Giảm nhập siêu bằng cách nào

NGHIEN CUU - TRAO DOI<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> d m m i P w i n s m C A C H m o i<br /> M<br /> <br /> • AN BINH nhtf ndng san, nguyen lieu hoac Viet Nam d6 vap cac rao can<br /> hang hda tham dung lao dpng... thtfdng mai.<br /> cd gia tri thap. Ngtfdc lai, NK Thtfc trang cua ndn kinh te<br /> Diem sang cua hoat dong<br /> toan nhtfng san pham cd gia tri Viet Nam ke ttf khi hpi nhap<br /> XNK trong 8 thang nam 2010,<br /> cao nhtf may mdc, thiet bi, hang kinh te qud'c te den nay, mtfc dp<br /> la nhap sieu co dau hieu<br /> tieu dung cao cap... gia tang nhap sieu cua chung ta<br /> giam dan. Tong kim ngach XK<br /> 8 thang qua dat 44,52 ti USD De thay nha't la trong nam lien tuc tang.<br /> (tang 19,7% so vdi cung ki 2009, trong 12 san pham cd kim Theo TS. Nguyen Ngpc Bao.<br /> nam 2009) trong khi do tdng ngach XK tren 1 ty USD, cd tdi Vu trtfdng Vu chinh sach tidn te<br /> kim ngach NK dat 52,68 ti 5 mat hang ndng nghiep (thuy (NHNN), nhap sieu lien tuc tang<br /> USD (tang 24,4% so vdi cung san, gao, gd, ca phe, cao su)... la do ben canh nhtfng nguyen<br /> ki) dua tdng mdc nhap sieu Trong luc dd, hang NK chu yeu vat lieu may mdc thie't bi phuc<br /> (tham hut thddng mai) len la thie't bi may mdc. linh kien, vu XK, nhdm hang vd mdy mdc<br /> den 8,16 ti USD, bang dien ttf, hda chat, tan dtfdc... thie't bi, phu tung, hang hda de<br /> 18,31% kim ngach XK. Theo Nhap sieu thtfdng kem theo thtfc hien cac dtf dn ddu ttf cd sd<br /> Udc tinh cua Bo Ke hoach va la gia giam, ngtfdi tieu dung dtfdc ha tdng va cdc dtf dn khdng XK<br /> Dau td, can can thddng mai htfdng ldi, trong khi san xua't chie'm ti trpng 30% (thdi ki 2000<br /> nam 2010 cd the tham hut trong ntfdc thi bi canh tranh, - 2009) trong ti trpng kim ngach<br /> 10,1 ti USD. Song, nhap sieu giam thi phdn, XK dtfdc xem la NK. Do vay, ngay ca khi san<br /> cua Viet Nam vin con la van ctfu canh de giam mtfc tham hut xuat va XK giam sut, lam giam<br /> de dang lo ngai. thtfdng mai vdn con nhieu didu dp ltfc NK nguyen lieu ddu vao<br /> chtfa dn. Theo Bp Cdng Thtfdng, thi nhu cdu NK ve nhdm hang<br /> Nhap sieu "can benh" cd do thuan ldi ve gia, cung - cdu nay de hoan thanh cdc dtf an<br /> htfu va ti gia, 8 thang nam 2010. kim dau ttf hoac thtfc hien cac dtf an<br /> ngach XK cua Viet Nam tang gan ddu ttf mdi vdn gay dp ltfc ldn tdi<br /> Trong 25 nam ddi mdi, chi<br /> 20% so vdi cung ki nam 2009. can can. Ngay ca khdi DN FDI<br /> cd mot nam xuat sieu nhe (41<br /> Ldn ddu tien nhtfng nganh cd cung nhap sieu. Chang han nam<br /> trieu USD nam 1992) cdn cd 24<br /> kim ngach XK vtfpt ngtfdng 1 ti 2009, khu vtfc FDI xuat sieu gan<br /> nam nhap sieu gan nhtf lien<br /> USD dat de'n con so 13 chi trong 5 ti USD, nhtfng ne'u khdng tinh<br /> tuc, trong thdi gian dai va ttfdng<br /> dd'i ldn. vdng 8 thdng qua. Dtf kien tang XK ddu thd thi lai chuyen thanh<br /> trtfdng XK trong 4 thang cdn lai nhap sieu khoang 1.2 ti USD.<br /> Nhap sieu cua Viet Nam giai<br /> cua nam 2010 van kha quan, Tinh de'n he't 8 thang nam 2010.<br /> doan 2005 - 2010:<br /> song cung da bpc Id nhtfng khd khu vtfc nay xuat sieu gdn 1,6 ti<br /> 2005: 4,3 ti USD; 2006: 5,1 khan can dtfdng XK nhtf phu USD, nhtfng khdng tinh ddu thd<br /> ti USD; 2007: 14,1 ti USD; thudc qua ldn vao nguyen lieu thi nhap sieu gdn 1,7 ti USD...<br /> 2008: 17,5 ti USD; 2009: 12,2 NK (thtfdng chie'm tren 80%) va Ben canh dd, theo cac chuyen<br /> ti USD; 2010: du" kien 13 ti USD thieu lao dpng cd tay nghe. Han gia, viec NK cac hang hda tieu<br /> Theo GS-TS. Hoang Thi che nay khdng chi anh htfdng dung xa xi cung dang ngay mpt<br /> Chinh, Trtfdng Dai hpc Kinh te ldn de'n ham ltfdng gia tri gia tang khi mtfc sd'ng ngtfdi dan<br /> TP.HCM (UEH), nhap sieu cua tang cua cac san pham XK ma dtfdc nang len. Dd la mdt trong<br /> ntfdc ta xua't phat ttf cd cau hang cdn chtfa dtfng nhidu yeu to rui nhtfng nguyen nhan khien nhap<br /> hda XNK "bat can xtfng". Chting ro ve bien ddng gia va ngudn sieu cua Viet Nam van la can<br /> ta XK chti yeu la san pham thd cung nguyen lieu khien cac DN benh cd htfu.<br /> 18 I THUONG MAI So 30/2010<br />  | NGHIENCtfU-TRAODPI<br /> <br /> Ben canh do, nganh cong<br /> nghiep phu trp cua nu'dc ta con<br /> eo udt. Chang han nhu" nganh<br /> det may, hang nam sti dung<br /> khong dtidi 500 trieu met vai de<br /> lam hang XK nhting co de'n 80%<br /> so vai tren phai nhap! Chi rieng<br /> nam 2009 ntidc ta nhap so vai<br /> tri gia gan 4,3 ty USD, chtia ke<br /> de'n nhu'ng nguyen phu lieu<br /> khac.<br /> GS-TS. Vd Thanh Thu (UEH)<br /> cho r i n g mdt trong nhu'ng<br /> nguyen nhan dan de'n nhap sieu<br /> la do hang hda san xua't trong<br /> ntidc canh tranh kem, chat D$t may, hang nam su dung khdng dddi 500 trieu m vai de lam<br /> ltidng thap nhting gia lai cao hdn hang XK nhUng cd den 80% so'vai tren phai nhap<br /> 5% - 10% so vdi hang NK. Dd la<br /> do chting ta thieu thdng tin vd leo nen nhi6u san pham trong vd'n, cdn giam ldi suat cho vay<br /> thi trtidng, lac hau ve trinh dp ntidc san xua't dtidc van nhap ve xudng khoang 12%/nam. Mud'n<br /> cdng nghe va quan ly san xua't... nhti mudi, gao, trai cay, tdi, thit vay, ngoai cac giai phdp vd<br /> Ngoai ra, tam ly "vpng ngoai" heo, gia cam... Ngoai ra, cdng tac chinh sach tidn te cung phai<br /> cdn nang ne nen mdt bp phan dti bao va thdng tin cdn yeu nen thay ddi tti duy ngtidi gdi tien<br /> nhieu nganh rdi vao canh "chet phai dtidc htidng lai suat dtidng<br /> dan cti cd dieu kien da tieu dting<br /> dd" nhti phan bdn (thtia nhting (Mi suat tiet kiem phai cao hdn<br /> "qua tay" nhidu san pham NK xa<br /> van nhap). gao phai ban re... chi so lam phat); cd vay mdi han<br /> xi nhti xe hdi, dien thoai di<br /> PGS-TS. Tran Hoang Ngan che dtidc ddng tien chay vao tieu<br /> ddng, my pham...<br /> (Phd Hieu trtidng UEH) dti bao dung va tang ddng vd'n lai suat<br /> Tuy nhien, ca GS-TS. Vd<br /> thap rot vao linh vtic san xua't.<br /> Thanh Thu va GS-TS. Hoang nam nay Viet Nam cd the kiem<br /> soat nhap sieu d ti le dtidi 20% Dieu dang ndi d day la nhap<br /> Thj Chinh ddu cho rang cdng<br /> kim ngach XK nhting ne'u tinh sieu cua Viet Nam khdng phai tti<br /> tac d ieu hanh XNK cua chung<br /> hinh nhap sieu cti "Iting ld tren thi trtidng cd hang ky thuat cao,<br /> ta cdn yeu kem nen dan de'n<br /> dau" nhti vay, tham hut vang lai cd cdng nghe ngudn. Trung Qud'c<br /> nhap sieu. Trtidc he't ta chtia<br /> cua ntidc ta se tiep tuc nam tren la ban hang XK ldn thti ba cua<br /> xay dting dtidc cac rao can<br /> Viet Nam sau My va Nhat Bdn<br /> thtidng mai cd hieu qua va phu mtic bao ddng (5% GDP, hien<br /> vdi tdng kim ngach NK tti Viet<br /> hdp vdi thdng le qud'c te. Ddn nay la 8% GDP).<br /> Nam trong ndm 2009 khoang<br /> cti nhti hang nam DN ntidc ta Do vay. theo PGS-TS Trdn 4,91 ti USD (8.6% tdng kim<br /> NK hang ti USD ndng san Hoang Ngan. cdn phai dieu ngach XK cua Viet Nam). Duy<br /> nhifng ta chtia xac dinh dtidc chinh lai cd cau kinh te; khuyen chi cd nam 1999, Viet Nam xuat<br /> tieu chuan ve chat ltidng va an khich ddu tti vao cac nganh cd sieu sang Trung Qud'c 73 trieu<br /> toan ve sinh thtic pham cho ldi the canh tranh cao nhti ndng USD nhting tti nam 2000 den<br /> nhifng mat hang nay. nghiep, che bien...; tai cau true nay, Viet Nam trd thanh ntidc<br /> Khdng nhting vay, chat ltidng khdi DNNN: ndng cao hieu qua nhap sieu tti Trung Qudc vdi ti le<br /> cua cac chien Itidc phat trien ddu tti cdng va kiem soat chat 90% trong tdng nhap sieu va<br /> kinh te dai han d cac ca'p cdn che cac khoan chi tieu bdng dtidc dti bao tie'p tuc gia tang. Cd<br /> yeu. Hien ttidng tranh mua. ngan sach. lam sao nhanh sd dtia ra cua dti bao nay la cd<br /> tranh ban. tif minh hai minh chdng dtia mire bdi chi ngan cau hang XK cua Viet<br /> cdn phd bien. Do quan ly long sach xudng dtidi 5% GDP. Ve Nam sang Trung Qud'c<br /> THUONG MAI So 30/2010 I 19<br /> NGHIEN CUU-TRAO 001<br /> <br /> <br /> Nhap sieu gay nhidu khd khan<br /> cho viec dn dinh ti gid. dn djnh<br /> kinh te vi md.<br /> Vi vay. de cd the tang trtfdng<br /> bdn vtfng. kiem soat nhap sieu<br /> phai ld tfu tien so mpt hien nay.<br /> Theo PGS-TS. Trdn Hoang Ngan<br /> (UEH) de kiem soat nhap sieu<br /> chting ta cd the lam theo hai<br /> giai doan. Trong 5 nam tdi dtfa<br /> nhap sieu ve dtfdi 10% kim<br /> ngach XK, 5 nam tie'p theo la<br /> can bdng va tie'n tdi xuat sieu.<br /> Chi khi xuat sieu. dtf trtf ngoai<br /> hdi tang len thi chung ta mdi<br /> bdt lo ve tang ti gia. kiem soat<br /> td't lam phat. cai thien can can<br /> Vi$c NK cac hang hoa tieu dung xa xi cung la mdt tong nhung nguyen nhan thanh toan vang lai... Khi dd, cd<br /> khien nh$p sieu cua Vi$t Nam van la can b$nh co hdu<br /> the tie'n tdi ttf do hda chuyen ddi<br /> dang dtfdc dieu chinh Theo TS. Vo Tri Thanh, Phd VND va thtfc hien cd che ti gia<br /> theo htfdng han che ddn viec XK vien trtfdng Vien Nghien ctfu tha ndi nhtf cac ntfdc phdt trien<br /> nhdm hang nguyen lieu, nhien quan ly kinh te Trung tfdng, hien nay. Nhtf vay, de thtfc hien<br /> lieu va khoang san thd. Song. nhap sieu ndi chung va nhap dtfdc muc tieu nay, chung ta cdn<br /> nhdm hang chie'm ti trong trung sieu ttf Trung Qud'c ndi rieng chi phai didu chinh cd cau kinh te,<br /> binh khoang 55 - 60% trong giai quye't dtfdc khi san xuat da xay dtfng chien ltfdc phat trien<br /> tdng kim ngach XK cua Viet dap tfng dtfdc nhu cdu va tang ttfng nganh nghd, cd chinh sach<br /> Nam sang thi trtfdng nay. Hdn dtfdc XK. Dieu nay lai phu thupc khuyen khich ddu ttf vao linh<br /> ntfa, neu cac DN NK khdng tim vao cd cau ndn kinh te, chinh vtfc cd ldi the canh tranh cao<br /> dtfdc ngudn hang khac thay the sach ddu ttf. md hinh phat trien nhtf: ndng nghiep, cdng nghiep,<br /> ma vdn phai NK nguyen lieu, cua Viet Nam va phdi lam the che bien... nang cao hieu qua<br /> thie't bi. san pham ttf Trung nao de tao ra mpt kha nang ddu ttf cdng va kiem soat chat<br /> Qud'c vdi so ltfdng ldn nhtf hien canh tranh td't. che chi tieu ngan sach, cd giai<br /> nay thi khd cd the hi vpng giam phap tdng the va chi tiet tai cau<br /> De bu ddp cho nhap sieu,<br /> nhap sieu. true theo htfdng tinh gon, hieu<br /> chung ta da dtfa vao ngudn kieu<br /> Phai thay ddi can ban trong hd'i, dau ttf trtfc tie'p ntfdc ngoai. qua hoat ddng ciia DNNN, tap<br /> chinh sach cua Nha nu'dc vay nd qud'c te... Chung ta da doan, TCty nha ntfdc, khuyen<br /> Trong giai doan 2010 - 2015. danh cho nha dau ttf ntfdc ngoai khich phat trien kinh te ttf<br /> Bp Cdng Thtfdng dat muc tieu nhidu tfu dai (thue, dat dai...). nhan, Cty cd phdn...<br /> tang trtfdng XK sang Trung Qud'c Tuy nhien, ne'u duy tri mai chi Ben canh dd, cdn tan dung<br /> binh quan dat khoang 20%/nam giai quye't dtfdc khd khan trtfde cd hdi la thanh vien cua WTO,<br /> va tdc dp NK binh quan mdi mdt va cang lam cho tinh trang tan dung cac hiep dinh thtfdng<br /> nam tang them 10%. Tuy td'c dp nhap sieu tram trpng hdn. mai song phtfdng va da phtfdng<br /> gia tang XK ldn gap ddi NK Chang han cdc dtf an bat dpng de gia tang XK. Ttf ngay<br /> nhtfng kim ngach NK hien cao san, khi khdi dpng cdn rat nhidu 1/1/2010. khu vtfc mau dich ttf<br /> gap hdn ba lan kim ngach XK. ngoai te de NK vat ttf xay dtfng. do ldn nhat the gidi ASEAN -<br /> vi vay thu hep khoang each sau dd ban san pham tai thi Trung Qud'c chinh thtfc hoat<br /> nhap sieu gitfa Viet Nam va trtfdng Viet Nam va tim mua ddng, theo dd khoang 9.000<br /> Trung Qud'c la rat khd. ngoai te de chuyen ve ntfdc. nhdm hang hda va dich vu,<br /> 20 I THUONG MAI So 30/2010<br />  | NGHIENC»U-TRAPBOI<br /> <br /> <br /> ttidng dtfdng 90% tdng lifdng chuyen ngoai te ra ntfdc ngoai; Dieu dang ndi d day la. de'n<br /> trao ddi thifdng mai song kiem soat cac ddn vi cho vay nay nhdng giai phap kidm che<br /> phifdng difdc cat giam hoac bai ngoai te tang trifdng cao. nhap sieu chinh van mang tinh<br /> bd thue NK. Theo GS-TS. Vd Trong nhieu giai phap tdng hanh chinh va tinh tinh hudng<br /> Thanh Thu, cung can xay dting the, GS-TS. Doan Thi Hdng Van nhU: han ngach thue quan, dp<br /> cd che khuyen khich cac DN (UEH) nhan manh de'n viec cai dung cap phep NK tti dpng, tang<br /> nang cao gia tri gia tang nhti: thien nang lpc cua DN Viet thue NK tap trung vao hang tieu<br /> danh thue vdi hang XK gia tri Nam. Theo ba, cac nha quan ly dung xa xi pham (du ti trpng<br /> thap. midn thue vdi hang XK gia cung DN can ddi mdi tit duy, td nhdm hang nay rat thap) va mpt<br /> tri cao. Vi du gia tri ao sd mi XK bd thdi quen "tac chien ddc lap" so may mdc thie't bi trong nUdc<br /> dudi 10 USD thue XK la 2%, gia va thay bang tif duy "cung da san xuat dtidc. Tuy nhien,<br /> 1 0 - 2 5 USD la 1%. Didu nay chung sd'ng", phai doan ket va con so nhap sieu vdn cdn kha<br /> eho ldi the kep la vifa thuc day lien minh de cung tdn tai va ldn. Khdng the mai dtia vao pha<br /> DN san xuat san pham cd gia tri phat trien d tdm qud'c te. Nhu'ng gia ddng npi te de hd trd XK ma<br /> gia tang cao vtfa giam dtidc cac DN du manh can lam ddu tau, cdn phai cd htidng chuyen dich<br /> vu kien chdng ban pha gia d ddng ra lien ke't cac nha cung cd cau theo htidng tang XK hang<br /> nude NK do gia XK re. cap, phan phd'i, dich vu, khach cd ham ltidng gia tri gia tang<br /> Ve chinh sach tien te, hdng de tao thanh chudi cung cao, phat trien cdng nghiep phu<br /> TS. Nguydn Ngpc Bao cho biet, dng hoan chinh. Cac DN vtfa va trp... de giai quye't can cd bai<br /> de khuyen khich XK, han che nhd thi nen thay ddi tu" dinh toan nhap sieu hien nay.<br /> nhap sieu NHNN dang tap trung htfdng san pham sang dinh Theo TS. Nguyen Quang A,<br /> dau tif vd'n tin dung day manh hudng cdng doan, tap trung vao Chinh phu da nhieu ldn tuyen<br /> XK. cho vay ngoai te dd'i vdi mat mpt vai cdng doan cd Uu the, bd khdng khuyen khich, khdng<br /> hang thie't yeu cho san xua't; tich ctic chuan bi moi didu kien theo dudi chinh sach "thay the<br /> didu hanh ti gia mdt each linh cdn thie't de sdn sang tham gia hang NK", nhting cdc so lieu cua<br /> hoat; dieu tiet giam lai suat cho vao cac chudi cung Ung (npi dia, nhidu nam qua van cho thay<br /> vay hdp li. Ben canh dd, NHNN khu vUc va toan cdu) do DN chinh sach tren vdn cdn tdn tai.<br /> kiem soat viec sd dung ngoai te. khac dUng ddu. Dang Itiu y la, tdc dp tang<br /> trtidng gia tri gia tang cua cac<br /> ngdnh thay the NK ngdy cang<br /> tang (d mtic khoang 7% nam<br /> 2005 tang len khoang 12% nam<br /> 2008). cdn cua cac nganh<br /> htidng XK lai giam di trong cting<br /> thdi ki. Ndi cdch khac. chinh<br /> sach tiu ai cua Nha ntidc vdi<br /> khu vtic san xuat hang "thay<br /> the hdng NK" (ma cd le la cac<br /> tap doan va DNNN) cd the la<br /> nguyen nhan chinh cho hien<br /> ttidng tren.<br /> Viec dieu chinh ti gia<br /> VND/USD vtia qua chdc se lam<br /> diu nhap sieu di mpt chtit. song<br /> de cai thien tinh hinh NK cua<br /> Viet Nam cdn de'n nhting thay<br /> ddi can ban trong chinh sach<br /> Hang NK van ngay dem cip cang Viet Nam cua Nha ntidc •<br /> THUONG MAI So 30 2010 I 21<br />