Vietnam Facts

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Economic reforms have turned Vietnam into the third fastest growing economy in the region, following China and India in 2007. Growth in Manufacturing and Construction has been the main engine for GDP growth in Vietnam. Biggest contributions to GDP growth in 2007 include: Manufacturing: 10.6%, Services: 8.7% and Agriculture: 3.5% A record growth rate of 8.4% has been achieved in 2007

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Nội dung Text: Vietnam Facts

Vietnam Facts Frankfurt, 30/4/ 2008 0
Content 1. Vietnam economic outlook 2. Major reforms 1
1 Vietnam Economic Outlook 2
Major socioeconomic indices Rapid growth has been maintained, inflation under control. 2006 has marked a high growth rate of 8.2% per year Real Real Real Real Real 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 GDP Growth Rate 7.2% 7.7% 8.4% 8.17% 8.48% Industry 10.3% 10.2% 10.6% 10.4% 10.6% Agriculture, Forestry, Fishery 3.2% 3.5% 4.0% 3.6% 3.5% Services 6.6% 7.5% 8.5% 8.29% 8.7% CPI 3.0% 9.5% 8.4% 6.6% 12.6% Export Earning Growth 20.8% 28.9% 22.4% 22.0% 22% Budget Deficit/ GDP 2.0% 1.5% 1.6% 1.8% 1.8% Total Investment/GDP 35.0% 36.6% 38.7% 40% 41.5% FDI (US$ tỷ) 2.65 2.90 3.30 4.1 16.2 Poor Household Percentage NA 18.1% NA 15.47 14.75% Urban Unemployment Rate 5. 8% 5.6% 5.13% 5.32% 5.1% Phần trăm thời gian ở khu vực nông thôn 77.4% 79.3% 80.7% NA NA Job Creation (thousand people) 1,500 1,100 1.200 1.500 1.550 Children Proportion 28% 26% 26% NA NA Nguồn: BTC 3
One of the fastest growing economies in Asia – Sustainable GDP Growth Economic reforms have turned Vietnam into the third fastest growing economy in the region, following China and India in 2007 „ Growth in Manufacturing and Construction has been the main engine for GDP growth in Vietnam „ Biggest contributions to GDP growth in 2007 include: Manufacturing: 10.6%, Services: 8.7% and Agriculture: 3.5% „ A record growth rate of 8.4% has been achieved in 2007 Real GDP Growth (2000 2006E) GDP Growth in the Region (Giá cả hiện tại) (%) 8.4% 8.2% 8.5% Nước 2004 2005 2006 2007 7.8% 7.3% China 10.1 10.4 11.1 11.4 6.8% 6.9% 7.1% India 7.9 9.1 9.7 9.2 Vietnam 7.8 8.4 8.2 8.5 Singapo 9.0 7.3 8.2 7.7 Indonesia 5.0 5.7 5.5 6.3 Malaysia 6.8 5.0 5.9 6.3 Philippines 6.6 4.9 5.4 7.3 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Thái Lan 6.3 4.5 5.1 4.9 Source: Ministry of Finance Source: IMF Vietnam has good conditions to successfully complete its industrialization process 4
Reasonable GDP Growth Rates Even though the services sectors have been growing steadily, making remarkable contributions to the overall economic growth, the country’s GDP growth has still mainly attributed to the manufacturing sector (% share) Real GDP Contribution (% YoY) GDP Growth By Sector 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 10,6 10,37 10,6 22,4 20,2 19,6 20,36 20,25 10,3 10,2 9,4 38,7 8,5 8,7 8,3 8,0 7,0 40,4 40,3 38,1 38,1 6,5 41,0 38,6 4,1 4,0 3,5 3,4 3,4 3,2 39,4 40,2 41,6 41,6 36,6 22,7 1990 2001 2004 2005 2006 2007 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Industry Services Agriculture Industry Services Agriculture Source: Ministry of Finance Source: Ministry of Finance 5
Prudent Budget Control Vietnam’s Fiscal policy has been reformed through expenditure control and revenue expansion measures „ Since 2000, budget deficit has been maintained below the target of 2.5% GDP Expenditure cannot exceed Revenue Commercial loans for budget expenditure purposes are forbidden „ Tax reforms concentrate on direct solutions in tax collections Fiscal Position (2000 2007) Total Revenue Breakdown (2007) „ By the end of the fiscal year of 2007, budget (VND billion) (%) deficit was kept at 1.8%/GDP Cuối năm tài Other 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 12.8% khoá 2007, thâm hụt NS ở mức 18%/GDP Income Tax NonTax Revenue 38.7% 4.4% 2.8% 2.5% 1.9% 1.8% Capital Revenue 1.6% 1.8% 1.8% 1.1% 5.8% (10,017) Natural Res. Tax (10,904) (12,142) (12,402) (12,025) 7.7% (13,300) Import and Export Tax (17,213) Value Added Tax 8.6% Fiscal Balance % GDP 22.1% Note: Figures calculated under IMF standards Source: Ministry of Finance Source: Ministry of Trade 6
External Debts under control Vietnam’s external debts position has been improved considerably in recent years „ The targets of external debts not exceeding 20% of export earnings and total debts not exceeding 50% GDP have been achieved. Debt Service Coverage „ Current with respect to debt payments on all External Debt Obligations (%) outstanding external debt (US$ triệu) 11.1% 10,4% 1,030 946 899 8,1% 160 7,1% 7,1% 7,5% 154 146 752 762 6,7% 39.1% 38,9% 7,0% 133 125 35,3% 33,7% 32,1% 31,5% 30,5% 30,0% 870 792 753 619 638 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2006 2007 2008F 2009F 2010F Total External Debt / GDP DSR Principal Interest Note: Debt Service Ratio is calculated as ration of total debt service to exports of Source: Ministry of Finance, State Bank of Việt Nam goods and nonfactor services in % Source: Ministry of Finance, State Bank of Việt Nam Vietnam has been improving the administration of external debts, one of the measures to improve effective administration of the financial sector in the country 7
Improving BoP Position Vietnam’s Balance of Payments has been improved through more sustainable foreign reserves Current Account (2000 2007) (US$ triệu) 3,7% 2,1% 0,9% 0,7% (2.5%) (4.9%) (2.0%) 2,50% Balance of Payments (2000 2007) 1.142 682 270 (863) (1,931) 217 (US$ triệu) 10.700 (925) 1.800 8,6% 15,0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 5,4% 6,8% Current Account As % of GDP 1,0% 1,9% 0,1% (1.0%) Capital Account (2000 2007) (US$ triệu) 2.150 2.131 2.874 8.3% 6.0% 12.0% 6.2% 17.00% 883 5.8% 323 40 350 (2.4%) 0.7% 4,083 2,447 1,913 2,604 1,136 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 (754) 220 BOP As % of GDP 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Capital Account As % of GDP Nguồn: BTC, NHNN Nguồn: BTC, State Bank of Việt Nam Foreign capital inflows have resulted in a surplus in Vietnam’s Balance of Payments 8
Stable Exchange Rates Vietnam maintains a managed float in its foreign exchange regime „ A flexible exchange rate of the Vietnam Dong has facilitated exports „ Riskmitigating costs of foreign investors have been lowered Exchange Rates (1995 – 2007) 17.000 15.875 16.049 16.000 16150 15.608 15.740 15.000 15.368 15.070 14.504 14.000 14.018 13.000 12.985 2/1999: Fixed exchange 12.000 rate regime changed 11.023 11.050 into a managed float 11.000 11.175 regime 10.000 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Nguồn: NHNN The exchange rate stability has successfully facilitated trade and investment 9
4 Stable Exchange Rate – Foreign Reserves Official Foreign Reserves Foreign Reserves Improvement (ml US$) (Months of imports) 9000 21.000 12.000 4.272 7.728 5.554 2.174 4.866 1.910 2.555 2.956 688 365 399 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Source: Ministry of Finance Source: Ministry of Finance Foreign reserves continue to grow steadily 10
2 Major Reforms 11
2 3 SOE Reforms Nonstate sectors Development 1 Trade 4 Liberalization Banking Reforms 7 5 Legal Capital Market Reforms Development 6 Fiscal Reforms 12
1 Trade Liberalization: Next steps Lots of effective trade liberalization measures have boosted international trade „ Vietnam’s 5year period trade policies beginning in 2001 reduced non tariff barriers to trade „ Since the conclusion of the US – Vietnam BTA in 2001, Vietnam’s export turnover to the US increased from USD 1.1 bn in 2001 to USD 10.7 bn in 2007 „ Total export turnover reached USD 48.6 bn in 2007 Sequence of major reforms in trade Export Earnings (2000 2007) liberalization (US$ billion) 48,6 Tariff and Non tariff barriers negotiations 19,5% 19,9% 18,8% 18,3% 14,7% 22,00% 5,1% 7,1% 39,8 Banking Sector Development and SOE 32,4 Reforms 26,5 20,1 16,7 Tax and Customs Reforms 14,5 15,0 Creation of sufficient social security 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Exports % to US Transparency in the legal system Source: Ministry of Trade, General Statistical Office WTO entry for Vietnam will facilitate an acceleration of marketbased reforms 13
2 SOE Reforms SOE Reforms facilitate the development of the private sector and reduce the debt burden of the State SOE Reform Measures Remarkable Reduction of SOEs (number of SOEs) Equitization and Development of the 12.300 Securities Market SOE Sellout 4.800 4.050 Development of group model 3.067 2.627 1.807 Removal of state subsidies 1990 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Source: Ministry of Finance SOE reform continues to make solid progress 14
3 Development of the Private Sector Recent solutions for the development of SMEs Private Sector’s contribution to the Solutions for the development of economy SMEs (% of GDP) The Land Law 65.0 59.8 61.5 61.3 62.8 64.7 65.8 The Enterprise Law 40.2 38.5 38.7 37.2 35.3 35.0 34.2 Simplification of registration procedures 1995 2000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 State Nonstate Trade promotion and improvement of export earnings Source: Ministry of Finance The total number of enterprises by 2005 was 220,000, which number is expected to grow to 500,000 by 2010 The private sector emerges to be growth engine of the economy 15
4 Banking Reforms The legal framework for reforming stateowned commercial banks was formulated by the Khuôn khổ pháp lý cho việc cải cách hệ thống Government in April 2001 with a view to enhancing the financial capacity, supporting the NHTMNN được CP ký ban hành vào 4/2001 để nâng cao năng lực tài chính và hỗ trợ tái cơ cấu các NH restructuring of banks and building trust. và xây dựng lòng tin. The State Bank is turned into the Central Bank „ Continue to restructure 36 JSBs under the supervision of the State Bank Restructuring Joint when listed Stock Banks (JSBs) „ 4 joint venture banks and 9 foreign bank branches „ Restructuring 4 stateowned commercial banks Restructuring State „ Applying international accounting standards to have a better evaluation of owned commercial the size of bad debts and to improve transparency in the banking system banks „ Improving corporate governance and liberalizing the interest policies, encouraging stateowned commercial banks to provide accurate evaluation of losses due to nonperforming loans Improving the legal „ Enhancing supervision by the State Bank framework for „ Developing internal accounting standards in line with international supervising the standards sector „ Gradually improving corporate governance capacity and competitiveness Creating a level of the banks playing field for all banks „ Limiting the GiớI hạn huy động tiền gửI bằng nộI tệ đốI vớI NH nước ngoài, phù hợp vớI các cam kết quốc tế 16
5 Developing the internal capital market „ Currently, over 400 bonds and 229 shares are listed on Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange and Hanoi Securities Trading Centre „ By 2007, the market capitalization value amounted to 30% GDP VN Index 2005 2007 Number of listed shares on HOSE 154 120 32 20 22 26 5 10 Period: 1/2005 – 24/4/2008 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Source: Bloomberg, Ministry of Finance In 2006 and 2007, the domestic capital market grew rapidly both in terms of quantiy and quality 17
5 Development of a bond market The Government of Vietnam promotes the mobilization of funds from the local sector to ensure the economic growth of the country Since 2000, the local bond market has witnessed significant progresses Domestic Government Debt Internal Debt Obligations (US$ billion) (VND trillion) 8,7 14,0 14,0 11,8% 12,5 11,9 11,4 11,8 10,6% 12,1% 10,9 10,9 10,9 10,9 8,8% 8,2% 6,2% 6,5% 5,1% 1,6 2,0 2,3 3,3 4,0 5,6 7,2 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2006 2008F 2010F 2012F 2014F 2007 2009F 2011F 2013F 2015F Total Debt Total Debt (% GDP) Source: Ministry of Finance Source: Ministry of Finance 18
6 Financial Reforms Effective Financial Reforms have helped create a sound financial environment for both local and foreign enterprises „ Applying the same tax system for all economic sectors, a corporate income tax rate of 28% is uniformly imposed on both local and foreign invested Standardized taxation enterprises system „ Promoting the reform of tax administration „ Institutionalizing and modernizing tax and customs administration „ Increasing savings for development investment Tightly controlling the „ Reducing government subsidies state budget „ Reforming the salary and subsidy system „ Improving transparency with the involvement of GDDS from IMF Flexible management „ Tight control of the government expenditure of public finance „ Emphasis on better administration of external debts „ Making public the financial status of enterprises Supervision of local „ Taking necessary measures to supervise the financial situation of enterprises enterprises and to effectively implement the taxation system 19