Project risk analysis

We have seen how in conducting efficiency benefit-cost analysis we often use market prices, either directly or indirectly, to value or cost project outputs or inputs. We use market prices directly when they are generated by perfectly competitive markets - markets that are not distorted by monopoly, monopsony, taxes or regulations.

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Bài giảng "Lập và phân tích dự án cho kỹ sư - Chương 8: Rủi ro và bất định trong phân tích dự án" cung cấp cho người học các kiến thức: Tổng quan rủi ro và bất định, phân tích độ nhạy (sensitivity analysis), phân tích rủi ro (risk analysis) bằng giải tích. Mời các bạn cùng tham khảo.

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This work aimed to study and analysis the various risk associated with different environment. The selected method consists of market risks and operating risks.

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The two projects have the same economic impact, in terms of generating income for factors of production and inducing additional expenditures, but the hospital has a higher net present value than the hole in the ground.

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Where the possible values could have significant impact on project’s profitability, a decision will involve taking a risk. In some situations, degree of risk can be objectively determined. Estimating probability of an event usually involves subjectivity.

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- it is the group whose net benefits are relevant to the decision-maker who commissioned the SBCA. - all members of a social group, for example, pensioners, native peoples etc.

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“A systematic framework for economic appraisal of proposed public and private projects from a public interest point of view” – based on Benefit-Cost Analysis: Financial and Economic Appraisal using Spreadsheets by H. Campbell & R. Brown (Cambridge University Press, 2003)

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Analyzing project risks by making mechanical trial and error changes to forecast values of selected variables.Analyzing the risks of investment projects, by changing the values of forecasted variables. Finding the values of particular variables which give the project a Breakeven NPV of zero.

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In this chapter, risk is accounted for by (1) applying a discount rate commensurate with the riskiness of the cash flows, and (2), by using a certainty equivalent factor In chapter 8, risk is accounted for by evaluating the project using sensitivity and breakeven analysis.

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The ideal investment decision making technique is Net Present Value. N P V measures the equivalent present wealth contributed by the investment. NPV is given in NPV -- relates directly to the firm’s goal of wealth maximization -- employs the time value of money -- can be used in all types of investments -- can be adjusted to incorporate risk.

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