Summary of PHD thesis in economics: Labor structure transfer by industries in Thai Binh at the present

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Thesis objectives: To evaluate the labor structure transfer by industries in Thai Binh and recommend directions and forecast labor structure transfer by industries in Thai Binh by 2020 together with measures to be taken.

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HO CHI MINH NATIONAL ACADEMY OF POLITICS PHI THI HANG LABOR STRUCTURE TRANSFER BY INDUSTRIES IN THAI BINH AT THE PRESENT Major : Development Economics Code: 62 31 05 01 SUMMARY OF PhD THESIS IN ECONOMICS HA NOI - 2014
The thesis was finished at the Ho Chi Minh National Academy of Politics Academic Supervisors: 1. Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nguyen Thi Thom 2. Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nguyen Thi Huong Judge 1: …………………………………. …………………………………. Judge 2: …………………………………. …………………………………. Judge 3: …………………………………. …………………………………. The thesis will be defended in front of a panel of examining judges at the Ho Chi Minh National Academy of Politics At…,…..…., 2014 The thesis can be found for study at the National Library and the Library of Ho Chi Minh National Academy of Politics
1 INTRODUCTION 1. Necessity of the thesis Labor structure transfer plays an important role in economic structure transfer. Labor structure transfer is considered as one of important missions that serves economic transfer. It is the result and the driving force of economic structure transfer, promoting modernization, industrialization and helps balance the supply-demand in the labor market. Labor structure transfer not only abides economic laws but aims to develop sustainably, stabilize society, improve environment and develop people. Thái Bình is a coastal province, along Red river with relatively flat terrain, which favors economic and social development, especially marine economic development. In the past few years, economic structure of Thai Binh has seen positive improvement. In 2001, forestry, agriculture, fishery made up 57,6% GDP, in 2012, the figured reduced to 32,2%; industry and construction contribution to GDP has increased. In 2001, it only counted for 15,2% GDP, in 2012, the statistics was 34,0%; service industry contribution increased from 27,2% in 2001 to 32,0% in 2012 [10, p. 41], [13, p. 44]. Together with the above transfer trend, labor structure in Thai Binh also experienced the decrease in employments in agriculture and increase in employments in industry and service. In 2001 labors in agriculture counted for 75,12% of total labors in Thai Binh, in 2012, the number reduced to 58,3%; labors in Industry and construction increased from 13,0% in 2001to 25% in 2012; labors in service counted for 11,9% in 2001, increased to 16% in 2012 [11, p. 19], [13, p. 29]. The question is that labor structure by industries of Thai Binh is transferring at what speed and is it appropriate with economic structure transfer of the province, does labor structure transfer have good impacts on economic structure transfer in the directions of modernization, industrialization? How to make labor structure transfer by industries match with local economic structure transfer? How should the labor structure transfer be to meet the provincial target of being an industrial province by 2020 with structure of commerce-service, industry-construction, agriculture –forestry- fishery? To promote economic structure transfer in Thai Binh, how should labor structure transfer? In order to answer those questions, there is a need for a theoretical systematic analysis of labor structure transfer by industries in general and at local level in particular. From that, labor structure transfer by industries in Thai Binh will be
2 analyzed and evaluated to find solutions to promote the process. Originated from these above reasons, the doctorate thesis on “Labor structure transfer by industries in Thai Binh at the present” therefore carries theoretical and practical meanings with necessity and importance. 2. Objectives and missions of the thesis 2.1. Thesis objectives To evaluate the labor structure transfer by industries in Thai Binh and recommend directions and forecast labor structure transfer by industries in Thai Binh by 2020 together with measures to be taken. 2.2. Thesis mission - To establish theoretical system on labor structure transfer by industries at provincial level. - To analyze the labor structure transfer by industries in Thai Binh based on established theory. - To clarify achievements, limitations in labor structure transfer by industries in Thai Binh and causes of the limitations. - To recommend directions and solutions to promote appropriate labor structure transfer by industries and reform economic growth model to achieve key objective of the province of being an industrial province by 2020. 3. Research objects and scale of the thesis 3.1. Research objects The thesis studies labor structure transfer by industries and in industry in Thai Binh. 3.2. Research scale -The thesis focuses on labor structure transfer by industries and in industry in Thai Binh since 2001 and orientations up to 2020. The thesis does not study labor structure transfer by economic sectors and regions. - The thesis studies labor structure transfer managed by Thai Binh province, does not study freelancers and seasonal labors in the province. 4. Research methods In order to serve research objectives and to do stated missions of the thesis, following methods will be used: - Marx-Lenin dialectic materialism and historic materialism.
3 - Statistics, secondary data compiling from legal sources used as basis to compare, analyze, synthesize, evaluate labor resources, labor structure transfer by industries. All are used to evaluate and propose solutions to promote labor structure transfer by industries in Thai Binh. 5. New scientific findings of the thesis - To supplement and clarify contents and criteria of labor structure transfer by industries. - To define and clarify factors influencing labor structure transfer by industries in the province. - To evaluate the labor structure transfer by industries in Thai Binh and causes of limitations in labor structure transfer by industries in Thai Binh. - To propose some directions and forecast labor structure transfer by industries in Thai Binh and some feasible specific solutions to do that transfer. 6. Thesis structure A part from introduction, conclusion, appendix, references, the thesis has 4 chapters and 10 sections. BASIC CONTENTS Chapter 1 LITERATURE REVIEW 1.1. NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL RESEARCHES ON THESIS TOPIC The thesis generalizes national and international researches including books, articles, scientific researches which are chronologically listed. To summary, there are three basic directions of study: 1.1.1. Researches on labor structure transfer in general This way, researches mostly focus on labor structure transfer, labor structure transfer in rural areas, in Red River delta and in provinces undergoing modernization and industrialization process. Based on the survey and analysis of labor structure transfer in the locality, the author proposes some solutions to create jobs and to use labor resources appropriately to meet requirements of modernization and industrialization. 1.1.2. Researches on labor structure transfer by industries by countries and territories
4 Researches mainly analyze the state of labor structure transfer by industries in Red river delta or nationwide, projections of the labor that need to move out of agriculture…At the same time, many authors propose solutions to promote labor structure transfer by industries in Vietnam, transferring labors in agriculture to non- agriculture, laborers with low income transferring to industries with higher income… 1.1.3. Researches on labor structure transfer by industries at provincial level Up to now, there are very few consistent and systematic works on national and international scales on labor structure transfer at local level. Some (if any) just mentioned labor structure transfer by industries in terms of scale, but quality. 1.2. FINDINGS RELATED TO THESIS TOPIC, ISSUE AND DIRECTIONS TO STUDY OF THE THESIS 1.2.1. Findings related to thesis topic Firstly, key issues of labor structure transfer by industries such as definitions of labor structure, labor structure transfer, labor structure transfer by industries, criteria and factors affecting labor structure transfer by industries in the directions of modernization and industrialization of agriculture, rural areas, the role of State in labor structure transfer in agriculture and in rural areas …are addressed. Secondly, situations and features of labor structure transfer in rural areas of different countries are generalized. Experience on agricultural labor structure transfer attached to modernization and industrialization, economic structure transfer and possibility to apply science and technology advancement in production and work productivity is forged. Thirdly, labor structure transfer quality in our country based on work productivity and employment elasticity indexes is analyzed. Also, challenges of labor structure transfer and labor structure transfer by industries are addressed. Fourthly, labor structure transfer situations in some provinces in Vietnam such as Bac Ninh, Da Nang, Ninh Binh, Ha Nam, Phu Tho… are analyzed, from that, achievements, limitations and causes of limitations to labor structure transfer by industries in these provinces are stated. Fifthly, some solutions are proposed to push labor structure transfer by industries in some provinces, which are completing policy mechanism related to labor structure transfer, economic structure together with creating jobs to improve people’s income; improving human resources quality, improving industries, professions and technology
5 that use a lot of labor to improve work productivity in rural, promoting labor export, doing good the immigration and population and family planning. 1.2.2. Raised issues need further study - Theoretically: To date, there has no comprehensive study on labor structure transfer by industry and in industry in terms of both scale and quality. There has been no study on criteria evaluating scale and quality of labor structure transfer by industries and in industry. - Practically: It is visible that there has been no study, analysis and evaluation of labor structure transfer by industries and in industry in terms of scale and quality on national, regional or local levels. For Thai Binh province, there has been no study on labor structure transfer by industries and proposals of directions, solutions to do labor structure transfer by industries from 2015 and 2020. That is why the topic was chosen as doctorate thesis by the author. 1.2.3. Approach - Approachably: the thesis studies labor structure transfer in industry in relation to economic structure in Thai Binh from two aspects: (i) labor structure transfer by industries in terms of scale; (ii)labor structure transfer by industries in terms of quality. - Theoretically: The thesis establishes theoretical system on labor structure transfer by industries at provincial level. Specifically, it will clarify: (i) definition of labor structure transfer by industries; (ii) contents of labor structure transfer by industries and evaluation criteria of labor structure transfer by industries; (iii) analysis and clarification of factors affecting labor structure transfer at provincial level. - Practically: (i) The thesis will survey experiences of labor structure transfer of three provinces which have similar backgrounds with Thai Binh, from that, some lessons will be drawn for labor structure transfer by industries in Thai Binh; (ii) The thesis will analyze and evaluate labor structure transfer by industries and in industry in Thai Binh in terms of scale and quality based on established theory in Chapter 2; (iii) The thesis will project labor demand with qualifications, in different economic industries in Thai Binh from now to 2020; (iv) Based on the evaluation the current state and projected labor demand of economic industries in Thai Binh up to 2020, the thesis proposes directions and solutions to promote labor structure transfer by industries in Thai Binh till 2020.
6 Chapter 2 THEORETICAL AND PRACTICAL FOUNDATION ON LABOR STRUCTURE TRANSFER BY INDUSTRIES AT PROVINCIAL LEVEL 2.1. DEFINITION, CONTENTS AND TRENDS OF LABOR STRUCTURE TRANSFER BY INDUSTRIES 2.1.1. Definition and contents of labor structure transfer by industries 2.1.1.1. Definition and contents of labor structure transfer by industries From general definition of labor structure, labor structure transfer, thesis author defines labor structure transfer by industries as follows: labor structure transfer by industries is the process of changes in ratio and quality of labor in different industries in a specific period of time, in a certain environment and of a certain trend. In fact, labor structure transfer is a process in which labor is reallocated in an advanced way to use labor effectively. That process is happening on the scale of the whole economy and in the limit of each groups of industries, within industry. Labor structure by industries change when there is a change in quantity and quality of labor in that certain industry. 2.1.1.2. Contents of labor structure transfer by industries Firstly, labor structure transfer by industries and in industry in terms on scale or ratio in industries. By that, labor structure transfer by industries process is the process in which labor transfers from agriculture, forestry and fishery from industry- construction, commerce-service. Secondly, labor structure transfer by industries and in industry in terms of quality. By that, the process requires considerations from many aspects: (i)does labor structure transfer by industries improve laborers’ professional skills?; (2) does labor structure transfer by industries bring labor structure by industries more appropriate with economic structure?; (iii) does labor structure transfer by industries improve work productivity; (iv) does labor structure transfer by industries improve laborers’ income? 2.1.2. Trend of labor structure transfer by industries Firstly, the trend of labor structure transfer by industries is attached to the trend of economic structure transfer by industries. This is the most important trend of labor structure transfer, is evident and objective to all countries undergoing the modernization and industrialization, which is divided into periods: (i) beginning
7 period, labor in agriculture, originally just growing rice, now start growing other crops; (ii) next period, when there is abundance in labor in agriculture, other non agriculture production industries such as industry, craft industry and service will be invested to attract labor in agriculture, creating the transfer from purely agriculture to labor structure of agriculture, industry and service. Secondly, the trend of labor structure transfer by industries attached to the changes of economic structure. The trend reflects the change of quality of labor resources. Based on the skills of laborers, the trend of labor structure transfer is divided into two periods of time: (i) low period, the transfer is expressed in the increase in labor with low-level skills and the decrease in labor with no training and education; (ii) high period, it is the increase in labor with technical skills, artisans, labors at tertiary education level and the decrease in labors with skills and qualifications of low level. Thirdly, the trend of labor structure transfer in industry from sections with low income to sections with high income. Specifically: (i) In industry: from traditional, processing sections to high tech sections; labor structure changes in the direction from producing products using a lot of labor to products contained greater capital and science-technology. (ii) In agriculture, labor in growing crops reduces while labor in raising animals or providing agricultural services increases; labor in agriculture transfers to fishery … (iii) In service, labor in simple service sections with low added value transfer to sections requiring intellect, technology and of high quality, increasing laborers in these industries… 2.2. EVALUATION CRITERIA AND FACTORS AFFECTING LABOR STRUCTURE TRANSFER BY INDUSTRIES 2.2.1. Evaluation criteria of labor structure transfer by industries Based on analysis of contents and trends of labor structure transfer by industries as above, the thesis author proposes two groups of criteria evaluating labor structure transfer by industries as follows: Firstly, first group evaluating labor structure transfer by industries in terms of scale contains two criteria: (1) speed of labor structure transfer by industries; and (2) ratio of labor structure transfer by industries. Secondly, second group evaluating labor structure transfer by industries and in industry in terms of quality has 5 criteria: (1) labor structure transfer by industries and in industry in terms of education (qualification and professional skills); (2) relation of labor
8 structure transfer by industries and economic structure transfer by industries; (3) elasticity index of labor curve or differences in income among industries and sections; (4) relation of average GDP/head and labor structure transfer by industries; and (5) labor movement in industries attached to changes in industrial work productivity. 2.2.2. Factors affecting labor structure transfer by industries at provincial level Labor structure transfer by industry at provincial level is affected by four key factors: Firstly, State’s policies on labor structure transfer by industries, including strategies and plans on labor structure transfer by industries, including, strategies, plans on labor structure transfer in general, labor structure transfer by industries in particular and policies on pushing labor structure transfer by industries. Secondly, speed of modernization and industrialization, urbanization of the locality. Thirdly, input resources such as science-technology, capital investment, labor and natural resources. Fourthly, other factors such as national and international labor movement; economic growth, international economic integration; development level of output products and services market … 2.3. EXPERIENCE OF LABOR STRUCTURE TRANSFER IN SOME PROVINCES AND LESSONS DRAWN FOR THAI BINH The thesis studies experience in labor structure transfer by industries in some provinces which share similar settings and backgrounds with Thai Binh: 2.3.1. Experience of labor structure transfer by industries of Ha Nam The thesis indicates achievements in labor structure transfer in Hanoi, which are results of combination between solutions groups and labor structure transfer views. Specifically: (1) Group of solutions improving labor supply, by means of establishing, implementing family planning program, issuing policies on labor movement to allocate labor appropriately and effectively with a focus on human resources training. … (2) Groups of solutions improving labor demand, by means of attracting investment in economy and society, creating stable jobs for laborers, completing and improving labor market, developing science-technology and other sectors… 2.3.2. Experience of labor structure transfer by industries of Vinh Phuc
9 The thesis analyzes achievements of Vinh Phuc Province in labor structure transfer by industries in the period of 2000 - 2010, which were resulted from many solutions conducted such as promoting labor structure transfer by industries attached to economic structure transfer in the direction of modernization and industrialization, developing vocational training model attached to job placement for laborers especially those from areas with farming land converted for other purposes; issuing, implementing policies on job creation and placement, development planning of industries together with creating jobs and labor structure transfer by industries. 2.3.3. Experience of labor structure transfer by industries of Ninh Binh The province made a lot of efforts to promote labor structure transfer appropriately with economic structure transfer and achieved certain achievements. The province implemented solutions to push up labor structure transfer such as solutions groups reducing natural birthrate; solutions group promoting economic structure transfer, favoring the labor structure transfer and solutions group improving quality of human resources with an emphasis on training state provincial managers, corporate managers; training technical staff and workers, service staff; expanding the system and types of vocational training, reforming vocational work activities and training … 2.3.4. Some lessons on labor structure transfer drawn for Thai Binh Based on analysis of experiences of some provinces which have similar backgrounds with Thai Binh, the thesis has drawn some lessons on labor structure transfer for Thai Binh as follows: Firstly, there should be consistent solutions to promote economic structure transfer attached to job creation and placement to create the demand for labor structure transfer by industries in the Province. Secondly, education and training system (including vocational training) should be coherent with development planning of industries in the modernization and industrialization. Thirdly, national and international associations and investment in agriculture, rural areas and industrial parks should be expanded. Fourthly, policies related to labor and labor structure transfer by industries should be implemented suitably with local natural, social and economic features. Fifthly, principles in labor structure transfer by industries should be ensured.
10 Chapter 3 SITUATION OF LABOR STRUCTURE TRANSFER IN THAI BINH 3.1. NATURAL AND SOCIO FAVORABLE AND NOT FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR LABOR STRUCTURE TRANSFER BY INSDUSTRIES IN THAI BINH 3.1.1. Favorable conditions for labor structure transfer by industries in Thai Binh The thesis chose to analyze natural, socio conditions which have much influence on labor structure transfer by industries in Thai Binh. Specifically,: - Natural favorable conditions With a convenient location, at the development triangle Hà Nội - Hải Phòng - Quảng Ninh, Thái Bình enjoys many good conditions for growth with close economic contact with surrounding provinces and Hanoi. The Province has strengths in fishery with three sections of fresh water, pliohaline water, and sea water, which is great for marine exploitation, Tien Hai gas mine with capacity of million tons of m3 gas serving the production of pottery, glass, paving brick, white cement….Thai Binh also has brown coal, the shared resource of Red River Delta of big volume (about more than 30 tons). - Socio and cultural favorable conditions Recently, Thai Binh has seen good economic growth and economic structure transfer. Some industries and traditional craft villages have been for hundred years. Thai Binh’s good infrastructure and abundant labor resource has contributed greatly to the socio development of the province. 3.1.2. Difficuties faced by labor structure transfer by industries in Thai Binh Firstly, Thai Binh has a low economic start line with unstable economic growth, low efficiency, quality and competiveness and it is still in the list of poor countries in Vietnam. Secondly, the orientation of economic development and economic structure transfer has not been done effectively at slow speed, having not met the target set by Provincial Party’s 18th Congress. Thirdly, human resources is of low quality and unemployment rate is still high. This is one of difficulties barring labor structure transfer by industries in Thai Binh both in terms of speed and quality, hindering the economic development of Thai Binh.
11 3.2. SITUATION OF LABOR STRUCTURE TRANSFER BY INDUSTRIES SINCE 2001 AND ACHIEVEMENTS 3.2.1. Situation of labor structure transfer by industries and in industry in Thai Binh in terms of scale 3.2.1.1. Changes in labor ratio by economic industries in Thai Binh In 2005, Thai Binh had 945,9 laborers, increasing 0,66% compared with the number of 2001(939,7 thousand people). In 2010, the figure was 1.005,5 thousand people, increasing 6,3% compared with 2005. In 2012, it was 1012,0 thousand people. Specifically, the changes in labor ratio are as follows: - Changes in labor ratio in three groups of industry: Labor in agriculture, forestry and fishery reduced from 75,12% to 60,76% and further to 58,34% from 2001, 2005 and 2012 accordingly. Labor in industry-construction increased from 12,97% (2001) to 24,12% (2010), 25,40% (2012) while labor in and commerce-service increased from , 11,91% to 15,13% and 16,26% in 2001, 2010 and 2012 respectively. The labor structure transfer by industries in Thai Binh is shown in the following table: Table 3.1: Total number of laborers and labor percentage in economic industries in Thai Binh from 2001 - 2012 Unit: thousand people Comparision (%) Criteria 2001 2005 2007 2009 2010 2011 2012 2005/2001 2010/2005 Total 939,7 945,9 994,1 949,8 1.005,5 1.010,1 1.012,0 + 0,66 + 6,30 laborers Percentage 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 (%) Laborers in agriculture, 705,9 629,7 640,2 601,4 610,9 600,0 590,4 - 10,79 - 2,99 forestry and fishery Perc. (%) 75,12 66,56 64,40 63,32 60,76 59,40 58,34 -8,56 -5,80 Laborers in industry- 121,9 190,0 209,3 203,6 242,5 252,1 257,1 + 55,87 + 27,63 construction Perc. (%) 12,97 20,09 21,05 21,44 24,12 24,96 25,40 + 7,12 + 4,03 Laborers in commerce- 111,9 126,2 144,6 144,8 152,1 158,0 164,5 + 12,87 + 20,43 service Perc. (%) 11,91 13,35 14,55 15,25 15,12 15,64 16,26 + 1,44 + 1,77
12 Source: Yearly statistics of Thai Binh in 2007,2011, 2012 and author’s own caculation - Changes in labor percentage within a group of industries: + In agriculture, forestry and fishery: In 2001, labor in agriculture counted for 99,5% of total number of laborers in agriculture, forestry and fishery. The figure reduced to 95% in 2010 and 2012; labor in fishery, from being not listed in the statistics with small number in the period of 2001-2005, in 2010, it counted for 0,23% and in 2012, 0,44%; labor in fishery increased from 0,45% in 2001 to 4,28% in 2010, and increased to 3,63% in 2012. + In industry-construction: in 2001, there were 90,3 thousand laborers in processing and manufacturing industries, equivalent to 74,06%. In 2010, the number increased to 188,3 thousand people (77,65%) and in 2012, 198,84 thousand people (77,35%); labor in electricity production and distribution …, water provision and waste management and treatment, in 2001, counted for 0,82% and 0,08%, in 2012, 1,03% and 0,4%; labor in construction greatly reduced from 24,06% in 2001 to 20,45% and 20,63% in 2010 and 2012. + In commerce-service : almost of sections in the industry witnessed an increase (relative and absolute) in the number of laborers. The accommodation and eating service had 2,4 thousand people in 2001, 12,2 thousand people in 2010 and 13,85 thousand people in 2012, with corresponding percentages were 2,14%, 8,02% and 8,42%; labor in estate increased from 0,63% (2001) to 1,27% (2012); similarly, laborers in science and technology increased from 0,09% to 0,95%; labor in housekeeping increased from 1,25% to 5,06%; labor in logistics and transportation increased from 5,9% to 7,3% in the same period of time. Some industries experienced slight increase such as automobile, motorbike wholesale, retail, maintenance. Some got slight decrease in laborers such as arts, entertainment and other services. 3.2.1.2. Labor structure transfer by industries ratio in Thai Binh With Vector method, Cos , we can quantify the level of labor structure transfer by industries in Thai Binh from 2001 to 2012 as follows: Table 3.2: Labor structure transfer by industries ratio in Thai Binh from 2001 - 2012 Unit: % Year 01- 02 02- 03 03- 04 04- 05 05- 06 06- 07 07 - 08 08- 09 09 -10 10-11 11-12 n 1,7133 1,7140 1,7140 1,7135 1,7144 1,7143 1,7145 1,7145 1,7129 1,7142 1,7144 In the period of 2001 - 2002 to 2007 - 2008, labor structure transfer by industries ratio of Thai Binh saw not not many changes, which reflected that the changes in labor percentage in industries were not many, in 2009 - 2010, the ratio was at the lowest
13 point, 1,7129% (due to labor force suddenly decreased 44,9 thousand people, from 997,7 thousand in 2008 to 949,8 thousand in 2009). In the period of 2001- 2012, labor in industries transferred from agriculture, forestry and fishery to industry-construction and commerce-service. 3.2.2. Situation of labor structure transfer by industries and in industry in Thai Binh in terms of quality The evaluation of labor structure transfer by industries quality is often based on following criteria: 3.2.2.1. Changes in qualification and professional skills of laborers by industries in Thai Binh - Qualification and professional skills of laborers by industries in Thai Binh The period of 2002 – 2011 saw significant change in laborers’ literacy and qualification. The number of illiterate laborers dramatically reduced, almost one third, from 0,9% to 0,31%; the number of primary school leavers reduced half, from 24% to 12%; the number of secondary school leavers increased from some 60% to about 67% and the number of high school leavers increased from 15% to 22%. This showed that laborers’ literacy and qualification improved a lot, they have more chances to access, improve their technical and professional skills, thus job placement and labor structure transfer became effective. For professional and technical skills: the percentage of people having no skills significantly reduced, from 76,08% (2002) to 70,05% (2005) and to 62,38% (2011); the percentage of people undergoing training of primary level went up from 16,96% in 2002 to 19,37% in 2005 and 21,64% in 2011; the percentage of laborers with intermediate and collegial levels upwards increased from 6,95% in 2002 to 10,57% in 2005 and 15,98% in 2011. - Qualification and professional and technical skills of laborers within industry in Thai Binh + Transfer in agriculture, forestry and fishery: labor in agriculture, forestry and fishery without training, qualifications, certificates slowly reduced, in 2005, 97,59% and in 2011, 96,34%; labor with primary-level training increased from 0,85% to 1,5% in 2011; labor with intermediate level training upwards increased slowly, from 1,56% in 2005 to 2,16% in 2011. Most of laborers in agriculture, forestry and fishery do not have training or just have less than three month training course (about 96-97%), which hindered greatly the labor structure transfer from agricultural industries to non agricultural industries.
14 + Transfer in industry-construction: the number of laborers at under intermediate- level training held high percentage, in 2001, almost 78% , in 2005, almost 76,5% in 2010, 69,5% , in 2011, 68,3%. For laborers with intermediate-level training, in 2001- 2005, the group made up 75- 80%, in 2010 – 2011, 69,5%; laborers with collegial level training counted for 21,68% in 2001, reducing to 19,2% in 2005, increasing to some 22,5% in 2010-2011, laborers with university –level training increased from2,63% (2001) to 7,5%, (2010 - 2011), the increase, however, was still low compared to national level. + Transfer in commerce-service: qualification and training levels of labor in commerce-service in Thai Binh underwent significant changes. In 2005, number of laborers having no training or primary training counted for 68,2%, in 2011, the group just counted for 54,61%; labor with intermediate level training greatly increased, from 31,8% to 45,39% in the same period (increase of 13,6%). The percentage of people at collegial training level had the highest increase 1,23% lên 2,83%; other groups had 1.3 to 1.6 increase. Specifically, percentage of vocational intermediate laborers increased from 5,33% to 7,1%, academic intermediate training, from 7,23% to 11,89%; collegial and university level, from 8,01% to 23,57%. 3.2.2.2. Relation of labor structure transfer by industries and labor structure transfer in industry in Thai Binh In Thai Binh in 2001 - 2012, agriculture, forestry and fishery contribution to GDP reduced 25,4% (on average, about 2,2% each year), industry-construction contribution to GDP increased 18,7% (1,7%/year on average), commerce-service contribution increased 5,27% (0,5%/year on average). Meanwhile, ratio of labor in agriculture, forestry and fishery yearly reduced 1,68%, ratio of labor in industry-construction increased 1,04%, and that in commerce-service increased 0,37%. Also in this period, the GDP transfer and labor structure transfer in agriculture, forestry and fishery was of the same direction. GDP of agriculture, forestry and fishery reduced greatly while labor in agriculture, forestry and fishery reduced more slowly. GDP transfer of industry-construction increased quickly, same with labor in industry-construction though the second did not enjoy the same speed. The commerce-service GDP and labor in commerce-service had relatively equal increase.From above analysis, it is obvious that the speed of labor structure transfer by industries in Thai Binh in the studied period of time did not keep up with transfer of industries in GDP, which made the number of laborers moving slowly from agriculture, forestry and fishery to industry-construction and commerce-service. Especially, the transfer to industry-construction was really slow, the non farming time was still long, impeding work productivity, low income and slow development of the locality.
15 3.2.2.3. Elasticity index of labor supply by income Elasticity index of labor supply by income of the Province in 2001-2012 was not stable . It reached the peak in 2008, at 1,6626%, and the lowest point in 2002 at - 0,8961% and in 2010, 0,2932%. This shows that labor supply did not grow stably and the labor structure transfer by industries in Thai Binh, despite of going in the direction of modernization and industrialization, reducing labor in agriculture, increasing labor in non agriculture industries, the labor structure transfer was not sustainable. In 2008, the highest elasticity index reflected the difference in income of labor in agriculture with labor in other industrial, which led to the fastest labor transfer from agriculture to non agriculture industries in the period of 2001-2011. 3.2.2.4. Labor movement in industries attached to work productivity change by industries Table 3.3: Work productivity by industries in Thai Binh in the period of 2001 - 2012 Unit: million dong/capita -compared price in 1994) Comparison(%) Criteria 2001 2005 2010 2011 2012* 2005/2001 2010/2005 Overall 5,087 6,577 11,357 12,449 33,818 + 29,30 + 72,67 Work productivity in agriculture, forestry + 23,31 + 34,42 and fishery 3,900 4,809 6,464 6,870 18,931 Work productivity in + 14,61 + 135,26 industry-construction 5,969 6,841 16,095 17,798 45,788 Work productivity in + 29,12 + 56,40 commerce-service 11,613 14,995 23,452 25,101 68,535 Source: [10, tr. 34], [12, tr. 41, 42], [13, tr. 44 and author’s calculation] * Work productivity in of Thai Binh in 2012 was calculated using compared price of 2010. From table 3.1 and table 3.3, the relation between labor transfer and change in work productivity can be calculated. In 2001 - 2005, when labor in agriculture, forestry and fishery reduced 8,56%, the industry work productivity increased 23,31%, thus, we can see that one 1% decrease in labor in agriculture, forestry and fishery led to 2,72% industry work productivity; for industry-construction, labor increased 7,12% while work productivity increased 14,61%, each 1% increase in labor led to 2,05% increase in work productivity; similarly, for commerce-service, 1% increase in labor of the industry led to 20,22% increase in work productivity. With the same calculation for the period of 2005 - 2010, 1% decrease in labor in agriculture, forestry and fishery resulted in 5,94% increase in work productivity; 1% increase in labor in industry-
16 construction resulted in 35,56% increase in work productivity; and for commerce- service, 1% increase in labor in commerce-service led to 31,86% increase in work productivity. From above analysis, we can see that, in 2001-2005, in the labor structure transfer of the province, labor transfer of commerce-service was not much but brought high work productivity, while the other industries agriculture, forestry and fishery and industry-construction witnessed much labor transfer but slight increase in work productivity. In the period of 2005 – 2010, the transfer of labor in different industries had more improvements, especially in industry-construction and commerce-service. In 2011 compared with 2010, ratio of agriculture, forestry and fishery labor decreased 1,36% (equivalent to 10,9 thousand laborers) but work productivity increased to 0,406 million dong/head; labor in industry-construction increased 0,34% (equivalent to 9,6 million laborers), its work productivity increased to 1,703 million dong/head; labor in commerce-service increased 0,52% (equivalent to 5,9 thousand laborers), its work productivity increased to 1,649 million dong/head. 3.2.2.5. Relation of GDP per capita and labor structure by industries in Thai Binh In 2012, GDP per capita of Thai Binh was 24 million dong, equivalent to 1.133 USD/ per capita/year, labor ratio of industries of Thai Binh would be (according to economists’ study): labor in agriculture, forestry and fishery counted for 46,5%; labor in industry-construction 22,5%; and labor in commerce-service 31,0%. However, labor structure by industries of Thai Binh in 2012 was 58,34% for agriculture, forestry and fishery, 25,40% for industry-construction and 16,26% for commerce-service. This shows that increase of GDP per capita/year and labor structure transfer by industries of the Province was not appropriate. The labor structure transfer was slow, labor in agriculture, forestry and fishery was too high while that of commerce-service was low. 3.3. LIMITATIONS OF LABOR STRUCTURE TRANSFER BY INDUSTRIES IN THAI BINH AND CAUSES 3.3.1. Limitations in labor structure transfer by industries in Thai Binh Firstly, labor structure transfer by industries in Thai Binh was slow, expressing in following points: (i) The speed of labor structure transfer by 3 groups was slow (set target was that by 2010, the ratios of labor in agriculture, forestry and fishery, industry-construction and commerce-service were 53%, 30% and 17% respectively; while the actual figures in 2012 were 58,34%, 25,40%, and 16,26%). (ii) The speed of labor structure transfer in industry was slow, especially in agriculture. It was because of unclear clarification of sections (one household could be
17 the subject of farming and breeding sections at the same time, it means that the household has farming land, has land to raise pigs and also has ponds to raise fish). Furthermore, the low level of specialization of labor in agriculture in Thai Binh as well as in other provinces in Red River Delta added to the slow labor structure transfer by industry and unclear labor structure. Secondly, the trend of labor structure transfer by industries was not suitable and did not meet requirements of economic structure transfer in the direction of modernization and industrialization and integration. Labor structure transfer byu industries in Thai Binh so far attached to the change in professional skills yet still very limited. The ratio of labor with training was 42%, but labor with vocational training just counted for 29%, it means that quality of labor structure transfer by industries was not high, most of laborers were unskilled . Within agriculture industry, labor from rural areas were mostly seasonal with low specialization. There was no clear role of goods market economy, the production was of small scale with low productivity, low business efficiency, affecting the process of modernization and industrialization of the countryside as well as the development of new rural areas of the Province. Thirdly, the labor structure transfer by industries was of low quality, expressed in following points: (i) labor structure transfer by industries in Thai Binh has not brought high work productivity while general work productivity in the period of 2005 - 2010 increased almost 72,7%, that of industry-construction increased 135,3%, commerce-service work productivity only had 56,4% increase, and that of agriculture was only 34,4% increase. To date, work productivity by industries was 12,45 million dong/head/year, of which work productivity of agriculture was lowest, at 6,87 million dong/head/year, industry work productivity was 17,79 million dong/head/year and service work productivity was 25,10 million dong/head/year. (ii) Labor structure transfer by industries in the Province did not ensure job placements and liberate manual work for laborers. The level of labor in full use was low. Labor structure transfer by industries has not ensured employment for people at working age, has not really liberated laborers from manual work to promote the role of labor resource in economic development. At the moment, the time using labor in agriculture is 75%. In 2012, unemployment rate of the whole province was 2,15%, in urban area, the rate was relatively high, 12%. Job placing for laborers who lost farming land by changing to another jobs, moving labor to other industries was not effective, not stable and seasonal.
18 (iii) Labor structure transfer has not utilized the ready advantages as well as protected local environments. Despite of the advantage of being a coastal province with labor abundance, agriculture, forestry and fishery products of the province are not outstanding. People often know about Hải Hậu rice, Giao Thủy oyster… as famous brands nationally and internationally, but not any agricultural products from Thai Binh. Also, the natural resources conservation was not effective. In raising marine products, the transfer from growing rice to raising shrimps was done massively without being planned, which led to farming land turned salt, causing difficulties for rice growing… the oyster growing was too heated, leading to difficulties in diseases prevention and low productivity... 3.3.2. Limitations causes Firstly, the lack of planning and policy promoting labor structure transfer by industries. For a long time, Thai Binh and other provinces in Red River Delta in particular and in the whole country in general had no plan on human resources and labor structure transfer in an effective way. Recently, Thai Binh has drafted the planning on human resources in the period of 2011 – 2020. It was approved in July 2012. The Province lacks many policies promoting labor structure transfer by industries. Some issued policies were not very effective, inappropriate and inconsistent such as policies favoring and supporting, attracting investors into industrial parks, industrial complex; policy on compensating, converting land use purposes , policy on farming land planning... Secondly, the speed of modernization and industrialization, integration, urbanization of the Province was slow. Industrial parks and complex were not developed. Urbanization speed was slow. Urbanization process did not equally develop in different areas, mostly focused in Thai Biinh city, other towns were small with low population density, limited socio infrastructure, urban areas were established in terms of administration only without attaching to economic development. Thirdly, resources promoting labor structure transfer by industries of the Province were limited: human resources training of low quality, especially vocational professional training, capital market activities were limited, capital investment mostly was from national projects, financial institutions were not diversified and flexible. The applications of science-technology advancement were limited, there were not enough competent people in professions and management. Fourthly, other factors: narrowed import activities; labor export facing difficulties….which all increased pressure for job creation, placement, social security in locality.