Project risk analysis

The main aim of this paper is to propose a risk assessment framework using Artificial Neural Network (ANN) technique. Three main phases of the proposed framework are risk management phase, ANN training phase and framework application phase.

12p viyoko 24-09-2024 1 1   Download

Bài giảng "Lập và phân tích dự án cho kỹ sư - Chương 8: Rủi ro và bất định trong phân tích dự án" cung cấp cho người học các kiến thức: Tổng quan rủi ro và bất định, phân tích độ nhạy (sensitivity analysis), phân tích rủi ro (risk analysis) bằng giải tích. Mời các bạn cùng tham khảo.

31p nanhankhuoctai10 23-07-2020 38 9   Download

This work aimed to study and analysis the various risk associated with different environment. The selected method consists of market risks and operating risks.

10p guineverehuynh 18-06-2020 25 4   Download

This research will investigate  the risks associated with  IACs and determine the risk mitigation strategies  applied by  the consortia investigated  to  increase  the probability of project success at  a local  level and the  success  of  IACs at  a  global level.

130p nguyenyenyn117 17-06-2019 61 7   Download

Nội dung bài viết trình bày cung cấp một quy trình phân tích rủi ro như là một công cụ của quản lý rủi ro cho các dự án xây dựng, trình bày một phương pháp khá đơn giản để phân tích rủi ro về mặt chi phí của nhà thầu trong giai đoạn thi công với công cụ hổ trợ là phần mềm phân tích rủi ro chuyên dụng Crystal Ball.

6p roongkloi 01-09-2017 128 15   Download

The two projects have the same economic impact, in terms of generating income for factors of production and inducing additional expenditures, but the hospital has a higher net present value than the hole in the ground.

19p muaxuan102 21-02-2013 67 8   Download

We have seen how in conducting efficiency benefit-cost analysis we often use market prices, either directly or indirectly, to value or cost project outputs or inputs. We use market prices directly when they are generated by perfectly competitive markets - markets that are not distorted by monopoly, monopsony, taxes or regulations.

26p muaxuan102 21-02-2013 68 9   Download

In the preceding chapters we assumed that each $ of net benefits of same value irrespective of sub-referent group . Atemporal – how income (and income changes) distributed among individuals or groups at present; ie. within present generation

34p muaxuan102 21-02-2013 47 3   Download

The observed market rate of interest is the sum of the utility discount factor (reflecting impatience) and the utility growth factor (reflecting diminishing marginal utility of consumption).

29p muaxuan102 21-02-2013 57 6   Download

Where the possible values could have significant impact on project’s profitability, a decision will involve taking a risk. In some situations, degree of risk can be objectively determined. Estimating probability of an event usually involves subjectivity.

15p muaxuan102 21-02-2013 66 9   Download

The market prices of project inputs or outputs will NOT change if: - the inputs or outputs are TRADED ie. price is determined in world markets) - the project is SMALL relative to the size of the economy in which is undertaken

25p muaxuan102 21-02-2013 62 8   Download

When we do a benefit-cost analysis, we have to value a range of commodities which are either inputs to or outputs of the project. Some of these commodities are traded (i.e. can be bought or sold on international markets) and some are non-traded (are not bought or sold in international markets but are only traded domestically).

28p muaxuan102 21-02-2013 71 8   Download

- it is the group whose net benefits are relevant to the decision-maker who commissioned the SBCA. - all members of a social group, for example, pensioners, native peoples etc.

18p muaxuan102 21-02-2013 65 8   Download

Measures the economic efficiency of the project: if net benefit is positive, the project is a more efficient allocation of resources than the alternative (the world “without” the project).

24p muaxuan102 21-02-2013 75 8   Download

To derive private cash flow, we begin by calculating overall project cash flow.The private cash flow is the cash flow on the investor’s own funds or ‘equity’.

33p muaxuan102 21-02-2013 62 7   Download

We have been assuming that if your income stream is Y1,Y2, your consumption stream must be the same. And if you invest, your consumption stream must be C1,C2. However, by lending or borrowing at the market rate of interest, you can choose any point on the net present value line through A (if you don’t invest), or through B (if you do invest).

25p muaxuan102 21-02-2013 70 11   Download

Although we use the term “cash flow”, the dollar values used might not be the same as the actual cash amounts. In some instances, actual ‘market prices’ do not reflect the true value of the project’s input or output.

32p muaxuan102 21-02-2013 71 7   Download

“A systematic framework for economic appraisal of proposed public and private projects from a public interest point of view” – based on Benefit-Cost Analysis: Financial and Economic Appraisal using Spreadsheets by H. Campbell & R. Brown (Cambridge University Press, 2003)

17p muaxuan102 21-02-2013 63 3   Download

Analyzing project risks by making mechanical trial and error changes to forecast values of selected variables.Analyzing the risks of investment projects, by changing the values of forecasted variables. Finding the values of particular variables which give the project a Breakeven NPV of zero.

13p muaxuan102 21-02-2013 56 7   Download

In this chapter, risk is accounted for by (1) applying a discount rate commensurate with the riskiness of the cash flows, and (2), by using a certainty equivalent factor In chapter 8, risk is accounted for by evaluating the project using sensitivity and breakeven analysis.

14p muaxuan102 21-02-2013 83 9   Download