Bài giảng Ước lượng dự án Estimate [mới nhất]

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f, NEO I ;;;"; I

TAr UEUKHoADAo rAo QUAN rRI DUAN THEo CU..,--AN CMMI LEVEL 3

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MON 1 rloc LUqNG DU Ax (ESTIMATE)

HA Noi, t2l20ll

12t2t2011

SorrwRne Esrrunrtoru

o Estimate ld u0c luqng c6c tham s6 cho viec lip k6

hoach du 5n, bao g6m: . Ktr6i tugng (Size - gan voi san phAm) . Nh6n c6ng (Efiort - gen voi neng suSt) . ThDi gian (Schedule - g6n vd{ quy trinh) . Chl phl (Cost - g6n vdi dL7 6n & ch6 60 c6ng ty)

o CAn phAn bigt 16 Estimate/Targeucommitment

o Khdch hing thudng y6u cau k6 hoach cho muc tiCu

thay vi udc tlnh khach quan

ESIMATIoN & CMMI

usiras.

Estlrnate6 oi prdect plenning poTilnQtcrF ore establichBd and maintained.

Aprol€ct dan is €Etablishcd and meinlsnsd a8 ih€ besis lor manaqino {re

the project phn 5ra es|dui$hed

Commitm€nts'6 and meintained.

5 @ m m

THE NAo l.A MoT "Eslrunre" 16r?

TjCu chi cho mot udc tlnh tot khong phai la kha nang ph5n doSn ma la kha ning h6 trq du 6n thanh c6ng

12t2t2011

TUE ueo lj MOT..ESTIMATE,' TOT?

o Mqcti€u

thpc su cia viec udc tlnh chinh la x6c dlnh

tinh kha thi.

o Udilinh kh6ng cAn hoAn hio md cAn HUU DUNG o Chinh xac thCm 5% khOng c6 y nghia neu dA bai de

thay d6i 1oo%

Lgl icH cUA ESTlMATloN cHtNH xAc

o Oim bio thdnh c6ng & lqi nhuan mong dqi o Nang cao khi ning ki6m so5t du 5n

. So s6nh thLrc tA vdi uoc lugng

o Cai tien ch5t lugng

. 40% l6i B do phei ldm gAp quri

o Ting khi n6ng ph6i hqp cac b0 phan o QuAn lf chi phi t6t hon

. Du b6o chi phi dua tren con s6 lu6n chinh xac hon

o Nang cao uy tin ttOi sAn xuSt

. Tftinh bi Enh dao va kinh doanh phe binh

o C6 th6ng tin s6m vA nli ro

12t2t2011

Quv rniuu EsruRloru

Schedule

Project Lifecycle *$ss

CAc Yeu rO cu pnor EsrtunroN

o C5c y6u t6 chi ph6i utrc tinh kh6i luqng o Cdc y6u tO chi ph6i uoc tinh nh6n c6ng o Cdcy6u t6 chi ph6i uoc tinh llch trinh o C6c y6u t6 chi phSi uoc tinh chi phi

CAC YEU TO CHI PHOI KHOI LLTqNG

o Cec hang mqc c6ngvi0c cAn Em (WBS) o HQ th6ng c6c tinh nSng cAn x3y dung o Muc d0 phuc tap nghiQp q o M6 hinh sin phAm (phan t5n/tap trung...) o COng nghe s0 dung o MOc dO t6i sr) dgng tir c5c sin phAm c0 o C5c y6u cAu chAt luqng

. T6ctt9 . Khi ning x) V dO lieu . D0 6n dinh . Tinh tien dung . Bao m{t & ph3n quyAn

12t2t2011

CAc vEu 16 cn| pHOI NHAN CONG

ldm viQc

o Thdi gian hieu dung o Ning suAt o Kinh nghiCm ky thuat o Kinh nghiQm nghiep vU o MOitrudng va phuong ti€n

CAc YEU TO cHI PHOITHdI GIAN

o Cac hoat dong cong ty o Lich nghl (LE, Tet, nghi mdt...) o Thdigian b6 s6t

. Chuydn d6i do lieu, Em cong cu chuyAn do fieu . Oao tao thanh vi6n mdi . HqP hanh . Chudn bi dO lieu test . Nghicn cfu ky thu€t mdi . Denh gie chet luqng noi b0 . Review cac tai feu yeu ceu, thi6t k6, k6 ho?ch....

KnA uAr.rc uoc riruH cUn eeNr??

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1212t2011

12t2t2011

CAc rxAcn rn0c rnonc udc riNH

o Y6u cAu thay d6i vA thi6u 16 rdng

o Cec tro ngai vA t

o Bi6n dQng nhdn srJ

o C5ch ldm & quy trinh thay d6i

MOT sO QUY LUAT TRONG ESNMATION

o D6m, tinh & doSn o H$i ch0ng'sinh vi6n' o Quy luat's6 l6n' o Thdi gian hiQu dung thuc t6 o Su tich lity sai s6

TRO cHoI VE LUAT SO LON

12t2t2011

TRO cHor vE LUAr s0 LON

NnUruo sRr LAnr co BAN TRoNG udc riun

o Thi€u co sd tto d6m o Kh6ng xem x6t inh hudng crla quy trinh ldm dU 6n o Lroc t{nh theo kha neng thr}r hi€n c6ng viec cia

nguli ldm udc tinh

o U

12t2t2011

CAc KY THUAT GAM sAI 56T

igKsP.

CAc KV THUAT GAM SA sOT

o Dem, tinh va do6n

o Lam 16 y6u cAu bdng PROTOTYPE

o Ph6n € c5c bufc thuc hi€n beng WBS

o udc tinh tirng chi tiet

o Xem x6t c6c kha nang BesvMosuworst vdi t 6i

tuqng thuc hiCn

12t2t2011

TnOuc rr.r OAu vAo vA DAU nn

DrEu rcEru sE eAr oAu EsrMArE

o Danh sech c6c y6u ciu tlnh neng san phAm tt6

dugc lAm 16

o Ph6c thao ki6n tr0c vA lua chon c6ng nghQ t6ng th6

d5 duqc lim 16

o Quy trinh phSt tri6n sdn phAm d6 duqc lpa chen' o Prototype de dugc xay dLrng * o DO ligu nang suat da duqc thu thap/th& nghiem

CAc pnuoruc PHAP ESTIMATIoN

o Work Break-down Structure (WBS) o Funct on Point o Use-case Point o Story Point o Tu dinh nghia

PHAN TicH cAc pnuoruo pHAp ESTTMATToN

PHLToNG pHAp sAun GA WBS r. Xly dr7ng prototvpe lam 16 y€u cAu 2. xay dung $trplg hoic sr) dung ki6n tr0c di c6

d6 . Lim 16 ciic lhirnh phAn sin phAm . X6c dinh d0 phrlc tap cong nghC . Xec dinh doi ngii va khe neng thuc hien

12t212011

vi€c

o. T6ng hqp tinh lich trinh vi chl phi du an

PHuouc PHAP DANH GA WBS

a L?p bdng d6m d6nh gia kh5i lugng c6ng viQc 1 XAc dinh quy trinh & wBS phn hqp vdi du 5n s. Tinh toen ngutin lgc tr6n ti?ng hang muc c6ng

12t2t2011

Ver rno & Y HeHIn CONG rAc oAttx ctA

o GiAm r0i ro o TSng khd ndng ki6m so6t du 5n

vi9c

o C6ng cr,r h6 hq diAu chinh du an o COng cu danh gi6 & quin y cec thay d6i o Tao co sA dO lieu cho c6c danh gi6 tuong lai o Xay dung c6c ti€u chuAn ning suAt

KET LUAN

o G6 uoc tinh thi hon KHoNG o Mgc uoc tinh quan trgng hon phtrong ph5p urdc

tinh va c6ng cu

o Mu6n udc tinh It sai, do d6m tAt ci nhong gi c6 th8

vd cu th6

o Ldm c5i gi? Ldm nhu th+l nao? Ai lam? Ld nh0ng cAu h6i can trA ldi 16 rang trudc khi dua ra UOc tlnh

o Quy trinh uoc tinh

. Size => Efiort => Schadule => Cost

. Beng dinh lrrqng . Su6t qu6 rinh thLrc hion du 6n . B6c tich drrgc sai Ech ntrng su{t va kh6i lu.mg cong

CONC TY CO PHAN oAu TUpUAT TRIEN CONG NGHE vA rnuynN THONG.NEo

NEO

Be urlth yoo dlwaF

QUY rniNn uOC Lugr{c CAc THAM 56 DUAN

MdhiQutai liQu Phi6n ban: Ngdy hiQu lsc:

Ngudti xem x6t H9 vd TOn Chtc danh Kf: Ngdv:

Nguai phG duyQt Hq vd TOn Chfc danh Ky: Ngiv:

Hi NQi, ngiy

Ngudri tfp H9 vd TCn Chtc danh Ky: Ngiv:

rixn rRANG BAN HANIr/stIa. Dor rAr LIEU

Mgc sfra tl6i

Trang

NQi dung ban hirnh/sfra tl6i

Ngiy ban hirnh/sfra tl6i

Lin ban hirnh/sira tl6i

Iodn tai li6u

Ban hanh moi

THONG TrN ToNG euAr

MUC oicn

PHAM vr Ap DUI{c

Ap dung cho du 6n phdn mAm

T NGUVA DII\H NG

III.

xctl vA DII\H xcni.t

Dinh nehia/Di6n gifri

Ouantri duan

OTDA ry.

TAI LIE,U LITN QUAN

Quy tlinh c6c budc phii thgc hiQn cta qu6 trinh udc luqng c6c tham s6 aU an

MO TA QUY TRINH

I I

2.1

2.3 II 1

1.1

1.2

2.1

DrEU KrDN nAr uAu vA KEr rHUC uidu kiQn rit aiu Thgc hiQn tru6c khi bit diu lflp kti hoach du an Di6u kiQn t<6t tnrric fdt cec5c tham s5 sau dugc u6c lugng: Pham vi dy rin (Scope); fh6i tuqng c6ng vi6c (Size); Lich trinh dU rln (Schedule); Chi phf dU rln (Cost); DOi dU an (Team) WBS so bQ duo. c ttri0t tap Chu trinh dU an duoc lga chgn (Project lifecycle) oAu vAO VA DAU RA Diu vho Hqrp d6ng Danh s6ch c6c y6u cdu ctra kh6ch hang DAu ra Bang U6c lugne du an (PM.....)

v. NQrDUNG 1 Luu tld

t-I6c ltrqrng phqm vi dg 5n bang wBS t6ng tn6 (Scope)

Muc I BiSu m5u Bdng u6c ltrcrng du 6n

L.fdc lLrcrng fn6i tLrqng c6ng vi€c (Size) dY 6n

2.2

Lua chon chu trinh PhAt tri6n dg an (Project lifecycle)

* Muc lll Bi6u m5u Bang uoc luqvng du an * Tai lieu hu6ng d6n sr) drJng cac mo ht'nh ph5t tri6n phAn mAm

Kho d& lieu quy trinh chu5n crla c6ng tY

LrOc luqng ngu6n lr.ec (Effort) cho du 5n

Muc lV Bi6u m5u Bang u6c lLr(rng du 5n

Kho dO liCu quy trinh chudn crla c6ng ty

Htr6ng dFn ucrc lL.PCrng khoi luqng c6ng viec dv 5n (Size)

LIOC ltr(,ng dOi du 6n (Team)

Mvc lV Bi6u m5u Bang udc lLPCvng du 5n

Muc lV Bi6u m5u Bang u6c lLPqng dv 5n * Muc tV Bi6u m5u BAng r.rdc lr.Pqng d\f 6n * Bang dinh mt?c mOt s6 hang mvc chi pha phAn m6m

L/6c lu(,ng lich trinh (Schedule) thl'}c hien dLP 6n

rANc rloc r,Uolrc ntl AN

TGn drp 6n: Nguoi l$p: Ngnv $p:

Udc LrIgf[G PHA.M vr Dr/ AN wBS T6ns th6

K6t quf, tl6u ra

xrEN TRUC sAN pnAM vA c0Nc Ncrrp stloqNc

rr cHU rniNn pnAr rnr0N n[AN (rRoJECT LIFE cycr,E)

(Ghi tAn mO hinh lrya chenvd so dd mO hinh)

u0 niNn DUKTfN Der DTIAN (Vai trd vd sii nsudi)

sANc tloc LTIqNG cAc rnq,M sO nt/ AN

(Phuong phdp udc luqng sd chi phiii Size--> th Size sd adc luqn7 tlaqc cdc tham s6 cdn lqi)

Z l<5tqui u6,c I

Gi6 tri ur6,c lusms

TGn tham s5

STT

Dcrn vi tlo Tiry phuong phdp udc luong--> NAn su &1ng UCP (Tham khdo 3364) ManMonth Tudn or TriQu d6ns

I Kh6i lucms c6ns vi6c du rln (Size) 2 Neu6n luc du 6n Gffort) J Lich trinh du 6n (Schedule) 4 Chi ohi du an (Cost)

1 Phuong phip ufc lugmg

Tni liQu hudng dAn

IIo4t tlQng

STT

K6t qui tIAu ra

QTDA

DAu viro Ngudri thgc

x.}.

Ph6c thf,o m6 hinh t10i dU 6n bdng c6ch tri ldi c6u h6i: DQi dU an gdm bao nhi6u vai trd vd m6i vai tro cdn bao nhiOu ngudi?

- WBS t6ng th6 - Ngu6n lgc du an - Thdi han

DQi dU iin dugc u6c luqng (Muc IV Bi6u m6u Bang u6c luqmg dU 6n)

Lich trinh thyc hiQn dU 6n duoc udc lugng (Muc IV Bi6u m6u Bang u6c luqng dg 6n)

OTDA

Dua vdo Effort ve f lQ hao phi thdi gian quy u6c cta NEO, x6c ilinh s6 ngdy ldm viQc cAn c6 vd khoang th

UIUI tl6c luome lich trinh (Schedule) cho du 6n

UIU Iftc luone ch phi du 6n

QTDA

- WBS t6ng thc - Ngudn lgc dU an -l- Io cnuc ou kiiin dOi du rln

Bang dinh mric m6t s6 hang muc chi phi phdn mem

Chi phi dU 6n dugc u6c luqmg (MUc IV Bi6u mdu Bang u6c lugng dp an)

- Pham vi dg arl - Ngu6n lUc dU an - D6i du 6n

- tl6c luqmg c6c h4ng muc chi phf c6 th6 c6 trong dU rin Vi dq: Hang mgc chi phf g6m: Chi phi lucmg nhdn vi6n, Chi phi phi vdn phdng, Chi phi c6ng tdc phi,..... - Lf6c lugmg chi phi cho timg hang muc - LIOo lugng chi phi cho ci du 6t

Tni [Qu hu6mg din

IIo4t ilQng

STT

Ngudi thgc

K6t quf, tliu ra

QTDA

Tdi liQu hucmg d6n sir dgng cdc m6 hinh ph6t trlen pnan mem

M6 hinh chu trinh ph6t tri6n dU 6n dugc lpa chgn (Muc III Bitiu m6u Bang u6c lugng dg 6n)

DAu viro

- Ph4m vi dg an (Scope of Project) - fh6i luqng c6ng viQc - Danh s6ch x Yeu cau kh6ch hang - KhOi luqng y6u cAu kh6ch nang cung cap

Lya chgn chu trinh ph5t tri6n dp an phu hgp v6i dac thi tung dU rin theo mQt hoflc ktit hgp mQt trong si5 c6c chu trinh sau: '- M6 hinh thSc nu6c (Watterfall Model)): - M6 hinh chfi V (V Model) - MO hinh ctr6 ttni (Prototyping Model) - MO hinh ph6t triiSn rrng dung nhanh (Rapid Application Development Model) - M6 hinh hinh gia tdng (The Incremental Model) - M6 hinh hucmg thenh phan (Component base Model) --> Xem th6m Tdi liQu hucrng d6n sri firng C6c m6 hinh ph6t . .a , >, rlen pnan mem

ET0,

IJ6,c luone nsudn lu- c (Effort) cho drl r{n

Ngu6n lUc dU 6n duoc u6c luq,ng (Mgc IV Bi6u mdu Bang u6c lugng d1r 6n)

QTDA

ulu: I-lOc luone tl6i du 6n (Team)

- DUa vio kho dt liQu quy trinh chuAn ctra C6ng ty titin hnnh u6c lugng ngu6n lpc cho dU rln. Ngu6n lgc cho dU an phii ld nhfrng con s5 dinh luqng bang mQt s6 ttcm vi do nhu: Thang c6ng (Man-Month), Ngdy c6ng (Man-Day), Gid c6ng (Man- Hour) - CAn cri vdo tlQ phfc t4p cira trmg g6i c6ng viQc trong WBS vd ndng su6t chung cira NEO dO u6c lugng rgudn luc tiOu hao cho d1r an Vi du: Ll6c luqng rguin twc dA thlrc hiQn phqm vi dq dn gim 5 Module ddxdc dinh thi fiAu hao n1t: SO nsdy c6ns (MD) - WBS t6ng thc

2 MA tA chi tiiit

Tiri liQu hu6,ng din

IIo4t tlQng

DAu viro

STT

K6t qui ilflu ra

Nguiri thgc L:

DTO [I6,c luonre pham vi du 6n (Scope)

QTDA

U6c tuqng pham vi du an bdng crich m6 tittdt chcric C6ng viQc/Chric ndng ho{c Nh6m C6ng viQcA[h6m chric n6ng md du an c6n thgc hiQn

File Danh s6ch m6 td tdt ca C6ng viQc/Chfc ndng ho[c Nh6m COng viQcAth6m chric ndng d1r an cdn thgc hiQn (Myc I Bi6u mdu Bang u6c lugng dg an)

DTO' IIdc lucrns kh 6i ludne c6ns vi6c (Size) du 6n

QTDA

Tdi ligu Huong d6n u6c luqng Size dp 6n chung ctra C6ng ty

Pham vi dy an (Scope of Project)

Bing u6c luqng Size cho dU rin theo mQt phuong ph6p dd chon (Muc IV Bi6u m6u Bing u6c luqmg dU 6n)

- Hgrp d6ng - SRS t6ng thc - System concept

ETO: Lua chon chu trinh phit tri6n du 6n (Proiect lifecycle)

I-I6c lugng kh6i luqng c6ng viQc dg an mQt c6ch dinh luqmg theo mQt trong sri c6c phucrng ph6p nhu: D6m 56 ddng lQnh (Line of Cost-LOC); Tinh toan s6 chirc ndng (Funtion Point - FP); Tfnh to6n s6 Feature (Feature Point)..." -->Xem th6m Hucmg d6n u6c lugrng khOi luqng c6ng viQc (Size) dU rin chung cira C6ng ty

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