Exchange rate forecasting

The research subject is the process of economic and mathematical modelling of time series characterizing the bitcoin exchange rate volatility, based on the use of artificial neural networks. The purpose of the work is to search and scientifically substantiate the tools and mechanisms for developing prognostic estimates of the crypto currency market development. The paper considers the task of financial time series trend forecasting using the LSTM neural network for supply chain strategies.

5p longtimenosee09 08-04-2024 6 1   Download

Part 1 of ebook "Multinational financial management" provides readers with contents including: environment of international financial management; the determination of exchange rates; the international monetary system; foreign exchange and derivatives markets; parity conditions in international finance and currency forecasting; the balance of payments and international economic linkages; the foreign exchange market; currency futures and options markets;...

356p dangsovu 20-10-2023 10 5   Download

Continued part 1, part 2 of ebook "Economics for investment decision makers: Micro, macro, and international economics" provides readers with contents including: Chapter 8 - International trade and capital flows; Chapter 9 - Currency exchange rates; Chapter 10 - Currency exchange rates, determination and forecasting; Chapter 11 - Economic growth and the investment decision; Chapter 12 - Economics of regulation;...

374p lytamnguyet 04-08-2023 13 5   Download

Continued part 1, part 2 of ebook "International financial management (Abridged 10th edition)" provides readers with content including: exchange rate risk management; forecasting exchange rates; measuring exposure to exchange rate fluctuations; managing transaction exposure; managing economic exposure and translation exposure; long-term asset and liability management; direct foreign investment; multinational capital budgeting; international corporate governance and control; country risk analysis;...

296p dieptieuung 19-07-2023 9 4   Download

The portfolio-balance approach to exchange rate determination is part of the Asset Market Models and is largely attributed to economists after 1973 when the exchange rate became flexible (market determined). This article first introduces the setting of the model embedded in the portfolio balance approach that encompasses two assets (money and bonds), which deviates a little from the models and approaches used for the monetary approach to the balance of payment, the overshooting model, and from the associated market equilibria.

22p nguyentanloc09 17-10-2020 33 0   Download

Lecture 9 - Forecasting exchange rates. After completing this chapter, students will be able to: To explain how firms can benefit from forecasting exchange rates; to describe the common techniques used for forecasting; and to explain how forecasting performance can be evaluated.

21p koxih_kothogmih2 20-08-2020 14 1   Download

The aim of the study is to find the empirical analyses of the impact of oil price fluctuation on the monetary instrument in Nigeria, by looking at their relationships. Specifically, we analyzed the role of Exchange rate, Inflation, Interest rate and how they respond to shocks in oil price. We explored the frequently used Toda–Yamamoto model (TY), by adopting the TY modified Wald (MWALD) test approach to causality, forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD) and impulse response functions (IRFs).

8p kethamoi7 15-08-2020 28 2   Download

Chapter 8 - Exchange rate forecasting, technical analysis and trading rules. The objectives of this chapter are: To explain why exchange rate forecasting is needed, to illustrate forecasting techniques, to explain how to evaluate the performance of forecasters,...

48p nanhankhuoctai1 29-05-2020 6 0   Download

In this chapter, students will be able to understand: Evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of alternative systems (free floating, fixed, managed float) for the determination of exchange rates; understand the determinants of exchange rates (qualitative); how to forecast (quantitative) exchange rates using models: purchasing power parity, relative purchasing power parity, interest rate parity, an unbiased forward rate.

6p nanhankhuoctai1 29-05-2020 20 1   Download

In this chapter, students can obtain and interpret exchange rates, students can convert currencies using direct and indirect quotes and cross rates, students can compute and interpret currency appreciations and depreciations, students can forecast appreciations using PPP and IRP.

32p nanhankhuoctai1 29-05-2020 20 1   Download

In this chapter, students can obtain and interpret exchange rates, students can convert currencies using direct and indirect quotes and cross rates, students can compute and interpret currency appreciations and depreciations, students can forecast appreciations using PPP and IRP.

30p nanhankhuoctai1 29-05-2020 17 1   Download

The objective of this paper is to determine the basic features of the use of mathematical modeling of the system to forecast cryptocurrency exchange rate. The study determines that cryptocurrency is the simplest investment asset being and, at the same time, the riskiest one.

8p kelseynguyen 26-05-2020 12 0   Download

Pundits in the international finance have long puzzled over the lack of an empirical relationship between exchange rates and fundamentals and theoretical exchange rate models are difficult to verify using actual data related to fundamentals. This may be related to the length of the sample period or the choice of bilateral/multilateral exchange rates. This study utilized monthly data to increase the number of samples and construct the multilateral exchange rate models.

11p 035522894 13-04-2020 43 1   Download

This paper investigates the optimal exchange rate regime in a group of ASEAN countries, which minimises the adverse effects of foreign demand shocks on real output, the real exchange rate, price level and between-country income gap. Using a panel structural vector autoregressive model for small open economies, we show that the extent by which foreign demand shocks influence the between-country income gap depends on the exchange rate regime and the transmission channels through output, the price level and the real exchange rate.

37p caygaocaolon4 04-04-2020 22 2   Download

The objective of this work is to identify and examine the risk premium of the exchange rate; then, to determine the factors that cause it, and to measure its variance by using a GARCH-M model. Some theoretical models are developed by taking the exchange rate risk premium as dependent variable and other macrovariables, political events, and market conditions as independent ones. There are three different exchange rates ($/€, $/£, and ¥/$) used, here, for the measurement of the risk premium and the empirical test of the model.

23p trinhthamhodang2 21-01-2020 59 2   Download

The exchange rate expectations, which are broad models of exchange rate forecasting and efficiency, by looking at approaches, such as the static expectations, the extrapolative, the adaptive, the rational, the regressive, and some general specifications of the above expectations. At the end, orthogonality tests suggest that rejection of the unbiased forward rate hypothesis is caused by different variables (like “news”, unexpected shocks, latent variables, forecast errors in money supplies, interest rate differentials, stock market risk premia, and various forms of conditional variance).

34p trinhthamhodang2 19-01-2020 24 1   Download

Topic 6 - Currency forwards, futures, and options. In this chapter students understand and can recall: Payoffs and profits of currency forwards, futures, and options; forecasting spot and forward exchange rates with PPP, IRP, and UFR; how financial managers use forwards, futures, and options to hedge fx risk.

35p shiwo_ding8 25-06-2019 26 2   Download

Topic 8 - Multinat corp monte carlo simulations using excel and @risk. In this chapter, students will be able to understand: Apply Interest Rate Parity (IRP) and Unbiased Forward Rate (UFR) to forecast exchange rates; use Bloomberg forex quotes, forwards, volatilities and interest rates;...

21p shiwo_ding8 25-06-2019 29 3   Download

In this chapter you will learn: Background on foreign exchange markets, factors affecting exchange rates, movements in exchange rates, forecasting exchange rates, forecasting exchange rate volatility, speculation in foreign exchange markets, foreign exchange derivatives, international arbitrage, explaining price movements of foreign exchange derivatives.

38p shiwo_ding6 30-05-2019 14 1   Download

The paper aims to analyse and forecast the Euro Hungarian Forint exchange rate volatility with the use of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity GARCH- type models over the time period from September 30, 2010 to January 02, 2017.

11p danhnguyentuongvi 17-12-2018 22 2   Download