm % HCMC office buildings 18,000 8.0% 16,000 7.0% 14,000 6.0% 12,000 5.0% 10,000 4.0% 8,000 3.0% 6,000 4,000 2.0% 2,000 1.0% - 0.0% Q1.04 Q2.04 Q3.04 Q4.04 Q1.05 Q2.05 Q3.05 Q4.05 Q1.06 Q2.06 Q3.06 Q4.06 Take-up (Sqm) Vacancy Rate (%) Client Logo Goes Here CB Richard Ellis | Page 10
  11. HCMC OFFICE MARKET – Rental Rates Rental growth of Grade A 2006 - 2007 Q1 - 2006 $23.00 growth rate 28% 29.5 Q1 - 2007 $29.50 unit: US$ 23 Increase of 28% Occupancy 100% Q1/2006 Q1/2007 *Note: Rents excluding S. C and VAT Client Logo Goes Here CB Richard Ellis | Page 11
  12. HCMC OFFICE MARKET – Rental Rates Rental Growth of Grade B 2006 - 2007 Q1 - 2006 $21.00 unit:US$ growth rate 26% Q1 - 2007 $26.50 26.5 21 Increase of 26% Occupancy 99% Q1/2006 Q1/2007 * Note: rents excluding S.C and VAT Client Logo Goes Here CB Richard Ellis | Page 12
  13. HCMC OFFICE MARKET – Rental Rates Rental Growth of Grade C 2006 - 2007 Q1 - 2006 $17.50 growth rate 17% Q1 - 2007 $20.50 unit: US$ 20.5 17.5 Increase of 17% Occupancy 95% Q1/2006 Q1/2007 * Note: rents excluding S.C and VAT Client Logo Goes Here CB Richard Ellis | Page 13
  14. HCMC OFFICE MARKET Market Outlook in 2007: 9 Limited grade A office space still Supply of remains. Expected new grade Expected 9 Some new supply of Grade B office year of A, B & C supply space expected to come on line during completion buildings (sqm) 2007. 9Factors driving demand: Strong 2007 27 158,798 economic growth, FDI growth, WTO access, new multi-national companies, expansion of existing multi-national 2008 18 180,657 companies, Vietnam companies upgrading, safety & quality Issues 2009 15 187,824 9 Grade A office rental rates reflects upward momentum and growing demand 2010 12 273,146 vis-à-vis tight supply 9 Vacancy rate remains low, grade A (0%) TOTAL 72 800,425 and B (
  15. HCMC OFFICE MARKET HCMC MAJOR UNDER CONSTRUCTION OFFICE DEVELOPMENTS IN Q1&Q2/07 Manulife - Dist. 7 6,000 Cetpa - Tan Binh 11,945 Q 2 .2 0 0 7 N'Orch - Dist. 1 6,000 ITAXA, Dist. 3 7,600 E-Star, Dist. 3 3,960 Vimedimex - Dist. 1 10,780 Petro VN, Dist. 1 10,143 Lancaster 1,600 Q 1 .2 0 0 7 E-Town 2 - Tan Binh 27,000 Rosaco Tower - Dist. 1 8,000 sqm Opera View - Dist. 1 3,100 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 (Source: CBRE) Client Logo Goes Here CB Richard Ellis | Page 15
  16. HCMC OFFICE MARKET EX PECTED FUTUR E SUPPLY O FFI CE SPACE (2 0 0 7 - 2 0 1 0 ) (u n it s q m ) 273,146 180,657 187,824 158,798 Exp ect ed co mp l et i o n i n Exp ect ed co mp l et i o n i n Exp ect ed co mp l et i o n i n Exp ect ed co mp l et i o n i n 2007 2008 2009 2010 2007 2008 2009 2010 Rosaco Tower Petro VN VP Bank Tower Sacom Bank Centec Asiana Financial Tower Vietcombank Plaza Tower Client Logo Goes Here CB Richard Ellis | Page 16
  17. THE MARKET’S TIMING – LARGER BUILDINGS 2008 2009 2010 Bao Viet Centec Vietcombank 20,000 sqm 25,000 sqm 77,000 sqm (owner occupied) VPBank Asiana Plaza 20,000 sqm 32,000 sqm M&C Tower (12,000 sqm 35,000 sqm for lease) HCMC Power Head Office 20,000 sqm A&B Financial Tower (10,000 sqm 25,000 sqm 100,000 sqm for lease) 2010 2011 Gemadept Times Square 16,500 sqm 31,000 sqm (10,000 sqm for lease) 2010 76,500 sqm 113,000 sqm 212,000 sqm Client Logo (32,000 sqm Goes Here for lease) CB Richard Ellis | Page 17
  18. RESIDENTIAL CONDO HCMC Number of Condos and Projects launched year-by-year 12,000 50 40 9,000 30 P ro j ects Condos 6,000 20 3,000 10 0 0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Uni ts 648 0 0 0 150 0 0 124 1,234 3,418 7,644 10,37 11,47 7,270 P r oj e ct s 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 3 16 27 42 33 9 Client Logo Goes Here CB Richard Ellis | Page 18
  19. MAP OF CONDO PROJECTS IN HCMC Client Logo Goes Here CB Richard Ellis | Page 19
  20. RESIDENTIAL CONDO HCMC Completed Condominium Units year-by-year 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1999 2003 2004 2005 2006 Q1/07 Over U S$2, 000 141 252 U S$1, 501 - U S$2, 000 526 U S$1, 001 - U S$1, 500 97 66 270 405 U S$600 - U S$1, 000 798 124 1, 110 1, 965 1, 330 Less U S$600 552 1, 594 881 Client Logo Goes Here CB Richard Ellis | Page 20

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