Giải pháp nào đối với vấn đề nhập siêu

^<br /> DIEN DAN TRAG DGI<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> GIAI PHAP NAO DOI UCfl VAN DE NHAP SIEU?<br /> <br /> N G U Y E N DUY NGHIA<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> giESEEa'B'gEisraEiBErGgroE'aaigraijigMEraeiii'^^^<br /> au nhieu thap ky leo thang va didn bien that thddng, nhap sieu<br /> In our economy, long<br /> lasting trade deficit Is attrib-<br /> uted to the heavy depend-<br /> ence on external factors,<br /> unsustainable and volatile<br /> S (NS) giai doan 2001-2005 bat dau trd nen lang dju vdi ty le<br /> NS/xuat kha'u (XK) la 1 7,7%. Trddc chied hddng tich cQc dd, bddc<br /> v I o giai doan 2006-2010, d n d n xua't kha'u - nhap kha'u dQdc ky vpng<br /> se can bang ke tQ sau nam 201 0. Tuy nhien, didn bien trong sud't 4 nam<br /> external trade sector, while<br /> import has complicated qua, dac biet la ngay trong t h i n g 1/2010 , va dQ b i o NS d nam 2010<br /> developments. khdng dQpc nhQ ky vpng. Giai doan 2006-201 0, NS Qdc tinh se cao hon<br /> In the article below, by<br /> analyzing 6 management so vdi giai doan 2001-2005.<br /> measures at macro level to Bang: Nhap sieu giai doan 2006-2010<br /> control Import and restrain<br /> trade deficit In 2010 (Includ- \ ^ Nam Ke<br /> ing controlling Import growth Thang<br /> rate; restraining import of 2006 2007 2008 2009 hoach<br /> 1/2010<br /> consumer goods through Ch? tieu ^ ^ ^ 2010<br /> administrative and financial<br /> and monetary tools; promot- Kim ngach nhnp sieu<br /> ing trade agreement signing; 5,1 12,.S 17,9 12,3 12,1 1,3<br /> getting Import - export bal- (ty USD)<br /> ance with foreign markets;<br /> constraining Import of foreign Ty le NS/XK (%) 13,0 25,6 28,7 21,6 20,0 26,.5<br /> invested sector; stimulating<br /> Import substitution domestic Ngudn: Cac bao cao cua Bd Cdng Thuang.<br /> production, the author high- Nguyen n h i n s l u xa dan den dnh trang tren I I do nen kinh te<br /> lights not truly convincing<br /> and effective points, at the nQdc ta edn phu thuoc q u i nhieu vao d c yeu to'ben n g o l i , nen ngoai<br /> same time proposes several thQdng tiem an yeu td' thieu ben vQng v l de bj tdn thQdng, trong khi<br /> recommendations on trade<br /> dd, tinh hinh nhap khau (NK) dien bien rd't phdc tap. Theo dd, d c<br /> deficit control. Accordingly,<br /> general direction Is to adopt g i i i phap quan ly vi md nham kiem s o l t NK, kiem che NS khi bddc<br /> flexible measures to control vao nam 2010 edn chda thdc sQ thuyet phuc. C I c g i i i p h I p nay (cd<br /> Import, that do not violate<br /> International practice and are the chia thanh 6 nhdm chinh) bao gdm: mpf la, kiem solt de mdc<br /> not passive. Based on this tang NK khdng cao hdn mdc tang XK; hai la, kiem solt va ban che<br /> general direction, each sec-<br /> tor, level and localities should cho vay NK dd'i vdi hang hda tied dung (nhd dtd, dien thoai di<br /> seek their own solutions In ddng...) thdng qua d c cdng cu hanh c h i n h , t i i c h i n h , tien te; ba la.<br /> both short and long run.<br /> <br /> giagg^asgi^agaaaa'er iMttihU'Em ^j^i.'aiL'o.'pjag.isfaaBfisrairoiggigBagBgaa^^ ' " T h a n g 1/2010. NS len tdi 1.3 ty USD. vol ty 1^ NS/XK la 26,5%.<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> THONG TIN S. DLl BAG KINH TE - XA HOI So 52 (4.2010)<br /> 40<br /> tang cddng ky ket d c hiep djnh thddng mai song phQPng va da gil, tdy nhien, khi NK thinh<br /> phQdng, hinh thanh d c khu mau djch tQ do, tao dieu kien thuan Ipi pham p h i i t r i gia cao hdn, rut<br /> cho XK, ddng thdi, tich cQc d m g i i i p h I p g i l m NK nham tien tdi can cuoc van rdi vao tinh trang NS.<br /> bang thQdng mai giQa Viet Nam vdi d c nQdc; bdn la, tang cQdng Ngdpc lai, khi thj trddng the gidi<br /> kiem soat NK trddc khi thdng quan ddi vdi h I n g hda thuoc Danh muc t r i m lang, g i l NK re, song khi XK<br /> hang tieu dung phai nop thue trddc khi thdng quan hang hda, Danh lai ban vdi gia thap d i n den ket<br /> muc h I n g hda p h i i kiem tra n h l nQdc ve cha't iQpng va Danh muc cue v i n p h i i NS. C l hai tinh<br /> hang hda p h i i kiem tra an toan ve sinh thQc pha'm; nam la, kiem soat hudng nay deu ddpc minh chdng<br /> viec NK cua d c doanh nghiep cd vdn dau tQ nQdc ngoli (FDD, d i m rd rang trong hai nam 2008 va<br /> bao dung khdi iQPng va thdi han tam nhap t i i xuat cua d c dQ I n , 2009.<br /> khuyen khich sd dung hang trong nQdc thay the h I n g NK va sau la, Nhd vay, de han che NK, g i l m<br /> day manh s i n xua't hang hda trong nQdc (cac loai nguyen lieu, cac ty le NS, can hddng vao nhdm<br /> mat hang phu trd....) thay the hang NK. hang hda thiet bj, m I y mdc,<br /> 1. Ve kiem soat ty le tang NK nguyen, nhien, phu lieu, hien<br /> Cd the thi'y, NK p h i i ddng thdi ganh hai nhiem VLI quan trpng, dd chiem dai bp phan kim ngach<br /> I I phuc vu s i n xul't, tieu dung trong nQdc va phuc vu s i n xul't hang XK. NK. Tuy nhien, trong thdi ky hau<br /> Neu chi khdng che mdc tang NK thi'p hdn mdc tang XK, lieu da du de khung holng, viec han che NK<br /> g i l m NS hay chQa? nhdm h I n g nay se mau thuan vdi<br /> Do XK tach rdi NK nen khdng biet lieu viec kiem soat td'c dp tang muc tieu hdi phuc va phat trien<br /> NK thap hdn td'c dp tang XK se dQdc thQc hien b l n g d c h nao? Ddn cd, kinh te. Trong bdi d n h Viet Nam<br /> nha nhap khau d td se khdng quan tam den viec xua't kha'u gao. Cdng da md cda thj trddng, neu chung<br /> ty xua't kha'u thuy s i n khdng quan tam tdi viec nhap kha'u cho cdng ta qua chan chd se tao cd hpi cho<br /> trinh n l y , hang muc kia. Theo luat djnh, mpi td chdc, c l n h i n deu cd dc nhl cung cap nddc ngoli<br /> the tham gia hoat ddng xul't nhap kha'u vdi muc dich thu ve doanh sd, tham nhap v l viec kiem solt NK<br /> Ipi nhuan va khdng quan tam den van de NS. cang trd nen lung tung.<br /> Nddc ta chu yeu XK s i n pha'm thd, h I n g gia cdng che bien, trong Viec kiem solt vT md ve NK<br /> khi NK chu yeu I I d c s i n pham tinh, mang tinh gia cdng, lap rap, chu yeu dda tren c I c so lieu thdng<br /> nen sd bien dpng cua g i l d thj trddng, dd theo chieu nao, cung deu ke, tuy nhien, cho den nay, b l n g<br /> g l y b i t Ipi cho Viet Nam. G i l the gidi tang ndng khien cho XK dddc thdng ke td ngudn cua H I i quan<br /> con rl't ngheo n i n . Theo danh<br /> muc d c ddng thue, sd iQPng d c<br /> mat hang NK len tdi hang ngIn,<br /> song b l n g thd'ng ke phuc vu cdng<br /> t i c q u I n ly vT md hien chi cd 44<br /> mat hang va dQpc chia t h i n h 3<br /> nhdm, dd la: nhdm hang can NK,<br /> nhdm h I n g NK can kiem solt va<br /> nhdm h I n g han che NK. Trong<br /> nhdm hang NK can kiem solt,<br /> nhieu mat h I n g chda dQdc liet ke<br /> rd v l dQpc gom thanh tieu muc<br /> cac mat hang khac. Cu the, nam<br /> 2008, kim ngach NK cua d c mat<br /> hang k h I c dat khoang 5,2 ty USD,<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> So 52 (4.2010) THONG TIN S. DU BAO KINH TE - XA HQI 41<br /> DIEN DAN TRAG DGI<br /> <br /> chiem ty trpng 52,3% cua nhdm Hon nQa, mac du la nQdc kem p h I t trien, nhQng ngQdi tieu dung<br /> hang NK d n kiem solt. C I c con Viet Nam dang chi tieu rl't nhieu cho d c mat hang NK xa xi. Hang det<br /> sd tQPng dng cua nam 2009 I I 4,1 may Viet Nam cung gap khdng it khd khan ngay chinh tai thi trQdng npi<br /> ty USD v l 63%. Theo dd, viec dia.<br /> phan tich dnh hinh NK, NS con Them vao dd, viec kiem soat qua thanh t o l n tai n g I n h I n g cung<br /> chung chung, chQa sau v l chQa khdng de dang trong dieu kien nhieu thanh p h I n kinh te tham gia<br /> p h I n I n h dung dnh hinh vao hoat dpng n g I n h I n g , trong d d , rieng khd'i thQdng mai cd phan<br /> 2. Ve kiem soat NK hang tieu cd den 49 ddn vj v l tinh trang dd la hda da "di c a n " v I o nhieu ITnh<br /> dung thong qua cac cong cy vQc.<br /> hanh chinh, tai chinh, tien te Viec tang cQdng kiem soat chat iQdng an toan, ve sinh thQc pham<br /> H I n g tieu dung hien chi chiem vdi mang iQdi kiem tra rpng khap nhQng chQa dat hieu qua cao.<br /> ty trpng nhd trong tdng kim ngach NhQ vay, trong dieu hanh c I n l l m rd viec se gidi han d mot sd mat<br /> NK, theo dd, viec kiem soat va hang hay kiem soat tl't d , ddng thdi khdng the nay cho, mai d m hoac<br /> han che cho vay de g i l m NK han che bang gil'y phep, ke d bang gil'y phep tQ dpng vdi thdi han<br /> nhdm hang nay khdng tac dpng d p phep linh hoat. SQ khdng ddt k h o l t se d i n den dnh trang sIch<br /> nhieu den van de NS. Viec kiem nhieu, phien h i , gay khd khan cho doanh nghiep, lam tang g i l thanh<br /> solt va han che NK cung I I dieu s i n phl'm.<br /> rl't khd bdi trj gia nhdm hang nay 3. Ve cac hiep dinh thuong mai<br /> tha'p trong khi danh muc d c mat Viet Nam da ky ket h I n g tram hiep dinh song phQdng va-da phQdng<br /> hang lai rl't dai. Ddng thdi, con vdi nhieu nQdc tren the gidi, tuy nhien, ben canh viec md cda cho hang<br /> tdn tai nhieu "nghjch ly" trong Viet Nam XK sang d c nQdc, Viet Nam cung p h i i md cda cho b l n g hda<br /> hoat ddng ngoai thddng nhd: mac nQdc n g o l i . Do k h i nang canh tranh cua hang hda XK Viet Nam edn<br /> du la mot nddc ndng nghiep tha'p nen viec vQdn ra thj trQdng qud'c te edn nhieu ban che, trong khi<br /> nhdng Viet Nam lai NK rl't nhied dd, do hang rao tQ ve edn thQa mdng, chQa du sdc ngan d n , nen nhieu<br /> mat hang ndng s i n . XK gao cda mat h I n g ngoai nhap dd bd v I o nQdc ta, dac biet la iQdng hang hda tdn<br /> Viet Nam ddng thd hai the gidi kho trong thdi ky khung h o l n g se dQdc d c nQdc tang cQdng XK v I o<br /> nhdng hien gao cda Thai Lan, D i i nQdc ta.<br /> Loan lai chiem Imh nhieu diem 4. Ve goc do can bang xua't - nhap vdi cac thi trUdng<br /> cung cap lddng thdc. Kim ngach Viet Nam xul't sieu vdi d c dd'i t i c la M y , A n h , DQc, Oxtrlylia...<br /> NK d c mat h I n g rau, q u i v I o nhQng lai NS vdi d c nQdc c h i u A, ASEAN. Theo dd, de giam NS, can<br /> Viet Nam nam 2009 len den gan lud y den d c thj trQdng nay. Do k b I nang canh tranh kem, hang rao<br /> 300 trieu USD, trong dd nhieu tQ ve thQa mong, nen ben canh NS, Viet Nam con p h i i ddi mat vdi viec<br /> nhl't I I td Trung Qud'c, T h i i Lan. NK nhieu cdng nghe lac hau, sao chep, trong khi khdng tiep can dQdc<br /> Vdi bd bien dai 3.000 km, nhieu vdi cdng nghe ngudn, cdng nghe mdi (chu yeu td d c nen kinh te chau<br /> ngay n i n g nhdng nam 2009, Viet Au, My ....).<br /> Nam da NK den 400.000 tl'n<br /> Viec trdng cay v I o d c khu kinh te' cda khl'u, khu thddng mai tQ do<br /> mudi va d l y khdng p h i i la nam<br /> (gpi chung la khu thQPng mai tQ do) de g i l m NS cung rl't khd thQc hien.<br /> dau tien Viet Nam NK mat h I n g<br /> Cd the thi'y, mat Ipi cua d c khu thQdng mai tQ do I I thuc day XK nhQng<br /> nly. Binh Thuan, Ninh ThuIn,<br /> mat hang pham cap binh d i n , song rl't khd de bu lai phan bl't cap ve<br /> K h i n h Hda la nhdng dia phddng<br /> NK va NS. C5 khu vQc phia Bac, theo quy djnh cua phia Trung Qud'c,<br /> trong dQa lay hat ndi tieng d<br /> h I n g XK cua Viet Nam dQdc chi djnh di qua mot sd cda khl'u nhat<br /> nQdc, song hien tai 9 0 % hat dQa<br /> djnh'-'. Mdc phi nhap d n h cung dQdc thay ddi theo mua vu vdi che dp<br /> tren thj trQdng cd xua't xd td Trung<br /> Qud'c. '" Cao su ch! daoc quo cOo khdu Mong Cai hogc Luc Ldm, thuy hai sdn chi dagc quo cCra khdu<br /> Mong Cdi, hoa qud tUOi chi dUOc quo cCia khdu Lao Cai hoOc Long San.<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> 42 THONG TIN S. DL/ BAG KINH TE - XA HOI So 52 (4.2010)<br /> kiem solt luc long, luc chat va hay thay ddi, g l y rat nhieu khd khan hang hda s i n xua't trong nQdc<br /> cho d c nha XK Viet Nam. Trong khi dd, hang hda NK lai t r i n vao nQdc chda d i p dng ddpc h o l n toan yeu<br /> ta qua nhieu neo dQdng, ngd n g l c h va it bi kiem tra. d khu vQc mien cau "thay the hang nhap khau".<br /> Tay, ddng xe chd h I n g chay d i i tQ Khu thQdng mai Lao Bio theo dddng Vi v l y , day la mot trong d c dpng<br /> sd 9 vao npi dja cho thi'y lddng hang ngoai nhap vao nQdc ta qda khu CP thuc day tam ly dung hang<br /> cda khau n l y la ra't Idn. d khu vQc phia Tay Nam, tinh hinh cung khdng ngoai.<br /> dQdc d i thien. Vi v l y , neu cd phat trien them d c khu thddng mai tQ 7. Mgt sd de xuat, kien nghi<br /> do cung rat khd de d i thien dnh hinh NS. Trddc tinh hinh tren, djnh<br /> 5. Ve kiem soat NK cua khu vi/c co vdn dau tUnUdc ngoai va vien hddng chung ddi vdi van de NS la<br /> trg quoc te p h i i cd bien phap kiem solt NK<br /> Thu hut FDI I I rat can thiet, song viec d c n h l d I u tQ nQdc ngoai linh hoat, khdng vi pham thdng le<br /> tang g i l d c thiet bj, may mdc NK vao Viet Nam khdng nhQng lam tang qud'c te song cung khdng thu<br /> kim ngach NK mot each g i l tao ma edn lam tang ty le gdp vd'n cua ben dpng. Ddng thdi, tQ g i i i phIp<br /> nQdc ngoai trong lien doanh, ha thap vj the cua ben Viet Nam. Thu hut chung, mdi n g l n h , mdi cap, mdi<br /> vd'n hd trd phat trien chinh thdc (ODA) cung ra't can thiet, nhQng de cd dja phddng c I n p h i i td dm ra<br /> dddc vdn thddng kem theo dieu kien cua cac qud'c gia hd trd cung cap nhQng bien p h I p cho rieng minh,<br /> m I y mdc, thiet bi cdng tnnh, chuyen gia... vdi g i l thanh va chi phi rl't bao gdm c l g i i i p h I p d i i han va<br /> cao, l l m tang NK v l g i l trj thQc te cua ddng vdn vay bj g i l m . Viec g i i i phap tQc thdi.<br /> danh muc hang hda, g i l d , tien dp NK, t i i xul't deu do phia nQdc ngoai - Chan chinh cdng t i c theo ddi<br /> quyet dinh se khien cho viec kiem tra, g i l m sit NK cua khdi n l y de dnh hinh NK bang he thd'ng sd<br /> quIn ly NK, kiem che NS rat khd khan. lieu thdng ke h o l n chinh, chi tiet,<br /> 6. Ve day manh san xuat hang trong nUdc thay the hang NK bao q u i t nham p h I n anh tQdng<br /> Cd the tha'y, y tQdng day manh s i n xua't hang hda trong nQdc thay dd'i day du bQc tranh ve NK, giup<br /> the h I n g NK hoan t o l n phu hpp vdi chu trQpng "NgQdi Viet Nam Qu d c nha q u I n ly dQa ra dQpc d c<br /> tien dung h I n g Viet Nam". Tuy nhien, trong bdi d n h hdi n h I p va kinh chinh sach, bien p h I p dieu hanh<br /> te ngly d n g p h I t trien, hang s i n xua't trong nQdc cung p h i i dQpc che NK thich hpp.<br /> t i c bang d c thiet bi, phu tung, nguyen lieu nhap kha'u. Do vay, de thQc - Nhanh chdng thiet lap hang<br /> hien y tQdng nay c I n tang cQdng NK nguyen, nhien, vat lieu, phu tung, rao tQ ve vdi cac tieu chi ky thuat<br /> d l y chuyen, b i n quyen cdng nghe tien tien. Ben canh dd, chl't iQpng cu the, kiem solt dQdc h I n g hda<br /> nhap khl'u vao nQdc ta vdi sQ nhl't<br /> ) ••' q u I n trong ap dung cd che, chinh<br /> 1 ••' sIch, t r i n h x l y ra tinh trang ddn<br /> •i- \ -•' vj n l y cho, cd quan kia cam,<br /> •••<br /> • « • 1' "•<br /> •!t<br /> "• khdng ddt khoat g l y thiet hai<br /> chung.<br /> 4-«'<br /> 1(1<br /> -k.<br /> It,<br /> -• ,T»i . - Bdtri dpi ngu d n bp trQc tiep<br /> •\<br /> thQa hanh viec kiem solt hang<br /> NK cd du nang iQc, tinh t h i n<br /> t r i c h nhiem, nam vQng cd che,<br /> t r i n h vi thieu hieu biet, nhan thdc<br /> khdng gidng nhau, hoac vi Ipi ich<br /> d n h i n m l vd tinh hay hQu y tiep<br /> tay cho viec hang NK tQ do "hanh<br /> quan" vao nQdc t a . n<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> So 52 (4.2010) THONG TIN & DU BAG KINH TE - XA HOI 43<br />