Nhitng thay dSi chinh sich ngo^i thuang Trung QuSc.<br />
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i l§i<br />
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CHINH TRI - KINH TE- XA HOI<br />
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NHilffi I M Viil (HINH SlklllKiOfliTIKlONG<br />
I W m QOj( SW NldNQ HOillN Till (llfelH lOM CJO<br />
HA PHUONG<br />
Vien Nghien cdu Trung Qudc<br />
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I. KHAI QUAT TINH HINH NGOAI (XNK) cua Trung Quoc da co tang tnfdng<br />
THUONG TRUNG Q u 6 c SAU KHUNG difdng, dat 9,2% (Xem bieu do 1). Theo so<br />
HOANG TAI CHINH TOAN CAU lieu cua To chute thifdng mai the gidi<br />
(WTO), ty trong cua xuat k h l u Trung<br />
1. Thanh tmi Quoc trong xuat khau the gidi tang tif<br />
8,9% nam 2008 len 9,6% nam 2009, vUdt<br />
Cung nhu cac nen kinh te khac tren the<br />
qua Diic tr6 thanh nvfdc xui't khau diing<br />
gidi, nen kinh te bung no cua Trung Quoc<br />
d i u the gidi trong boi canh suy thoai kinh<br />
(Trung Quoc) cung khong the miln dich<br />
te toan ciu^^^' Miic giam xuat khau nam<br />
vdi khung hoang. I i n h vile chiu nhieu tac<br />
2009 cua Trung Quoc thap hdn miic giam<br />
dong nhat la ngoai thUdng, dac biet la xua't k h l u toan clu 7 diem phan tram,<br />
trong 2 nam 2008 va 2009. Khung hoang miic giam nhap k h l u tha'p hdn miic giam<br />
lam 3 nen kinh te 16n, cung la 3 doi tac nhap k h l u toan cau 13 diem p h l n tram^^^<br />
thiidng mai chinh cua Trung Quoc la My,<br />
EU, Nhat di vao suy thoai toan dien. Nhu Nam 2010, ngoai thifdng cua Trung<br />
cau ben ngoai giam dSn den suy giam xui't Quoc da khoi phuc lai miic trifdc khi xay<br />
khau, mot nhan to' quan trong trong "co xe ra khung hoang tai chinh quoc te. Theo so'<br />
tam ma" (xui't kh^u, tieu diing, d i u t\i) loi li§u th6'ng ke cua Tdng cue Hai quan<br />
keo tang tnlcing cua kinh ti Trung Quoc Trung Quo'e, nam 2010 tdng kim ngach<br />
noi chung va ngoai thiidng Trung Quoc noi XNK cua Trung Quoc dat 2.927,76 ty USD,<br />
rieng. Tuy nhien, sau nhieu quy giam tang 34,7% so vdi nam 2009, trong do xua't<br />
manh, den quy IV nam 2009, co the noi k h l u la 1.577,9 ty USD, tang 31,3%, nhap<br />
ngoai thifdng Trung Quoc da khac phuc k h l u 1.394,8 ty USD, tang 38,7%. Thang<br />
difdc kho khan, nha'c chan ra khoi khung dif thifdng mai dat 183,1 ty USD, giam<br />
hoang, tdng kim ngach xu^'t nhap kh^u 6,4%<br />
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NGHIEN CUIU TRUNG QUCfC s o 11(123) - 2 0 1 1<br />
HA PHl/ONG<br />
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Biiu dd 1: TJNH HJNH T A N G TRUdNG XNK NGOAI THUONG TRUNG QUOC CAC T H A N G NAM 2009<br />
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Trim tri^u USD<br />
%<br />
1400 80<br />
-|<br />
1200 60<br />
1000<br />
re<br />
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I<br />
40<br />
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1<br />
800<br />
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I<br />
20<br />
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H<br />
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I<br />
600 0<br />
1 > .1 1 - _ _ •/ • ! .* , . -:.<<br />
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I<br />
400 F — ^- -20<br />
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I<br />
200 -40<br />
-60<br />
T l U n c l Thine 2 Thin* 3 Thine 4 T h i n * 3 TKiin 6 Thin« 7 T h i n « 8 T hin«9TKinc 10 T h i n e 11 T h i n * 12<br />
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I lYIC I INK » T i c a« tine XK. T i e d * t i n e NK<br />
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Nguon: http://zhs.mofcom.gov.cn/aarticle/Nocategory/201004/20100406888239.html<br />
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Thd tu la viec Trung Qudc la "cong<br />
2. Nhurng v^'n de ton tai<br />
xifdng cua the gidi" khong con phu hdp sau<br />
Ben canh thanh tUu dat difdc, Trung khung hoang.<br />
Quoc ciing tha'y difdc nhiing 16 hdng trong<br />
Ben canh do, cac yeu to^ khac tvf ca ben<br />
chinh sach ngoai thifdng khi khung hoang<br />
ngoai va trong nifdc tac dong nhil khung<br />
xay ra.<br />
hoang nd cong chau Au, dong da't b Nhat<br />
ThU nhdt la sil phat trien khong hai<br />
Ban, bien dong chinh tri cl Bac Phi Trung<br />
hoa cua "co xe tam ma" Trung Quo'e chu<br />
Dong, ty gia nhan dan te tang... ciing lam<br />
yeu diia vao xua't k h l u va d i u tif de phat<br />
anh hifdng den toe do tang trifdng ngoai<br />
trien ngoai thifdng con tieu dung chUa<br />
thifdng. Do d6, Trung Qudc can dieu chinh<br />
difdc chli trong diing mifc. Ngay ca khi thu<br />
kdt ca'u ngoai thifdng, thay ddi mo hinh<br />
nhap tang thi tieu diing cQng chtfa tang<br />
nhieu ma dil trii lai tang len. Thi trifdng phat trien cho phii hdp vdi tinh hinh mdi.<br />
trong nifdc chifa dUdc khai thac diing mtic. H. N H C N G THAY D 6 I CHINH SACH<br />
Thd hai la can can thifdng mai con NGOAI THUONG SAU KHUNG HOANG.<br />
nghieng Idch, xua't sieu nhieu, miic do phia<br />
thuoc ben ngoai con cao, thi trifdng chifa Co the tha'y, sau khung hoang, tinh<br />
da dang nen khi c6 khung hoang phai chiu hinh v l n ra't phiic tap, tdt xa'u dan xen,<br />
anh hifdng ldn, vai tro cua nhap k h l u nhieu nhan td ba't ldi con tiem In. Khiing<br />
chifa cao. hoang viia la thach thiic nhifng ciing chiia<br />
Thd ba la cd clu san p h i m xua't k h l u dilng nhieu cd hoi. Moi cupc khung hoang<br />
chifa hdp ly, san xua't cac mat hang co gia deu nhif mot bo loc khdng Id, gan di nhQng<br />
tri tha'p, tap trung nhieu lao dong se bi gi khong hdp ly, chon viii nhiing ^ khong<br />
thua thiet. Sd lifdng v l n difdc coi trong hi§u qua